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LW Anthony Mantha - Val d'Or, QMJHL (2013, 20th overall, Detroit)

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Analyzer said:
Thomas Beauregard scored 71 goals in 69 games, as well. The Q has changed. Not everyone is scoring at an insane rate.

The closest to him is Jeremy Gregoire with 12 goals in 10 games. His pace will drop off very soon, though.
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Gamache was two seasons past his first draft-eligible season, and Beauregard three seasons past his first draft-eligible season when they posted the seasons noted above.

Mantha is in his first season after his first draft-eligible season.

Comparing their first draft-eligible seasons, Mantha scored 50 in 67 games, Beauregard 18 in 65 games, and Gamache 19 in 70 games.

Yes, Mantha had the advantage in that, with a 9/16 birthday, he was old for his draft class, but 50 goals in 67 games is still pretty impressive.

Since 1980, only 18 guys have scored 60 goals per 80 games, adjusted for league scoring level by normalizing to 8 goals per game, in the Q in their first draft-eligible season:

Mario 121
Crosby 107
Lafontaine 88
Briere 80
Tanguay 79

Drouin 77
Hawerchuk 77
P. Turgeon 74
Mantha 68
MacKinnon 67

Lecavalier 65
Carson 65
Bernier 64
Brassard 64
Gelinas 64

Daigle 62
Huberdeau 61
PM Bouchard 61


That is an impressive list.

Obviously too early to tell re Drouin, Mantha, MacKinnon, and Huberdeau, but of the 14 who have been around a while, there are only 2 busts (Bernier and Daigle). There are 9 all-star to Hall of Fame guys (Mario, Crosby, Lafontaine, Briere, Tanguay, Hawerchuk, Turgeon, Lecavalier, and Carson), and 3 pretty good players (Gelinas, Brassard, and Bouchard).

Not saying Mantha will end up as good as the average guy on that list, but guys who can score at that level in their first draft eligible season in major junior generally can score at the NHL level.

And this is normally reflected in their draft position. Of the 18 guys who scored at that pace, seven were taken 1st overall, three more were 2nd or 3rd, four more were 4th to 10th, one 12th, one 16th, Mantha 20th and Briere 24th.

I think a lot of teams will regret passing on Mantha, and he has a better chance of being an NHL regular than a lot of the guys taken ahead of him last year.
 
Jurco and Mantha are both going to be studs I think. It's fairly upsetting to see those two drop as much as they did.
 
Cujomi said:
Jurco and Mantha are both going to be studs I think. It's fairly upsetting to see those two drop as much as they did.
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But let's draft the big OHL kid! Those good Canadian boys. :sarcasm:

With 3-straight Memorial Cups and a ton of great young prospects, maybe the Q will finally get the respect it deserves.
 
decma said:
Gamache was two seasons past his first draft-eligible season, and Beauregard three seasons past his first draft-eligible season when they posted the seasons noted above.

Mantha is in his first season after his first draft-eligible season.

Comparing their first draft-eligible seasons, Mantha scored 50 in 67 games, Beauregard 18 in 65 games, and Gamache 19 in 70 games.

Yes, Mantha had the advantage in that, with a 9/16 birthday, he was old for his draft class, but 50 goals in 67 games is still pretty impressive.

Since 1980, only 18 guys have scored 60 goals per 80 games, adjusted for league scoring level by normalizing to 8 goals per game, in the Q in their first draft-eligible season:

Mario 121
Crosby 107
Lafontaine 88
Briere 80
Tanguay 79

Drouin 77
Hawerchuk 77
P. Turgeon 74
Mantha 68
MacKinnon 67

Lecavalier 65
Carson 65
Bernier 64
Brassard 64
Gelinas 64

Daigle 62
Huberdeau 61
PM Bouchard 61


That is an impressive list.

Obviously too early to tell re Drouin, Mantha, MacKinnon, and Huberdeau, but of the 14 who have been around a while, there are only 2 busts (Bernier and Daigle). There are 9 all-star to Hall of Fame guys (Mario, Crosby, Lafontaine, Briere, Tanguay, Hawerchuk, Turgeon, Lecavalier, and Carson), and 3 pretty good players (Gelinas, Brassard, and Bouchard).

Not saying Mantha will end up as good as the average guy on that list, but guys who can score at that level in their first draft eligible season in major junior generally can score at the NHL level.

