OT: Lets talk about stocks (Part 3)

[CHarlie]

I am pretty deep into crypto and have associates across the globe who we deal with. This is a summary I like to repeat especially with Binance now in trouble.

1) killing off the exchanges and letting Wall St come in to sweep up the remains so they can be at the forefront of digital assets when worldwide adoption/trading hits. It's the banks, Wall St and Blackrock that run the govt, not the politicians.
2) the US doesn't control USDT or issuance of new money, they hate it, they always need to be in control of their own currency. That is their biggest target.
3) US (and the rest of the world) will bring CBDCs to the forefront. They can issue and control it however they want, determine who can use it and how they can use it. People won't ditch cash for CBDCs unless they create another huge worldwide crisis that forces behavioral change in humans to make the switch. (think - "you gonna die if you don't get the jab!!! get the jab now!!!..............and yet those who never took it are doing just fine.......)
4) Digital assets are here to stay, but not until a 99% purge is done on all the useless coins. One more black swan event has to happen for this.
5) Off-chain assets = real world assets(RWA) = real estate, precious metals, loans, bonds, FX, just about any financial instrument = will be moved to the blockchain as tokenized RWAs for companies that can handle DLT.

I park money into xlm, sol, xrp, avax, BTC and ETh, that's it. Those will be the ones that survive. Avax will lead the gaming charge.

I agree with everything you are saying......there is major activity going on in the back ground with large institutions while main stream media promotes "crypto is bad" all part of the distraction.
I also invest in xlm,xrp and dont forget xdc for trade and casper for business and web3.

 

[Runner77]

Quite the story about Munger and his mindset. How he tackled adversity in his life is admirable and inspiring.

 

[LeHab]

Bitcoin guess I don’t Understand the pitch… the blockchain isn’t proprietary and if everything fail why wouldn’t bitcoin fail as well because if the power grid go out, gouvernement become a dictature, the bank fail or whatever catastrophe why would bitcoin be safer or more accessible. To me it seem that the biggest thing was the network of miners but with bigger and bigger farm popping up not sure the network is that diversified anymore those corporations could flip to any crypto at anypoint if there a better opportunity bitcoin might be the safes because people mining are kind of invested and the a lot of money ridding on it. Also other negative seem that everyone is holding on to it as speculation because why buy a Coffey when you could buy a car with the same coins later, ultimately if no one is spending can it even be currency… also with quantum computers is any blockchain or wallet safe… I don’t get it ultimately even being the best crypto seem like being the tallest midget… Maybe there someone that understands it that can tell me what I’m missing or why it is crypto great?

If the power goes out for any extended period of time then we are in some pretty deep trouble. One of primary benefits of crypto and blockchain is decentralization - reduce reliance on the middle-man and give users more control over their assets (money, data etc...). For digital transactions today we have to rely on a third party often taking a good cut and sometimes requiring days to complete transactions. With crypto we get closer to true peer-to-peer transactions with minimal fess depending on the currency (DeFi). In countries with high levels of corruption/inflation crypto is seen as a way to enhance transparency and stability even if there is still a lot of volatility within crypto world. Stablecoins exist which are expected to be pegged to fiat currencies like USD.

There are still many challenges such as dealing with centralized exchanges, lack of regulations, scalability, scams and mainstream adoption but things are slowly moving in the right direction. As I already pointed in an earlier post do look at various use cases for blockchain. Also Bitcoin gets bad reputation as it is energy intense however there exists proof of stake alternatives which only require a fraction of power. This said bitcoin is not going anywhere but not all crypto requires mining.

Developers are working on quantum safe solutions.

 

[calder candidate]

If the power goes out for any extended period of time then we are in some pretty deep trouble. One of primary benefits of crypto and blockchain is decentralization - reduce reliance on the middle-man and give users more control over their assets (money, data etc...). For digital transactions today we have to rely on a third party often taking a good cut and sometimes requiring days to complete transactions. With crypto we get closer to true peer-to-peer transactions with minimal fess depending on the currency (DeFi). In countries with high levels of corruption/inflation crypto is seen as a way to enhance transparency and stability even if there is still a lot of volatility within crypto world. Stablecoins exist which are expected to be pegged to fiat currencies like USD.

