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Post-Game Talk: Leafs Win 4-3

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Critical91 said:
Look, I don't want to be a buzzkill, but we need to be a lot better than we have been lately. The post Tkachuk tears hangover is hitting me, and I am recalling just how awful we were for 35 minutes of the game last night.

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interestingly it wasn't 35 minutes.

About 5 minutes into the 2nd, after we had scored our 3rd goal, we were at 1.53xgf, and the Flames were at 0.68.

From that point until they tied it up 25 minutes later 10 minutes into the 3rd, the Flames racked up 1.96xgf to the Leafs 0.54.

But then, after the Flames tied it, in the last 10 minutes the Leafs racked up another 0.66xgf and the flames only 0.07xgf.

So really it was a very strong 35 minutes for the leafs, with 25 minutes of dominance by the flames from when they went down 3-1 until they tied it.

So while the leafs played nowhere near well enough after taking that 3-1 lead, they turned it back up as soon as the Flames tied it and closed out the game nicely. This game is a pretty solid example of score effects in action.

I'm hoping that this is mostly just a very tired Leafs team taking the foot off the gas when they went up a couple and a rested angry flames team taking advantage.
 
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zeke said:
what's not to understand?

it's a concept far far older than "advanced stats" are.

Even when i was a kid commentators would always point out how meaningless 3rd period shot barrages were from teams that were down a couple goals.

it's no surprise that a closer look at shot attempts (i.e. current analytics) proves this old hockey adage quite clearly.

and there's no mystery behind it - you can easily go to naturalstattrick.com and compare how every team does in raw shot attempt outputs when ahead or behind. you'll find the same effect for all teams, regardless of how good or bad they are.
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I am just trying to learn. If a team suddenly becomes better when behind, why aren't they employing those tactics all game?

Does "emotion" have that much of an effect on intensity?

Does it affect all teams, or just ones with other issues? For example, I don't see Tampa often falling to 25% xGF everytime they are ahead, but the Leafs do seem to to get burried in that situation.
 
Score effects is just one team playing conservative to protect the lead and the other throwing everything but the kitchen sink at the net hoping for a bounce. In the 3rd we were collapsing the whole team below the hash-marks and giving up the blue line completely, so Calgary pounded a lot of point shots in. Things like that are why the sample size needs to include several games before it's worth anything.

Regardless of score effects we were outplayed in periods 2 & 3, but we missed the net on a lot of odd man rushes that could've extended the lead as well.

It was nice to see our players attack the middle lane instead of button-hooking and back-passing to the D. Consequently they were rewarded for it. Hope that positive reinforcement allows it to continue.
 
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Tak7 said:
A good lesson for all of you who wanted Tkachuk gooned before the game last night: that's exactly how you deal with him.
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Amazing how the stars had to lineup for that sequence to have happened. I'm starting to believe in the hockey Gods thing.
 
The Podium said:
She wasnt bad, just unnecessary rambling and questionable opinions. Seemed like she was catering her commentary to people who dont know too much about hockey.
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She'll likely get better with time. I don't remember much about her opinions but I guess everyone's opinions are questionable to some degree. Maybe I'm being too nice but I'm happy to cut some slack to someone that's new.

Twine Tickler said:
I agree with you on how we were not very good last night. I think we have to cut the boys some slack though, they gutted out 2 wins against a solid opponent, having played 8 games in 13 days. Not to mention the losses of Campbell, Jumbo, Robertson and AM34 for 1 game. The hockey was sloppy last night, most specifically the 2nd period. They likely did not deserve to get 2 pts, but they found a way to make it happen. Its a win you tend to get when the team is rolling, and never get when the team is slumping. At the end, they dont ask how, they ask how many. I do think Calgary was really sharp from the 2nd period onward, and I think they deserve some credit. They put our D in tough spots going back on pucks with sending 2 guys in on the forecheck. Our forwards were way to slow coming back on support IMO, never gave our D an option it seemed. They had to eat the puck and wait for the support or rag it. Which ultimately led to a bunch of sloppy exits and turnovers in our own zone. I don't think we started to play again until the game got tied up. I was happy to see the response after the JG goal, the game was far more even after that. They really fought for that W in the last 10 mins. Especially that 6 on 4, they played so well on that PK. But I agree, most nights when you play that way, you will lose. Not to be the Babcock of the board, but this is exactly why its important to start on time. The strong 1st was ultimately the biggest difference in this game
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Agree completely.

