Confirmed with Link: LEAFS WIN #1 PICK IN 2026 NHL DRAFT

[Maria Sharapova]

Have the people who predict 30 assist rookie season watched him play before. When has a first overall went to a team with established elite players to play with. Think this is the perfect storm for some history

 

[Hellcat]

One thing is true about the Leafs in recent months, Chakaya, no one saw it coming. Heller, no one saw it coming. Our 1st OA... the guy they pick... will it be no one saw it coming? Is this a Chase Reid or a Verhoof pick? Is this a Malhotra darft?

BPA we all see coming... if its draft for need... would anyone say they saw that coming?

 

[Antropovsky]

Wonder if Chayka set a canary trap and told someone within the organization that he told Mckenna they were drafting him. It is such a random leak and very weird for a GM to tell a prospect months ahead of a draft. So much could happen between now and then. For example someone could offer a ridiculous unexpectedly great package that he couldn't say no to.

 

[Canada4Gold]

No I didn't know that. I thought any of our picks were top five lottery protected and we were at something like a 28% to get the second round pick during the lottery (better the odds for 1st overall). Please explain what I'm missing.

Toronto had 85 combinations. When you put all the balls back in you can't just make it impossible for 7, 2, 11, 12 or any of Toronto's other combos to come out of the hopper again. So Toronto's 85 combinations are just denoted redraws if one of them comes out for draw 2. Each team only has 1 pick that can move up. Toronto's odds for pick 2 were the lose 1st lottery win 2nd lottery odds. It was slightly higher than 1 because some other teams combos would be redraws.

I thought you were joking. Each team only has 1 first round pick. Which pick did you think we were moving to 2nd overall? Our 2nd rounder(which we do not own), or just magically another pick appears out of thin air? I'll admit them leaving Toronto on the screen was probably confusing. Their on screen odds should have been switched to redraw. I assumed the confusion would be "what happens if Toronto wins again?" rather than "Toronto might pick 1st and 2nd somehow"

 

[Eb]

One thing is true about the Leafs in recent months, Chakaya, no one saw it coming. Heller, no one saw it coming. Our 1st OA... the guy they pick... will it be no one saw it coming? Is this a Chase Reid or a Verhoof pick? Is this a Malhotra darft?

BPA we all see coming... if its draft for need... would anyone say they saw that coming?

Verheoff?!

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

We draft this stud yet?

The draft can't come soon enough for me. We need a little lovin' as Leafs fans.

 

[TimeZone]

I saw someone predicting 35 assists for McKenna. I think he'll have 55 assists alone, and it might be much higher than that as well.

Matthews had a generational rookie season with 40 goals, we are about to witness a generational rookie season for assists.

Average first overall forwards have produced just 46 points on average in their first season, 32 points if you take away Bedard and Celebrini who were more hyped than McKenna and viewed as more NHL ready.

You obviously have to take into account that McKenna is entering a significantly better situation, but I think those expectations are way too high.

I see him scoring 45-50 points.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

I thought you were joking. Each team only has 1 first round pick. Which pick did you think we were moving to 2nd overall? Our 2nd rounder(which we do not own), or just magically another pick appears out of thin air? I'll admit them leaving Toronto on the screen was probably confusing. Their on screen odds should have been switched to redraw. I assumed the confusion would be "what happens if Toronto wins again?" rather than "Toronto might pick 1st and 2nd somehow"

I watched the draft. The Leafs were literally shown as having (I think) a 28% chance of 2nd overall when picking the the second lottery ball. My mind is mushy these days but I remember that clearly.

See for yourself:

 

[Strangle]

Average first overall forwards have produced just 46 points on average in their first season, 32 points if you take away Bedard and Celebrini who were more hyped than McKenna and viewed as more NHL ready.

You obviously have to take into account that McKenna is entering a significantly better situation, but I think those expectations are way too high.

I see him scoring 45-50 points.

I see it the same way. 50 points would be fantastic

 

[Canada4Gold]

I watched the draft. The Leafs were literally shown as having (I think) a 28% chance of 2nd overall when picking the the second lottery ball. My mind is mushy these days but I remember that clearly.

Yes because in the list of combinations there were 85 combos that were originally denoted Leafs combinations. One of which was 7, 2, 11, 12(the original combo that won). It's possible that one of those combos comes out again. Put 14 balls into the hopper you can't just make it impossible for 7, 2, 11, 12 to come out again without removing 1 of those balls, and doing that changes everyones odds. The Leafs pick had already moved to 1st. There was no other pick to move up to 2nd. If one of those 85 combos came out then it's just a redraw. They would draw again until another team won 2nd. They did a bad job of explaining that on air. The chart on the left should have said redraw to make it more obvious. There was no other Leafs 1st rounder to move up. They can't make up a new one.

