Series Talk: Leafs vs Lightning Pre-Playoff Thread

[wingman75]

They’ll play a back to back?

I don't understand why you would say that?

Looking like TUE, THU in Toronto, SAT, MON in Tampa.

 

[DraftSchmaft]

Heading into the playoffs mediocre in xGF%, GF, Corsi, all the good stuff... with not enough transition to gritty, dominating physical team to account for it.

The optimism makes no sense to me. There are other versions of the team over the past 7 years I'd gladly choose over this one. 18/19 Leafs for example would stomp this current team in the playoffs based on what I'm seeing. Advanced stats line up with the eye test this time around.

It's going to be top 6 dominates or it doesn't. That sums up the Leafs chances.

Conveniently, these stats no longer exist or matter since Dubas can no longer claim he built a team high in them. Memory loss has hit the board like a plague.

 

[A1LeafNation]

Bunting Tavares Marner
Kerfoot O'Reilly Nylander
Knies Matthews Jarnkrok
Lafferty/ZAR Kampf Acciari

 

[ACC1224]

I don't understand why you would say that?

Looking like TUE, THU in Toronto, SAT, MON in Tampa.

You said the arena in Tampa was booked Friday, Sunday. That would mean back to back Thursday, Friday.

 

[1specter]

Heading into the playoffs mediocre in xGF%, GF, Corsi, all the good stuff... with not enough transition to gritty, dominating physical team to account for it.

The optimism makes no sense to me. There are other versions of the team over the past 7 years I'd gladly choose over this one. 18/19 Leafs for example would stomp this current team in the playoffs based on what I'm seeing. Advanced stats line up with the eye test this time around.

It's going to be top 6 dominates or it doesn't. That sums up the Leafs chances.

Leafs are 7th in xGF% and have the 5th best goal differential in the league. They would mop the floor with the 18/19 team which couldn't play a lick of defense.

You said the arena in Tampa was booked Friday, Sunday. That would mean back to back Thursday, Friday.

Does Saturday not exist?

Edit: I see the issue here. You're getting confused thinking that wingman meant the Lightning booked Amalie arena on those days, what he meant is that there's other events happening on those days that aren't NHL hockey.

 

[wingman75]

You said the arena in Tampa was booked Friday, Sunday. That would mean back to back Thursday, Friday.

Leafs are 7th in xGF% and have the 5th best goal differential in the league. They would mop the floor with the 18/19 team which couldn't play a lick of defense.


Does Saturday not exist?

Edit: I see the issue here. You're getting confused thinking that wingman meant the Lightning booked Amalie arena on those days, what he meant is that there's other events happening on those days that aren't NHL hockey.

Yes, thank you.

 

[ACC1224]

Leafs are 7th in xGF% and have the 5th best goal differential in the league. They would mop the floor with the 18/19 team which couldn't play a lick of defense.


Does Saturday not exist?

Edit: I see the issue here. You're getting confused thinking that wingman meant the Lightning booked Amalie arena on those days, what he meant is that there's other events happening on those days that aren't NHL hockey.

Thanks. Yes the original post wasn’t clear.

 

[TimeZone]

Heading into the playoffs mediocre in xGF%, GF, Corsi, all the good stuff... with not enough transition to gritty, dominating physical team to account for it.

The optimism makes no sense to me. There are other versions of the team over the past 7 years I'd gladly choose over this one. 18/19 Leafs for example would stomp this current team in the playoffs based on what I'm seeing. Advanced stats line up with the eye test this time around.

It's going to be top 6 dominates or it doesn't. That sums up the Leafs chances.

The Juggernaut Calgary Flames and Florida Panthers are currently ranked #2 and 3 in the league in regards to Corsi, the winningest team in NHL history currently sits 16th, I wouldn't get too caught up in Corsi.

They're 7th in XGF(top 5 at even strength), 10th in XGA, third in GF%.

And most importantly these numbers are primarily without ROR, and with Matthews looking like a shell of himself.