Zoltar said:
Things seem to be going pretty well for the team. From a standings perspective, we are doing well. Our play could be better over 60 minutes, but it has been fairly decent for good chunks of a game in recent games. I like this divisional focus in terms of giving us a better (best) chance at making into the Conference finals.
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TBH we haven't been playing great but there's always something to be said for winning. Imagine if our record was 4-4, people would be freaking out. We're a work in progress, not even 10 games into the season, several new faces to adjust to, there's enough bright spots to compensate for our weaknesses to keep me happy anyway. Holl, Brodie and our big 4 forwards all look good, a 6-2 record, only one major injury, overall I'm more than happy.

And the division is so good for us. To me we look like the weakest division in hockey, no question that the prospect of playing whoever in the first two rounds is so much better than playing Boston and Tampa. I don't think any team benefits more than us from this setup (though you could argue that it's good for everyone in our division except for irrelevant Ottawa). I'm looking forward to winning the cup and the yahoos on the main boards talking about how many asterixes our cup has next to it because of the divisions. :neener:

We're set up perfectly and this is the chance of a lifetime, make it happen guys!!
 
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Personally, I don't like using the "tired" excuse. If they are tired after 8 games, how tired are they gonna be after 56 in like 110 days? And then the playoffs. I just don't think it's valid. Everyone is "tired".
 
Critical91 said:
I am just trying to learn. If a team suddenly becomes better when behind, why aren't they employing those tactics all game?

Does "emotion" have that much of an effect on intensity?

Does it affect all teams, or just ones with other issues? For example, I don't see Tampa often falling to 25% xGF everytime they are ahead, but the Leafs do seem to to get burried in that situation.
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Its a common statistical problem. Statistics are but a curve that best fits many micro-variables. Over time they can look quite good but the small frequency of the micro-variable makes it impossible to model with infinite accuracy. This is especially true when the population is never a closed system. Actions draw reactions causing a behavioral variability.

With only 21 shots by the leafs, the variability of a relatively low frequency event could be huge. Pre shot movements would be a big determination of how many goal opportunities there are.
Real High danger shots are not all about shot location either
 
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Suntouchable13 said:
Personally, I don't like using the "tired" excuse. If they are tired after 8 games, how tired are they gonna be after 56 in like 110 days? And then the playoffs. I just don't think it's valid. Everyone is "tired".
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To be fair, Calgary isn't tired.

They just had a nice little break in the action. They will be, though...someone in their GDT mentioned they play more or less 1 game per 2 days for the rest of the season.
 
Notsince67 said:
Its a common statistical problem. Statistics are but a curve that best fits many micro-variables. Over time they can look quite good but the small frequency of the micro-variable makes it impossible to model with infinite accuracy. This is especially true when the population is never a closed system. Actions draw reactions causing a behavioral variability.

With only 21 shots by the leafs, the variability of a relatively low frequency event could be huge. Pre shot movements would be a big determination of how many goal opportunities there are.
Real High danger shots are not all about shot location either
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I appreciate your effort but I'm too dumb for this post. I'm "Matthew Tkachuk fights a waterbottle" dumb.
 
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Critical91 said:
To be fair, Calgary isn't tired.

They just had a nice little break in the action. They will be, though...someone in their GDT mentioned they play more or less 1 game per 2 days for the rest of the season.
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That's fine, just don't say they were "tired" if something undesirable happens in the playoffs. It's good that they are winning while "tired".
 
Calgary just doesn't seem like a great team. Even when they tied it up 3-3 I wasn't worried about the result. As soon as the leafs turned it on again they closed the game.
 
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