Player Discussion Leo Carlsson

[Mr Rogers]

Carlsson has looked the most tired during games that are concentrated together - i know i and DVM have pointed this out and probably others.

Up to this point, OK he may not have sat because he was 'tired' but it's certainly possible he could sit for that very reason in the near future as he exits the Leo Plan and is slated to play almost every game.

 

[Gliff]

Even if its Carlsson?

He hasn’t said that. Nice try.

 

[ZEBROA]

He hasn’t said that. Nice try.

I never said he did.

 

[NHLRookieWatch]

 

[ZEBROA]

If Leo get one goal in his nex 11games he is on par with Fantilli when it comes to goals. Never ever thought that. But Leo needs to step up now. 0 shots on goal like last game will probably mean 0 goals...

 

[LuGBuG]

If Leo get one goal in his nex 11games he is on par with Fantilli when it comes to goals. Never ever thought that. But Leo needs to step up now. 0 shots on goal like last game will probably mean 0 goals...

Not really worried about his pace with Fantilli. Let’s enjoy the player we have and his progression. Who cares at this point what Fantilli does, he’s not a Duck and I’m 99.9% sure he never will be.

Also as far as him having 0 shots and “needing to step up now”. Let’s relax a little bit, he’s going to have off games he’s 18. He still had moments he looked dynamic.

 

[JAHV]

If Leo get one goal in his nex 11games he is on par with Fantilli when it comes to goals. Never ever thought that. But Leo needs to step up now. 0 shots on goal like last game will probably mean 0 goals...

I'm curious how many shot attempts he had. I know there were a couple that he put high/wide. Sure, he needs to get some shots on goal, but if we're just looking at how well he played, if he had zero shots on goal but had three or four shot attempts from good scoring areas, I'm not at all upset with his play.

On that note, does anyone know where we can see individual player shot attempts, both on a per-game and aggregate basis? On-ice shot attempts are available in several places, but I can't find somewhere (free) that gives individual player shot attempts.

 

[ohcomeonref]

Not really worried about his pace with Fantilli. Let’s enjoy the player we have and his progression. Who cares at this point what Fantilli does, he’s not a Duck and I’m 99.9% sure he never will be.

Also as far as him having 0 shots and “needing to step up now”. Let’s relax a little bit, he’s going to have off games he’s 18. He still had moments he looked dynamic.

I, for one, would prefer if Carlsson crushes Fantilli in every possible metric there is. We've got the better player and it's only going to become more obvious as Carlsson fills out. Bring on the comparisons!

 

[LuGBuG]

I, for one, would prefer if Carlsson crushes Fantilli in every possible metric there is. We've got the better player and it's only going to become more obvious as Carlsson fills out. Bring on the comparisons!

I think we did too. Just it’s so early what’s the point in comparing goals halfway into their 18 year old seasons. More exhausting then anything arguing back and forth at this point.

 

[Leonardo87]

I'll admit I like to see Leo put up more points, only because of how good he has looked and has come close to several multi-point games. But he is pacing very well now for a 18yo rookie who is on a game management plan and line-mates who have struggled most of the season.

I loved how Cronin put him out there with the game on the line, protecting a one goal lead with a min left. That right there separates him from the others in the Top 3.

 

[Sniperberg]

I, for one, would prefer if Carlsson crushes Fantilli in every possible metric there is. We've got the better player and it's only going to become more obvious as Carlsson fills out. Bring on the comparisons!

Fantilli = Yakupov 2.0
Carlsson = Kopitar/Malkin hybrid

Or maybe not, but Leo is great!

 

[Hockey Duckie]

If Leo get one goal in his nex 11games he is on par with Fantilli when it comes to goals. Never ever thought that. But Leo needs to step up now. 0 shots on goal like last game will probably mean 0 goals...

Zero shots on goal doesn't mean zero shots attempted. Some shot attempts could be wide, some shot attempts could have been blocked, and some shot attempts hit the bar or post (it's that pinging sound). Carlsson would be considered a musician with the Ducks because of all of the pinging sounds he creates off of the bar and posts.

As for scoring, why would Carlsson keeping up with Fantilli not be a possibility? Here are tournaments where both participated, same ice sheet and same opponent levels. Let's review the results.

