Player Discussion Leon Draisaitl's next contract

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

This makes no sense whatsoever.

You're comparing a borderline generational talent, surefire top 5 probably more like top 3 player in the league over the last 5 years to Darnell f***ing Nurse. What are we even talking about here?

And before all this decline talk that I know you will use for your argument.... I'll take a declined 41 goal, 105 point player and 10 goals, 31 points in 25 game playoff performer playing with severe injury in the latter part of the playoffs any day.

He'll be 30 when the contract kicks in, he won't be THAT old. There's tons of examples of great players playing well (especially nowadays) deep into their 30s so I don't think Draisaitl who doesn't depend heavily on physical traits anyway will see too steep of a decline into his mid 30s. The latter part of the contract could be a problem but who gives a shit about 6-7 years down the line, their Cup contention window is now and the next 4-5 years or so hopefully. You need players like Draisaitl to keep that a CUP contention window. If he wants out that's another story and you need to cut your losses but that seems rather unlikely.

The problem with Nurse is that he seems to believe he is in the same stratosphere as Draisaitl when in reality he’s the number 3 best D on this team and depending on how Broberg develops could even be the number 4.

 

[Canovin]

This makes no sense whatsoever.

You're comparing a borderline generational talent, surefire top 5 probably more like top 3 player in the league over the last 5 years to Darnell f***ing Nurse. What are we even talking about here?

And before all this decline talk that I know you will use for your argument.... I'll take a declined 41 goal, 105 point player and 10 goals, 31 points in 25 game playoff performer playing with severe injury in the latter part of the playoffs any day.

He'll be 30 when the contract kicks in, he won't be THAT old. There's tons of examples of great players playing well (especially nowadays) deep into their 30s so I don't think Draisaitl who doesn't depend heavily on physical traits anyway will see too steep of a decline into his mid 30s. The latter part of the contract could be a problem but who gives a shit about 6-7 years down the line, their Cup contention window is now and the next 4-5 years or so hopefully. You need players like Draisaitl to keep that a CUP contention window. If he wants out that's another story and you need to cut your losses but that seems rather unlikely.

To be fair, we don't want to be the overhill Lakers with Lebron and AD. I'm okay with fans including myself wanting to be cautious before giving out 14M deals

 

[bucks_oil]

Thanks, I forgot. Did the Pens also have bad contracts and buyouts? It's a good thing our 4 guys are at 42% of the cap next year, have to add Brown's 3.25, Neal's 1.9 and Soup's 1.1. That's 6 million bucks right there. When Drai/Bouch kick in we owe 2.2 to JC, when McD's kicks in will be 2.6 million. That's 2.6 less to play with as these big contracts kick in.

You've proven winning a cup at 46% can be done but this is going to on the high end. Just posted the same stats for the 4 most recent cup winners. Ideally this is where you want to be, especially when paying JC not to play here. It all adds up.

I think it's worth noting that you are comparing our cap numbers at peak (ie the year we ink all these guys to contracts) vs the year that teams won.

It's quite natural to be cap constrained immediately after signing everyone up, but the cap is not expected to be static, so our 47% will be 45% the next year and 42% the year after that, etc...

You sign all these guys up and your window increases by 7+ years even if the first year or two may be a bit tight, space opens up over time.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

To be fair, we don't want to be the overhill Lakers with Lebron and AD. I'm okay with fans including myself wanting to be cautious before giving out 14M deals

A - Lebron is 40 and just resigned
B - AD is glass
C - They still won a ring
D - That organization is run like a circus right now.

If we have to be old and shitty for a couple of years in exchange for a cup I’ll take that deal any day of the week. We haven’t won in over 30 years.

 

[onetweasy]

Nothing beats the Hf poster who is concerned about what the 2030 Oilers cap will look like.

 

[Soundwave]

The thing is there's a lot of dead cap on the existing roster that basically will pay for Draisaitl + Bouchard's raises anyway.

Evander Kane (basically hurt most of the playoffs) - $5.25 million
Neal buy out - $1.9 million in dead cap
Brown bonus overage penalty - $3.2 million this year

That's almost $10 million you can look at as money that go to paying Drai + Bouchard's extensions, then you can also factor in on top of that probably another $4-$5 million in cap rise beyond that.

