OT: Lets talk about stocks (Part 3)

[Naslundforever]

Mostly holding cash at this point, this will last 3 years....
I think there are multiple entry points. Real estate will be first.

I just doubled my house payments and am wondering how much cash-to-property I should go with. All this seems like a crapshoot; my rrsps are mostly going up recently for the last 2-3 weeks… not today though.

 

[HuGort]

I know I was not the one you asked.

But the simpler, the better, 99% of the time in investing.

So if you want US exposure, as a Canadian, I'd suggest VUN, which is a total market US ETF.

But I strongly suggest you simply go with a worlwide total market funds like VEQT (if you`re okay with having 100% equity).

I am going European stocks. The energy crisis in Europe have driven down their markets too far. I am waiting until passes the 200 day moving average. When it does I am Investing in emerging markets.

Your stats are incorrect in a crucial way, you are ignoring the terminal population in 85% of countries and Africa will go terminal by 2035 instead of 2060, given what is happening in Ukraine (out of food).

The population will decrease significantly. The Chinese are unveiling their dismal census that overcounted their population by 100 million women(!) - and they will lose half their population by 2070, that's minus 600 million right there, without wars, famine etc etc. (that's all coming).

Even the NYT is talking about this:

Long Slide Looms for World Population, With Sweeping Ramifications (Published 2021)

Fewer babies’ cries. More abandoned homes. Toward the middle of this century, as deaths start to exceed births, changes will come that are hard to fathom.

www.nytimes.com

That was before the pandemic, wars, de-globalization, famine, wars (food wars), and climate change. Nigeria will go terminal before 2030 if they stop getting food help.
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India is going terminal (everytime you think it can't go lower...it can)
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Anyone who is looking at this seriously: there is only one outcome possible.

That's all nonsense

 

[SOLR]

I am going European stocks. The energy crisis in Europe have driven down their markets too far. I am waiting until passes the 200 day moving average. When it does I am Investing in emerging markets.


That's all nonsense

Whatever suits you lol

 

[SOLR]

Do you have any specific company (or even ETFs) worth looking up that could benefit from the upcoming factory boom in the US or elsewhere in the world?

I'm more of a seed investor in startups than a market investor, I think @QuebecPride's picks are good, but I'm seeking higher returns because I can get in these startups and grow them myself.

 

[montreal]

Do you have any specific company (or even ETFs) worth looking up that could benefit from the upcoming factory boom in the US or elsewhere in the world?

perhaps BOTZ, as its Ai and robotics which should play a much bigger role in future factories but it's a long term play. I've done well with it in the past.

 

[Hope Of Glory]

perhaps BOTZ, as its Ai and robotics which should play a much bigger role in future factories but it's a long term play. I've done well with it in the past.

I'ill definitely look it up, thanks!

 

[HuGort]

Whatever suits you lol

Men and women will continue to behave the way they have since beginning of time. Not going to see no reversal in population. They pulling the wool over your eyes SOLR. You can't believe those countries.

I find the Chinese intelligent. I wouldn't say genius. But At least average to above average. They ambitious. They have scruples but not like ours. Chinese are a lot more financial driven. Which will cause them to do more unethical than us. What I see of it, ambitious people are ones to be most watchful of. The laid back guy usually will never harm you.

 

[SOLR]

Men and women will continue to behave the way they have since beginning of time. Not going to see no reversal in population. They pulling the wool over your eyes SOLR. You can't believe those countries.

I find the Chinese intelligent. I wouldn't say genius. But At least average to above average. They ambitious. They have scruples but not like ours. Chinese are a lot more financial driven. Which will cause them to do more unethical than us. What I see of it, ambitious people are ones to be most watchful of. The laid back guy usually will never harm you.

So they are hiding the babies now? Are they lying about the 50%+ diminution in sexual activity too?
You are ignoring reality to your own peril.

