Confirmed with Link: Leafs sign F Auston Matthews to extension (4 years, $13.25M AAV)

[francis246]

So I'm not sure what salary model you use but evolving hockey has Pastrnak valued just above what he signed for and Marner at more than 1mm above what he is paid.
You guys love to drop this crap with no reference at all other than a finger in the air.
I particulary love the line from someone else that had Marner overpaid by 2mm.
You guys are really going to love his new contract next year

I find it crazy that simplistic versions of these models are available online and people don’t think organizations and agents aren’t using complex versions of these models to determine player value. You just have to laugh.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Unfortunately it’s all intertwined especially for a market like the leafs. Might be time to realize that.

WTF does the MLS have to do with our cup chances this upcoming season?

 

[Dekes For Days]

I find it crazy that simplistic versions of these models are available online and people don’t think organizations and agents aren’t using complex versions of these models to determine player value. You just have to laugh.

You mean teams and agents don't just look exclusively at peak raw points and team accomplishments with zero context to determine individual player value?

 

[Peasy]

Because it’s only possible to do a certain way, the Senators burned one year of Sanderson’s contract. Also a contract like that screams the player might be nervous and took security over playing out the year.

Who’s to say Lou and Dubas didn’t try. Pretty sure our 3 guys were confident enough in their abilities to perform and unwilling to sign the year before.



Unfortunately it’s all intertwined especially for a market like the leafs. Might be time to realize that.

Lou, the guy who was notorious for saying "if you have time use it." didn't hear one mention of him ever considering discussing a extension for nylander.

How do you explain stutzle contract, Tkachuk? Poor cop out with the Sanderson excuse lmao. Makes no difference really. Look around the league. Teams sign young players that haven't broken out to big contracts all the time. Jack Hughes. Didn't even break 50 points before getting 8x8 and now it is probably the biggest steal in the league. Because their gm recognized that there was a high probability that he was nearing a breakout and acted fast.

Counter how the jack Hughes contract played out to how the zegras one is playing out now. Zegras could have signed last summer, the ducks didn't get it done, and now it looks like he wants a bridge deal leading into a big contract after the cap raises. Pretty much exactly what our stars did. Ducks will likely be kicking themselves in the future for not trying to lock him down longterm last summer.

The ofc Matthews and Marner, it's been beaten like a dead horse. There have been reported values during that summer they could sign for 8 year deals. Dubas decided he didn't want that, and insisted that nylander has to be signed first because he's the one without a contact. And again we see how that all played out...

Crazy people are still burying their heads in the sand like dubas has never made a mistake his entire time here.

 

[Mess]

if you think 8.05m on a 77 game sample size is great, low offensive metrics, idk what to tell you. That deal is more risky than any deal that the leafs have signed. Ottawa has to do that, otherwise they will not get players to stay there.

If Leafs GMs don't bend over and give Leafs top players top $ on short-term deals, otherwise they will not get players to stay here.

Do you believe if Treliving offered Matthews $12.7 mil (making him the highest paid player in the game) and 8 year term deal that Matthews would sign that to stay?

Knowing Matthews agreed only to 4 years at $13.25 mil it seems Leafs are facing the same problem Ottawa is. IMO

Leaf players only agree to stay in Toronto if they're among the highest paid players in the game, and short-term deals allow them to continue to get raises on top of already top market prices.

 

[francis246]

Lou, the guy who was notorious for saying "if you have time use it." didn't hear one mention of him ever considering discussing a extension for nylander.

How do you explain stutzle contract, Tkachuk? Poor cop out with the Sanderson excuse lmao. Makes no difference really. Look around the league. Teams sign young players that haven't broken out to big contracts all the time. Jack Hughes. Didn't even break 50 points before getting 8x8 and now it is probably the biggest steal in the league. Because their gm recognized that there was a high probability that he was nearing a breakout and acted fast.

The ofc Matthews and Marner, it's been beaten like a dead horse. There have been reported values during that summer they could sign for 8 year deals. Dubas decided he didn't want that, and insisted that nylander has to be signed first because he's the one without a contact. And again we see how that all played out...

Crazy people are still burying their heads in the sand like dubas has never made a mistake his entire time here.

You can find online multiple sources of our players flat out refusing to sign extensions the year before. The only one that’s debatable is Nylander because in the end the leafs caved and gave him what he was asking for anyways. That whole negotiation was so dumb. But it’s hard to know I don’t think the organization didn’t try, I think our players specifically planned it out.

If Leafs GMs don't bend over and give Leafs top players top $ on short-term deals, otherwise they will not get players to stay here.

Do you believe if Treliving offered Matthews $12.7 mil (making him the highest paid player in the game) and 8 year term deal that Matthews would sign that to stay?

Knowing Matthews agreed only to 4 years at $13.25 mil it seems Leafs are facing the same problem Ottawa is. IMO

Leaf players only agree to stay in Toronto if they're among the highest paid players in the game, and short-term deals allow them to continue to get raises on top of already top market prices.

No Mess because it’s not the same thing. It’s not that Matthews wants to leave. He wants to maximize career earnings, that’s why he’s taking short term deals. Matthews understands by doing mid term deals he’ll make the most amount of money. It’s not the same situation at all.

