News Article: Lebreton project

[DaveMatthew]

that's a fluff answer and it doesn't provide you any insight

try and answer it...or continue with your head in the sand

I can get why Ruddy et al want to move forward. ... everyone makes money....but I don't get it from the Senators perspective

Then again, why'd they spend over 4 years on this project? Are they stupid?

Why did they tout this as the future, as the next big thing for fans and the franchise? The whole dog and pony show of displaying the model of the future development at CTC and winning the bid?

If it makes as little sense as you say, why didn't they do that due diligence and just pass on the partnership in 2014?

“Everybody is (emotional and enthusiastic about it). Everybody is saying, ‘This is the biggest thing to happen to the city in the past 50 years.”

"Melnyk is convinced that this decision by the NCC is going to be a game-changer for the franchise. He believes now, more than ever, this will be a turning point for the Senators to win a championship and is hopeful this project is going to be a selling point to attract the right people to join the club down the road."

"“There’s nothing that can’t be overcome,” Melnyk said. “One of my weaknesses is I do everything at double the speed that everybody else wants to do it. I’ve just got to dial down and make sure the right people are in place."

One year later, things looking up for Melnyk

All crap?

 

[JD1]

So you want to continue to avoid the question, answer man.

What do YOU think the change in valuation of the team is with the move from Kanata to Lebreton?

around and around you go...you do this all the time

you said the value increases

I ask you by how much...do the math

 

[DaveMatthew]

yep. I've wondered why he left and it was never explained. he came on AFTER the bid went in....maybe he looked at it and said it makes no f'n sense and left

Anselmi left because of a dispute over his year-end bonus.

 

[DaveMatthew]

around and around you go...you do this all the time


you said the value increases

I ask you by how much...do the math

According to Forbes, the Oiler's franchise value jumped from $225M to over $400M because of their new arena, so a 78% increase.

David Staples: Value of Oilers franchise has shot up because of downtown arena

 

[Sensung]

around and around you go...you do this all the time


you said the value increases

I ask you by how much...do the math

You are the one that claimed the project had to self fund and ignored ROI due to increased valuation of the franchise.

Are you claiming the team is worth the same after Lebreton is built?

 

[Sensung]

Anselmi left because of a dispute over his year-end bonus.

Well that and "the craziness".

I wonder who he was talking about...

 

[JD1]

Then again, why'd they spend over 4 years on this project? Are they stupid?

Why did they tout this as the future, as the next big thing for fans and the franchise? The whole dog and pony show of displaying the model of the future development at CTC and winning the bid?

If it makes as little sense as you say, why didn't they do that due diligence and just pass on the partnership in 2014?

that's a really good question and I don't have an answer for it....personally I suspect that uncle Eugene figured he'd be able to wax a bit of public money along the line or maybe wax Ruddy for more .... typical Eugene things....I just don't see it from Melnyk's end from the get go without getting "more" from somewhere and I suspect "more" isn't materializing... it's not Ruddy's concern to make sense of it from Melnyk's view, only from his own and if uncle Eugene keeps asking Ruddy for more eventually Ruddy has to say it doesn't make sense for him

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

Found this interesting.

Bagnall: What could be the issues between Melnyk and Ruddy?

 

[JD1]

According to Forbes, the Oiler's franchise value jumped from $225M to over $400M because of their new arena, so a 78% increase.

David Staples: Value of Oilers franchise has shot up because of downtown arena

right...but look at the deal they have. ...it's quite different

 

[JD1]

Are you claiming the team is worth the same after Lebreton is built?

Lol. ..you're so predictable. .. read back a few posts...I even said you'd come out with this

 

[Engineer]

right...but look at the deal they have. ...it's quite different

Very insightful analysis, you surely changed peoples opinions with this one.

 

[NorthCoast]

you say that like you have an answer

you continue to just blow noise Sensung

why don't you take a shot at spelling out what that increased value is...seriously...put some numbers together. start at the 420 forbes credits the value at currently and go from there

you're pretty ****ing keen on posting fluff... put something credible together that supports what you've said

NHL team values have increase on avg. 172% in the last ten years from 220 mil to 598 mil. But lets be conservative and say that over the next 20 years they only double every ten year. If that trend continues (you can debate either side but the trend is factual) then over the next 20 years the increase in value would cover the teams portion of the arena build.