• WJC-20
  • Carlsson: 7 games, 3g + 3a = 6 pts, +4 rating
    3rd in team scoring
    22 SOG for a 13.64 Shooting %
  • Fantilli: 7 games, 2g + 3a = 5 pts, +0 rating
    9th in team scoring
    21 SOG for a 9.52 Shooting %

• WC
  • Carlsson: 7 games, 3g + 2a = 5 pts, +5 rating
    6th in team scoring, 1st in team goal scoring
    12 SOG for a 25.00 Shooting %
  • Fantilli: 10 games, 1g + 2a = 3 pts, +3 rating
    13th in team scoring, 9th in team goal scoring
    23 SOG for a 4.35 Shooting %

Apparently, Carlsson is the goal scorer between the two at the international events. Fantilli is a high volume shooter, but a less accurate shooter. Carlsson is usually a low volume shooter, but a more accurate shooter. This info was known before the 2023 NHL draft.

Looking up the rookie scoreboard this morning, Dec 20, 2023:

• Rookie Shooting % in NHL
  • Carlsson: 22 games, 8 goals, 46 shots
    17.4% shooting pct
    5th in Shooting % with 10 or more games played for rookies
  • Fantilli: 33 games, 9 goals, 82 shots
    11.0% shooting pct
    17th in Shooting % with 10 or more games played for rookies

The pattern continues for both players in the NHL level.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

I'll admit I like to see Leo put up more points, only because of how good he has looked and has come close to several multi-point games. But he is pacing very well now for a 18yo rookie who is on a game management plan and line-mates who have struggled most of the season.

I loved how Cronin put him out there with the game on the line, protecting a one goal lead with a min left. That right there separates him from the others in the Top 3.

Would it make you feel better to know that Carlsson is the better scorer this year when looking at a points-per-game (ppg) rate?

• Carlsson
  • Games = 22
  • Points = 15
  • ppg = 0.68

• Fantilli
  • Games = 33
  • Points = 19
  • ppg = 0.58

I'll have to admit that Fantilli is the better ES goal scorer b/c 17 of his 19 points were at ES. Carlsson is the PP specialist with 7 of his 15 points generated on the PP. Carlsson has factored in 32% of our PP goals, which is probably a significant reason why our PP has improved from last season.

 

[Leonardo87]

Would it make you feel better to know that Carlsson is the better scorer this year when looking at a points-per-game (ppg) rate?

• Carlsson
  • Games = 22
  • Points = 15
  • ppg = 0.68

• Fantilli
  • Games = 33
  • Points = 19
  • ppg = 0.58

I'll have to admit that Fantilli is the better ES goal scorer b/c 17 of his 19 points were at ES. Carlsson is the PP specialist with 7 of his 15 points generated on the PP. Carlsson has factored in 32% of our PP goals, which is probably a significant reason why our PP has improved from last season.

Yes and no, because I think if he had just a little more good luck could be around a .80 or more. He hit a lot of iron this year.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Yes and no, because I think if he had just a little more good luck could be around a .80 or more. He hit a lot of iron this year.

You should read the post above my quote where I address Carlsson being the Ducks best musician. That too will make you feel better about Carlsson v Fantilli on scoring goals.

I think we're being a bit too greedy in wanting an 18-year old rookie who's under strengthening mgmt b/c he's still filling out to put up 0.80 ppg rate on a team that finished dead last in the previous season.

Bedard is the generational talent. Zary and Rossi are from the 2020 NHL draft. Voronkov is from the 2019 draft. Cooley and Minty are from the 2022 draft. Brink is from the 2019 draft.

 

[Leonardo87]

You should read the post above my quote where I address Carlsson being the Ducks best musician. That too will make you feel better about Carlsson v Fantilli on scoring goals.

I think we're being a bit too greedy in wanting an 18-year old rookie who's under strengthening mgmt b/c he's still filling out to put up 0.80 ppg rate on a team that finished dead last in the previous season.

View attachment 787315

Bedard is the generational talent. Zary and Rossi are from the 2020 NHL draft. Voronkov is from the 2019 draft. Cooley and Minty are from the 2022 draft. Brink is from the 2019 draft.