They did mention it on air 3 times, albeit briefly. 6:20 in this video he says Toronto's 4 combos are redraw(he should have said 85 combos), and then again at 8:57 he says Toronto's 3 makes it a redraw, and then just before the ball comes up at 9:21 he says 2, 10, or 12 we had a redraw

 

[Strangle]

Really?

I think it's more likely he plays PP1 then L1 tbh...especially after how our PP was pretty terrible for a lot of this season (somehow finished 21% tho lol)

we aren't gonna run 5 forwards out there IMO. It was risky as hell when we had Marner back there and I don't want Mckenna or Nylander back there sifting pucks at the net or connecting plays, i'd rather they be making the plays themselves

I would be hesitant to run back the Knies - JT - Nylander - Matthews quartet because the lack of playmaking in that. Knies is a good net front player and can make passes around the goal line, but he's not gonna leave the front of the net/slot area. JT and Matthews are pure finishers and aren't going to be making the pp work, they are finishing the playoffs of someone else. Nylander can do that, but like we saw last year he has to be both the #1 shooter and the #1 passer and that is just too much to ask of him IMO. The best pps don't have the same player doing both (McD + Drai, Kuch + Stamkos/Guentzel, Kaprizov + Boldy/Hughes, etc...)

McKenna can be that #1 passer and open up a lot for whoever the other 3 guys are on the ice. If we can get a raddysh who has a good shot that's another option. He makes it easier for Nylander to do his thing of being a dual threat, Matthews/Knies/Tavares can finish his plays and he can always take any chance he gets to shoot too.

I think a lot of his concerns seem to project on his EVS contribution, and if he can handle playing with Matthews and go against other teams shutdown lines matched to stop them from scoring with big, physical players.

whilst we aren't in a hurry, we don't have 12 forwards better than him, I'd argue we don't even have 6 better than him.

Knies should play with matthews

McKenna should play with tavares

 

[Gallagbi]

Wonder if Chayka set a canary trap and told someone within the organization that he told Mckenna they were drafting him. It is such a random leak and very weird for a GM to tell a prospect months ahead of a draft. So much could happen between now and then. For example someone could offer a ridiculous unexpectedly great package that he couldn't say no to.

Not sure it's all that rare. Tampa had a bunch of Seen Stamkos signs around the area, Burke announced he was leaving with at least 1 Sedin, etc..

It's pretty easy to say we're intended to pick you and unless something unexpected happens on the trade front, well do exactly that

The #1 pick hasn't been moved in 20+ years, about 5 times total in history (oddly 3 times by FLA) and it's really tough to imagine a situation where we'd move that pick

 

[Canada4Gold]

I watched the draft. The Leafs were literally shown as having (I think) a 28% chance of 2nd overall when picking the the second lottery ball. My mind is mushy these days but I remember that clearly.

See for yourself:

if you want an example of the same team winning both lotteries, it happened in 2024



11:05: San Jose wins the 1st pick
13:05: San Jose wins the 2nd draw, Bettman says redraw
14:50: San Jose wins the redraw, Bettman says we do another redraw
16:50: Chicago wins the 2nd redraw to get the 2nd pick

 

[Strangle]

How much does McKenna need to carry the puck? Both Matthews and Nylander need to have the puck and that makes that line a little awkward already. Knies doesn’t need to carry the puck and he can dig the pucks out.

Tavares doesn’t need to carry the puck and he can dig pucks out. Meaning there is more room for McKenna to have the puck on his stick more than on Matthews line.

I don’t mind Tavares between Cowan and McKenna if they can split between RW/LW

 

[diehardleafsfan9878]

Average first overall forwards have produced just 46 points on average in their first season, 32 points if you take away Bedard and Celebrini who were more hyped than McKenna and viewed as more NHL ready.

You obviously have to take into account that McKenna is entering a significantly better situation, but I think those expectations are way too high.

I see him scoring 45-50 points.

Cool, McKenna is not an average 1st overall forward. Celebrini 100% was also not more hyped than McKenna. More ready? Sure based on his draft year. But I dont recall much talk 2, 3 years prior to Celebrinis draft year about him. Meanwhile we've know about McKenna since he was 12 years old

 

[Aashir]

How much does McKenna need to carry the puck? Both Matthews and Nylander need to have the puck and that makes that line a little awkward already. Knies doesn’t need to carry the puck and he can dig the pucks out.

Tavares doesn’t need to carry the puck and he can dig pucks out. Meaning there is more room for McKenna to have the puck on his stick more than on Matthews line.

I don’t mind Tavares between Cowan and McKenna if they can split between RW/LW

Matthews isn't really a puck dominant player tbh.

he's not a mcdavid or mackinnon who blitzs through the neutral zone and is looking for the open man. This year it felt like 8/10 times matthews got the zone it was instantly passed to domi/knies/nylander/macelli on the half wall and then going to find space.

when he and marner played together it was actually marner who held the puck more and was trying to find matthews.