There are still many challenges such as dealing with centralized exchanges, lack of regulations, scalability, scams and mainstream adoption but things are slowly moving in the right direction. As I already pointed in an earlier post do look at various use cases for blockchain. Also Bitcoin gets bad reputation as it is energy intense however there exists proof of stake alternatives which only require a fraction of power. This said bitcoin is not going anywhere but not all crypto requires mining.

Developers are working on quantum safe solutions.

Even if it is decentralized wouldn’t a dictator be able to shut down or limit accès to the network, solar flare, nuclear war I can’t see many scenarios in which bitcoin can thrive while currency would be useless for a extended period of time. Also the power consumption is extremely significant bitcoin alone consuming more power than entire countries per year with very low % of total transactions Visa alone process like 24k transactions per seconds while crypto does like 60 per second that is a long way to go… That what I try to see find out in what scenario would bitcoin prevail?

 

[CHarlie]

Bitcoin will not replace currency.....just like gold doesnt....its a store of value and a hedge against inflation.....Blackrock and the likes are trying to get the SEC to pass a Bitcoin ETF solely to allow investors to safley purchase Bitcoin and for the big banks to control the market......as far as currency goes you are talking CBDCs which are not a good thing but they are being introduced already in some parts of the globe.......Bitcoins transaction rate is way to clunky and slow to be transactional.....there are way faster block chains and dlts out there eg. XRP.

 

[pepperMonkey]

Even if it is decentralized wouldn’t a dictator be able to shut down or limit accès to the network, solar flare, nuclear war I can’t see many scenarios in which bitcoin can thrive while currency would be useless for a extended period of time. Also the power consumption is extremely significant bitcoin alone consuming more power than entire countries per year with very low % of total transactions Visa alone process like 24k transactions per seconds while crypto does like 60 per second that is a long way to go… That what I try to see find out in what scenario would bitcoin prevail?

If you really think about it, fiat is all digital these days. Sure, there are some physical representation of fiat but the grand majority is digital. Take down the banks for extended period of time. Take down power for extended amount of time. Nuclear war. etc. etc....do you think your bank account will be accessible? Ultimately, no power, no money. Same with crypto. For Bitcoin, it also helps that it's decentralized.

As for transactions per second, Bitcoin is a store of value. There are others that are more suited for high transactions. Case in point, Solana (SOL), which can do 65K TPS. ETH 2.0 is estimated to be 100K.

As for energy use...yes, Bitcoin does use a ton of energy, even more than some countries...but...um...global bank data centres uses more. And the energy used to facilitate transactions, transmissions, distributions, etc. is way more. Yes, true, the amount of transactions dwarfs Bitcoin but I'm just saying it's not as if Bitcoin is alone by its lonesome in energy use. We use a TON to facilitate regular daily transactions. And again, there are a ton (almost everything else) of other crypto's that use significantly less power. And even those that do use a significant amount of power, there is a huge push to use renewable energies as well as advances in efficiencies and crypto specific hardware that are getting more and more efficient. I don't really think it's a problem, at least more so than all the other things that consume power.

 

[HuGort]

Quite the story about Munger and his mindset. How he tackled adversity in his life is admirable and inspiring.

Good story Runner thanks for putting on here. He went through more than I can imagine.

 

[Runner77]

 

[HuGort]

DOW Futures up good this morning. Hoping for good day on markets. Make some money.

 

[HuGort]

Off, Royal Bank stock jumped yesterday while TD Bank announced massive layoffs.

 

[Jaynki]

Christ, did not know we had a stocks thread here.

On watch for a buy -> DUOL.

Recent IPO ARM is looking good here too, might punch for all time high when he will get out of its short term consolidation.

ACLX consolidating tightly in ATH (~14% from recent high to recent low.) Another week in those parameter and the next leg up might be explosive.

 

[HuGort]

S&P500 finished up today at 52 week closing high. Certainly is good.

DOW closed well over 36,000. I hope this rally and sustain

 

[LeHab]

Even if it is decentralized wouldn’t a dictator be able to shut down or limit accès to the network, solar flare, nuclear war I can’t see many scenarios in which bitcoin can thrive while currency would be useless for a extended period of time. Also the power consumption is extremely significant bitcoin alone consuming more power than entire countries per year with very low % of total transactions Visa alone process like 24k transactions per seconds while crypto does like 60 per second that is a long way to go… That what I try to see find out in what scenario would bitcoin prevail?

