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OT: Lets talk about stocks (Part 3)

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japhi said:
Banks are extending amortizations over 35 years to allow variable rate holders that can't afford the payment the ability to stay in their house until the term is up. If Amorts don't change, and OSFI enforces the new high LTV rules (OSFI proposes changes to manage mortgage risks, preserving access for Canadians) then this whole house or cards will eventually fall apart. And fast....highly leveraged homeowners will go from being able to just make payments, to having to list to sell, to finding they are underwater with no market to sell into, and ultimately bankrupt. Only takes a few guys s in a neighborhood that need to sell, to take the market down 30%. Once that happens, housing corrects, party is over.

Also, September inflation print in Canada is going to be north of 3.5%, possibly 4%. Rates are going to have to go up, or we will need to accept entrenched inflation. We are in this crazy scenario whereby interest rates are the largest driver of inflation, yet they need to continue to go up to kill consumer spending. Canadians are financially illiterate - credit balances are increasing FFS - I suspect most people have no idea what comes next.

Edit: this link shows what's happening with consume credit while we are at full employment. Imagine what the numbers will look like in a recession with 7% UI:

Press Releases | About Us | Equifax Canada

Search our press releases on everything from identity theft to credit scores, credit reports and more.
www.consumer.equifax.ca www.consumer.equifax.ca
Click to expand...
If it's that bad for mortgage holders gov't usually makes adjustments. Doubt they going to let it bring down the country. Inflation won't be as bad as '70s and early '80s. We survived that.

I can remember my parents had 18% mortgage in 1981. Mom was some nervous
 
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japhi said:
Banks are extending amortizations over 35 years to allow variable rate holders that can't afford the payment the ability to stay in their house until the term is up. If Amorts don't change, and OSFI enforces the new high LTV rules (OSFI proposes changes to manage mortgage risks, preserving access for Canadians) then this whole house or cards will eventually fall apart. And fast....highly leveraged homeowners will go from being able to just make payments, to having to list to sell, to finding they are underwater with no market to sell into, and ultimately bankrupt. Only takes a few guys s in a neighborhood that need to sell, to take the market down 30%. Once that happens, housing corrects, party is over.

Also, September inflation print in Canada is going to be north of 3.5%, possibly 4%. Rates are going to have to go up, or we will need to accept entrenched inflation. We are in this crazy scenario whereby interest rates are the largest driver of inflation, yet they need to continue to go up to kill consumer spending. Canadians are financially illiterate - credit balances are increasing FFS - I suspect most people have no idea what comes next.

Edit: this link shows what's happening with consume credit while we are at full employment. Imagine what the numbers will look like in a recession with 7% UI:

Press Releases | About Us | Equifax Canada

Search our press releases on everything from identity theft to credit scores, credit reports and more.
www.consumer.equifax.ca www.consumer.equifax.ca
Click to expand...

 
And there it is, 4% inflation. So where we are at is 25% of mortgages are underwater and rates will need to keep increasing. Those rate increases will lead to more inflation.

Stompin Paul - I know folks got through the inflationary period of the 70s but home prices were reasonable. Very few Canadians can carry current mortgage balances at 6% much less 16% based on the data above. I think we are at risk of our own 2008 style housing correction, the ARM's of 2008 are not a hell of a lot different then a fixed at 1.5% resetting at 6.5%.

FWIW I'm not a doomer, and am still mostly invested. But the party has to end at some point, which will create lots of pain AND lots of great opportunity for those that aren't over leveraged.
 
I got involved in stock buying back at the start of COVID (a lot of us did) and one of the stocks that was constantly pumped was Nvidia. I was too knew to really understand anything at the time so didn't put any money in there.

For the fun of it, I went back to December 2020 and compared it to September 2023 and well...I guess whoever was pumping the shit out of their tires turned out to have been the most right.

53$ USD in Dec 2020
485$ USD in Sept 2023

That's 814% gain. That's actually insane.

If you compare that to Tesla (even with that crazy bull run in 2021), it's only sitting at 25%, which is still solid.

I'm curious to understand the hype because last I read, Nvidia had to some of their latest chips literally melt computers. Do they have the market cornered or something?
 