And this is normally reflected in their draft position. Of the 18 guys who scored at that pace, seven were taken 1st overall, three more were 2nd or 3rd, four more were 4th to 10th, one 12th, one 16th, Mantha 20th and Briere 24th.

I think a lot of teams will regret passing on Mantha, and he has a better chance of being an NHL regular than a lot of the guys taken ahead of him last year.
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One day removed from the previous draft, you have to think of this as Mantha's second year post draft, as age-wise, it essentially is.
 
alko said:
Interesting. I looked to the best QMJHL seasons and found something amazing. When we throw away all players, that were big stars in NHL (Lemieux, Lafontaine, Lafleur, Robitaille...), there are still many of them with great numbers. But they never make any big NHL career. And every player is smaller that 6 foot, or 180 cm.
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Lafontaine was small, and wasn't the best skater. Robitaille was considered a poor skater though he was 6'1 and Lafleur wasn't a big guy but obviously a tremendous skater, one of the best all time.

Everyone has their own set of circumstances.

How does Mantha compare to Andreychuk?
 
WeThreeKings said:
One day removed from the previous draft, you have to think of this as Mantha's second year post draft, as age-wise, it essentially is.
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He didn't really use that to his advantage in a more typical older player way though. For instance Monohan who has already turned 19 spent three seasons in the OHL before this year in Calgary. Mantha is still in his third real season (think he played two the first year so throw that out) in the Q, same as most of his draft class. So yes he is older, but he is a late bloomer anyway in terms of using that to his advantage, something to keep in mind.

But some of us have pointed this out, he is only 14 months younger than Ouellet for instance in Detroit's system and a mere month older than Athanasiou. At the same time what he is doing is impressive and it will get him in GR next year because of that same age factor whereas a decent amount of his draft class will still be hanging out in major junior.
 
WeThreeKings said:
One day removed from the previous draft, you have to think of this as Mantha's second year post draft, as age-wise, it essentially is.
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If you want to be fair I would look at halfway through his draft year to get a gage.. Someone said he has like 80 goals in 89 games since then
 
WeThreeKings said:
One day removed from the previous draft, you have to think of this as Mantha's second year post draft, as age-wise, it essentially is.
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So what's your arbitrary cut off for people who are in their first year post but in your opinion are in their second post draft year?
 
the banks said:
So what's your arbitrary cut off for people who are in their first year post but in your opinion are in their second post draft year?
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It's not arbitrary, Sept. 15th is the cutoff for draft eligibility. Guess what Mantha's birthday is? Sept. 16th. Born just a day earlier, and his draft year performance would have been the 51 points in 63 games plus scoring just 1 goal in 7 games with Canada's U-18s. Which, when you think about it, is when Charles Hudon, for example, scored 66 points in 59 games, is less than 3 months older, and was a 5th round pick (one year previous).
 
Yes, but as Zetterberg pointed out, in terms of CHL experience, it is fair to compare Mantha within his draft class as it was his second year (aside from the 2 game cup of coffee in 10/11).

He is, on average, 6 months older than guys in the 13 draft class, but, like the vast majority of them, was in his 2nd year of major junior when he posted the 50 goals in 67 games.
 
decma said:
Yes, but as Zetterberg pointed out, in terms of CHL experience, it is fair to compare Mantha within his draft class as it was his second year (aside from the 2 game cup of coffee in 10/11).
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Sure, if you're evaluating things like his ability to play within a system, or whatever, that's when the experience thing is totally valid. But:

decma said:
He is, on average, 6 months older than guys in the 13 draft class, but, like the vast majority of them, was in his 2nd year of major junior when he posted the 50 goals in 67 games.
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That translated into enough of a physical "advantage" (being compared in '13 to the '13 draft class as opposed to being compared in '12 to the '12 draft class, with others closest to his age) to at least be a partial factor. I believe he has gone from 6'1 as a rookie to either 6'3" or 6'4" already(?) Usually you have to project the frame, and how they adjust, but last year we saw what he was already able to do at 6'2"-6'3", and it was just a matter of whether a drafting team dreamed they could get even more than that.
 
He was in the '13 draft class, you should compare him against the 13' draft class, not the '12 draft class just because he is close in age to some of them.
 