There will be a population decline that will "break" things all around the world and lead to... more depopulation. There was always going to be a depopulation, the boomers were too numerous and they didn't replace themselves. The X didn't, the millennials won't, the Zoomers won't. And this is happening worldwide (Africa aside, it's not like it's a western thing. It's a smartphone thing), it's a woman choosing careers over family (no blame), it's a globalization thing (we are deglobalizing, no more food surplus in Africa)

 

[HuGort]

Going to see S&P500 drop to around 3,200. Feds have to raise rates significantly next week. Causing a lot of money to flow out of equities into fixed income.

Feds waited too long to address inflation. It's got a big head start on them. They going to have to over react to get it back under control. Next 2-3 years not going to be good.

 

[Perrah]

Going to see S&P500 drop to around 3,200. Feds have to raise rates significantly next week. Causing a lot of money to flow out of equities into fixed income.

Feds waited too long to address inflation. It's got a big head start on them. They going to have to over react to get it back under control. Next 2-3 years not going to be good.

The rub is the market knows that is coming. I am not sure if you will see a huge drop unless they go to a a full 1% raise. Seems like before the CPI tehy were exepcting .5-.75 and now they are expecting .75 for certain with the possibility of 1.

 

[ClasslessGuy]

Taking a beating on my wealthsimple accounts. I also increased my mortgage payment since the start of covid since we were part of the lucky ones that were already working from home, + saving 2k in daycare a month.

 

[HuGort]

The rub is the market knows that is coming. I am not sure if you will see a huge drop unless they go to a a full 1% raise. Seems like before the CPI tehy were exepcting .5-.75 and now they are expecting .75 for certain with the possibility of 1.

Likely see a 4th Q meltdown. Once people get 4.5% in fixed income going to see exodus of money out of equities. Other day I guessed 20% drop in S&P from 3,950. Gave me around 3,200.

Next 2-3 years not going to be good. You want to buckle down. The inflation issue in the west is out of whack. Needs tremendous pull back to get it under control. The Ukraine war and energy crisis in Europe is killing their stock market. China has major problems. They can't get herd immunity. They got substantial real estate and construction problems. They have serious growth problems and so many people. They going to take Taiwan. Physical by force I meant. I would look for energy agreements with Russia for a sign. China going to need energy in case of maritime blockade. That be telling tale for you to watch for. They can't do it yet, but within two years it will happen. It could be another country but Russia be first they turn too for major supply of energy.

Chinese are ambitious and intelligent. The lazy guy will never hurt you. He hasn't got the push. The ambitious guy is who will cut your throat. Russians are ambitious but not intelligent. Russia come at you roaring like a lion. Right out of the gate. It's like here I am and this is what I am going to do. Putin you can see evil in him miles away. Russia you can tell by their technology in this war they are not state of the art. Numerous breakdowns in commands. Fuel supply shortages. They can't counter punch the boost in technology Musk gave Ukraine. Russia has lost 1100 hundred tanks in this war. Russian war machine is behind technology.

Chinese are a lot more coy. Early on they will be good but when timing is right they will turn on you. China needs the chip technology in Taiwan. They eventually going to need minerals and resources from other countries. AI is the future. It is so much more efficient and cost affective. Chinese are being pushed out. It will go to major war at some point.

 

[SOLR]

Likely see a 4th Q meltdown. Once people get 4.5% in fixed income going to see exodus of money out of equities. Other day I guessed 20% drop in S&P from 3,950. Gave me around 3,200.

Next 2-3 years not going to be good. You want to buckle down. The inflation issue in the west is out of whack. Needs tremendous pull back to get it under control. The Ukraine war and energy crisis in Europe is killing their stock market. China has major problems. They can't get herd immunity. They got substantial real estate and construction problems. They have serious growth problems and so many people. They going to take Taiwan. Physical by force I meant. I would look for energy agreements with Russia for a sign. China going to need energy in case of maritime blockade. That be telling tale for you to watch for. They can't do it yet, but within two years it will happen. It could be another country but Russia be first they turn too for major supply of energy.