The Leafs have elite underlying numbers, with logical reason to believe they can be approved upon, they're superior to Tampa on paper, it's all going to come down to their mental game, and Samsonov.

 

[Petrus]

Heading into the playoffs mediocre in xGF%, GF, Corsi, all the good stuff... with not enough transition to gritty, dominating physical team to account for it.

The optimism makes no sense to me. There are other versions of the team over the past 7 years I'd gladly choose over this one. 18/19 Leafs for example would stomp this current team in the playoffs based on what I'm seeing. Advanced stats line up with the eye test this time around.

It's going to be top 6 dominates or it doesn't. That sums up the Leafs chances.

Are these the stats you are citing as mediocre?

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Good trends heading into the playoffs. Especially Sammmy if he’s shut down for the rest of the regular season.

 

[HolyCrap]

lol, happy wife happy life, I guess!

I remember going to a bar (in Mexico) and trying to get them to switch on the hockey game. That was game four... where they got absolutely thumped by Tampa 7-3.

I think I remember you posting about that last year. Unless it was someone else.

 

[mikeyz]

Man. Tomorrow’s game is going to be 1 of those games where I really, REALLY wish we could dress the entire Marlies team. For 2 reasons.

#1 We know how dirty those f***s are and I wouldn’t put it past them to goon it up at some point and try to injure Matthews/Marner/JT/Nylander/ROR etc before the playoffs.

And #2 I wouldn’t want to show them ANYTHING live and in real time. Let them study game tape.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Conveniently, these stats no longer exist or matter since Dubas can no longer claim he built a team high in them.

xGF% and GF% still exist and matter. The guy was just wrong. We're top 5 in both.
I don't know what we are in corsi, because nobody has really cared about corsi for the last decade.

 

[Macallan18]

Jeannot not available for start of our series with Tampa….. O’Reilly is

 

[Zybalto]

xGF% and GF% still exist and matter. The guy was just wrong. We're top 5 in both.
I don't know what we are in corsi, because nobody has really cared about corsi for the last decade.

To be fair, he did say "heading into the playoffs" so maybe he meant recent play?

Looking at the last 10 games:

Record: 6-2-2 (.700)

5v5:
CF%: 55.93
SF%: 56.98
SCF%: 59.60
HDCF% 61.89
xGF%: 61.80
GF%: 60.34
Team Save%: 93.54

All Situations:
CF%: 53.48
SF%: 54.92
SCF%: 58.78
HDCF% 62.71
xGF%: 61.34
GF%: 58.93
Team Save%: 92.28

Maybe he got us and Tampa's recent play mixed up?

Tampa s last 10 games:

Record: 3-7

xGF%: 46.09
GF%: 43.94

"Shrug"

 

[GoonieFace]

Man. Tomorrow’s game is going to be 1 of those games where I really, REALLY wish we could dress the entire Marlies team. For 2 reasons.

#1 We know how dirty those f***s are and I wouldn’t put it past them to goon it up at some point and try to injure Matthews/Marner/JT/Nylander/ROR etc before the playoffs.

And #2 I wouldn’t want to show them ANYTHING live and in real time. Let them study game tape.

Yes, there is a long history of other teams attempting to injure players in the last few games of the season. Come on, give it a rest with this Tampa is dirty BS

 

[thusk]

Heading into the playoffs mediocre in xGF%, GF, Corsi, all the good stuff... with not enough transition to gritty, dominating physical team to account for it.

The optimism makes no sense to me. There are other versions of the team over the past 7 years I'd gladly choose over this one. 18/19 Leafs for example would stomp this current team in the playoffs based on what I'm seeing. Advanced stats line up with the eye test this time around.

It's going to be top 6 dominates or it doesn't. That sums up the Leafs chances.

Last 12

Only 2 time leafs didn't finish with at least 2.95 GFx ( last night and last game vs ottawa)... they allowed 1 goal in those 2 game

7 time last 12 leafs allowed less thab 2.95 ( including game against Boston, carolina...)

