GDT: Let the Free Agency Madness begin

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TheReelChuckFletcher

Former TheRillestPaulFenton; Harverd Alum
Jun 30, 2011
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I keep saying it: the EK interest and the TDA interest seems entirely unrelated. I think the Canes clearly are interested in offensive generation across all three pairings. Captain Obvious, yes, but all of these people saying that the TDA deal could be nixed if Karlsson's acquired are clearly either misguided or engaging in wishful thinking (talking about the Twitter twits who still don't like DeAngelo).
 

spockBokk

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Sep 8, 2013
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I wonder what happens if they trade Pesce and also don’t end up with Karlsson. One of DeAngelo or Chatfield then would become a de facto top 4 D.
 

Chrispy

Salakuljettaja's Blues
Feb 25, 2009
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I wonder what happens if they trade Pesce and also don’t end up with Karlsson. One of DeAngelo or Chatfield then would become a de facto top 4 D.
I don't think they deal Pesce until they end up with Karlsson. If they don't, they can still deal Skjei.

Right now:
Slavin-Burns
Orlov-Pesce
Skjei-TDA

(I'd prefer to keep Skjei-Pesce intact and let Orlov anchor his pairing and shoot off TDA passes, but I think the transition game is much better for all 3 pairs this way.)
 

htdoc

Registered User
Oct 30, 2018
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a) I have zero issue with TDA playing 3rd pairing minutes for our team as a good teammate who is well liked in the locker room

b) saying you have a deal in principle on July 1 and then having other opportunities pop up between July 1 and July 9 when said deal can be actually done officially can change the dynamics. There is no official deal until the paperwork is processed and approved by the league. Heck even after the paperwork is done, it can be undone if player shows up to new team with physical injury or situation not known at time of trade.

thinking that Waddell will somehow have his reputation harmed if he has to call Briere in Philly and say “Sorry man, Karlsson picked us to be traded to so I had to switch gears to get the reigning Norris trophy winner who as a defenseman scored 30 points more than any player on my roster last year. Now I’m out of cap and my roster is full because I now have Burns, Karlsson, Pesce and Chatfield as my right side. Pesce won’t let me trade him to any spot I can get a good return. So I’m stuck and now I have to back out of the deal we were going to do. Sorry man. I hope you understand with how things changed I couldn’t say no to getting Karlsson for a second round pick double retained“.

Yeah, it will be fine if we get Karlsson if we have to switch gears on TDA. We may not. We may still need a 3rd pairing offensive dman and the deal still goes through. But if we are tight against the cap with a full complement of right d men still on the roster it won’t happen and that’s ok…
 
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spockBokk

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Sep 8, 2013
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I’d say this at least verifies the Canes were in the mix for Bertuzzi:



My guess is the vast majority of bonus $&& up front pushed the TOR offer over the hump. Though, the Canes might have offered him around $3M or so up front like they did with Bunting and Orlov.
 
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mikeyfan

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Dec 27, 2018
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With the Leafs signing of Domi they will be over 2.4 million over the Cap after they place Muzzin on LTIR. Canes complete the deal with Philly then ship TDA plus Drury to the Leafs for Nylander which will get the Leafs cap compliant once again.

Of course I know this won't happen but its a fun scenario to contemplate.
 
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htdoc

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Oct 30, 2018
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I’d say this at least verifies the Canes were in the mix for Bertuzzi:



My guess is the vast majority of bonus $&& up front pushed the TOR offer over the hump. Though, the Canes might have offered him around $3M or so up front like they did with Bunting and Orlov.

Given our available cap, I’m assuming we offered $5m or $5.25m so we had ourselves covered with 13 forwards and he took the $5.5m that Toronto offered.