Chinese are ambitious and intelligent. The lazy guy will never hurt you. He hasn't got the push. The ambitious guy is who will cut your throat. Russians are ambitious but not intelligent. Russia come at you roaring like a lion. Right out of the gate. It's like here I am and this is what I am going to do. Putin you can see evil in him miles away. Russia you can tell by their technology in this war they are not state of the art. Numerous breakdowns in commands. Fuel supply shortages. They can't counter punch the boost in technology Musk gave Ukraine. Russia has lost 1100 hundred tanks in this war. Russian war machine is behind technology.

Chinese are a lot more coy. Early on they will be good but when timing is right they will turn on you. China needs the chip technology in Taiwan. They eventually going to need minerals and resources from other countries. AI is the future. It is so much more efficient and cost affective. Chinese are being pushed out. It will go to major war at some point.

There is no possibility for China and Russia to build a new pipeline in less than 15 years. You're off the wazzoo in your analysis for this reason. China can't take Taiwan, they would get absolutely destroyed (when did they win a war? ever?) and Taiwan is the biggest nuclear threat in the world, If the Chinese amass their army to invade the Taiwanese, everybody will know and the Taiwanese will be ready to nuke Beijing/Shanghai, that's a 1 hr nuke threat (or just 1 attack on the 3 Gorge Dam project...) - Taiwanese just announced the mass production of their Mach 5 missiles to carry such nuclear weapons. All the noise from the Chinese is just noise to maintain internal order and that's all it's ever going to be. US has a GEN 6 fighter ready, built to thrash the Chinese airforce. The window is already over, the Chinese population decline will accelerate over the next few years and make the CCP extremely unstable - we'll be dealing with independent City-state Chinese cities soon enough (return to pre-WWII).

Russia is about to get picked off, they are desperate, it's a lot likely Putin is put aside and then Russia would go west hard for the first time.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

Going to see S&P500 drop to around 3,200. Feds have to raise rates significantly next week. Causing a lot of money to flow out of equities into fixed income.

Feds waited too long to address inflation. It's got a big head start on them. They going to have to over react to get it back under control. Next 2-3 years not going to be good.

It’s transitory. They were aggressive.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

Taking a beating on my wealthsimple accounts. I also increased my mortgage payment since the start of covid since we were part of the lucky ones that were already working from home, + saving 2k in daycare a month.

Smart man

 

[HuGort]

Next 90 days or so going to be treacherous making money in stocks. Many bargains will become available. But you want to be prepared to wait three years at least before making any real money. It's going to be a long while before market comes back.

It could go longer. How these wars play out is no way knowing. Russia if it feels lost war they type of people chance drop a nuke on Kyiv. Russians have no scruples that way. How they are as people. Very cold, no feelings.

China not sure if they crawl in bed with Russia or not. They maybe forced to though. Chinese not like Russians. They different people. Ukraine wasn't well thought out. Chinese will have distaste for that. Chinese people are more secretive and under handed than obvious move like a Ukraine invasion. For it brings too much negative attention around the world, drives stock market down. Anything hurts them financial China will not like. Russia went in with guns a blazing, deal with consequences later. For example, If Russia was China they would have took Taiwan eons ago. Dealt with consequences gave it no second though. China will take Taiwan when timing is right. Strong chance it goes to major war. Going to be in next few years. China has major problems, they are forced into it. Their markets are a mess. They getting desperate, no room for financial growth. Long term future is AI. China will know it. Taiwan offers technology they need. That is what they go for

 

[BehindTheTimes]

China will not be invading Taiwan ever imo. The Chinese are smarter than we think. As for the markets, it’s going to be devastating for many. As those who locked in at ~2% mortgages come due for renewal at 10% many will lose everything.

Luckily, variable rate mortgages make up a pretty low percentage of mortgages. My strategy is the same as Classlessguy. I’m paying down my mortgage, mortgage is open at renewal and I can pay as much as I want without penalty. The goal is to make this as painless as possible.

 

[Perrah]

China will not be invading Taiwan ever imo. The Chinese are smarter than we think. As for the markets, it’s going to be devastating for many. As those who locked in at ~2% mortgages come due for renewal at 10% many will lose everything.

