OT: Lets talk about stocks (Part 3)

[HuGort]

Serious question to the experts here: if you were sitting on cash now, what would you do with it?

Loaded question. I gamble more then most so my opinion bit bias. To be safe, The 2 year treasury crossed 4% yesterday. Usually means Junk bonds, BBs and up, I imagine you should end up high single digits. Locked in a year, GIC should yield 5%. Those are some nice short term fixed income options

If it's my cash. European market this winter, emerging markets. I would wait for dollar to cross 200 day moving average. The war is creating major energy crisis in Europe. Their markets going to be pounded. Here at home, average joe investor, I would Probably put half locked in one year around 5% fixed income guaranteed. Other half I would hold off yet, I think market will slip some more. In next two months I would buy value stocks. Which are dividend yield paying stocks. They usually safest as we are headed into turbulence. Expect a recession. Probably esrly-mid 2023.

 

[ClasslessGuy]

$2k for daycare per month? You must be including the additional fuel costs to bring the kids there and back right?

Nop, 55$ a day for one and 50$ for the other, when the first one was done we moved to a bigger house lol moved part of this money to a bigger mortgage

 

[LeHab]

Serious question to the experts here: if you were sitting on cash now, what would you do with it?

Not an expert but you should at least consider your risk tolerance level and horizon.

Quantitative Easing inflated asset values (RE and stocks) over the past years. Now Quantitative Tightening will start removing this excess and deflate asset values in addition to all other factors. Not sure how fast Feds want to proceed but I guess they can also stop or reverse if things get too desperate. Except on paper Feds don't care about stock prices, only about inflation and employment.

In short, a lot of unknowns going forward. Going to be a bumpy ride for sure.

 

[HuGort]

Loaded question. I gamble more then most so my opinion bit bias. To be safe, The 2 year treasury crossed 4% yesterday. Usually means Junk bonds, BBs and up, I imagine you should end up high single digits. Locked in a year, GIC should yield 5%. Those are some nice short term fixed income options

If it's my cash. European market this winter, emerging markets. I would wait for dollar to cross 200 day moving average. The war is creating major energy crisis in Europe. Their markets going to be pounded. Here at home, average joe investor, I would Probably put half locked in one year around 5% fixed income guaranteed. Other half I would hold off yet, I think market will slip some more. In next two months I would buy value stocks. Which are dividend yield paying stocks. They usually safest as we are headed into turbulence. Expect a recession. Probably esrly-mid 2023.

Yesterday, I forgot to add best to hold those stocks for three years or so. Going to be awhile before we get back to last year's highs. Which was S&P around 4,800. But buy low 3,000s sell high 4,000s be 50% gain in three years during recession. Not bad!

 

[QuebecPride]

Serious question to the experts here: if you were sitting on cash now, what would you do with it?

What is the money for? (Project, House, vacation, Retirement, etc?)

How long of a horizon do you have before you need that money?

If it's for retirement, and retirement is in 5+ years, then yeah you can invest in the stock market.

As a previous poster said, make sure you know what you're getting into though and understand somewhat how markets work and whatnot.

Staying in cash will prevent hypothetical losses should the stock market keep going down a bit, but it will guarantee you losing money to inflation, which is quite high right now.

It's not a bad time to invest in the markets if you're in there for the long run.

If it's less than 5 years, you can look at GICs that now have interesting rates. You can get 4% returns pretty easily GICs of 2-3 years. That won't beat current inflation, but it might keep par with it over 3 years.

 

[HuGort]

What is the money for? (Project, House, vacation, Retirement, etc?)

How long of a horizon do you have before you need that money?

If it's for retirement, and retirement is in 5+ years, then yeah you can invest in the stock market.

As a previous poster said, make sure you know what you're getting into though and understand somewhat how markets work and whatnot.

Staying in cash will prevent hypothetical losses should the stock market keep going down a bit, but it will guarantee you losing money to inflation, which is quite high right now.

It's not a bad time to invest in the markets if you're in there for the long run.

If it's less than 5 years, you can look at GICs that now have interesting rates. You can get 4% returns pretty easily GICs of 2-3 years. That won't beat current inflation, but it might keep par with it over 3 years.

Yup, long run markets be back. But next 3-5 years risky.

Real chance we go to some kind of world recession/depression. Which likely force a world war type conflict. China is a mess. They love money also. Dangerous! I see on 60 minutes other night Biden warned them not to enter Taiwan. Then next day White House walked it down a bit.

Putin you never know what he will do. Russia itself not much of an affect against the west. Look at all trouble they ran into against Ukraine? Russia has 150 million people and the GNP of an average state in USA. War is expensive. Has to be killing them. Has to come out in the wash somewhere.

 

[QuebecPride]

Yup, long run markets be back. But next 3-5 years risky.

Real chance we go to some kind of world recession/depression. Which likely force a world war type conflict. China is a mess. They love money also. Dangerous! I see on 60 minutes other night Biden warned them not to enter Taiwan. Then next day White House walked it down a bit.

