Leon Draisatl - time to prove?

[CupofOil]

So funny to see these critics lob them up and Draisaitl keeps knocking them out.

Draisaitl will never be a #1 center because he can't skate they say - Draisaitl completely improves his skating in one offseason.

Draisaitl will never be more than a 50 point player they say - Draisaitl goes on to have a 77 point season in his 2nd full NHL season.

Draisaitl can never drive his own line they say Part 1 - Draisaitl dominates the playoffs driving his own line with Slepyshev and Lucic or miscellaneous crap on his other wing.

Draisaitl's 77 point season was an outlier they say Part 1, won't match it again - Draisaitl goes on to have a 105 point season.

Draisaitl will never be much of a goal scorer they say, he's mainly a playmaker - Draisaitl goes on to score 50 goals.

Draisaitl's 105 point season was an outlier they say Part 2 - Draisaitl goes on to score at even higher pace this season.

Draisaitl can't drive his own line they say Part 2 - Draisaitl goes on to score 10 goals and 28 points in 15 games and is a massive + since splitting with McDavid

Lets see how Draisaitl does against top matchups once McDavid got injured they say - Scores 4 points in his first game post-McDavid capped off with a great "defensive" play to score the empty netter (for you @JoeThorntonsRooster ).

Keeping lobbing up them softballs boys, Leon digs the long ball.
Give the man his damn respect already.

 

[Wats]

Man's a beast and such a good contract. Pretty cool next gen Malkin/Crosby duo is in Canada.

 

[BertMcDrai]

So funny to see these critics lob them up and Draisaitl keeps knocking them out.

Draisaitl will never be a #1 center because he can't skate they say - Draisaitl completely improves his skating in one offseason.

Draisaitl will never be more than a 50 point player they say - Draisaitl goes on to have a 77 point season in his 2nd full NHL season.

Draisaitl can never drive his own line they say Part 1 - Draisaitl dominates the playoffs driving his own line with Slepyshev and Lucic or miscellaneous crap on his other wing.

Draisaitl's 77 point season was an outlier they say Part 1, won't match it again - Draisaitl goes on to have a 105 point season.

Draisaitl will never be much of a goal scorer they say, he's mainly a playmaker -
Draisaitl completely improves his shooting in one offseason.
--> Draisaitl goes on to score 50 goals.

Draisaitl's 105 point season was an outlier they say Part 2 - Draisaitl goes on to score at even higher pace this season.

Draisaitl can't drive his own line they say Part 2 - Draisaitl goes on to score 14 goals and 34 points in 17 games and is a massive + since splitting with McDavid

Lets see how Draisaitl does against top matchups once McDavid got injured they say - Scores 4 points in his first game post-McDavid capped off with a great "defensive" play to score the empty netter (for you @JoeThorntonsRooster ).

Keeping lobbing up them softballs boys, Leon digs the long ball.
Give the man his damn respect already.

added one sentence in your post

 

[oil4life97]

After all the tire pumping Oiler fans have been doing, I think its fair to see how LD responds to this opportunity to lead the team.

is it fair to say he’s responded quite well?

 

[RageQuit77]

One game sample cannot decide anything for or against Drai. Poor guy, always underwhelming, only 2nd assists and goals that do not count.

Of course, every f***ing point count if McJesus was involved.

I hate HF idiots.

 

[SaltNPeca]

McDavid is a product of Draisaitl

Yeah, but Draisaitl is a product of Yamamoto.

It's really crazy because hockey is a team sport. You will even hear the stars talk about winning over individual stats and hear about legends like Yzerman, Sakic, and Messier having those "intangible" qualities which raise the team game. You will find some weird correlations on all good/great teams (so crazy and weird like Shaq/Kobe or Montana/Rice were products of each other too? ).

I imagine HFBoards imploding in 1986 when the Oilers sent 8 players and a coach to the All Star game (including the backup goalie lol). Luckily the internet didn't exist.