420 * 2 = 840 (first ten years)
722 * 2 = 1680 (second ten years)

1680 - 420 = 1260 mil ROI

Price of new arena = 500 mil (cost of arena portion of Edmonton project)

20 Year ROI after arena = 760 Mil!

So even if Melnyk gets nothing from the rest of the project the ROI is still there.

Is there more ROI is he stays in Kanata. Don't know, but when you add up the infrastructure costs of maintaining the CTC over 20 years compared to a brand new building, plus the difference in revenue generation from new building to old, plus the increased value of the franchise that would come from a better location...it's probably pretty comparable over a 20 year period.

The ROI is clearly there.

Of course maybe you don't believe that values will keep increasing, but others do, including other billionaires, which is why they keep buying teams

 

[DaveMatthew]

Found this interesting.

Bagnall: What could be the issues between Melnyk and Ruddy?

Nothing new in there. Eugene Melnyk takes the Donald Trump approach to negotiating. He's a grifter, plain and simple.

At this point, who knows what his end-game is.

He doesn't have the financial capital to develop a new arena in Lebreton.
He doesn't have the financial capital to re-locate the team.
He doesn't want to take on partners.
He's told everyone that he's bleeding money in Kanata and has had to strip the organization to the bone.
He's told everyone that he won't "underwrite a hockey team with money that he's made from a lifetime of hard work in other industries".

So what's the plan? Continue to take-on debt to fund the losses of a shitty NHL team?

I don't know, maybe he just wants to spite the entire city, but none of the things he's doing benefit him. It's mind-boggling.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

right...but look at the deal they have. ...it's quite different

Sure the deal is structured differently but that's what Melnyk is chasing: a considerable increase in the value of the franchise.

This isn't very mysterious.

 

[Sensung]

Lol. ..you're so predictable. .. read back a few posts...I even said you'd come out with this

And predictably, you are spinning like crazy to avoid answering a basic question

 

[Gil Gunderson]

Nothing new in there. Eugene Melnyk takes the Donald Trump approach to negotiating. He's a grifter, plain and simple.

At this point, who knows what his end-game is.

He doesn't have the financial capital to develop a new arena in Lebreton.
He doesn't have the financial capital to re-locate the team.
He doesn't want to take on partners.
He's told everyone that he's bleeding money in Kanata and has had to strip the organization to the bone.
He's told everyone that he won't "underwrite a hockey team with money that he's made from a lifetime of hard work in other industries".

So what's the plan? Continue to take-on debt to fund the losses of a ****ty NHL team?

I don't know, maybe he just wants to spite the entire city, but none of the things he's doing benefit him. It's mind-boggling.

Those relocation threats look pretty funny right now.

 

[GCK]

And predictably, you are spinning like crazy to avoid answering a basic question

To be fair he asked you the question and rather than answer you just asked the same question back.

 

[DaveMatthew]

right...but look at the deal they have. ...it's quite different

So what's plan B?

We all know that the team is hemorrhaging money in Kanata. Melnyk has told everyone so, numerous times.

Now Melnyk believes, by all reports, that developing Lebreton doesn't make sense financially.

He also doesn't want to sell or take on a partner, or lease in someone else's arena.

If he can't build his own arena in Ottawa, he certainly can't build one in another city in addition to financing re-location fees and absorbing all the costs involved in moving the team (hiring, marketing, sales, etc)... and he's already ruled out bringing on partners or playing in someone else's rink...

So what's the next move?

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

I don't know, maybe he just wants to spite the entire city, but none of the things he's doing benefit him. It's mind-boggling.

I agree, and wonder what his end game is.

Is he looking for the City to partially fund, or become the Arena owners, like Katz did in Edmonton?



Edmonton City Council approves deal to build new NHL arena


How the Edmonton arena deal was done

 

[GCK]

I agree, and wonder what his end game is.

Is he looking for the City to partially fund, or become the Arena owners, like Katz did in Edmonton?



