Lucas Raymond

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Last time I tried to correct Henkka on abusing the ever-loving hell out of statistics, he snapped at me and then started abusing them even more. Scared the hell out of me. Tread carefully, friends.

Anyway, what's the latest on Raymond? Is he a possibility for tomorrow?

It was crazy. Henkka stopped for a second. Turned, stared jaster directly in his orbital sockets, and wrote the word "statistics" on a sheet of paper and just started f***in whacking away on it with a tire-iron. Truly a fearful sight.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

And looking at just that stat, why would they? That seems like a very poor performing line they’re rolling out there. Since we are just ignoring sample sizes at this point.

and oh, a better stat. Look down the page a little bit. Larkin and Raymond on a line without Suter has a CF of 63.8% vs 42.9% with him on the line. And a SF% of 75% vs 47.9%.

If anything, they should just run 4 on 5, because clearly Pius Suter is dragging them down.

 

[jkutswings]

It was crazy. Henkka stopped for a second. Turned, stared jaster directly in his orbital sockets, and wrote the word "statistics" on a sheet of paper and just started f***in whacking away on it with a tire-iron. Truly a fearful sight.

Flashbacks to Nancy Kerrigan asking why...

*shudder*

Thankfully we're a lot more civilized around here.

Well, civilized for an online forum, anyway.

 

[14ari13]

Last time I tried to correct Henkka on abusing the ever-loving hell out of statistics, he snapped at me and then started abusing them even more. Scared the hell out of me. Tread carefully, friends.

Anyway, what's the latest on Raymond? Is he a possibility for tomorrow?

He provides a lot of useful stats. I appreciate it.

 

[iDangleDangle]

He provides a lot of useful stats. I appreciate it.

Usually without proper context, which leads to advanced stats being useless.

My fellow Finn also tends to make sweeping declarations and then flip flop with his opinions.

 

[14ari13]

Usually without proper context, which leads to advanced stats being useless.

My fellow Finn also tends to make sweeping declarations and then flip flop with his opinions.

It is not easy to read the stats.

Let me say this. This is going to annoy many posters, but...
I watched the game the other night and Redmond says that plus minus stat is useless and wrong. He then argues that if one player screws it up and all other players get a minus because of it and it is wrong. Well, of course Redmond is wrong because all other players get a plus too when they are not involved in the play.
Like last game. Seider breaks the pass, the puck lands in the neutral zone, Larkin speeds up the ice and scores. The the other 3 players on the ice get a plus even though they did not impact the goal at all.
Advanced stats do not say it all, but it is useful, and sometimes useless.

 

[iDangleDangle]

It is not easy to read the stats.

Let me say this. This is going to annoy many posters, but...
I watched the game the other night and Redmond says that plus minus stat is useless and wrong. He then argues that if one player screws it up and all other players get a minus because of it and it is wrong. Well, of course Redmond is wrong because you all other players get a plus too when they are not involved in the play.
Like last game. Seider breaks the pass, the puck lands in the neutral zone, Larkin speeds up the ice and scores. The the other 3 players on the ice get a plus even though they did not impact the goal at all.
Advanced stats do not say it all, but it is useful, and sometimes useless.

Agreed. +/- is a pretty useless stat without context. But the same applies to advanced stats.

I love the advent of advanced stats. The likes of xGF, high danger scoring chances, high danger sv % etc. are highly valuable, but also require a lot of context.

Over the years we've seen how systems can heavily effect the advanced numbers of a bottom pairing D-Man or a winger having career year and then them falling back to ground.

Like many stated, Henkka's stats lacked the most basic and important aspect of ANY statistical analysis: sample size.

 

[TheMule93]

What does Raymond do better than Nyquist or Tatar?

Discuss

 

[norrisnick]

What does Raymond do better than Nyquist or Tatar?

Discuss

Ray is better at making the NHL as a teenager. He's still 2+ years younger than when either became full-timers.

 

[lilidk]

What does Raymond do better than Nyquist or Tatar?

Discuss

Same sh-t but better, both were very good for RW , but they are not game changers , Raymond probably is

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

What does Raymond do better than Nyquist or Tatar?

Discuss

Play in the NHL as a 20 year old and put up 57 points in his rookie season?

Tatar was a 25 year old when he put up 56 points in a season. He only beat that twice in his career with 58 and 61 points.
Nyquist was 26 years old when he played his first full season with the Wings. He never scored more than 54 points in his career.

There's nothing earth shattering Raymond does better than both of them, but he's already better in his second year in the league as a 20 year old. Let's see where he is in a few years.

 

[jaster]

It is not easy to read the stats.

Let me say this. This is going to annoy many posters, but...
I watched the game the other night and Redmond says that plus minus stat is useless and wrong. He then argues that if one player screws it up and all other players get a minus because of it and it is wrong. Well, of course Redmond is wrong because you all other players get a plus too when they are not involved in the play.

