OT: Lets talk about stocks (Part 3)

[HuGort]

Market seems to be reacting inverse to oil. Last 3 weeks oil has been dipping, we seen the S&P go from 3,600 to 4,100. Last 2 days oil has bounced back above $90 a barrel. The S&P slipped again today

 

[DailyKaizen]

Everybody is holding their breathe. Don't know if this another bear bounce or we on way to recovery? Been a hard year.

Never let a hard year go to waste.

 

[LeHab]

US CPI coming tomorrow. Headline is expected to finally slightly decrease while Core will continue climbing.

 

[HuGort]

I see Elon Musk sold a bunch of Tesla stock yesterday. Last two times he sold stock Tesla dipped mightily. This April and last November

 

[Andrei79]

I know the Fed talks about the job market in regards to not being in a recession despite the dips in GPD. However, the housing market is starting to go down even in Quebec, rent is driven up again and for the first time in a long time, people I know are getting laid off by their employers. I know we're in a market with a lot of demand for workers, but it feels like businesses are bracing themselves and everything is slowing down. I know a lot of them have more cash than ever, so they can better weather the storm, but if they stop hiring and start cutting expenses through their workforce, it will only matter for their bottom line.

Thoughts ?

 

[HuGort]

I know the Fed talks about the job market in regards to not being in a recession despite the dips in GPD. However, the housing market is starting to go down even in Quebec, rent is driven up again and for the first time in a long time, people I know are getting laid off by their employers. I know we're in a market with a lot of demand for workers, but it feels like businesses are bracing themselves and everything is slowing down. I know a lot of them have more cash than ever, so they can better weather the storm, but if they stop hiring and start cutting expenses through their workforce, it will only matter for their bottom line.

Thoughts ?

To me the job market tells me not typical recession. For recessions in the past couldn't get a job. Most of the jobs available are entry level jobs. But How bad can it be when everybody who wants to work will have at least, spending money? Be a soft landing I predict.

Many cashed out of stocks last winter. Lots of cash sitting on sidelines. Not going to take much good news for stock to jump.

 

[Stanley Cup]

I know the Fed talks about the job market in regards to not being in a recession despite the dips in GPD. However, the housing market is starting to go down even in Quebec, rent is driven up again and for the first time in a long time, people I know are getting laid off by their employers. I know we're in a market with a lot of demand for workers, but it feels like businesses are bracing themselves and everything is slowing down. I know a lot of them have more cash than ever, so they can better weather the storm, but if they stop hiring and start cutting expenses through their workforce, it will only matter for their bottom line.

Thoughts ?

The bullish argument right now is that the pandemic cleansed/shook off the weaker balance sheets and that only the stronger companies are still out there. We're at record unemployment, so even if we went up by a few % points, we'd still have a strong labor market and arguably healthier. To be honest, if the inflation drops significantly in the next 6 months, I'd argue we'll have one of the strongest growth stages in the past 3-4 decades. Tech companies are the first to lay off people because they tend to borrow the most in order to finance their growth and thus they are strongly affected by the rate hikes. We're far from a hard recession IMO, unless the inflation pace keeps up but the base effect is about to kick in so that should cool off soon enough.

 

[SOLR]

I know the Fed talks about the job market in regards to not being in a recession despite the dips in GPD. However, the housing market is starting to go down even in Quebec, rent is driven up again and for the first time in a long time, people I know are getting laid off by their employers. I know we're in a market with a lot of demand for workers, but it feels like businesses are bracing themselves and everything is slowing down. I know a lot of them have more cash than ever, so they can better weather the storm, but if they stop hiring and start cutting expenses through their workforce, it will only matter for their bottom line.

Thoughts ?

The incoming financial implosion of China, leading to contagion.

The bullish argument right now is that the pandemic cleansed/shook off the weaker balance sheets and that only the stronger companies are still out there. We're at record unemployment, so even if we went up by a few % points, we'd still have a strong labor market and arguably healthier. To be honest, if the inflation drops significantly in the next 6 months, I'd argue we'll have one of the strongest growth stages in the past 3-4 decades. Tech companies are the first to lay off people because they tend to borrow the most in order to finance their growth and thus they are strongly affected by the rate hikes. We're far from a hard recession IMO, unless the inflation pace keeps up but the basis effect is about to kick in so that should cool off soon enough.

