Confirmed with Link: LEAFS WIN #1 PICK IN 2026 NHL DRAFT

[notDatsyuk]

I watched the draft. The Leafs were literally shown as having (I think) a 28% chance of 2nd overall when picking the the second lottery ball. My mind is mushy these days but I remember that clearly.

See for yourself:

I watched only about 30 seconds of that clip, and the announcer said at least twice that a Leafs win meant a redraw.

 

[Stephen]

1. The lack of context, at times.
2. So the facts and data say nothing - everything. He can be from nothing to between Crosby Lemieux. Why use them? To value ceiling?
3. Sometimes. Thank you for asking , so very kind of you.

Comparing is nice. But silly sometimes. Looking at the "same" stats Stenberg will be better then P. Forsberg and better then McKenna by their advanced stats at Junior worlds. And Bjorck with his 74p in 42g in J20 would eclipse them both.

The problem i got is just that. People take these isolated stats and run with it.

I want us to get McKenna, but not the hype.

To me it feels like you have an inelastic hierarchy of names and have slotted them a certain way. End of the day, no one saw the immediate greatness or magnitude of dominance in Celebrini or Schaefer either. Sometimes you just keep an open mind. Any one of McKenna, Bjorck or Stenberg could go on and have a special career.

 

[Stephen]

It’s stats to show that he was a complete stud in Junior and using historical comparisons. What exactly is your issue with facts and data? Did anyone say he was Crosby or Lemieux? Or do you have problems conceptualizing using supporting information?

People tend to be preconditioned to put a low ceiling on anything that’s remotely in the Leaf orbit and call it realism. Even when you win a lottery and can call the name of the best player in the land.

 

[notDatsyuk]

I think his capacity to pile up points is going to be different than a typical 1OA because he could be slotted into different top six combinations and be supported by veterans everywhere. Plus special teams time.

Exactly - with all the vets there, he may not get the PP time or as much ice time, and he may not even start the season with the Leafs.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Exactly - with all the vets there, he may not get the PP time or as much ice time, and he may not even start the season with the Leafs.

Cant have him taking Joshua’s critical offensive minutes if we want to win games. Maybe see if he can get an exceptional player allowance to be released back to Medicine Hat for a year or two?

 

[notDatsyuk]

Cant have him taking Joshua’s critical offensive minutes if we want to win games. Maybe see if he can get an exceptional player allowance to be released back to Medicine Hat for a year or two?

I'm not the one who said we have "veterans everywhere".

It's most likely he starts with the Leafs (always assuming we pick him), and he will probably get good ice time with the top lines, but believing he will immediately play top 6 minutes and be on PP1 might be overly optimistic.

 

[ZEBROA]

People tend to be preconditioned to put a low ceiling on anything that’s remotely in the Leaf orbit and call it realism. Even when you win a lottery and can call the name of the best player in the land.

Wtf i am a leaffan. Are we known to put a low ceiling on players? McKenna is not even nr1 on all teams list. Can we have nice things and a realistic view ? Is that wrong. Saing he might not be Lemieux is not a low ceiling.

 

[RomanianLeafs]

I see something around 15 goals and 40 assists first season...around 60 points anyway...nearly half of them on the power play...then i can see him going for 80 90 points the following 2 seasons and then he will be 100 points player rest of the career if no serious înjury occurs..

 

[BertCorbeau]

Hiller did well with this personnel on the PP before so adding McKenna with Matthews, Willy, and JT .. he should get some good looks there

 

[ZEBROA]

To me it feels like you have an inelastic hierarchy of names and have slotted them a certain way. End of the day, no one saw the immediate greatness or magnitude of dominance in Celebrini or Schaefer either. Sometimes you just keep an open mind. Any one of McKenna, Bjorck or Stenberg could go on and have a special career.

They could, but i would not use those stats. Could be way missleading. Would prefer Video,video video and advanced stats. Still hard to compare the current level to NHL and get it right. Not even sure we take McKenna, got a feeling anything can happen this time around.

 

[authentic]

They could, but i would not use those stats. Could be way missleading. Would prefer Video,video video and advanced stats. Still hard to compare the current level to NHL and get it right. Not even sure we take McKenna, got a feeling anything can happen this time around.

I think every team in the NHL would draft McKenna. And we are most certainly drafting McKenna.

 

[Stephen]

They could, but i would not use those stats. Could be way missleading. Would prefer Video,video video and advanced stats. Still hard to compare the current level to NHL and get it right. Not even sure we take McKenna, got a feeling anything can happen this time around.

I don't think anyone is expecting McKenna to be Mario Lemieux other than posting historic junior rates of production. So you're fighting something that isn't there.

As far as being 'realistic', maybe one could err on the side of caution and say McKenna will have the worst career out of Lindros, Crosby, McDavid, Lemieux and Bedard and put a cap on the optimism. Because it's misleading. But at the same time, we don't know that will be the case. No one could have predicted Nikita Kucherov would cruise control to 1100 points by 33.

 

[ZEBROA]

I don't think anyone is expecting McKenna to be Mario Lemieux other than posting historic junior rates of production. So you're fighting something that isn't there.

