GDT: Let the Free Agency Madness begin

[AhosDatsyukian]

This is what I expect happens:

Slavin-Burns/TDA
Orlov-TDA/Burns
Skjei-Chatfield

Roll all 3 pairs equally.

I don't see us definitely trading Pesce. It may happen but Skjei is the much more logical guy to trade with Slavin here forever and Orlov/Nikishin locking down 2LD going forward. Pesce, we should keep trying to work something out with long term as we have significant questions long term on the right side if we don't keep him, or just have him be an own rental. Pesce has been a cornerstone of our elite defense for 5 years now along with Slavin, trading him away or letting him walk may be inevitable but it would hurt.

Also worth noting Chat played well on his off side last year with Slavin out. There are a ton of variables but the situation that makes the most sense to me is moving Skjei, using that return + others to get a legit forward upgrade and rolling:

Slavin - Burns
Orlov - Pesce
Chatfield - TDA

In the absence of being able to get a legit forward upgrade, keep the group we have and roll an absurdly elite D with Skjei on the 3rd pair and TDA/Chat rotating in and out of the lineup.

 

[AD Skinner]

nvm

 

[Sigurd]

And look at Slavin. Only a B+ despite him having a similar difference in surplus value and model value as Necas, yet Necas is an -A; despite Slavin having a model value of 3.3 million more than his contract versus Necas having 3 million more? Not to mention him easily being a number 1 D for a lot of teams.

I'm guessing the value doesn't include term either considering we have Slavin for 1 more year than Necas.

Not to pick on Necas or anything; I'm just looking at the numbers and grade. Necas is a good player on a good contract.

Some of the sports "models" and "analytics" are really suspect to say the least. What was that group that had a Tweet earlier this summer that was way off about Hurricane players? I forget, but they were getting blasted for their "analytics" and not just from Canes fans (maybe not even just about Canes players; I forget).

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Dom has always said that defensive metrics are difficult to evaluate with publicly-available data. Canes famously get the vast bulk of their value-added from defense. Them underperforming in most public models is not surprising in the slightest.

 

[poobags]

And look at Slavin. Only a B+ despite him having a similar difference in surplus value and model value as Necas, yet Necas is an -A; despite Slavin having a model value of 3.3 million more than his contract versus Necas having 3 million more? Not to mention him easily being a number 1 D for a lot of teams.

I'm guessing the value doesn't include term either considering we have Slavin for 1 more year than Necas.

Not to pick on Necas or anything; I'm just looking at the numbers and grade. Necas is a good player on a good contract.

Some of the sports "models" and "analytics" are really suspect to say the least. What was that group that had a Tweet earlier this summer that was way off about Hurricane players? I forget, but they were getting blasted for their "analytics" and not just from Canes fans (maybe not even just about Canes players; I forget).

The answer to this lies in Svechnikov's Surplus Value: 17.1M. This is the projected surplus value of the entire contract Svech is signed to.

For Necas he has a surplus value of 3.8M/1 year whereas Slavin has 4.1M/2 years. Slavin is only generating 2.05M of surplus value per year so his grade is lower than Necas.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

I would give Nick Ritchie a PTO. I feel like he would be a better roster than Lemieux. I don’t know that Ritchie makes it to PTO time.

We likely will be seriously interested in a healthy Kane in November. Although Kane likely goes to Vegas or similar.

What would Ehlers, Konecny or a guy like Coleman cost at the deadline?

Or we go for a guy like Zucker who’s metrics take a hit playing in Zona. We think he could regain form on a better team for a cheaper rental.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

To be fair, being the best available free agent doesn't mean much. Remember Darling was the consensus best available FA goalie when we acquired him.

 

[htdoc]

Sigh…. there are times when fancy stats make sense and are helpful…. And then there are times where every moron on the internet who thinks they are a stats genius tries to manipulate the fancy stats to prove a narrative they want to push….

 

[htdoc]

Turning to the roster……

1) you can look at things and conclude that if we are keeping Skjei and Pesce as own rentals, we are pretty much done constructing the roster as we don’t have any cap room left this year to really make a big move until we bank some cap for the trade deadline…. As currently constructed, we are even deeper than last year on defense and likely have more options at the start of the season than last year…. Will Bunting and more chippy players throughout the lineup alter things compared to waiting for Patches to show up at Christmas? You have to think so…. Certainly there is the potential to have more production from three lines instead of two lines plus Staal 5v5 more defensive push and then a mishmash on our limited ice time “4th” line…. If we stay as is, you know Brimdy is going to force another camp invite and last minute 750k Stephan deal if Svech not ready and or we can bury someone in the minors given we dont have 24 spots…

2) if you believe we are going to trade out one or both of Sjkei/Pesce then we still have alllll kinds of room to make more deals and we are just waiting for the pain point or deadline sticking point or pressure point to get other GMs off their butts and actually make a move from the various things that have been just sitting there all summer waiting because there has been no real pressure…. Thus the Karlsson thing not being dead, other teams needing to do some things to get cap compliant (assuming they can’t just flout the rules and have nothing done about it like the Leafs get to do this year)…. Patty Kane fully healthy might try to be a hometown savior and go to Buffalo even though another offensive player who doesn’t play defense so they can lose 11-9 instead of 8-6 is not what Buffalo needs…. But if so inclined, if he really is healthy and motivated he could be our 50 foot player….. or we look to find the trade that makes sense for us…..