Not only the stronger companies, hell no.

 

[Hacketts]

buy a couple million shares of etek and just wait a bit, and you'll profit.

About to be merged.

 

[Non Player Canadiens]

The incoming financial implosion of China, leading to contagion.

Timeline for this? Predictions are worthless unless they're bounded

 

[SOLR]

Timeline for this? Predictions are worthless unless they're bounded

3-16 months - it's a large spread because the Chinese are good are creating pixie dust.

Sri Lanka is out
Pakistan is out
Much more to come (look at all the main belt&road countries in particular)

The war in Ukraine is also a significant factor - as it might put Europe in a deep recession this winter creating the spark. It's a core Chinese market.

 

[HuGort]

The incoming financial implosion of China, leading to contagion.



Not only the stronger companies, hell no.

Is that why China suddenly pushing hard for Taiwan?

 

[SOLR]

Is that why China suddenly pushing hard for Taiwan?

This is why they are distracting their population by pretending to be pushing hard for Taiwan.

In reality, they cannot push hard for Taiwan.

1) They would need to move troops in an offensive position, something that they could not hide from satellites: this is not happening.

2) They are moving troops internally to defend the banks!

3) China imports 75% of their oil from Saudi Arabia, it would take 1 US or Australian or Indian destroyer to cut that flow of oil to 0 and kill 50% of the Chinese population by starvation in 6 months. They cannot defend that shipping lane at all. If they tried - again we would see that from Space and this is where the US would have a field day with the Chinese fleet that becomes totally useless 300km from their coast (Nuclear power vs. Diesel).

So yes, they can fly 70-ish planes (lol) around the island, and send their ships on an undefended "blockade" (parade) - because they know Japan, US, Australian, Taiwan, India are not going to interact, outside of talking to the media. In a real scenario, the allies would totally interdict the blockade.

 

[Non Player Canadiens]

3) China imports 75% of their oil from Saudi Arabia, it would take 1 US or Australian or Indian destroyer to cut that flow of oil to 0 and kill 50% of the Chinese population by starvation in 6 months. They cannot defend that shipping lane at all. If they tried - again we would see that from Space and this is where the US would have a field day with the Chinese fleet that becomes totally useless 300km from their coast (Nuclear power vs. Diesel).

Interesting take, thank you.

Say it was 'only' starvation of 100M Chinese... that would be a humanitarian crisis on apocalyptic proportions caused by the West's blockade. Regardless of 'who started it' that could be a horrible look for the blockading countries. I wonder if China would be willing to take that risk that blockage-caused starvation blowback would prevent the West from actually doing it...

 

[SOLR]

Interesting take, thank you.

Say it was 'only' starvation of 100M Chinese... that would be a humanitarian crisis on apocalyptic proportions caused by the West's blockade. Regardless of 'who started it' that could be a horrible look for the blockading countries. I wonder if China would be willing to take that risk that blockage-caused starvation blowback would prevent the West from actually doing it...

The risk you mentioned could easily be spinned by the western media "the military is taking all the resources away from the people"

Moreover in a famine scenario, the government falls in 1 month...

See Peter Zeihan.
My father retired from the army and this is a well known reality in military circles.

 

[LeHab]

3) China imports 75% of their oil from Saudi Arabia, it would take 1 US or Australian or Indian destroyer to cut that flow of oil to 0 and kill 50% of the Chinese population by starvation in 6 months. They cannot defend that shipping lane at all. If they tried - again we would see that from Space and this is where the US would have a field day with the Chinese fleet that becomes totally useless 300km from their coast (Nuclear power vs. Diesel).

Russia with its discounted oil overtook Saudi Arabia as the largest exporter of crude oil to China in recent months.

China May oil imports from Russia soar to a record, surpass top supplier Saudi

China's crude oil imports from Russia soared 55% from a year earlier to a record level in May, displacing Saudi Arabia as the top supplier, as refiners cashed in on discounted supplies amid sanctions on Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine.

www.reuters.com

China was also set to become world's largest oil refiner in 2022.