So i dont is the problem...

 

[BertCorbeau]

The Juggernaut Calgary Flames and Florida Panthers are currently ranked #2 and 3 in the league in regards to Corsi, the winningest team in NHL history currently sits 16th, I wouldn't get too caught up in Corsi.

They're 7th in XGF(top 5 at even strength), 10th in XGA, third in GF%.

And most importantly these numbers are primarily without ROR, and with Matthews looking like a shell of himself.

The Leafs have elite underlying numbers, with logical reason to believe they can be approved upon, they're superior to Tampa on paper, it's all going to come down to their mental game, and Samsonov.

Nailed it right here.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

ok things are shaping up Keefer .. time to try out this tonight .. i think it will work

Bunting Matty Mitch (best on best vs Point - a little worried here but expect a square off)
JT ROR Jankrock (should beat down Cirelli)
Kerfoot Lafferty Willy (Lafferty big and fast enough to dual Paul)
Reese Kampf Acciari (square off)

Knies is not ready
Wayner comes in game 2 if Tampa roughs us up game 1

McCabe Brodie (better shut down pair get 28 minutes per night)
Gio Holl (best we got at 18 minutes)
Rielly Schenn (Rielly PP to get 18-20 minutes per night but sheltered pair)

Sammy (except not tonight)

 

[mikeyz]

Yes, there is a long history of other teams attempting to injure players in the last few games of the season. Come on, give it a rest with this Tampa is dirty BS

Except that they are a dirty team.

The Juggernaut Calgary Flames and Florida Panthers are currently ranked #2 and 3 in the league in regards to Corsi, the winningest team in NHL history currently sits 16th, I wouldn't get too caught up in Corsi.

They're 7th in XGF(top 5 at even strength), 10th in XGA, third in GF%.

And most importantly these numbers are primarily without ROR, and with Matthews looking like a shell of himself.

The Leafs have elite underlying numbers, with logical reason to believe they can be approved upon, they're superior to Tampa on paper, it's all going to come down to their mental game, and Samsonov.

This is why I can’t stand those Corsi stats.

 

[Notsince67]

Except that they are a dirty team.


This is why I can’t stand those Corsi stats.

Point of order. XG are fenwick based, not corsi

 

[Jojalu]

Why the hell would you play Samsonov? Tampa will run him at EVERY opportunity because of course they will, why wouldn't they?

Why would they NOT want to weaken a 1st round opponent?

f*** that, you put Woll in both nights, or Murray in both nights, or hell you put in Jett Alexander in both nights, I don't give a f*** you do whatever you to do to protect Samsonov.

And that goes for Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Tavares, Reilly, Brodie, McCabe, ROR, EVERYBODY.

Tuesday WOULD be nice to get going into the playoffs, I won't lie.

But It's not more important than staying healthy, these are glorified pre season games they mean NOTHING

You can't put anyone on IR and the league is cracking down on "injuries^ that don't exist.

The Leafs can't just sit players and call up Marlies. There is a cap and thwy are right up against it

 

[Suntouchable13]

You can't put anyone on IR and the league is cracking down on "injuries^ that don't exist.

The Leafs can't just sit players and call up Marlies. There is a cap and thwy are right up against it

The salary cap is the worst. Get rid of it.

 

[stats1]

It really is too bad we couldn’t just bring up the Marlies. Like someone else said, you don’t want to show TB anything before the playoffs. Let them go through game studies. I would hate for them to gain valuable set play formations and information in a meaningless game. I wasn’t even going to watch a lot until I found out we’re putting in an Amateur tonight. Hopefully he shocks the world and gets a shut out lol

 

[stats1]

By the way I just want to say a big F U to Bettman and these stupid mundane rules on the cap… it’s embarrassing as a league that you have teams that have to sign ATO’s… just total lack of class for a league that wishes it was even close to popularity as the NBA or even MLB. It likes to call itself one of the major 4 leagues but it sure doesn’t act like it