Speaking of Toronto, with the Domi signing at $3M, that puts them $8m+ over the cap before LTIR figured in…. And they still need to sign a goalie as no way they should be trusting Murray and Holl as the primary backup….Muzzin for sure going to be on LTIR for the year…. But how do they figure they are getting themselves sorted out cap wise? Bit of a mess there with work to do…
 

Navin R Slavin

Fifth line center
Jan 1, 2011
16,364
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Durrm NC
If Karlsson happens, that deal in principle with TDA most likely doesn't happen anymore unless we trade other existing roster defensemen away as part of the trade for him or in relation to other free agency moves in constructing our roster for next year…...

The one and only thing that drives me nuts about cap friendly is how they try to project next year's roster by sticking minor leaguers on our projected cap and they always get it so wrong. I'm going assume it's because we aren't the center of the hockey universe so they are just clueless about our team........

Right now CapFriendly show us with 15 forwards on our roster, 14 under the “forwards” section and they are showing Svech under long term injured reserve... I don’t have any current medical updates about how well he is recovering… given the power of youth and high end PT programs for these teams, there is the shot he is ready for opening night if he is on the early side of timetable range. Worst case it's a month or two into the season assuming no complications.. So I can give them a pass on putting Svech under LTIR... But putting Rees, Suzuki, Pony AND Drury on our team cap as if they will all be on the big club roster opening night is so not happening. We aren’t carrying 14 forwards on our roster/cap unless forced to do it because of short term injuries…. So why cap friendly is showing it that way makes zero sense and thus peeves me :)…. It skews showing the public looking at the CapFriendly Canes page how much cap room we actually do have.

Depending on what we do moves wise, we may carry 13 forwards and 7 dmen on the roster assuming we have plenty of cap space to run that way. But we easily can run 12/6 and hide some league min guys in the luggage compartment of the plane for the long road trip to start the season... or otherwise do things paperwork wise to have injury replacements that dont count on the cap officially...

The point being... if we are trying to squeeze an elite, mind bending roster of 6 world class d-men that includes EK and Chatfield having to sit in the pressbox to make room, then you adjust and do what you need to do to be cap compliant and keep your options open to keep making moves to our benefit...

Sorry… that is my waaaaaaaaaaaaay too looooooong winded way of saying if you remove Rees, Pony, Suzuki from our cap on cap friendly, we currently have $5.32m in cap space in a 12/6/2 goalie arrangement burying PK in the minors so his full 2m cap hit doesn't count and that includes Svech as one of the active 12 forwards.

If you put Svech on LTIR at the start of the season and one of those minor leaguers (or a different league min guy we sign) plays so we have 12 forwards total while Svech is on LTIR, then we have $12.3m+ in total cap space including the LTIR space….. and that accounts for the $775K cap hit of the guy taking Svech's roster spot so we have 12 forwards...

With Svech on LTIR to start the season you roughly are looking at the following lineup at that 12.3m+ LTIR cap space to make other moves:

Bunting - Aho - Jarvis
TT - KK - Necas
Martinook - Staal - Fast
Noesen - Drury - Pono/Rees/free agent signing aka Stephan at league min

Slavin - Burns
Skjei - Pesce
Orlov - Chatfield

Anderson - Raanta

Not ideal in terms of improved forward lineup, but we can roll with 6 d men above without having to do anything with Skjei/Pesce and still have the $12.3M+ in cap space…

Return Svech back to the lineup from LTIR and send the extra 4th liner down and we have $5.3m+ accruing towards a crazy amount of deadline cap space to make moves then..

Get to the damn point, you say? We have a lot more cap space available to us with Pesce/Skjei staying on the roster than what people seem to be thinking, and certainly more than CapFriendly is showing on their website right now... We can make some big moves and still potentially keep one or both of Pesce/Skjei on the team as an own rental... or We can make some big moves and (assuming we didn't have to trade either of those D men as part of the trade) we can move those dmen for futures and the freed up cap space or as part of another bigger move to improve the forwards...

Whew......

OK... on to the Karlsson rumor now that I've laid the groundwork in a way too long rambling way.....