I’m just saying with how he has looked could have more. Again he is doing great but I think he can be doing even better from seeing some of his flashes and potential.

I never wanted him to go back to Sweden or down to the AHL, so every game is critical to see how he does in that regard .

You mention the ES production, and if Zegras didn’t get hurt, Killorn and Terry struggling earlier that number would be better. A lot of “ifs” but those are big ifs.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

I’m just saying with how he has looked could have more. Again he is doing great but I think he can be doing even better from seeing some of his flashes and potential.

I never wanted him to go back to Sweden or down to the AHL, so every game is critical to see how he does in that regard .

You mention the ES production, and if Zegras didn’t get hurt, Killorn and Terry struggling earlier that number would be better. A lot of “ifs” but those are big ifs.

I don't think every game is critical for an 18-year old who isn't an "overripen prospect".

Going into this season for Carlsson, I wanted two things:

1. Play top-6C role and minutes
2. Consistency in playing atmosphere

1. Carlsson is playing a top-6C role with the Ducks. Sure, it's a part-time thing, but he'd be playing the same amount of games in the SHL and we wouldn't bat an eye. Prospect Lekkerimaki is playing for Orebro this year and he's played in 24 games with the team. Carlsson has played 22 NHL games. Now, here's the odd part, the SHL started in September and the NHL started in October.

2. If Carlsson were to be playing in the SHL, then Carlsson wouldn't participate in the Ducks training camp as it interferes with the SHL regular season. But since Carlsson did participate in the Ducks training camp, then I didn't want Carlsson going back to the SHL b/c he was just introduced to new coaching staff, teammates, and schemes. It doesn't make any sense to make Carlsson relearn how to play with Orebro (SHL) as well as generate chemistry out of nowhere.

Since Carlsson was staying on NA ice, then the choices were between the AHL and NHL. I would have preferred he played in the AHL and dominate it. Recently, De Leo returned from LTIR and joined the Gulls. He helped the team snap a 13-game losing streak and have been winning more. Carlsson could have been that much of a catalyst offensively for the Gulls. Not surprisingly, the Gulls have only played 23 games this season, which is more attuned to Carlsson's strength mgmt schedule.

Verbeek wanted Carlsson with the Ducks instead. With the NHL club, Carlsson get better everything compared to the AHL level from travel to medical and everything in between. It's evident that Carlsson isn't even a ripe prospect as he's had several games where he's invisible. That's fine if you accept that Carlsson isn't a ripe prospect and we're trying to ripen him sooner with this strength mgmt program. What's more important is the NHL experience he's gaining already. This is all a setup for next season, where we should see a big jump in production in Carlsson's second season. Zegras, Drysdale, and Mac all improved their production in their second season in the NHL.

As Carlsson continues to get stronger, then he might also have better accuracy in shooting than relying on luck. So I'm not worried about Carlsson' production, tbh, but I am ecstatic that he's producing at a high clip. And that's partly thanks for having days off along with strength building. Minty and LaCombe hit a wall around game 15.

 

[Firequacker]

I'm curious how many shot attempts he had. I know there were a couple that he put high/wide. Sure, he needs to get some shots on goal, but if we're just looking at how well he played, if he had zero shots on goal but had three or four shot attempts from good scoring areas, I'm not at all upset with his play.

On that note, does anyone know where we can see individual player shot attempts, both on a per-game and aggregate basis? On-ice shot attempts are available in several places, but I can't find somewhere (free) that gives individual player shot attempts.

Natural Stat Trick shows individual shot attempts as iCF, it's available under individual stats in the game reports and in the player listings. Leo had three 5v5 iCF against the Red Wings, tied for third on the team, nothing on the power play but he had very little time there.
(If you meant somewhere that actually visualizes where the attempts were from, sorry though you can probably get a general sense of how dangerous the shot attempts were from iSCF and ixG.)

 

[JAHV]

Natural Stat Trick shows individual shot attempts as iCF, it's available under individual stats in the game reports and in the player listings. Leo had three 5v5 iCF against the Red Wings, tied for third on the team, nothing on the power play but he had very little time there.
(If you meant somewhere that actually visualizes where the attempts were from, sorry though you can probably get a general sense of how dangerous the shot attempts were from iSCF and ixG.)