The bolded fact actually makes the statistic worse, not better. The more noise you put in a statistic, the less meaningful it is, even if you feel like half the noise cancels out the other half the noise, because that's not actually what's happening. It's just raising the requirement for context to be added and making it more difficult to strip the noise out and find any meaning in the numbers.

+/- is mostly worthless. It's often worse than that because people will put stock in it when they shouldn't. It only begins to have some meaning in very large sample sizes, where regression occurs and the noise can kind of average out. But even then, context can be required, like in the case of a player playing his whole career on average and bad teams compared to a player who played only on good or great teams.

Like last game. Seider breaks the pass, the puck lands in the neutral zone, Larkin speeds up the ice and scores. The the other 3 players on the ice get a plus even though they did not impact the goal at all.
Advanced stats do not say it all, but it is useful, and sometimes useless.

Advanced stats are still just stats, and are still prone to most of the same pitfalls. The advantage that advanced stats have is that they remove some of the user error for when they are deployed. But certainly not all of it.

 

[Frk It]

What does Raymond do better than Nyquist or Tatar?

Discuss

At the same age? Everything

 

[jaster]

Play in the NHL as a 20 year old and put up 57 points in his rookie season?

Tatar was a 25 year old when he put up 56 points in a season. He only beat that twice in his career with 58 and 61 points.
Nyquist was 26 years old when he played his first full season with the Wings. He never scored more than 54 points in his career.

There's nothing earth shattering Raymond does better than both of them, but he's already better in his second year in the league as a 20 year old. Let's see where he is in a few years.

Um, excuse me? Gus Nyquist has a 60-point season to his name and was 25 for the entirety of his first full season. I will not stand idly by while you slander and besmirch his good name, sir!

 

[norrisnick]

It is not easy to read the stats.

Let me say this. This is going to annoy many posters, but...
I watched the game the other night and Redmond says that plus minus stat is useless and wrong. He then argues that if one player screws it up and all other players get a minus because of it and it is wrong. Well, of course Redmond is wrong because you all other players get a plus too when they are not involved in the play.
Like last game. Seider breaks the pass, the puck lands in the neutral zone, Larkin speeds up the ice and scores. The the other 3 players on the ice get a plus even though they did not impact the goal at all.
Advanced stats do not say it all, but it is useful, and sometimes useless.

Probably blow your mind then to learn that Mo didn't get a + for that play as he was on the bench before the goal was scored.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

Um, excuse me? Gus Nyquist has a 60-point season to his name and was 25 for the entirety of his first full season. I will not stand idly by while you slander and besmirch his good name, sir!

haha. sorry, in the interest of not besmirching I'll amend my statement. "In the NHL..."

 

[Ricelund]

Raymond's ceiling is much higher than Nyquist or Tatar's.

 

[jaster]

haha. sorry, in the interest of not besmirching I'll amend my statement. "In the NHL..."

 

[14ari13]

The bolded fact actually makes the statistic worse, not better. The more noise you put in a statistic, the less meaningful it is, even if you feel like half the noise cancels out the other half the noise, because that's not actually what's happening. It's just raising the requirement for context to be added and making it more difficult to strip the noise out and find any meaning in the numbers.

+/- is mostly worthless. It's often worse than that because people will put stock in it when they shouldn't. It only begins to have some meaning in very large sample sizes, where regression occurs and the noise can kind of average out. But even then, context can be required, like in the case of a player playing his whole career on average and bad teams compared to a player who played only on good or great teams.

Advanced stats are still just stats, and are still prone to most of the same pitfalls. The advantage that advanced stats have is that they remove some of the user error for when they are deployed. But certainly not all of it.

Probably blow your mind then to learn that Mo didn't get a + for that play as he was on the bench before the goal was scored.

View attachment 650682

I am aware of it and it happens. Seider got an assist but not the plus, because he went to the bench and Hronek stepped on the ice. But those things happen once a season or less and even out during a season/ career.

 

[SirloinUB]

Hypothetically, Lucas Raymond leveling off as a 50 - 60 point player is a very good piece for this team. Anything above that as he enters his prime is gravy.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

View attachment 650688

Ah dangit. It's always the mid-season trade that gets me!

 

[heyfolks]

What does Raymond do better than Nyquist or Tatar?

Discuss

Play hockey.

 

[Hazy Little Thing]

Production expectations for Raymond this year?

 

[norrisnick]

Production expectations for Raymond this year?

60+ unless he gets buried and no PP time.

 

[Hazy Little Thing]

60+ unless he gets buried and no PP time.

Right, that's the question, do you think he gets buried or not, does he get 1st line PP minutes or 2nd?