As far as being 'realistic', maybe one could err on the side of caution and say McKenna will have the worst career out of Lindros, Crosby, McDavid, Lemieux and Bedard and put a cap on the optimism. Because it's misleading. But at the same time, we don't know that will be the case. No one could have predicted Nikita Kucherov would cruise control to 1100 points by 33.

The people that think McKenna will be the best player ever, are out there, i have talked to them. We know nothing about if he will reach his ceiling or the other players in the draft. And the difference that will make.

 

[ZEBROA]

I think every team in the NHL would draft McKenna. And we are most certainly drafting McKenna.

He is not 1st on every teams list. I think he is first on Torontos list. They can not walk past extra money and a happy Matthews. But who knows. They could also galaxy brain this.

 

[Maplebeasts]

He is not 1st on every teams list. I think he is first on Torontos list. They can not walk past extra money and a happy Matthews. But who knows. They could also galaxy brain this.

I think he is and the assertions otherwise is just noise to generate clicks and discussion since we own the pick. It seems to be a pretty unanimous opinion that he is the most skilled player in the draft with the highest ceiling and one of the best offensive skillsets the draft has seen in the last decade.

 

[Hellcat]

Verheoff?!

LOL... you know who I mean...

 

[Hellcat]

He is not 1st on every teams list. I think he is first on Torontos list. They can not walk past extra money and a happy Matthews. But who knows. They could also galaxy brain this.

Some scouts have reservations about McKenna. His 5 on 5 play in the NCAA has been pretty bland, his production on the PP is elite. A lot of Mckenna fans are saying he dominated after xmas.... that was largely due to PP points. There is no doubting his abilities, he's dominated everywhere he has gone and often he was the youngest or one of the youngest on his team. So there is that.

I know the conventional wisdom when you have 1 OA is you draft BPA, that is Mckenna for most scouts and hockey people. However that conventional wisdom is for teams that are in a rebuild because it is assumed that team will have talent gaps everywhere. We are not in a rebuild and we already have our 1st line LW, in Knies. Are we drafting 1 OA to get a 2nd line LW? If we are drafting for a 2nd line LW, why not consider Reid who is by all accounts the total package, not a Hughes, Makar or Schaefer but is projected to be a 1st pair , PP QB, that is a guy who can drive play from the back end.

Maybe the plan is to draft McKenna and trade Knies for a 1st pairing Dman? Who has a glut of Dmen that have 1st pairing potential or are 1st pairing today? Not many I would guess.

 

[darrylsittler27]

What is this love affair with trading Knies? Our forward group is a bunch of wimps.

 

[ITM]

What is this love affair with trading Knies? Our forward group is a bunch of wimps.

A sense of deference to a peculiar media driven inevitability perhaps?

I could see wheels turning in upper management inferring the following:

Win now:
Offer sheet Bourque.
Sign Tuch.
Haul for Knies that includes replacement at position, plus bluechip, plus 1st.

Don’t think a sign and trade is happening with Buffalo, but…stranger things. And IF that happened, lol…Oh man.

Similarly, I would like our homegrown unicorn Maple Leaf to remain in the fold.

 

[Gabriel426]

What is this love affair with trading Knies? Our forward group is a bunch of wimps.

Leafs nation getting bored and the idea of rebuild with all the top 5 picks in this year draft.

Pretty sure a lot of them would rather trade AM for 2OA, Willie for 3OA and Knies for 4OA for a rebuild as rebuild give them hope for winning the Cup.

 

[kb]

Leafs nation getting bored and the idea of rebuild with all the top 5 picks in this year draft.

Pretty sure a lot of them would rather trade AM for 2OA, Willie for 3OA and Knies for 4OA for a rebuild as rebuild give them hope for winning the Cup.

Never forget, this place started out where superstars were only measured by their prospect returns, and not their on ice performance.

Having 5-1st round picks was better than having a great team.

It was asinine and the reason I didn't post until most of that prospect lusters left, as no reasonable conversation could happen.

 

[Gabriel426]

Never forget, this place started out where superstars were only measured by their prospect returns, and not their on ice performance.

Having 5-1st round picks was better than having a great team.

It was asinine and the reason I didn't post until most of that prospect lusters left, as no reasonable conversation could happen.

Exactly.

For some reason, a lot Hockey Fans, not just Leafsnation think as long as the team drafts 4-5 yrs straight in the top 5 and a lot of picks in the 2-4rounds, the team will become a powerhouse and contend for the Cup.

You need good players to contend for the Cup regardless of age and how the team gets them.

 

[The Masters]

is the draft virtual again this yeaR?

 

[darrylsittler27]

Leafs nation getting bored and the idea of rebuild with all the top 5 picks in this year draft.

Pretty sure a lot of them would rather trade AM for 2OA, Willie for 3OA and Knies for 4OA for a rebuild as rebuild give them hope for winning the Cup.

Given the age of Mathews and Nylander I would hang onto the only young impact power forward we have.

 

[darrylsittler27]

Never forget, this place started out where superstars were only measured by their prospect returns, and not their on ice performance.

Having 5-1st round picks was better than having a great team.

It was asinine and the reason I didn't post until most of that prospect lusters left, as no reasonable conversation could happen.

We used to brutally over rate our prospects.