Kane will be dumped some point in this season or next off-season IMO.

 

[Slats432]

To be fair, we don't want to be the overhill Lakers with Lebron and AD. I'm okay with fans including myself wanting to be cautious before giving out 14M deals

This is a bit crazy to me. I agree with the other posters that it is all worth it if we win one cup.

 

[Yuke]

Oilers so hard done by having a great team featuring the two best players in the league that went to game 7 of the finals and got notably better in the offseason.

What the hell do you suggest? Why are you even posting if not to troll?

I suspect you do but if you don't, why not follow another team? What are you going to do if the Oilers win multiple cups, jump off a cliff...

Prety sure I know this poster from another site. He/She is actually a huge Oiler fan and definitely not a troll.
It is ok not to follow the masses and have an objective opinion.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

Prety sure I know this poster from another site. He/She is actually a huge Oiler fan and definitely not a troll.
It is ok not to follow the masses and have an objective opinion.

Saying Drai just “rides McDavids coattails” or “isn’t a very special player” isn’t just not following the masses. It’s ridiculous.

 

[McBooya42]

Prety sure I know this poster from another site. He/She is actually a huge Oiler fan and definitely not a troll.
It is ok not to follow the masses and have an objective opinion.

Yeah, but the opinion is out to lunch and in no way realistic. His opinions were lambasted by practically everyone on the board for a reason.

 

[powerserge]

Yes riding McD's coat tails was way too strong but getting a nice bump/boost playing with McD is fair. He would be on par with other superstars. He is not as good and accomplished as MacKinnon so in my opinion he should be paid the same or less, not more.

Don't think my opinion is out to lunch at all. Even with McD/Nurse as the two highest paid players last year 12.5/9.25 we were well above average for all the cup winners in the cap era. You guys can read the following or not, there is a chart to show the stats. Players eating too much of the cap do not usually win cups because you cannot surround the team, it is just not optimal.

What to make of new Edmonton Oilers rumours about Leon Draisaitl contract and Evander Kane's health?

What to make of new Edmonton Oilers rumours about Leon Draisaitl contract and Evander Kane's status?

edmontonjournal.com

 

[Fourier]

You're right, he did not sign a couple years ago. Already mentioned Reinhart, plenty of other guys like Panarin, Schiefele, Larkin, Pasta, etc. All recent signings. That's fine most fans think Drai is better than those guys, but the gap is huge if the projected numbers are correct.

It is what it is, see what happens. No use beating a dead horse.

Panarins deal was 14.29% of the cap. An equivalent for Leon would be $13.3M. Pasta would be $12.5M. So those deals easily support Leon in the $13-14.5M range.

Scheifele and Larkin are not even in the same stratosphere as Draisiatl in terms of what they have accomplished. In fact Larkin is closer to Nuge than Draisaitl. Over the last 5 years for example Draisaitl has 222 goals and 538pts (2nd most) in the regular season and 35 goals and 92 points (3rd most) in the playoffs. He is also a +72 over that time. Scheiifele has 146 goals and 346 points (-16) with 5 goals and 12 points in the playoffs while Larkin has 125 goals and 293 points and did not play a playoff game. Nuge by the way has 104 goals and 317 points over the same period and 17 goals and 57 points in the playoffs. Of course Nuge has played with Leon and McDavid, but he also makes $5.125M.

You are also completely ignoring the fact that wee seem to be on the verge of a big salary reset. This is why I pointed to the contract of Brock Faber who is going to be paid more than Quinn Hughes and just a hair less than Cale Makar.

 

[thesandman77]

Prety sure I know this poster from another site. He/She is actually a huge Oiler fan and definitely not a troll.
It is ok not to follow the masses and have an objective opinion.

Yes riding McD's coat tails was way too strong but getting a nice bump/boost playing with McD is fair. He would be on par with other superstars. He is not as good and accomplished as MacKinnon so in my opinion he should be paid the same or less, not more.

Don't think my opinion is out to lunch at all. Even with McD/Nurse as the two highest paid players last year 12.5/9.25 we were well above average for all the cup winners in the cap era. You guys can read the following or not, there is a chart to show the stats. Players eating too much of the cap do not usually win cups because you cannot surround the team, it is just not optimal.