 

[BAM]

Oof, time for quiet time in the corner son

Do you know how to read? I said IF LD goes on a slump lmao

Oiler fans have made the playoffs once in over a decade so they find anything to celebrate. Maybe clinch a playoff spot before acting like a goof.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

Its kind of funny, you do all this shot attempts, scoring chances, and expected goal differential schtick but you seem to be to blind to realize that for some players, the whole metric is flawed and utterly incorrect.

The whole metric makes the assumption that all shot attempts are created equally. The assumption is that, one, any shot from any location is the same. That, two, any shot from any player is the same.

Now the location thing has since been utterly disproven, and now every shot attempt is given a scoring chance value. The second assertion, that any shot from any player is the same in any given circumstance is utterly false, and all I need to do to prove that to you is ask you this; Who would you be more afraid of standing uncontested in the slot on the left hand circles, Alex Ovechkin or Victor Mete? Why?

Exactly

and this is why Taylor Hall is the poster child for advanced analytics...dude has a high volume of low percentage shots (career shooting percentage 10.5%) and thus his corsi is off the charts

 

[kovnik]

Reading some of the posts here..

 

[Juxta Position]

He needs to volume perimeter shoot more rather than worrying about setting up teammates with filthy back hand sauce passes.

What does a spreadsheet say about this?

It's plays like this that people who don't watch him play and just analyze numbers don't realize he makes all the time. the level of skill to not only anticipate the developing play (that yamamoto would be there to pick up that pass) combined with the absolute sickening ability to pull that backhand pass off is otherworldly. that is one of the best pases i've seen all year by anybody.

the issue with Draisaitl is that he attempts such high skilled plays that quite often when they don't work they lead to turnovers, and in todays stat heavy game, all of those metrics are kept and analyzed, go back 30 years and there was a player who turned the puck over routinely because he tried high skill plays all the time, and his name was Gretzky. Now, draisaitl is obviously no Gretzky, but Gretzky was an extremely high event player, and so is Draisaitl, the difference is those stats are tracked now and they weren't in gretzky time.

 

[tony d]

Drai's becoming a legit superstar. 4 points last night without Mcdavid in the lineup. He's been way more than a product of Mcdavid for a long time now.

 

[oXo Cube]

Blows my mind how many people on the internet will hit rock bottom and then just start drilling.

 

[DarthProbert]

Drai's becoming a legit superstar. 4 points last night without Mcdavid in the lineup. He's been way more than a product of Mcdavid for a long time now.

Not "becoming". He was a legit superstar last year. Now he's the best player in the game. And still getting better.

 

[KlefDown]

leafs fans that were commenting in this thread are in absolute shambles waking up this morning

 

[McDavidCrushedLarkin]

leafs fans that were commenting in this thread are in absolute shambles waking up this morning

Must suck living in the center of the universe and knowing deep down the Oilers have at least 2 players better than your best.

 

[Critical I]

I actually made it very clear that his on-ice actual goals for will sustainably exceed his on-ice expected goals for, because he is an excellent playmaker, and arguably the best shooter in the NHL.

You know, I generally enjoy your posts. You put a lot of work into them, and it shows.

But your credibility is getting cratered on this, and it's a really bad look.

Seriously, sit this one out. This is not the hill you want to die on.

 

[I am toxic]

Blows my mind how many people on the internet will hit rock bottom and then just start drilling.

 

[snag]

Must suck living in the center of the universe and knowing deep down the Oilers have at lease 2 players better than your best.

And cumulatively less money and more term...

 

[LarKing]

Drai is a product of McDavid in the sense that if he were his son and McDavid taught him all he knows and now Drai is out there doing his own thing and it’s great as well. The family get together are a riot but both are really doing well in life.

 

[I am toxic]

Since Yamamoto was called up near the end of December (15 games played):

Drai
28 points (+7)
Nuge
21 points (+10)
Yama
14 PTS (+12)
Oilers
10-3-2

We are preparing a flight of P-38's with drop tanks as I type this.