No, that's what I was looking for, thank you. I spend most of my time at NST looking at on-ice stats. That's very helpful.

 

[ZEBROA]

Not really worried about his pace with Fantilli. Let’s enjoy the player we have and his progression. Who cares at this point what Fantilli does, he’s not a Duck and I’m 99.9% sure he never will be.

Also as far as him having 0 shots and “needing to step up now”. Let’s relax a little bit, he’s going to have off games he’s 18. He still had moments he looked dynamic.

I dont demand him to step up, i wish he do. If he can be more and more consistent at this age it will be very helpfull for him in the future . He is learning while playing with an against the best. So i expect way larger "slumps" then a few games.

 

[ZEBROA]

Zero shots on goal doesn't mean zero shots attempted. Some shot attempts could be wide, some shot attempts could have been blocked, and some shot attempts hit the bar or post (it's that pinging sound). Carlsson would be considered a musician with the Ducks because of all of the pinging sounds he creates off of the bar and posts.

As for scoring, why would Carlsson keeping up with Fantilli not be a possibility? Here are tournaments where both participated, same ice sheet and same opponent levels. Let's review the results.

• WJC-20
  • Carlsson: 7 games, 3g + 3a = 6 pts, +4 rating
    3rd in team scoring
    22 SOG for a 13.64 Shooting %
  • Fantilli: 7 games, 2g + 3a = 5 pts, +0 rating
    9th in team scoring
    21 SOG for a 9.52 Shooting %

• WC
  • Carlsson: 7 games, 3g + 2a = 5 pts, +5 rating
    6th in team scoring, 1st in team goal scoring
    12 SOG for a 25.00 Shooting %
  • Fantilli: 10 games, 1g + 2a = 3 pts, +3 rating
    13th in team scoring, 9th in team goal scoring
    23 SOG for a 4.35 Shooting %

Apparently, Carlsson is the goal scorer between the two at the international events. Fantilli is a high volume shooter, but a less accurate shooter. Carlsson is usually a low volume shooter, but a more accurate shooter. This info was known before the 2023 NHL draft.

Looking up the rookie scoreboard this morning, Dec 20, 2023:

• Rookie Shooting % in NHL
  • Carlsson: 22 games, 8 goals, 46 shots
    17.4% shooting pct
    5th in Shooting % with 10 or more games played for rookies
  • Fantilli: 33 games, 9 goals, 82 shots
    11.0% shooting pct
    17th in Shooting % with 10 or more games played for rookies

The pattern continues for both players in the NHL level.

Thanks for that informative info!

 

[LuGBuG]

Tonight against Washington when he stole the puck from the other team in our zone then skated it up the ice gained the zone and dished it. They showed a highlight earlier in the intermission. Can anyone clip that and upload it?

 

[Anaheim4ever]

Even after the injuries he's producing more than Fantilli lately. I enjoy eating crow lol.

Cutter is the perfect fit on his wing imo, he's got the speed to keep up when Carlsson turns on the jets.
Then just put Zegras on McTavish line.

 

[Kalv]

While I'm not sure about Pat in some areas (draft and asset management – can't say it's bad but also not convinced fully yet), him being so confidently in on Carlsson early on... he gets a confidence boost from me.

I'd have loved Fantilli as well but Carlsson is just a different breed. Terry and Getzlafs hybrid plus reads the game like a book. Big thing will be for him to stay healthy.

 

[Anaheim4ever]

While I'm not sure about Pat in some areas (draft and asset management – can't say it's bad but also not convinced fully yet), him being so confidently in on Carlsson early on... he gets a confidence boost from me.

I'd have loved Fantilli as well but Carlsson is just a different breed. Terry and Getzlafs hybrid plus reads the game like a book. Big thing will be for him to stay healthy.

A 'modern' version of Getzlaf in that he's got a much upgraded skating ability and not as afraid to shoot the puck. I like how he 'knows when' to use his speed, once he decides to go fast he can really take off like a Swedish Koenigsegg sports car lol.