So we can trade for Karlsson right now and take his full 11.5m cap hit on and be compliant with the off-season salary cap+10% overage rule. We likely don’t want to do that for *many* obvious reasons not only in terms of not wanting him at full 11.5m salary for the next 4 years, but also what it would do in terms of boxing us in trying to make other moves once he is on the roster and we can’t activate Svech when he is healthy because we are over the cap and teams aren’t going to just ignore that when we are forced to make moves to get compliant…. we absolutely for sure would have to trade multiple high salary players off the roster to get compliant in this kind of situation… but since there is zero chance we are going to take on Karlsson's contract with full cap hit of 11.5m it’s a moot point and thus the only situation where we would *have* to move multiples of Sjkei/Pesce/others is also moot…

Given our current non LTIR and LTIR cap situation described above and given that we can exceed the cap by 10% during the summer until the season starts, we can also easily trade for Karlsson right now in a direct trade with San Jose at $3m retained, which is the max amount of salary that SJS are rumored to be willing to retain in a trade for EK…. It makes things much more difficult to do anything else with the roster if we have EK at $8.5m on the books. We would have to move someone to get compliant when Svech is ready to come back, But again it can be done if we want to trade for Karlsson right now before we do anything else with the roster... We can take him straight up at $8.5M in a 3M retained direct trade and we dont have to do anything to get cap compliant until Svech is ready to come back... Even then, we can solve the cap compliance any number of ways that dont necesarily require Skjei or Pesce to be traded... Assuming SJS don’t want Skjei or Pesce as part of the trade package, they can be on the roster along with Karlsson in this situation and we wouldn’t have to trade either of them until Svech is ready to come off LTIR…

The timing of everything and what we do in a trade for Karlsson in terms of whether or not we involve a third team to get double retention will dictate what happens with Sjkei/Pesce.

However, a roster than includes the following d-pairings is mind boggling to think of:

Slavin - Karlsson
Orlov - Burns
Skjei - Pesce
Chatfield


If SJ wants nothing but prospects and futures in a straight trade for EK, we need to address it in one of two ways to make him fit under the cap upon Svech return from LTIR:

1) assuming we get EK at $8.5M we would need to trade roster players in some combination that reduces the cap of the rest of the roster besides EK by $2.73M. This is what the roster would look like with EK at $8.5M and no other changes:

FORWARDS2023-24
Aho, Sebastian
$8,460,250​
Svechnikov, Andrei
$7,750,000​
Teräväinen, Teuvo
$5,400,000​
Kotkaniemi, Jesperi
$4,820,000​
Bunting, Michael
$4,500,000​
Necas, Martin
$3,000,000​
Staal, Jordan "C"
$2,900,000​
Fast, Jesper
$2,400,000​
Martinook, Jordan "A"
$1,800,000​
Drury, Jack
$925,000​
Jarvis, Seth
$894,167​
Noesen, Stefan
$762,500​
Total
$43,611,917​
DEFENSE2023-24
Karlsson, Erik "A"
$8,500,000​
Orlov, Dmitri
$7,750,000​
Slavin, Jaccob "A"
$5,300,000​
Burns, Brent
$5,280,000​
Skjei, Brady
$5,250,000​
Pesce, Brett
$4,025,000​
Chatfield, Jalen
$762,500​
Total
$36,867,500​
GOALIES2023-24
Andersen, Frederik
$3,400,000​
Kochetkov, Pyotr ** - amount that cant be buried with PK in minors
$850,000​
Raanta, Antti
$1,500,000​
Total
$5,750,000​
Grand Total Salary Cap for all Players
$86,229,417​
Salary Cap for 2023 - 2024 Season
$83,500,000​
Current Salary Cap Space
($2,729,417)​

We could trade Skjei, Pesce, TT or some other combo of roster players such that the net effect is we lower the cap hit of the rest of the roster at least $2.7M+ and get us cap compliant... If we want Skjei/Pesce to be our third pairing with Charfield as the #7 dman (imagine typing that!! Sjkei/Pesce as the #5/6 dmen in our group!), we trade TT or some other combo... If we dont want to roll out Skjei/Pesce as our 3rd pair and spend that much cap on the bottom d pairing and leave Chatfield as the injury replacement/pressbox #7 dman guy, then we trade one or both Pesce/Skjei to recover as many of the assets as we can that we will have spent in getting Karlsson in the first place.

