OT: Lets talk about stocks (Part 3)

[SOLR]

Do they really have that much higher of talent in terms of manufacturing or is it a result of the conditions they allow manufacturing to occur at? I mean that in the sense of environmental protections (chemical manufacturing) and use of forced labour/child labour/etc. Chemical manufacturing is much cheaper when you can just dump all your waste in the river.

Sure they have little rules, but what I'm pointing at is the 16 hrs/day work ethic that is cultural and quite special around the world. That is their competitive advantage. i.e. rules would change and they would still have the work ethic. The same culture exists in Taiwan, where TSMC, ASUS etc. are based. And I'm not even talking about the manufacturing centers with crazy practices to compel that work ethic even more...

That's why Vietnam is winning so many new factories, they have a similar culture. Everything that needs serious manufacturing, but doesn't quite need the high-end work ethic is moving to Mexico. Mexicans are very very good - but they don't work 16 hours.

I'm not making a judgment of value here.

 

[Andrei79]

Classic venture play, 0 or lots.



The real criminals are in China on this one. I think they could land this inflation ship if it wasn't for what is happening over there.

I agree with what you've been saying here in recent months. It's deeply worrying what's going on in China. I'll add Michael Burry just sold most Scions US stocks. I know evidence based investing says to keep with the plan, but Im keeping a lot of cash on hand.

 

[HuGort]

Oil up over $90 again, S&P slipped badly yesterday. Down slightly for the week. Growth stocks took a hit. A lot hinges on oil

 

[SOLR]

I agree with what you've been saying here in recent months. It's deeply worrying what's going on in China. I'll add Michael Burry just sold most Scions US stocks. I know evidence based investing says to keep with the plan, but Im keeping a lot of cash on hand.

Not that I follow him closely, but in the case of Burry etc. - keep in my that the reporting of holdings is like a picture at an X time, at X+1 second, he might have very different holdings and not have to report on them for a while.

This is a mountain of matches looking for a spark. A spark that is sure to come, unfortunately, we just don't know from where exactly.

1) Russians/Ukrainian blowing up pipelines/Nuclear reactors in Ukraine
2) Transhipment of Russian crude likely impacting African oil and downstream markets | African Energy (if the West stops this, Russian crude will cease to exist in 3 months)
3) European gas crisis economic effects, creates contagion in China (Europe is a big part of Chinese supply chains)
etc.

 

[HuGort]

Here we go again. Another dip? How many f..... Times!

 

[LyricalLyricist]

Oil up over $90 again, S&P slipped badly yesterday. Down slightly for the week. Growth stocks took a hit. A lot hinges on oil

I’m wondering how oil prices will be once Russian sanctions appear and USA stops releasing oil from SPR in October. We might be back at 120$.

 

[LeHab]

Here we go again. Another dip? How many f..... Times!

Expecting a bumpy ride for the near future.

I’m wondering how oil prices will be once Russian sanctions appear and USA stops releasing oil from SPR in October. We might be back at 120$.

There is a potential Nuclear deal with Iran which will lift oil sanctions there. There is also a decrease in oil demand following Summer. We also switch to winter-blend gasoline which is cheaper to produce. On the other hand some refiners are going into maintenance mode which will reduce production capacity. OPEC will probably tighten supply to offset Iran Oil release.

 

[LyricalLyricist]

There is a potential Nuclear deal with Iran which will lift oil sanctions there. There is also a decrease in oil demand following Summer. We also switch to winter-blend gasoline which is cheaper to produce. On the other hand some refiners are going into maintenance mode which will reduce production capacity. OPEC will probably tighten supply to offset Iran Oil release.

There has been a potential nuclear deal for a LONG time. Its been dragging for a long time and they haven't come to a conclusion yet.

Europe has already said they will consider switching to oil for certain things vs natural gas in winter.

USA's SPR is lowest its been in 35 years and still going lower. They've already used majority premium crude in their releases.

OPEC may or may not. They said they might.

Add in fact Russian oil sanctions come into effect by EOY. This can get messy. They're hoping everyone agrees to a price cap but all it takes is Russia to say no and the entire world is f***ed. Its volatile and with USA already draining SPR the cushion is getting smaller.

We'll see what happens but unless a recession officially occurs this may end up returning back to high oil prices.

 

[DailyKaizen]

Expecting a bumpy ride for the near future.


There is a potential Nuclear deal with Iran which will lift oil sanctions there. There is also a decrease in oil demand following Summer. We also switch to winter-blend gasoline which is cheaper to produce. On the other hand some refiners are going into maintenance mode which will reduce production capacity. OPEC will probably tighten supply to offset Iran Oil release.

Forgive my ignore but who exactly is "we" in the switching of winter blend fuel? I didn't even know this was done? Please enlighten me?

 

[LeHab]

Forgive my ignore but who exactly is "we" in the switching of winter blend fuel? I didn't even know this was done? Please enlighten me?

We = Society

SUMMER GASOLINE​

In the warmer months, gasoline has a greater chance of evaporating from your car’s fuel system. This can produce additional smog and increased emissions. Refiners reduce the chance of gas evaporation in your car during the summer by producing gasoline blends that have lower Reid vapor pressure (RVP), or lower volatility. These blends vary from state-to-state, region-to-region due to RVP state regulations. They also vary by octane level.

Cost for your wallet: According to NACS, this higher-grade fuel can add up to 15 cents per gallon to the cost of your fill-up. This excludes the increased cost due to summer fuel demand, which can vary between 5-15c/gal, depending on region. More stringent requirements (like California) can mean an even higher cost.