A dictator would need to own +50% of BTC to cause trouble. Crypto is not here to replace fiat anytime soon but complement and create new economies on the blockchain. While BTC uses proof of work consensus mechanism which s energy intensive other alternatives such as Ethereum use proof of stake which only use a fraction. In crypto we balance security, decentralization and scalability (volume of transactions) - or the so called blockchain trilemma. For a brief overview of this and solutions have a read here: What Is the Blockchain Trilemma? | Binance Academy

 

[Runner77]

 

[Sasha Orlov]

You wanna be safe?

Solid gold bars

 

[HuGort]

I sold a bunch of Apple when Steve Jobs died. What mistake that was

 

[Runner77]

Is anyone familiar with this investment proponent?

I’m always wary of individuals making big claims but after viewing his video, I must admit that what he’s saying looks interesting:



If you can take a few minutes to watch, would love your feedback. Thanks.

 

[Runner77]

 

[calder candidate]

A dictator would need to own +50% of BTC to cause trouble. Crypto is not here to replace fiat anytime soon but complement and create new economies on the blockchain. While BTC uses proof of work consensus mechanism which s energy intensive other alternatives such as Ethereum use proof of stake which only use a fraction. In crypto we balance security, decentralization and scalability (volume of transactions) - or the so called blockchain trilemma. For a brief overview of this and solutions have a read here: What Is the Blockchain Trilemma? | Binance Academy

Not saying one person could stop bitcoin but if the government or dictator control the telecom wouldn’t they be able to restrict or limit access on a territory… all 3 issues are pretty big delimma, and I still don’t see scenario where money is useless and bitcoin is the solution. Also not saying the the info isn’t good but Binance academy might have to take that with a grain of salt if that the same Binance that pleaded guilty 4b$ for money laundering not sure a crypto exchange will be making a neutral or the best case against cryptocurrency info might be skew toward the positive…

 

[HuGort]

Brokers fees aren't that bad. But RRSPs fees and the such are.

 

[montreal]

Is anyone familiar with this investment proponent?

I’m always wary of individuals making big claims but after viewing his video, I must admit that what he’s saying looks interesting:



If you can take a few minutes to watch, would love your feedback. Thanks.

I took a look at it, didn't get through it all, but I know what he's saying as my first job out of college was at the Vanguard Group. What he's saying is something that is geared towards younger investors that can take more risk due to having longer to rebound. On the other hand if you were looking to retire soon, I wouldn't apply this.

 

[Runner77]

I took a look at it, didn't get through it all, but I know what he's saying as my first job out of college was at the Vanguard Group. What he's saying is something that is geared towards younger investors that can take more risk due to having longer to rebound. On the other hand if you were looking to retire soon, I wouldn't apply this.

Thanks for taking the time.

He tackles asset allocation according to age, from approximately the 12:20 mark. All his investing recommendations are based on owning only 3 ETFs.

He starts with those in retirement age, followed by those 10 years from retirement, 20 years from retirement, those in the 30-35 age bracket and finally those in their 20s.

 

[HuGort]

Gold and Bitcoin both spiking last few months. Gold hit all time high over night before pulling back slightly.

 

[pepperMonkey]

Brokers fees aren't that bad. But RRSPs fees and the such are.

Err...RRSP fees? Sorry, I am not sure that I follow. Are you talking Mutual fund fees? In which case, I agree. Generally, unless you have high conviction, I would forego all mutual funds and go ETF's or individual stocks (if you are really confident in your abilities...even though 90% should probably just stick with index (ETF) funds).

 

[pepperMonkey]

Is anyone familiar with this investment proponent?

I’m always wary of individuals making big claims but after viewing his video, I must admit that what he’s saying looks interesting:



If you can take a few minutes to watch, would love your feedback. Thanks.

I haven't watched all of it but he has one HUUGE fundamental error when he picked QQQ and how he has data to back it up... His data is talking about the time frame where rates were effectively zero which is almost unprecedented. QQQ is probably NOT going to do nearly as well as it has in the last two decades because we are never (well, guess we can't say never but still) going back to zero rate environment. All indication is saying we are going to be in elevated rates for quite some time and may never get to the 2% target (i.e. 3-4%). If we go back and have 3-4% rates during the last two decades, QQQ will not have done as well.
There is also the fact that 'historically', the stocks/industry that lead the last market cycle will not be the one that leads the next market cycle. Course, maybe this time it'll be different...(lol).
I'll have to watch the rest, but the above alone would make me very wary about his views.
Just my opinion of course