RabbleMasterBlaster said:
I got involved in stock buying back at the start of COVID (a lot of us did) and one of the stocks that was constantly pumped was Nvidia. I was too knew to really understand anything at the time so didn't put any money in there.

For the fun of it, I went back to December 2020 and compared it to September 2023 and well...I guess whoever was pumping the shit out of their tires turned out to have been the most right.

53$ USD in Dec 2020
485$ USD in Sept 2023

That's 814% gain. That's actually insane.

If you compare that to Tesla (even with that crazy bull run in 2021), it's only sitting at 25%, which is still solid.

I'm curious to understand the hype because last I read, Nvidia had to some of their latest chips literally melt computers. Do they have the market cornered or something?
Click to expand...
NVIDIA produces GPUs, a special type of computer chip designed for machine learning. And machine learning/AI is the hype of the moment. Every ad on TV right now is companies showcasing AI AI AI, even if most of it is just vaporware.
 
RabbleMasterBlaster said:
I got involved in stock buying back at the start of COVID (a lot of us did) and one of the stocks that was constantly pumped was Nvidia. I was too knew to really understand anything at the time so didn't put any money in there.

For the fun of it, I went back to December 2020 and compared it to September 2023 and well...I guess whoever was pumping the shit out of their tires turned out to have been the most right.

53$ USD in Dec 2020
485$ USD in Sept 2023

That's 814% gain. That's actually insane.

If you compare that to Tesla (even with that crazy bull run in 2021), it's only sitting at 25%, which is still solid.

I'm curious to understand the hype because last I read, Nvidia had to some of their latest chips literally melt computers. Do they have the market cornered or something?
Click to expand...

They're leaders in AI, basically a monopoly for machine learning. GPUs also predate machine learning. There are also real world business applications to the AI. For example, non Tesla cars are using Nvidia's services for their autonomous driving. Their products are doing most of the training, including for ChatGPT. The best thing you can do is to do your own research on the subject and watch out for people who make affirmations that seem unfounded or simplified.
 
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RabbleMasterBlaster said:
I got involved in stock buying back at the start of COVID (a lot of us did) and one of the stocks that was constantly pumped was Nvidia. I was too knew to really understand anything at the time so didn't put any money in there.

For the fun of it, I went back to December 2020 and compared it to September 2023 and well...I guess whoever was pumping the shit out of their tires turned out to have been the most right.

53$ USD in Dec 2020
485$ USD in Sept 2023

That's 814% gain. That's actually insane.

If you compare that to Tesla (even with that crazy bull run in 2021), it's only sitting at 25%, which is still solid.

I'm curious to understand the hype because last I read, Nvidia had to some of their latest chips literally melt computers. Do they have the market cornered or something?
Click to expand...
I own some NVIDIA but not enough to make any real money.
 
Heard Musk saying Twitter has 550 million subscribers. Talk on charging credit cards to get rid of bots and multiple accounts. He's already changed its name to X.

How long before we see his X.com dream from his Paypal days come to fruition? He's slowly turning Twitter into a digital currency which he hopes will be the currency of the world.
 
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Stompin Paul Peller said:
Heard Musk saying Twitter has 550 million subscribers. Talk on charging credit cards to get rid of bots and multiple accounts. He's already changed its name to X.

How long before we see his X.com dream from his Paypal days come to fruition? He's slowly turning Twitter into a digital currency which he hopes will be the currency of the world.
Click to expand...
His 'dream' with X isn't his old X.com. It goes much much further than just plain digital currency. He is trying to make X the next WeChat. I.e. the app that does everything
 
pepperMonkey said:
His 'dream' with X isn't his old X.com. It goes much much further than just plain digital currency. He is trying to make X the next WeChat. I.e. the app that does everything
Click to expand...
Scary what one man can do. Not only can he create a world's digital currency. He is obsessed with humans interplanet species. Optimus he can create a robot superior to humans. Neaurlink and AI
 
Stompin Paul Peller said:
Heard Musk saying Twitter has 550 million subscribers. Talk on charging credit cards to get rid of bots and multiple accounts. He's already changed its name to X.

How long before we see his X.com dream from his Paypal days come to fruition? He's slowly turning Twitter into a digital currency which he hopes will be the currency of the world.
Click to expand...
He's making it subscription based because he ran off all the advertisers. They lost a ton of revenue and have to make it up somehow. Don't think it will work, I doubt people want to pay a monthly fee just to tweet (xeet?).
 