WINTER GASOLINE​

In winter, gasoline blends have a higher Reid vapor pressure, meaning they evaporate more easily and allow gasoline to ignite more easily to start your car in cold temperatures. This blend is cheaper to produce, which results in lower gas prices at the pumps from late September through late April.

Cost for your wallet: Prices typically fall 10-30c/gal starting in mid/ late September through late November as gas stations switch to winter gasoline and demand for gasoline falls seasonally as we start to stay closer to home. Many retailers continue to sell summer gas until their inventories run out before then selling winter gasoline. Hurricane season can also affect prices before the switch, ending in a squeeze just before the switch since refiners don’t want excess expensive summer gasoline sitting around and especially if refineries are in the path of a major storm.

The Difference Between Summer-Blend and Winter-Blend Gasoline

We’re talking about the cost differences between summer and winter gasoline along with how to save money on your fill-up.

www.gasbuddy.com

 

[DailyKaizen]

We = Society

The Difference Between Summer-Blend and Winter-Blend Gasoline

We’re talking about the cost differences between summer and winter gasoline along with how to save money on your fill-up.

www.gasbuddy.com

Wow! Many thanks for that @LeHab very much appreciated

 

[LeHab]

Wow! Many thanks for that @LeHab very much appreciated

Also only found out about this not long ago.

 

[HuGort]

Looks like another major drop in stock market. How far will we fall this time?

Doesn't sound good. First time ever I can recall a Fed Chairman saying will be pain in households and businesses. Expects long periods of substained low growth.

Back in '21, I think they miss estimate inflation. Fed said it was transitory. But you could tell by prices a year ago it was. Lumber, housing prices, eyc... Could all be a cover because he didn't want to bump interest rates during Covid shutdown. Sounds more like real story. Because I can't believe a Fed Chairman could be that stupid.

 

[HuGort]

I ever get out of stock market I'll never be back

 

[All Star John Scott]

Sea of Red

 

[QuebecPride]

It's another good time to invest ladies and gents. As the crypto boys would say, buy the dip.

 

[HuGort]

It's another good time to invest ladies and gents. As the crypto boys would say, buy the dip.

This down turn been hard on me. I know in long run make more money in stocks but probably better off investing in 4%GIC. No head aches less worries

 

[BehindTheTimes]

Looks like another major drop in stock market. How far will we fall this time?

Doesn't sound good. First time ever I can recall a Fed Chairman saying will be pain in households and businesses. Expects long periods of substained low growth.

Back in '21, I think they miss estimate inflation. Fed said it was transitory. But you could tell by prices a year ago it was. Lumber, housing prices, eyc... Could all be a cover because he didn't want to bump interest rates during Covid shutdown. Sounds more like real story. Because I can't believe a Fed Chairman could be that stupid.

I mean rumour has it the fed acted too soon and was overly aggressive. Inflation would be gone over night. Oops.

It's another good time to invest ladies and gents. As the crypto boys would say, buy the dip.

We ain’t seen nothing yet. This dip is for ants.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

When does real crash happen? Over/under end of sept? I

 

[the paisanos guy]

This down turn been hard on me. I know in long run make more money in stocks but probably better off investing in 4%GIC. No head aches less worries

Don't kneejerk into GICs which won't even match inflation. The solution is to stop gambling with stock picks and invest in broad market ETFs. Headaches will disappear overnight.

 

[HuGort]

Don't kneejerk into GICs which won't even match inflation. The solution is to stop gambling with stock picks and invest in broad market ETFs. Headaches will disappear overnight.

It will be 3 or 4 years before the market is back

 

[the paisanos guy]

It will be 3 or 4 years before the market is back

You have no way of knowing that

 

[Non Player Canadiens]

We ain’t seen nothing yet. This dip is for ants.

When is the big crash coming? Do you have a timeline?

Just asking because "it's going to happen one day" is not a super interesting prediction, because it's always eventually true. Could be in one month could be in 100 years.

Last month I got @SOLR to clarify his "financial implosion" of China prediction to December 2023, hopefully I can remember by then

 

[HuGort]

You have no way of knowing that

There's too much wrong.

 

[SOLR]

When is the big crash coming? Do you have a timeline?

Just asking because "it's going to happen one day" is not a super interesting prediction, because it's always eventually true. Could be in one month could be in 100 years.

Last month I got @SOLR to clarify his "financial implosion" of China prediction to December 2023, hopefully I can remember by then

Don't think I gave you an exact date either. The hard part in any future-looking statement is seeing the pieces that will unfold, but there are always human survival behaviours that makes planning difficult.

Moreover, we are already in "the big crash".

1) Stocks are way down ---> expect consequences
2) 10% inflation, faster than wage increases ---> expect consequences
3) Real estate is crashing --> expect consequences
4) The energy situation in Europe is a time bomb of high probability
5) The real estate situation in China is a time bomb of high probability
6) Interest rates are going up fast (less loans, more saving, less money supply = slow down)
7) Unemployment is about to start going up if only because startups won't get their next round of financing, and the big 5 are already conducting shadow layoffs via coming back to the office orders.
8) Demographic is terminal, everywhere where there is capital. Beyond high probability that most countries economies will go down for the next 35-40 years. Only the US millenials will rebound that sinking ship, and only for 10 years.

What did you think it would look like, like 1929? It's 2022, you are in it. +The 4 horsemans (war, famine, pandemics, financial collapse) come together, always...the famine part is likely and accelerate the others 3.)

When does real crash happen? Over/under end of sept? I

January/Feb is my guess. Real estate and unemployment are what always pushes it down - real estate is going but it's not quite there yet - unemployment is a slow-moving trend.