LW Colby Barlow - Owen Sound Attack, OHL (2023, 18th, WPG)

[CybershadeEDM]

His offense has really slowed down from last season. What's going on?

 

[Tanknation]

His offense has really slowed down from last season. What's going on?

Old man Barlow.

 

[Michoulicious]

Old man Barlow.

He's already in the back nine of his career at this point.

 

[PensFan101]

His offense has really slowed down from last season. What's going on?

He's been hurt, and currently out of the lineup week to week with some kind of upper body injury. Just my speculation but he was hurt pretty bad in the playoffs last season, played hurt at the U18's, and was injured (and definitely sick) while in Jets camp. He's already shown he's not averse to playing injured for long stretches.

Since he's been back, he's looked limited, and that explains the goal - assist ratio. He's still good enough to get that shot off and score goals, but he hasn't been himself in any other facet of the game. Owen Sound is always tight lipped about injuries but for now I'd chalk it up to he hasn't been healthy this season.

No timetable currently for his return.

 

[Tanknation]

 

[LesCanadiens]

D year: 1.24 PPG
D+1 year: 1.18 PPG

Seems like a bust in the making. Is there any good reason to account for this very poor D+1 showing?

 

[jgimp]

D year: 1.24 PPG
D+1 year: 1.18 PPG

Seems like a bust in the making. Is there any good reason to account for this very poor D+1 showing?

Missed a bunch of time and he is/was playing injured. I had also heard through a source that there may be an internal issue with the team, grain of salt though.
He’s starting to come around and a bit early to call him a bust what, 9 months after he’s drafted?

 

[LesCanadiens]

Missed a bunch of time and he is/was playing injured. I had also heard through a source that there may be an internal issue with the team, grain of salt though.
He’s starting to come around and a bit early to call him a bust what, 9 months after he’s drafted?

Interesting. Even if his PPG were the same as last year it is usually a big deal as D+1 first rounders playing in Junior are expected to show a significant bump in production. So when you see a fairly large decrease in PPG, "bust in the making" isn't outlandish, no?

Playing injured and other factors like that can certainly account for some of this...but it's still quite a surprise for me to say the least. I liked him in his D year. Just saw his name pop-up in a trade proposal thread, had forgotten about him, actually. So thus curiosity led me here. I know stats don't always tell the whole story, so thanks for the insight.

 

[cg98]

Interesting. Even if his PPG were the same as last year it is usually a big deal as D+1 first rounders playing in Junior are expected to show a significant bump in production. So when you see a fairly large decrease in PPG, "bust in the making" isn't outlandish, no?

Playing injured and other factors like that can certainly account for some of this...but it's still quite a surprise for me to say the least. I liked him in his D year. Just saw his name pop-up in a trade proposal thread, had forgotten about him, actually. So thus curiosity led me here. I know stats don't always tell the whole story, so thanks for the insight.

He has 11 points in his last 4 games. Its a little too early and rather, quite rich to assume and call a 19 year old in his d+1 a bust after playing through the first half of the season injured.

 

[Oscar The Grouch]

He's cooked.

 

[LesCanadiens]

He has 11 points in his last 4 games. Its a little too early and rather, quite rich to assume and call a 19 year old in his d+1 a bust after playing through the first half of the season injured.

It's "quite rich" to say "seems like a bust in the making"? Not in the real world. And that is precisely why I came to this thread. IE, to gain further insight. No need to be so defensive.

 

[jgimp]

Interesting. Even if his PPG were the same as last year it is usually a big deal as D+1 first rounders playing in Junior are expected to show a significant bump in production. So when you see a fairly large decrease in PPG, "bust in the making" isn't outlandish, no?

Playing injured and other factors like that can certainly account for some of this...but it's still quite a surprise for me to say the least. I liked him in his D year. Just saw his name pop-up in a trade proposal thread, had forgotten about him, actually. So thus curiosity led me here. I know stats don't always tell the whole story, so thanks for the insight.

Less than a year from his draft? Yeah, it’s outlandish! There are so many variables that can account for a players numbers to skew. Linemates, coaching, new systems. On top of that, Owen Sound isn’t exactly a powerhouse. He’s also a pure shooter, best in his class IMO. He could maybe be working on his defensive side of the game as well as other components of his game.
We see this many times with defensive prospects for example, especially from the OHL. Many purely offensive driven point producing D men regress in points simply because they try to round out their game. It doesn’t mean they are showing bust, they are simply trying to hone their craft.

 

[LesCanadiens]

Less than a year from his draft? Yeah, it’s outlandish! There are so many variables that can account for a players numbers to skew. Linemates, coaching, new systems, on top of that, Owen Sound isn’t exactly a powerhouse. He’s also a pure shooter, best in his class IMO. He could maybe be working on his defensive side of the game as well as other components of his game.
We see this many times with defensive prospects for example, especially from the OHL. Many purely offensive driven point producing D men regress in points simply because they try to round out their game. It doesn’t mean they are showing bust, they are simply trying to hone their craft.