 

[SOLR]

Russia with its discounted oil overtook Saudi Arabia as the largest exporter of crude oil to China in recent months.

China May oil imports from Russia soar to a record, surpass top supplier Saudi

China's crude oil imports from Russia soared 55% from a year earlier to a record level in May, displacing Saudi Arabia as the top supplier, as refiners cashed in on discounted supplies amid sanctions on Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine.

www.reuters.com

China was also set to become world's largest oil refiner in 2022.

By boat...same scenario

The pipeline between Russia and China is very small, I think 1 million gallons a day And it was operated by foreigners, and most experts are saying it will fail in the next 12 months (without any hope of coming back, Russians don't have the skills.)

 

[LeHab]

By boat...same scenario

The pipeline between Russia and China is very small, I think 1 - 1.5 million gallons a month. And it was operated by foreigners, and most experts are saying it will fail in the next 12 months (without any hope of coming back, Russians don't have the skills.)

Can you share sources?

Land transmission is indeed somehow limited in capacity but the primary land supply of oil to China is conducted via ESPO pipeline system operated by Russian Company Transneft.

Eastern Siberia–Pacific Ocean oil pipeline - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[SOLR]

Can you share sources?

Land transmission is indeed somehow limited in capacity but the primary land supply of oil to China is conducted via ESPO pipeline system operated by Russian Company Transneft.

Eastern Siberia–Pacific Ocean oil pipeline - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Russia crude oil pipeline capabilities to mainland China—The ESPO crude oil pipeline

Current capacity of the pipeline, 700 b/d - ( my 1m was right, counting the 2 pipelines)

" The insufficiency in oil transmission capacity will force Russian barrels to take sea routes to mainland China if Russian ships continue to be diverted from countries that have imposed self-sanctions on Russian crudes. Chinese demand for seaborne Russian crude—particularly the ESPO blend and Urals—will remain stable because these are the preferred grades run by most of the independent/large refineries that are owned and operated by national oil companies."

 

[BehindTheTimes]

That $HKD ticker. What a damn fraud. The markets make me sick.

 

[LeHab]

Russia crude oil pipeline capabilities to mainland China—The ESPO crude oil pipeline

Current capacity of the pipeline, 700 b/d - ( my 1m was right, counting the 2 pipelines)

" The insufficiency in oil transmission capacity will force Russian barrels to take sea routes to mainland China if Russian ships continue to be diverted from countries that have imposed self-sanctions on Russian crudes. Chinese demand for seaborne Russian crude—particularly the ESPO blend and Urals—will remain stable because these are the preferred grades run by most of the independent/large refineries that are owned and operated by national oil companies."

You were talking about gallons and not barrels.

Wiki page I shared has also some info on current and planned capacity increases. Anyway China has pretty well diversified sourcing of its crude oil. At the moment still walking that thin line between gobbling on discounted Russian Oil and Western pressure to apply "price caps" on Russian Oil. Similar to India.

 

[SOLR]

You were talking about gallons and not barrels.

Wiki page I shared has also some info on current and planned capacity increases. Anyway China has pretty well diversified sourcing of its crude oil. At the moment still walking that thin line between gobbling on discounted Russian Oil and Western pressure to apply "price caps" on Russian Oil. Similar to India.

In the edit you quoted, that was obviously wrong - corrected what I meant

That $HKD ticker. What a damn fraud. The markets make me sick.

Buy some Alibaba you'll feel better - they said










not

You were talking about gallons and not barrels.

Wiki page I shared has also some info on current and planned capacity increases. Anyway China has pretty well diversified sourcing of its crude oil. At the moment still walking that thin line between gobbling on discounted Russian Oil and Western pressure to apply "price caps" on Russian Oil. Similar to India.

It's not diversified if you can cut 80% of it with 2 destroyers (same destroyer can cut the Iranian oil)

 

[QuebecPride]

 

[McGuires Corndog]

Buckle up buckos, the next 6-12 months will have some fireworks.

 

[BozoTheClown]

Got myself some Centerra Gold shares yesterday as it dip 1.75$.
This should be back up to 8$ eventually. Easy money!

Also, almost bought CS Disco Inc today as it fell over 50%.