Putin you never know what he will do. Russia itself not much of an affect against the west. Look at all trouble they ran into against Ukraine? Russia has 150 million people and the GNP of an average state in USA. War is expensive. Has to be killing them. Has to come out in the wash somewhere.

Markets are always risky on a shorter horizon. It's over the long run that the risk goes down a lot.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

Not an expert but you should at least consider your risk tolerance level and horizon.

Quantitative Easing inflated asset values (RE and stocks) over the past years. Now Quantitative Tightening will start removing this excess and deflate asset values in addition to all other factors. Not sure how fast Feds want to proceed but I guess they can also stop or reverse if things get too desperate. Except on paper Feds don't care about stock prices, only about inflation and employment.

In short, a lot of unknowns going forward. Going to be a bumpy ride for sure.

The fed is f***ed this time imo. We are nearing the end game of the dollar as the World Reserve Currency. They can’t really do enough QT to help and they can’t raise interest rates fast enough. There are damned if they do and damned if they don’t.

We’re entering unchartered territory. I don’t think the house of cards can continue for much longer. This will be rough, but decentralized blockchain is the answer. Can’t give the power of the currency over to thIs criminal cartel ever again.

 

[SOLR]

The fed is f***ed this time imo. We are nearing the end game of the dollar as the World Reserve Currency. They can’t really do enough QT to help and they can’t raise interest rates fast enough. There are damned if they do and damned if they don’t.

We’re entering unchartered territory. I don’t think the house of cards can continue for much longer. This will be rough, but decentralized blockchain is the answer. Can’t give the power of the currency over to thIs criminal cartel ever again.

Problem is, decentralized blockchains need to be quantum-proof first.

 

[montreal]

What is the Fed Doing? - A Wealth of Common Sense

WTF is the Fed thinking?

awealthofcommonsense.com

 

[Non Player Canadiens]

We’re entering unchartered territory. I don’t think the house of cards can continue for much longer. This will be rough, but decentralized blockchain is the answer. Can’t give the power of the currency over to thIs criminal cartel ever again.

you think the current Wall St mAsTeRmInDs are a "criminal cartel" but you're willing to run into crypto bros' open arms? Wolf of Wall St, the Big Short, crypto... these are the same people. trying to make a quick buck without creating anything of value, and when they cash out regular investors are left holding the bag. and with crypto it's even more transparent how much of a scam it all is.

 

[QuebecPride]

What is the Fed Doing? - A Wealth of Common Sense

WTF is the Fed thinking?

awealthofcommonsense.com

As usual, Ben Carlson is spot on.

 

[HuGort]

What is the Fed Doing? - A Wealth of Common Sense

WTF is the Fed thinking?

awealthofcommonsense.com

Feds certainly made a mess of things. Inflation got a major jump on them. I don't know they were thinking early 2021 when they said inflation is transitory. Anybody buying lumber, housing, it was crazy high a year and half ago

Cars now, I checked out trading my Camry yesterday. In 4 years price has gone up 12k?

 

[HuGort]

Watching the news I think half the male Russians between 20-50 are sneaking out of the country. Guess they don't like Putin's drsft

 

[LeHab]

As usual, Ben Carlson is spot on.

Feds have a dual mandate: employment and price stability/long term moderate interest rates. Stocks prices are out of scope, not sure why article is concerned about that. While everyone would love 100% employment rate this is not realistic. Unemployment is unusually low driving wages which fuel higher prices (core inflation). Rising rates in the short term is a way to help curb demand and bring unemployment back to historical range. Will they overshoot? Risk is certainly there.

Combine with years of free money on low interest rates, covid overstimulation, supply issues and so and we are in uncharted territory for sure.

 

[LeHab]

you think the current Wall St mAsTeRmInDs are a "criminal cartel" but you're willing to run into crypto bros' open arms? Wolf of Wall St, the Big Short, crypto... these are the same people. trying to make a quick buck without creating anything of value, and when they cash out regular investors are left holding the bag. and with crypto it's even more transparent how much of a scam it all is.

Will be interesting how crypto adoption goes in poorer countries with highly volatile economies and a lot corruption at the top. People there have least to lose by switching to crypto. Russia and China already see the crypto threat to autocracy and have banned transactions.

Will take a long time for Western countries to take the leap of faith at scale, unless maybe something like WW3 speeds things up.

 

[QuebecPride]

Feds have a dual mandate: employment and price stability/long term moderate interest rates. Stocks prices are out of scope, not sure why article is concerned about that. While everyone would love 100% employment rate this is not realistic. Unemployment is unusually low driving wages which fuel higher prices (core inflation). Rising rates in the short term is a way to help curb demand and bring unemployment back to historical range. Will they overshoot? Risk is certainly there.

Combine with years of free money on low interest rates, covid overstimulation, supply issues and so and we are in uncharted territory for sure.