I agree with everything as a possibility in your post. Except the "it's outlandish" part. Source? Over 50 years of watching hockey. You guys are just being outlandishly defensive. There is no world in which a 18 OA pick goes back to junior and drops in production vs domination in junior by a convincing fashion and saying maybe he could be a bust is sooooooo "outlandish". I got the insight I was looking for. I'm not interested in a circular argument based on hurt feelings rather than respectful objectivity. Ciao for now.

 

[cg98]

I agree with everything as a possibility in your post. Except the "it's outlandish" part. Source? Over 50 years of watching hockey. You guys are just being outlandishly defensive. There is no world in which a 18 OA pick goes back to junior and drops in production vs domination in junior by a convincing fashion and saying maybe he could be a bust is sooooooo "outlandish". I got the insight I was looking for. I'm not interested in a circular argument based on hurt feelings rather than respectful objectivity. Ciao for now.

Sounds like youre annoyed by the actual logic and reasoning that reflects the reality of such a players season and cant be bothered to bring an actual credible argument. Whose feelings are hurt?

Dont let the door hit you on the way out

 

[jgimp]

I agree with everything as a possibility in your post. Except the "it's outlandish" part. Source? Over 50 years of watching hockey. You guys are just being outlandishly defensive. There is no world in which a 18 OA pick goes back to junior and drops in production vs domination in junior by a convincing fashion and saying maybe he could be a bust is sooooooo "outlandish". I got the insight I was looking for. I'm not interested in a circular argument based on hurt feelings rather than respectful objectivity. Ciao for now.

Sounds like your the one with hurt feelings. You asked a question, and assumed that he “seems like a bust in the making”. Your words, your assumption. We just gave you some insight as to why his stats are down and it’s obviously apparent that you could care less as it doesn’t suit your narrative.

 

[Atoyot]

I agree with everything as a possibility in your post. Except the "it's outlandish" part. Source? Over 50 years of watching hockey. You guys are just being outlandishly defensive. There is no world in which a 18 OA pick goes back to junior and drops in production vs domination in junior by a convincing fashion and saying maybe he could be a bust is sooooooo "outlandish". I got the insight I was looking for. I'm not interested in a circular argument based on hurt feelings rather than respectful objectivity. Ciao for now.

You made a statement, then asked if the statement was outlandish, then when you were told yeah, without context it kind of is, you went straight to "I was just asking questions you guys are so defensive". You seem a lot more defensive than anybody in this exchange.

 

[Artorius Horus T]

i think those comments were valid at the time, he wasn't producing then, he is producing now.
bust comments are not valid rn.

Since January 4th, 10+7=17 in 12 games
Since December 30th, 12+8=20 in 14 games

 

[Atoyot]

i think those comments were valid at the time, he wasn't producing then, he is producing now.
bust comments are not valid rn.

Since January 4th, 10+7=17 in 12 games
Since December 30th, 12+8=20 in 14 games

"At the time" being...literally today.

 

[Artorius Horus T]

At the time being...literally today.

i meant those comments made in November last year, 1 comment above that Canadiens fan.

 

[TopC0rner]

So when you see a fairly large decrease in PPG, "bust in the making" isn't outlandish, no?

D year: 1.24 PPG
D+1 year: 1.18 PPG

Seems like a bust in the making. Is there any good reason to account for this very poor D+1 showing?

Labeling going from 1.24 PPG to 1.18 PPG a "fairly large decrease" might be a bit outlandish.

Anyhow, prospect development isn't linear and it isn't all about points. Goal scorers are notably more streaky as shooting percentage naturally varies. Plus, I think Barlow projects more as a complete player who scores goals than as a point-scoring machine.

 

[FlappyGiraffe]

D year: 1.24 PPG
D+1 year: 1.18 PPG

Seems like a bust in the making. Is there any good reason to account for this very poor D+1 showing?

Nice try, you aren't getting him for Monahan

 

[Artorius Horus T]

Kid is good at scoring goals i guess

6 game goal / point streak : 9+6=15

scored his 100th career OHL goal, in 140+ games

30 goals in 59 games in his rookie season
46 goals in 59 games in his last season
24 goals in 30 games so far this season

 

[Evgeny Oliker]

For those who have seen him in the OHL, is Kyle Connor a fair comparison?

That’s who he reminds me of the most,..

 

[lanky]

Kyle Connor is an elite puck handler at full speed. I don't think Barlow comes close in that regard. Barlow is stronger and more ready for puck battles.

Their ability to beat goalies is similar and what really sets them apart from other players.

 

[Coaches Coroner]

For those who have seen him in the OHL, is Kyle Connor a fair comparison?

That’s who he reminds me of the most,..

Unless Kyle Connor became a power forward recently, no imo. Barlow's skating isn't the level of Connor's, puck skill's not as good, same age MUCH more physical, stronger on skates, great in front of net, heavy shot.
If Connor wasn't a great scorer at the NHL level, his skills wouldn't be that useful in a grinding/checking role, whereas Barlow has a higher 'floor' if we're talking same age. He has a skillset where he can/will be useful away from the puck/as a quality, physical bottom 6er if his scoring ability for some reason didn't pan out.