This becomes a moot point if SJ takes one of the above roster players back as part of the trade for EK either because they want them to play the year on the SJ roster or want to extend them to cover the time period of their rebuild... or they could be wanting to flip the player to get a haul of resources themselves either kind of like we would do in the right situation rather than lose them at the end of the year to free agency because we can't afford to give the term and AAV they want to re-sign.... San Jose could easily get a haul even for a non-extended Pesce for example... That would be what we would be doing ourselves in an attempt to get back prospects and draft picks we would give up getting Karlsson on a futures only trade...


2) We can get a third team involved to do double retention on the Karlsson contract... If SJ retains 3 million getting it down to $8.5M, we could convince a Chicago or another rebuilding team to take on the retention of another 50% to get his cap hit down to $4.25M or even if they took on $3M x 4 = $12M cap hit for the 4 years... we could give them a first round pick ++ for that... in terms of actual true salary, its not $12M total as the EK contract was front loaded a bit... actual cash remaining of the $46M cap hit is actually only $39M, or 84.78% of the AAV. So that team only has to actually pay $10.17M in real dollars... Toronto paid a first round pick for the Marleau thing and we are seeing dollars cost even less than that in recent events... we could likely get that extra $3M for a first and a few prospects, maybe a few lower round picks as well...

Imagine that same roster shown above as the true opening day roster that we dont have to trade anyone to be cap compliant? Imagine us doing an "own rental" on Skjei/Pesce for the year as our 3rd pair and try to go further towards a cup not with that high end forward we all think we need but rather by icing a crazy d corp instead? That extra $3m retained by another team in a 3 way deal would mean we could ice the roster above and literally have Chatfield sitting in the pressbox as injury insurance! or we have the option to use Skjei/Pesce as our 3rd pairing for most of the regular season and then trade Skjei/Pesce for a haul at the trade deadline if we find the experiment isnt working and we really do need a forward boost? It just depends on what Karlsson wants to do and what SJ wants in a trade.....


Lots of options.... all of it just waiting to see what Karlsson wants to do and how difficult SJ wants to be about getting a trade done.... But a stupid long post showing that it is absolutely possible to add EK to the Canes roster without blowing up our salary cap... All that crazy good management of the cap allows us the flexibility to do these kinds of things that other teams can only dream about being able to do... We get a lot of abuse and ignorant commentary from media as being cheap... but more and more grudging respect leaking out at times from those seeing how successful we have been at sticking to our guns on this philosophy and how we have been able to find ways to build the roster without getting stuck with a lot of bad contracts....
I'm not reading this, but I'm glad for you, or I'm sorry that happened
 

htdoc

Registered User
Oct 30, 2018
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The joys of speech to text getting so darn good combined with >100 word per minute typing speed :). Glad I can entertain the crowd..

from now on I will limit it to…

we have cap room to add Karlsson and not have to trade away Pesce and Skjei to do it…. lots of flexibility… let’s see what they do…
 

htdoc

Registered User
Oct 30, 2018
676
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I doubt Stepan retired until we absolutely do not give him a deal at the end of training camp after he comes in on an invite like last year. Age wise he isn’t thaaat old.. BrIndy likes his comforts and Stepan is a blankie for him if no one from the minors outshines and forces him to give them the job…. The comfort of being able to let Stepan sit in the press box for extended periods and play his role versus wasting a young guy up there.. it’s one of the quirks of Brindy with how he handles the 4th line and spare folks…

I think the playoffs finally showed Brindy that Drury is a better option…… so I expect Drury to be the play every day 4th line option over Stepan or a Stastny…. I’ve been a Statsny fan for years with how he has found a way to play smart enough to have such a long career. But unless we lose several roster forwards in the EK trade or alternative big forward trade, I just don’t see the fit or opportunity for Statsny to come back. He just didnt seem to work here as well as he meshed on other teams…
 
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Unsustainable

Seth Jarvis has Big Kahunas
Apr 14, 2012
39,052
108,784
North Carolina
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Playing around some.
 

htdoc

Registered User
Oct 30, 2018
676
2,063
You would think if we offered Bertuzzi $5.25M and Toronto offered $5.5M, he would be better off in NC with lower taxes and less pressure from media.