It feels like the Fed is trying to fix a mistake, by making a mistake. Inflation should be controlled, but why not wait a couple of months to see the effect of the current raises before committing to more raises and risking a big recession that wasn't necessary in the first place.

If inflation is 4-5% in 2023, is it really the end of the world? The Fed looks to aim to go from 7% to 2% as quickly as possible.

They have a tough job, but it does feel like they're going heavy on the interest rates.

you think the current Wall St mAsTeRmInDs are a "criminal cartel" but you're willing to run into crypto bros' open arms? Wolf of Wall St, the Big Short, crypto... these are the same people. trying to make a quick buck without creating anything of value, and when they cash out regular investors are left holding the bag. and with crypto it's even more transparent how much of a scam it all is.

Joe Weisenthal was quote-tweeting someone yesterday or this week saying NFT trading has been down 97%. I guess it was fun and entertaining while it lasted. I know @waffledave made a fortune with NFTs and whatnot. Hopefully no HFhabs posters got caught holding the bag.

 

[waffledave]

Joe Weisenthal was quote-tweeting someone yesterday or this week saying NFT trading has been down 97%. I guess it was fun and entertaining while it lasted. I know @waffledave made a fortune with NFTs and whatnot. Hopefully no HFhabs posters got caught holding the bag.

There is still money to be made in NFTs but ultimately someone is always left bagholding. The free money printer is running out of ink but it isn't out just yet. The gains are in the hundreds rather than thousands, but there are still opportunities to do this a few times per day.

If you're looking to hold NFTs they need to be tokens with a legit business behind them that reward holders with profits. For example, I have one that is backed by a company that sells services to other NFT projects, and it provides me with around $100-200 per week. Not huge money but enough that I don't need to buy crypto anymore to be in the NFT space. Of course, it's ultimately in the ponzi given that the money they make comes from the growth of the NFT space.

I'd say that during this bear cycle, profits are way down, but growth in the NFT space is still huge, particularly on the Solana blockchain. MagicEden, the main Solana NFT marketplace still has over 100k Solana volume per day and much more when more hyped projects are released.

 

[LeHab]

It feels like the Fed is trying to fix a mistake, by making a mistake. Inflation should be controlled, but why not wait a couple of months to see the effect of the current raises before committing to more raises and risking a big recession that wasn't necessary in the first place.

If inflation is 4-5% in 2023, is it really the end of the world? The Fed looks to aim to go from 7% to 2% as quickly as possible.

They have a tough job, but it does feel like they're going heavy on the interest rates.

CPI is a lagging indicator and Feds can certainly overshoot with rates. So many moving parts no one really knows what is going to happen. Think they are betting excess from COVID stimulus in the system will ease upcoming recession, that is what BoC seems to hope for.

Also agree we should roll with a slightly higher inflation for a while but on the other hand 4-5% interest rates are not unusual. Except for the past +decade of near interest free money.

 

[SOLR]

Feds have a dual mandate: employment and price stability/long term moderate interest rates. Stocks prices are out of scope, not sure why article is concerned about that. While everyone would love 100% employment rate this is not realistic. Unemployment is unusually low driving wages which fuel higher prices (core inflation). Rising rates in the short term is a way to help curb demand and bring unemployment back to historical range. Will they overshoot? Risk is certainly there.

Combine with years of free money on low interest rates, covid overstimulation, supply issues and so and we are in uncharted territory for sure.

But the inflation is not really on the demand side. The real inflation is on the supply side because of de-globalization.

 

[HuGort]

I am getting hit hard today. Tesla down 7-8%. It makes up majority of my investments. Since this latest downturn has occurred in market. started around August 17th. TSLA largely been holding. Until now.

 

[jellybeans]

I am getting hit hard today. Tesla down 7-8%. It makes up majority of my investments. Since this latest downturn has occurred in market. started around August 17th. TSLA largely been holding. Until now.

I made some good coins with Tesla and thought that was it for me but if it goes to 200$ i will get back in my biggest holding right now is Nio but i'm getting crushed with it and so are 95% of my other stocks.

 

[LeHab]

But the inflation is not really on the demand side. The real inflation is on the supply side because of de-globalization.

Many sources of inflation at the moment and money supply is really all Feds can influence. Eventually if you destroy enough demand, price increases will not be sustainable.

Politicians are not helping by pouring more oil on the fire to "combat" inflation.

 

[LeHab]

Euro zone hits double digit inflation. Germany at 10.9% with energy costs up 44% in September, ouch. Going to be a long winter especially if pipelines keep blowing up.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Core hit 4.8% which is quite reasonable but energy costs are unlikely to subside anytime soon.

 

[HuGort]

Euro zone hits double digit inflation. Germany at 10.9% with energy costs up 44% in September, ouch. Going to be a long winter especially if pipelines keep blowing up.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Core hit 4.8% which is quite reasonable but energy costs are unlikely to subside anytime soon.

War is killing their markets over there.