Ohashi_Jouzu said:
Duh. Rules are obviously rules. It's still interesting.
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To address the Hudon comparison that was just made and all this draft class: you guys need to look into that first Q season. He absolutely took off in February and was almost goal per game for the last 2 months of the season. It took him a while to gain the confidence of Val d'Or's coach as a rookie and to himself gain confidence in his ability, but he ended the season extremely strong. Had he been born a day earlier, he would've been one of those "trending upwards" prospects that most "pundits" on here would've been hoping for in the mid first round because of his "raw talent/upside", "extremely late birthday" and his combination of size, speed and skill.

Plus, Hudon is nowhere near as good a skater and much, much smaller.
 
He's gonna be drawing a tonne of comparisons to guys like James Neal and JVR. Great size, very good skater for his size, great shot, nice hands, very good offensive instincts, decently physical too. Focuses more on offence than defence, but why wouldn't he when he's dominating like this? Yeah, old for his draft, but who cares, he's damn good and I can see him being a high quality top 6 winger very easily, maybe even a legit star. Should be just as big a steal as Brandon Saad (another player with a nice frame and tonnes of talent who dropped because people wanted him to be a bit more of a pure power forward, ignoring that he was a highly talented winger whose power game was just a bonus).
 
decma said:
Gamache was two seasons past his first draft-eligible season, and Beauregard three seasons past his first draft-eligible season when they posted the seasons noted above.

Mantha is in his first season after his first draft-eligible season.

Comparing their first draft-eligible seasons, Mantha scored 50 in 67 games, Beauregard 18 in 65 games, and Gamache 19 in 70 games.

Yes, Mantha had the advantage in that, with a 9/16 birthday, he was old for his draft class, but 50 goals in 67 games is still pretty impressive.

Since 1980, only 18 guys have scored 60 goals per 80 games, adjusted for league scoring level by normalizing to 8 goals per game, in the Q in their first draft-eligible season:

Mario 121
Crosby 107
Lafontaine 88
Briere 80
Tanguay 79

Drouin 77
Hawerchuk 77
P. Turgeon 74
Mantha 68
MacKinnon 67

Lecavalier 65
Carson 65
Bernier 64
Brassard 64
Gelinas 64

Daigle 62
Huberdeau 61
PM Bouchard 61


That is an impressive list.

Obviously too early to tell re Drouin, Mantha, MacKinnon, and Huberdeau, but of the 14 who have been around a while, there are only 2 busts (Bernier and Daigle). There are 9 all-star to Hall of Fame guys (Mario, Crosby, Lafontaine, Briere, Tanguay, Hawerchuk, Turgeon, Lecavalier, and Carson), and 3 pretty good players (Gelinas, Brassard, and Bouchard).

Not saying Mantha will end up as good as the average guy on that list, but guys who can score at that level in their first draft eligible season in major junior generally can score at the NHL level.

And this is normally reflected in their draft position. Of the 18 guys who scored at that pace, seven were taken 1st overall, three more were 2nd or 3rd, four more were 4th to 10th, one 12th, one 16th, Mantha 20th and Briere 24th.

I think a lot of teams will regret passing on Mantha, and he has a better chance of being an NHL regular than a lot of the guys taken ahead of him last year.
Click to expand...

It is doubtful he can keep it up bet he is currently on pace for 112 goals and 84 assists in 63 games.
I don't think anybody has scored 80 goals in a season in any of the CHL leagues since the goalie equipment was allowed to get so much bigger in the nineties.

The top 25 Goal Scoring season in the CHL.
http://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&...,d.aWc&cad=rja
Who has had the best goal scoring seasons in the last 20 years?
 
the banks said:
He was in the '13 draft class, you should compare him against the 13' draft class, not the '12 draft class just because he is close in age to some of them.
Click to expand...


By skill and potential in long run:

Mack
Jones
Drouin
Mantha
Barkov
 
PensBandwagonerNo272 said:
Have tickets to the Val d'Or @ Halifax game tomorrow night. Very excited to see Mantha! I'll make a post about his game afterward.
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I believe we should be up on the catwalk watching this game, which is always fun (and free!). Love that an old friend is technical coordinator/supervisor for WTC/Metro Centre events, and just meets us at the door. :D Does make for a longer trip to get beer though, I gotta say.
 
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