What to make of new Edmonton Oilers rumours about Leon Draisaitl contract and Evander Kane's health?

What to make of new Edmonton Oilers rumours about Leon Draisaitl contract and Evander Kane's status?

edmontonjournal.com

Oh boy

 

[TB12]

Saying Drai just “rides McDavids coattails” or “isn’t a very special player” isn’t just not following the masses. It’s ridiculous.

This. We have some stupid posters on here. Not everyone's opinion is worth listening to.

 

[powerserge]

Panarins deal was 14.92% of the cap. An equivalent for Leon would be $13.3M. Pasta would be $12.5M. So those deal easily support Leon in the $13-14.5M range.

Scheifele and Larkin are not even in the same stratosphere as Draisiatl in terms of what they have accomplished. In fact Larkin is closer to Nuge than Draisaitl. Over the last 5 years for example Draisaitl has 222 goals and 538pts (2nd most) in the regular season and 35 goals and 92 points (3rd most) in the playoffs. He is also a +72 over that time. Scheiifele has 146 goals and 346 points (-16) with 5 goals and 12 points in the playoffs while Larkin has 125 goals and 293 points and did not play a playoff game. Nuge by the way has 104 goals and 317 points over the same period and 17 goals and 57 points in the playoffs. Of course Nuge has played with Leon and McDavid, but he also makes $5.125M.

You are also completely ignoring the fact that wee seem to be on the verge of a big salary reset. This is why I pointed to the contract of Brock Faber who is going to be paid more than Quinn Hughes and just a hair less than Cale Makar.

Way to pick the player on the highest side in Panarin. Scheif and Larkin do not play with the best player in the world. Larkin plays on a rebuilding team. You can see how the points can get skewed as a result. Drai gets to play with the best player in the world, his numbers/points get a nice boost because of this.

Any of the players I mentioned the past couple of days would get a huge boost playing with the worlds best player as well. This is all I am saying. Drai should be paid no more than what McD, Mac make. I'm trolling because I'm not overvaluing our players like so many fans do with an open armchair GM checkbook. Like Yuke said, huge fan. Hoping Drai takes less.

 

[Fourier]

Yes riding McD's coat tails was way too strong but getting a nice bump/boost playing with McD is fair. He would be on par with other superstars. He is not as good and accomplished as MacKinnon so in my opinion he should be paid the same or less, not more.

Don't think my opinion is out to lunch at all. Even with McD/Nurse as the two highest paid players last year 12.5/9.25 we were well above average for all the cup winners in the cap era. You guys can read the following or not, there is a chart to show the stats. Players eating too much of the cap do not usually win cups because you cannot surround the team, it is just not optimal.

What to make of new Edmonton Oilers rumours about Leon Draisaitl contract and Evander Kane's health?

What to make of new Edmonton Oilers rumours about Leon Draisaitl contract and Evander Kane's status?

edmontonjournal.com

MacKinnon signed a deal for 15.09% of the cap. An equivalent deal would be $14M. And MacKinnon, who also had Makar, Rantanen and others to help him, had not yet had his MVP year.

 

[powerserge]

This. We have some stupid posters on here. Not everyone's opinion is worth listening to.

No need to call anyone stupid. Let me see, 2006, now 2024. What happened those two years? Us getting back to the finals. 20 years. If your best players take a bit less then it gives us a better chance to get back more often. Drai better enjoy his good wingers in the last year of his deal because he's making 8.5. We have an excellent chance next year. Once he makes 12-14 there's not going to be the same quality wingers, not for quite awhile.

 

[powerserge]

MacKinnon signed a deal for 15.09% of the cap. An equivalent deal would be $14M. And MacKinnon, who also had Makar, Rantanen and other to help him, had not yet had his MVP year.

Going by the number 12.5. You guys just like to argue. Money just grows on trees. 4 players making 50% or more of the cap in 2 years, now that's ridiculous. I want our team to compete and be good every year. Not be hamstrung and only having one top line with a surrounding cast of fringe NHL players. Even though our opinions differ it is not optimal to pay 4 players half you cap. Yes I know, I'm stupid and out of line.

 

[bobbythebrain]

Prety sure I know this poster from another site. He/She is actually a huge Oiler fan and definitely not a troll.
It is ok not to follow the masses and have an objective opinion.