 

[TeddyBare]

That Kamiccollo or however you spell it is feeling some type of way after seeing Draisaitl playing the way he is without McDavid.

 

[Homesick]

Oh, PP goals certainly count. Draisaitl is an excellent PP scorer. I've never disputed this at all.

Do PP points count in Art Ross scoring? Why is his 52 ES points so bad?

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

Its kind of funny, you do all this shot attempts, scoring chances, and expected goal differential schtick but you seem to be to blind to realize that for some players, the whole metric is flawed and utterly incorrect.

The whole metric makes the assumption that all shot attempts are created equally. The assumption is that, one, any shot from any location is the same. That, two, any shot from any player is the same.

Now the location thing has since been utterly disproven, and now every shot attempt is given a scoring chance value. The second assertion, that any shot from any player is the same in any given circumstance is utterly false, and all I need to do to prove that to you is ask you this; Who would you be more afraid of standing uncontested in the slot on the left hand circles, Alex Ovechkin or Victor Mete? Why?

Shot metrics, scoring chance metrics, and expected goal metrics are by definition only useful for the players at the mean and within a standard deviation or two. Thing is, based on boxcar points results, and by the very eyetest in general, it is completely and utterly impossible to consider Draisaitl as a player to be within the mean and within a couple standard deviations. Thus the entire basis of painting him with a brush based on his shot attempt numbers and scoring chance metrics is entirely flawed as no matter what you do, because as expected Goals are currently derived they dont have a basis for the fact that Draisatl as a player is over 2.5 standard deviations more talented than the average NHL player. They fundamentally can't account for the fact that him shooting relatively uncontested from an "outside" traditionally low percentage scoring chance area is fundamentally a scarier and higher danger chance than a player within one standard deviation from the mean shooting covered from an "inside" traditionally high percentage scoring area. That he can draw pressure to such a degree that his linemates are more frequently uncontested in their scoring chances, and frequently have a goaltender that is in transition, that is once again unaccounted for in your beloved expected goals metric.

More proof in the pudding that these numbers by design mean nothing for high end players would be the very concept of PDO; fundamentally all PDO should even up to 100%, and any real deviation from 100% means that a player is blessed or cursed with a degree of luck. Yet, you have a number of "elite" players posting PDO's above 100 by several standard deviations over the course of a decade. Getzlaf has averaged a PDO of 102.6% since 2006. Giroux has averaged a PDO of 102.1% since 2008. Crosby has averaged a PDO of 103.8% since 2006. Malkin has averaged a PDO of 103.4% since 2007. Ovechkin has averaged a PDO of 103.2% since 2007. Thornton has averaged a PDO of 101.7% since 2007. Toews has averaged a PDO of 101.9% since 2007. Kane has averaged a PDO of 102.4% since 2007. Kopitar has averaged a PDO of 101.9% since 2007. Stamkos has averaged a PDO of 102.8% since 2009. I could go on, but the mere fact is that basically every superstar of the last generation has had real goals for percentages significantly higher than their expected goals for percentages by a ridiculous margin; is this because every superstar was lucky over a dataset that span over 10,000 games, or is it because obviously Alex Ovechkin is scarier from the left side hash marks on the PP than Victor Mete?

Now explain to me again why you think evaluating the talent of Leon "leading the league in scoring over the last 160 GP" Draisaitl based on mean based percentage metrics makes any lick of sense aside from finding any possible stroke against the man possible.

Wow, I love that you have taken the time to try and explain something to me that I have already made very clear to everybody who actually takes the time to read my posts:

I actually made it very clear that his on-ice actual goals for will sustainably exceed his on-ice expected goals for, because he is an excellent playmaker, and arguably the best shooter in the NHL.

 

[snipes]

That Kamiccollo or however you spell it is feeling some type of way after seeing Draisaitl playing the way he is without McDavid.

@Kamiccolo

 

[Kamiccolo]

@Kamiccolo

Congrats on a 1 game sample size I guess?