Still think we need 1 more forward to add to our group? Tarasenko?
So Bertuzzi started free agency trying to get a long term deal. with that not happening and him being forced into taking a one year deal, I think the strategy is to land with a team that is as high offense as possible as long as the money on this years contract is close enough between all the offers. That way he can pad his scoring numbers and try again next off-season when the cap goes up to land that long term high cap hit contract. As good a team as we are and as improved as we have been in recent years increasing goal scoring, we don’t score at the same rate as Toronto. Bertuzzi potentially playing on a line with Matthews, Marner, and/or Nylander gives him a better setup chance for next free agent period…. I guess Toronto sees him as their Bunting replacement in The top 6…

although having said all that, with Toronto $8m+ over the cap right now, is the new GM planning to trade one of the big forwards to clear cap room? At minimum, They have some work to do to waiver expose some of the d men on one way deals and bury cap that way. Or otherwise change the roster makeup so they can get cap compliant. Muzzin alone on LTIR won’t cut it given they likely need to sign another goalie…. I’m curious to see how much Dangle loses his mind trying to make sense of the moves Toronto has made in the last couple days…. That should be an interesting YouTube clip….
 

StormCast

Registered User
Jan 26, 2008
4,691
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Raleigh, NC
I’d say this at least verifies the Canes were in the mix for Bertuzzi:



My guess is the vast majority of bonus $&& up front pushed the TOR offer over the hump. Though, the Canes might have offered him around $3M or so up front like they did with Bunting and Orlov.

Bert needed the money to short Moderna and Pfizer stock.
 

StormCast

Registered User
Jan 26, 2008
4,691
2,808
Raleigh, NC
The joys of speech to text getting so darn good combined with >100 word per minute typing speed :). Glad I can entertain the crowd..

from now on I will limit it to…

we have cap room to add Karlsson and not have to trade away Pesce and Skjei to do it…. lots of flexibility… let’s see what they do…
Hmmm...I'm intrigued. Could you possibly expand on that?
 

Nikishin Go Boom

Russian Bulldozer Consultent
Jul 31, 2017
23,708
55,334
You would think if we offered Bertuzzi $5.25M and Toronto offered $5.5M, he would be better off in NC with lower taxes and less pressure from media.

Still think we need 1 more forward to add to our group? Tarasenko?
The amount of money lost on an all SB but league minimum pay is fairly negligible. He has to know riding Matthews and marners coat tails all season will earn him more money than Aho and Jarvis/Turbo
 
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Lempo

Recovering Future Considerations Truther
Feb 23, 2014
27,704
86,617
I jest, but there could be a sensible 3-way trade shenanigan to be made by TOR signing Bertuzzi for one year and paying his signing bonus, then trading him to team B that flips him to team C with retention and takes on some short-term cap hit. Team C could be someone with surplus D-men sending one to TOR.
 
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zman77

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Former Oiler Has Intensive Surgery, NHL Future Uncertain​

The first round draft pick receives double hip surgery this off-season.
Jesse Puljujarv
Now details have come out about how this past season was for him. Puljujarvi was playing through pain the entire year. That explains why he wasn't able to finish on all the scoring chances he had. When you have an injury like this that affects your skating, that makes every game a struggle.

"I fought with my hips all last season. Yes, you could play with them, but they weren't good. I had to take care of it absolutely insanely and it also took painkillers. I gave everything I could give."
Jesse Puljujarvi (Translated from Finnish Media Outlet Yle Urheili's article, Jesse Puljujarvi opens up about his difficult situation - left empty handed in the NHL immediately after surgery: "Critical moments at hand")
 
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