This isn't to say matthews is purely a finisher, as he has shown he can do more than just that, but I think him and mckenna can have success (and hopefully not just RS) like Matthews and Marner did

i don't mind either combo tbh, pros and cons to him being with either C

 

[Strangle]

Matthews isn't really a puck dominant player tbh.

he's not a mcdavid or mackinnon who blitzs through the neutral zone and is looking for the open man. This year it felt like 8/10 times matthews got the zone it was instantly passed to domi/knies/nylander/macelli on the half wall and then going to find space.

when he and marner played together it was actually marner who held the puck more and was trying to find matthews.

This isn't to say matthews is purely a finisher, as he has shown he can do more than just that, but I think him and mckenna can have success (and hopefully not just RS) like Matthews and Marner did

i don't mind either combo tbh, pros and cons to him being with either C

Very solid and true points

 

[Strangle]

I rewatched LFR from game 7 last year for a reminder of why this team needed change



McKenna’s attitude seems exactly what needs to be injected into this team. Doesn’t care about the noise, only cares about being the best

 

[cyris]

I watched the draft. The Leafs were literally shown as having (I think) a 28% chance of 2nd overall when picking the the second lottery ball. My mind is mushy these days but I remember that clearly.

See for yourself:

How do you think the leafs were supposed to draft twice with 1 pick???
It’s been explained to you already. After they won the 1OA lottery they couldn’t win the 2OA lottery. They just remained in that lottery because all the possible combinations of lottery balls were assigned before the lotteries took place.
If they had won the second lottery after winning the first then there just would have been a redraw

 

[TimeZone]

Cool, McKenna is not an average 1st overall forward. Celebrini 100% was also not more hyped than McKenna. More ready? Sure based on his draft year. But I dont recall much talk 2, 3 years prior to Celebrinis draft year about him. Meanwhile we've know about McKenna since he was 12 years old

What is an "average first overall forward" in your eyes?

I view McKenna as a slightly better prospect to Hughes but clearly beneath guys like Bedard and Celebrini who produced 60-70 points.

Celebrini was viewed as the superior prospect by the end of his draft year, he vastly exceeded expectations in the NHL, but saying McKenna is less hyped than Celebrini was isn't a knock on Gavin, Celebrini is literally the best NHL teenager we've seen since Sidney Crosby.

 

[kb]

What is an "average first overall forward" in your eyes?

I view McKenna as a slightly better prospect to Hughes but clearly beneath guys like Bedard and Celebrini who produced 60-70 points.

Celebrini was viewed as the superior prospect by the end of his draft year, he vastly exceeded expectations in the NHL, but saying McKenna is less hyped than Celebrini was isn't a knock on Gavin, Celebrini is literally the best NHL teenager we've seen since Sidney Crosby.

Well, McKenna's stats in his D-2 blow away almost all of them, so.....

 

[TimeZone]

Well, McKenna's stats in his D-2 blow away almost all of them, so.....

He's also a very early birthdate and well behind Celebrini, Fantilli, Eichel in their respective draft years in NCAA.

You need to have a balanced, realistic view on this prospect -- He's got very real 100+ point upside but he's clearly got some flaws as well.

 

[diehardleafsfan9878]

What is an "average first overall forward" in your eyes?

I view McKenna as a slightly better prospect to Hughes but clearly beneath guys like Bedard and Celebrini who produced 60-70 points.

Celebrini was viewed as the superior prospect by the end of his draft year, he vastly exceeded expectations in the NHL, but saying McKenna is less hyped than Celebrini was isn't a knock on Gavin, Celebrini is literally the best NHL teenager we've seen since Sidney Crosby.

I think we are getting things mixed up. I predict McKenna to have an extreme output of assists, I don’t think the goals will come easily. I think he barely cracks 70 points. It has been stated that average 1st overall production from forwards is around 40 points. Matthews had 69, and its easy to maybe call him generational now, but nobody expected a 40 goal rookie season from him.

 

[diehardleafsfan9878]

He's also a very early birthdate and well behind Celebrini, Fantilli, Eichel in their respective draft years in NCAA.

You need to have a balanced, realistic view on this prospect -- He's got very real 100+ point upside but he's clearly got some flaws as well.

His flaws are overstated. He had a HORRIBLE 1st half to his standards anyways, due to the fact that the college game was a lot faster, and stronger than he was expecting coming in. He won't be caught off guard like that again.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

How do you think the leafs were supposed to draft twice with 1 pick???
It’s been explained to you already. After they won the 1OA lottery they couldn’t win the 2OA lottery. They just remained in that lottery because all the possible combinations of lottery balls were assigned before the lotteries took place.
If they had won the second lottery after winning the first then there just would have been a redraw

Then why does the NHL literally show Toronto with the highest odds of the 2nd overall pick at the point of the video I provided?