Opinions are fine if you base it on facts. Interpretation is different for everyone.

However, when you ignore or omit facts, it's not even an opinion anymore. It's basically a fib or fairytale.

 

[brentashton]

Never mind. Some like my post so

 

[K1984]

Going by the number 12.5. You guys just like to argue. Money just grows on trees. 4 players making 50% or more of the cap in 2 years, now that's ridiculous. I want our team to compete and be good every year. Not be hamstrung and only having one top line with a surrounding cast of fringe NHL players. Even though our opinions differ it is not optimal to pay 4 players half you cap. Yes I know, I'm stupid and out of line.

I'll happily take the risk of paying 4 players over 50% of the cap vs. the risk of the Oilers being a star free afterthought of a franchise that has no hope whatsoever of winning everything.

I got to experience the latter of these two scenarios for more or less the first 30 years of my life, and I would prefer to not go back based on nothing more than a theory and a hope that we'll just magically be able to find better players with the cap space saved.

 

[Davo Ikinzom]

Prety sure I know this poster from another site.

Let me guess. The site is Calgary Puck.

 

[brentashton]

Let me guess. The site is Calgary Puck.

Interesting to see all the new accounts in the past few weeks, each one kinda “dragging their fishing lures behind the boat” around here.

 

[Fourier]

Way to pick the player on the highest side in Panarin. Scheif and Larkin do not play with the best player in the world. Larkin plays on a rebuilding team. You can see how the points can get skewed as a result. Drai gets to play with the best player in the world, his numbers/points get a nice boost because of this.

Any of the players I mentioned the past couple of days would get a huge boost playing with the worlds best player as well. This is all I am saying. Drai should be paid no more than what McD, Mac make. I'm trolling because I'm not overvaluing our players like so many fans do with an open armchair GM checkbook. Like Yuke said, huge fan. Hoping Drai takes less.

You have no idea how much of a boost a guy like Larkin would have playing on the Oilers. He would have been the teams' 2nd line center playing with the like Foegele, McLeod, Yamamoto, Puljujarvi and Kane, Nuge etc. It's very unlikely he would be playing much at all 5 vs 5 with McDavid. Last year he played almost exclusively with Lucas Raymond/Patrick Kane and Alex Debrincat/David Perron.

Even if he did get some time with McDavid you have no idea how he would do. One of the reasons that Draisaitl does so well with McDavid is that he has tailored his game to play with McDavid. It is not at all clear that all players would see their numbers go way up just because they play with McDavid.

Players get paid for what they actually do not what they might do in some hypothetical situation.

 

[powerserge]

You have no idea how much of a boost a guy like Larkin would have playing on the Oilers. He would have been the teams' 2nd line center playing with the like Foegele, McLeod, Yamamoto, Puljujarvi and Kane, Nuge etc. It's very unlikely he would be playing much at all 5 vs 5 with McDavid. Last year he played almost exclusively with Lucas Raymond/Patrick Kane and Alex Debrincat/David Perron.

Even if he did get some time with McDavid you have no idea how he would do. One of the reasons that Draisaitl does so well with McDavid is that he has tailored his game to play with McDavid. It is not at all clear that all players would see their numbers go way up just because they play with McDavid.

Players get paid for what they actually do not what they might do in some hypothetical situation.

And we have no idea how Drai would do on a less stacked team. We do have a historically best PP. Lots of points. Go on another teams PP, Drai's performance would drop from this alone. Anyways, none of this matters. Already posted what the top 4 players should make (if you want the best chance to win) and an article on what the 2 highest paid players should be at with all the stats since 2005. Just want our team to win, we all do.

At the beginning of the summer, like most fans just said pay these guys what they want. Dig a little deeper, there's stats on what cup winners do. The high from a couple days ago for the 4 highest paid players on a cup winner was 47% (lower to mid 40's is better). For the two highest paid players the average is 23.1% of the cap going back to 2005. No one has won a cup making 30% of the cap (two best paid guys). No one likes to hear this, including myself.

Like it or not, if both McD and Drai aim for 15% of the cap each, our chances go down. It has never been done. It's just a discussion, not sure why it's called trolling. And these are facts, not opinion or speculation.