Edmonton City Council approves deal to build new NHL arena


How the Edmonton arena deal was done

Ironically Watson won’t bend over like the Edmonton mayor did.

 

[DaveMatthew]

I agree, and wonder what his end game is.

Is he looking for the City to partially fund, or become the Arena owners, like Katz did in Edmonton?



Edmonton City Council approves deal to build new NHL arena


How the Edmonton arena deal was done

And he's waited until the last 8 weeks to make this ask?

If he was looking for the city to partially fund the arena, you think it would have been brought up during the bid process or early on afterwards, no?

But now what? If the city won't agree in the next two months, which they won't, and Ruddy doesn't cave, which he won't, the NCC will just go with the other bid. They're going to develop the land whether Melnyk and the Senators are involved or not.

They only one who loses is Melnyk.

Ruddy will be disappointed, sure, and he'll lose out on a ton of potential profit, but he won't still be the owner of a money-losing NHL team in Kanata that draws 14k fans a game.

 

[Sensung]

I agree, and wonder what his end game is.

Is he looking for the City to partially fund, or become the Arena owners, like Katz did in Edmonton?



Edmonton City Council approves deal to build new NHL arena


How the Edmonton arena deal was done

Well at least Melnyk has a massive resevoir of good will built up with the City and general public to tap into...

 

[JD1]

So what's plan B?

We all know that the team is hemorrhaging money in Kanata. Melnyk has told everyone so, numerous times.

Now Melnyk believes, by all reports, that developing Lebreton doesn't make sense financially.

He also doesn't want to sell or take on a partner, or lease in someone else's arena.

If he can't build his own arena in Ottawa, he certainly can't build one in another city in addition to financing re-location fees and absorbing all the costs involved in moving the team (hiring, marketing, sales, etc)... and he's already ruled out bringing on partners or playing in someone else's rink...

So what's the next move?

idk

and I'm not saying your questions aren't legit

this whole situation smells

 

[IpsoPostFacto]

Very insightful analysis, you surely changed peoples opinions with this one.

I think his point was that even with the carrot of the increased franchise value, Katz felt he had to corner the city into covering, what was it, about 60% of the cost of a new rink and the right to develop the commercial space around the rink.; it does make a difference if someone hands you 225m.

30,000ft level I tend to agree with the point that the reason for the sens to move downtown is not based on getting more concerts or more conventions, neither is a factor.

Franchise value probably goes, up, but if you don't plan to sell (as he insists on telling us, whatever) then that is nice, but it doesn't pay the bills. you can borrow against it I suppose, but loans have to be repaid and ticket price changes just aren't going to cover that.

There is a suggestion he wants the group to pay for his rink. could be true; nobody, anywhere, was excited about new condos, but a new fancy rink - that can really bring some heat to the project from a visibility/excitement standpoint.

Another suggestion is that he is looking for the right to develop around the rink - a-la Landsdowne. can be a factor too.

It does seem a little late in the game to not have had all of that settled with the very real risk that the NCC will just pull the plug and go with the other bidder.

Uncle Euge may be overplaying his hand.

 

[JD1]

I think his point was that even with the carrot of the increased franchise value, Katz felt he had to corner the city into covering, what was it, about 60% of the cost of a new rink and the right to develop the commercial space around the rink.; it does make a difference if someone hands you 225m.

30,000ft level I tend to agree with the point that the reason for the sens to move downtown is not based on getting more concerts or more conventions, neither is a factor.

Franchise value probably goes, up, but if you don't plan to sell (as he insists on telling us, whatever) then that is nice, but it doesn't pay the bills. you can borrow against it I suppose, but loans have to be repaid and ticket price changes just aren't going to cover that.

There is a suggestion he wants the group to pay for his rink. could be true; nobody, anywhere, was excited about new condos, but a new fancy rink - that can really bring some heat to the project from a visibility/excitement standpoint.

Another suggestion is that he is looking for the right to develop around the rink - a-la Landsdowne. can be a factor too.

It does seem a little late in the game to not have had all of that settled with the very real risk that the NCC will just pull the plug and go with the other bidder.

Uncle Euge may be overplaying his hand.

well said

and if he can't overplay his hand he may not have one