3) if we are determined to own rental Skjei/Pesce and still want to do Karlsson and other moves, then a TT moving on is going to be needed to make room. we could always get inventive to address the big forward need with finish ability by moving Burns to Ahos wing and that makes a d spot open next to Slavin for Karlsson….. Burns did score 20 points in 23 games the last time he was on the wing with SJ……. Burns is now familiar with our system and likes a challenge right? And of course he wants to play more with Jarvis…. What better way than as a father son line with Aho in the center?

 

[ElmCityGuy]

I still would feel better if the Canes acquired a forward that plays like/skill set/goals scored as a solid second line winger or center. Doesn't have to be a superstar.. just a solid player.

 

[WreckingCrew]

I still would feel better if the Canes acquired a forward that plays like/skill set/goals scored as a solid second line winger or center. Doesn't have to be a superstar.. just a solid player.

I think I just had an aneurysm...how am I supposed to read that?

 

[Unhinged Finn]

I think I just had an aneurysm...how am I supposed to read that?

Drunk. Always read drunk.

 

[ElmCityGuy]

I think I just had an aneurysm...how am I supposed to read that?

Basically anyway someone wants to describe a second line forward. Some don't score alot of goals but still make the team better by other parts of their game.

 

[chaz4hockey]

Speaking of future free agents:

Brind’Amour On His Low-End Canes Contract: “It’s Not Going To Be An Easy Negotiation” - Ncsportsnetwork.com

Brind’Amour On His Low-End Canes Contract: “It’s Not Going To Be An Easy Negotiation" By David Glenn North Carolina Sports Network When Carolina Hurricanes owner Tom Dundon hired Rod Brind’Amour in May 2018, it made sense that Brind’Amour ranked among the lowest-paid head coaches in the National...

ncsportsnetwork.com

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

Speaking of future free agents:

Brind’Amour On His Low-End Canes Contract: “It’s Not Going To Be An Easy Negotiation” - Ncsportsnetwork.com

Brind’Amour On His Low-End Canes Contract: “It’s Not Going To Be An Easy Negotiation" By David Glenn North Carolina Sports Network When Carolina Hurricanes owner Tom Dundon hired Rod Brind’Amour in May 2018, it made sense that Brind’Amour ranked among the lowest-paid head coaches in the National...

ncsportsnetwork.com

I don't have any worries about this getting done. I think RBA sticks here until a Cup is won, and possibly longer, though I suspect if we were to win it all he may retire

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

There's no cap implications for compensating Rod within the top-10 NHL coach range. I suspect that Dundon and Co. will get that penned relatively quickly. I'm more interested about Tulsky, because I hope that the Hurricanes don't make the same mistake that the Red Wings did with Holland and Yzerman back in the day with him. Hopefully he'll be named general manager by next year.

 

[chaz4hockey]

There's no cap implications for compensating Rod within the top-10 NHL coach range. I suspect that Dundon and Co. will get that penned relatively quickly. I'm more interested about Tulsky, because I hope that the Hurricanes don't make the same mistake that the Red Wings did with Holland and Yzerman back in the day with him. Hopefully he'll be named general manager by next year.

And prior to that, Isles losing Devellano in the early 80’s spawned the Wings great ascent. Need to keep Tulsky.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

There's no cap implications for compensating Rod within the top-10 NHL coach range. I suspect that Dundon and Co. will get that penned relatively quickly. I'm more interested about Tulsky, because I hope that the Hurricanes don't make the same mistake that the Red Wings did with Holland and Yzerman back in the day with him. Hopefully he'll be named general manager by next year.

There's still the issue of keeping the club relatively revenue neutral. My hope is that the sports book and the arena improvements will help in that department so they can free up some cash to keep the key front office folks happy.

 

[Svechhammer]

So apparently we have a type

 

[poobags]

So apparently we have a type

I mean the fact that 5 of our defensemen are in the top 18, and we have 4 out of the top 5, certainly indicates this is our MO.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

It should be everyone’s MO

 

[rainband]

Do these data mean that other teams try to break the puck out whereas we just reliably flip it out/throw it up the boards? That certainly seems to be the signature against good teams in the playoffs anyways.

 

[Svechhammer]

Do these data mean that other teams try to break the puck out whereas we just reliably flip it out/throw it up the boards? That certainly seems to be the signature against good teams in the playoffs anyways.

I think it suggests we purposely target guys who are really good at getting the puck out of the zone. And I don't necessarily agree that we just nonchalantly throw it up the boards, we definitely do that a lot, but we are also pretty good at finding a guy around the blue line for a break into the neutral zone. We just prioritize getting it and getting it out, and we are exceptionally good at doing that. If you're trying to employ any kind of dump and chase against us, you're not going to have success.... which is tough, because we're also really good with our sticks at stopping zone entries as well.

 

[chaz4hockey]

There's still the issue of keeping the club relatively revenue neutral. My hope is that the sports book and the arena improvements will help in that department so they can free up some cash to keep the key front office folks happy.

"There's still the issue of keeping the club relatively revenue neutral".

Key point.

I seem to recall that previous ownership always said a deep run into the playoffs was the only way for team to be profitable.

I'd think that this year with the great attendance (including stadium game), higher prices plus a huge revenue boost from 8 home playoff games ($5m each??) the team should have been safely profitable.

 

[NotOpie]

Ooooof....just read the Karlsson main board thread and what a shit show. The proposals for that guy are outrageous on both extremes. No Sharks fan want to admit to Karlsson's fragility or his "2X" shooting percentage this past season and no other fan wants to see the challenge of serious retention (although I still think that's the only way he moves for any sort of solid return). It's an exercise in talking past each other.