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Hope Of Glory said:
He's making it subscription based because he ran off all the advertisers. They lost a ton of revenue and have to make it up somehow. Don't think it will work, I doubt people want to pay a monthly fee just to tweet (xeet?).
Click to expand...
He'll probably be forced to have a free tier. With that said, assuming he does incorporate even a little of WeChat like functionality, and if it actually sticks (big gigantic 'IF'), it'll grow enough that advertisers would be forced back on kicking and screaming regardless of any 'moral' standings of the advertisers.
 
Non Player Canadiens said:
NVIDIA produces GPUs, a special type of computer chip designed for machine learning. And machine learning/AI is the hype of the moment. Every ad on TV right now is companies showcasing AI AI AI, even if most of it is just vaporware.
Click to expand...
GPU's aren't 'designed' with Machine Learning in mind. It is "Graphics Processing Unit" after all. Now, NVDA did introduce CUDA, a programming platform that lets you perform various computing processes via their GPU's which are heavily used in M/L. It wasn't 'designed' for AI either but it is the main reason for Nvidia GPU usage in AI.

Non Player Canadiens said:
that does everything, and shares the data with the Chinese gvt? :sarcasm:
Click to expand...
Lol, if X ever turns into a WeChat, there is absolutely no way it'll be allowed to run in China, not when China already has WeChat in their back pocket. Let some foreign entity encroach into that space? Not gonna happen. :)
 
pepperMonkey said:
Lol, if X ever turns into a WeChat, there is absolutely no way it'll be allowed to run in China, not when China already has WeChat in their back pocket. Let some foreign entity encroach into that space? Not gonna happen. :)
Click to expand...
hah you misunderstood my concern completely. i don't care about how WeChat fares in China, even though you're right they would protect their home turf. i'm concerned about their dystopian, mandatory data sharing arrangement with the Chinese government ...

and yes of course you're right about GPUs, they weren't originally designed for ML, but i think we can now say that ML is their primary use case, and the reason Nvidia stock really popped off in the last ~3 years
 
pepperMonkey said:
He'll probably be forced to have a free tier. With that said, assuming he does incorporate even a little of WeChat like functionality, and if it actually sticks (big gigantic 'IF'), it'll grow enough that advertisers would be forced back on kicking and screaming regardless of any 'moral' standings of the advertisers.
Click to expand...
That's entirely possible, although I don't think advertisers left for moral reasons. They usually don't care that much about that stuff unless absolutely forced to or if they can benefit from it, which I don't think is the case here. The traffic probably just went down as the platform's quality went to shit with the lack moderation, the hate accounts coming back and the propaganda bots.

But maybe those WeChat like features could bring back traffic, we'll see. Or if they can get ried of the bots. They would be less frequent with a paid subscribtions, although I wouldn't put it beneath Musk to just offer "bulk" prices for corporations or propaganda outlets to have their paid bots hang around. Free tier makes the most sense though, so adding feature is probably the only way to make his investment profitable. After all, he was forced to buy Twitter, he didn't want it after his original offer. So maybe he has no clue what he's doing.

We'll see but I lost a lot of respect and trust in Musk's capabilities in the last few years. Not that I was a fanboy or anything like that to begin with.
 
Stompin Paul Peller said:
Heard Musk saying Twitter has 550 million subscribers. Talk on charging credit cards to get rid of bots and multiple accounts. He's already changed its name to X.

How long before we see his X.com dream from his Paypal days come to fruition? He's slowly turning Twitter into a digital currency which he hopes will be the currency of the world.
Click to expand...

Turning Twitter into a decentralized bank among other things is hopefully the goal. Should not be a single currency but open enough to handle any type be it fiat or various crypto flavors.
 
S&P500 back over 4,500. Been a roller coaster ride last few months. Some saying may see run between 5-10% by years end. VIX down around 12, 10 year down under 4.5%.
 
Stocks? 5 points...

* Canadian stocks ALWAYS underperform.

* CDN Bank stocks are a bargain right now.

* Utilities are due for a come back - when interest rates fall.

* Stay away for Crypto.

* Smartest Move : Buy an ETF than mirrors the S&P 500 and forget about it.
 
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