Luckily, variable rate mortgages make up a pretty low percentage of mortgages. My strategy is the same as Classlessguy. I’m paying down my mortgage, mortgage is open at renewal and I can pay as much as I want without penalty. The goal is to make this as painless as possible.

Where do you see that they make up a low percentage? CMHC report put that over 50% mortgages in second half of 2021 and continuing into 2022 were variable. Not questioning just looking for the resource for the future. I still have 3 years at 2.7 and then I will be over halfway to paying off when I come due. Have a heloc but no balance.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

Where do you see that they make up a low percentage? CMHC report put that over 50% mortgages in second half of 2021 and continuing into 2022 were variable. Not questioning just looking for the resource for the future. I still have 3 years at 2.7 and then I will be over halfway to paying off when I come due. Have a heloc but no balance.

People may have gone variable in 2021-2022, which if they did is pretty foolish considering this could be seen from miles away, but yeah, I’m pretty sure fixed rate mortgages made up nearly 80% of Canadian Mortgages prior to 2020.

Here is says 72% Fixed vs. Variable Mortgage Rates | Comparing Pros and Cons | Ratehub.ca.

 

[LeHab]

China has major problems, they are forced into it. Their markets are a mess. They getting desperate, no room for financial growth. Long term future is AI. China will know it. Taiwan offers technology they need. That is what they go for

Yes their economy is stagnating - understimulated covid economy, RE issues + the zero covid policy but for long term Belt and Road Initiative is an ambitious way to unlock economic growth.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Men and women will continue to behave the way they have since beginning of time.

Humans have acted in many forms and structures throughout our +/- 250k years of history, spending roughly 95% of that as mostly nomadic egalitarians. And different agricultures spread different kinds of labor division and behaviors, like communal rice production that demanded a large labor force which was rotated and equally divided, while other agricultures had less work force and more labor division, like wheat. All this created very different behaviors and traditions. Different cultures and mindsets, incorporating so many other area-specific factors.

The only true reductionism "doing what we've always done" is to change.

The real question is, are we heading in the right direction with how we are changing and how we have changed our environment?

 

[SOLR]

China will not be invading Taiwan ever imo. The Chinese are smarter than we think. As for the markets, it’s going to be devastating for many. As those who locked in at ~2% mortgages come due for renewal at 10% many will lose everything.

Luckily, variable rate mortgages make up a pretty low percentage of mortgages. My strategy is the same as Classlessguy. I’m paying down my mortgage, mortgage is open at renewal and I can pay as much as I want without penalty. The goal is to make this as painless as possible.

There is another way to think about this: accepting that high-interest rates also mean a high propensity for significant future return on capital once the pure bear phase has passed. One could imagine many situations where paying the mortgage (of a declining value asset) is not the right way to go about it (burning capital on a subpar ship). Rather it's to catch the next train, like buying a 2nd, or 3rd home when they are their lowest (for example) - or providing capital to the next wave of high-value companies early (ie. buying Tesla early and getting 30-100x returns). I understand the sleeping better at night effect that comes with paying debt, but one has to be aware that there is another side to this medal.

The macro trend on house values is tied to the demographic shifts mostly, in NA (including Mexico!) this will mean a growing market as we grow via immigration from outside the American zone of influence. Everywhere else (there might be a few exceptions, Argentina, France, Turkey, Indonesia, Vietnam) will be pretty bad. The countries I named as exceptions, still either have the remains of a colonial empire (France, Turkey), have the inputs to do it all on their own (Indonesia, Argentina) or are still affiliated with the US network from afar with a healthy demographic structure (Vietnam).

 

[Shabs]

Serious question to the experts here: if you were sitting on cash now, what would you do with it?

 

[SOLR]

Serious question to the experts here: if you were sitting on cash now, what would you do with it?

Sit on cash

 

[DailyKaizen]

Taking a beating on my wealthsimple accounts. I also increased my mortgage payment since the start of covid since we were part of the lucky ones that were already working from home, + saving 2k in daycare a month.

$2k for daycare per month? You must be including the additional fuel costs to bring the kids there and back right?