 

[francis246]

WTF does the MLS have to do with our cup chances this upcoming season?

It’s not MLS per say and I love how you take MLS out of everything I said. It has to do with generating league revenue, cap system and being a progressive league. Our cap issues are two fold, we had a rookie GM who got overzealous and mishandled and we also have a cap system that is not balanced and other markets have more of an advantage than others. For example everyone loves Tampa’s salary structure but a part of the reason they can have that structure is no state tax, which helps players earn more even if they take less than market value. That in turn helps Tampa be competive. The leafs being a strong financial team should be able to use that to their advantage but the cap system limits that. That has no doubt had an affect on our chances at winning a cup. Other leagues are more progressive with their cap system, there is flexibility which allows the best players to play on teams with strong financial backing and it not affecting them so much. The leafs should have as much power as the lakers for example do in the NBA or be able to spend into a luxury tax if ownership is willing. All these little things make the league more compelling and drive up revenue which would allow teams to pay players more and not worry about it affecting their team make up.

 

[francis246]

You mean teams and agents don't just look exclusively at peak raw points and team accomplishments with zero context to determine individual player value?

Hahaha precisely! Apparently player performance is the only metric that determines or *should determine salary. What do I know anyways!?

 

[Gary Nylund]

It’s not MLS per say and I love how you take MLS out of everything I said. It has to do with generating league revenue, cap system and being a progressive league. Our cap issues are two fold, we had a rookie GM who got overzealous and mishandled and we also have a cap system that is not balanced and other markets have more of an advantage than others. For example everyone loves Tampa’s salary structure but a part of the reason they can have that structure is no state tax, which helps players earn more even if they take less than market value. That in turn helps Tampa be competive. The leafs being a strong financial team should be able to use that to their advantage but the cap system limits that. That has no doubt had an affect on our chances at winning a cup. Other leagues are more progressive with their cap system, there is flexibility which allows the best players to play on teams with strong financial backing and it not affecting them so much. The leafs should have as much power as the lakers for example do in the NBA or be able to spend into a luxury tax if ownership is willing. All these little things make the league more compelling and drive up revenue which would allow teams to pay players more and not worry about it affecting their team make up.

And I love how you brought up MLS into a discussion about Matthews' contract. You're so far out in left field, it's like you've forgotten what your thread you're in.

See the thread title, it has nothing to to with all the things I bolded in your post. Now that I think of it, I should have just bolded the entire post, that would have been easier.

Go to the main boards and start a thread about the cap system if you like, hell there might be one there already. And while you're there, I suggest you don't bring up Matthews on-ice performance. Do that and you'll probably get people telling you that you're way off topic.

 

[Stephen]

Crazy people are still burying their heads in the sand like dubas has never made a mistake his entire time here.

Dubas’ pattern as GM in Toronto was typically too much galaxy braining without the intuition and just overpaying things to make it happen in a hurry.

 

[francis246]

And I love how you brought up MLS into a discussion about Matthews' contract. You're so far out in left field, it's like you've forgotten what your thread you're in.

See the thread title, it has nothing to to with all the things I bolded in your post. Now that I think of it, I should have just bolded the entire post, that would have been easier.

Go to the main boards and start a thread about the cap system if you like, hell there might be one there already. And while you're there, I suggest you don't bring up Matthews on-ice performance. Do that and you'll probably get people telling you that you're way off topic.

not really, again as I said it's all connected. League revenue affecting our salary cap, hockey becoming less popular and not generating enough revenue to push the league salary cap up, so that people can stop bitching about how our star player matthews getting a 1. something million increase is going to negatively affect our chances of winning a cup. Pretty connected to me, you just don't seem understand that league revenue is tied to player salaries, but that's also fine LOL. Player performance is the only thing that determines salary!!!

 

[Gary Nylund]

not really, again as I said it's all connected. League revenue affecting our salary cap, hockey becoming less popular and not generating enough revenue to push the league salary cap up, so that people can stop bitching about how our star player matthews getting a 1. something million increase is going to negatively affect our chances of winning a cup. Pretty connected to me, you just don't seem understand that league revenue is tied to player salaries, but that's also fine LOL. Player performance is the only thing that determines salary!!!

Hockey's becoming less popular, that's why Matthews deserves 13.5m on a 5 year deal, got it.

 

[francis246]

Hockey's becoming less popular, that's why Matthews deserves 13.5m on a 5 year deal, got it.

Yup that’s right! Exactly what I said! You got it Bud. Gold star for you! You know it’s okay to not be knowledgeable about something lol

 

[Throw More Waffles]

The argument is time.
Matthews' new deal is less cap percentage at signing than McDavid's was at the same point.
He wasn't paid more than McDavid.
He was just paid under a higher cap landscape.
This is the natural progression of contracts in the NHL. Nothing new.

People are still fully entitled to think it was too much. I would have loved for it to be more like 12.7M, but it was always going to be more than McDavid in AAV.

I mean... isn't this what we've been arguing? That the pathetic 5 year term on Matthews second contract was a joke that will result in him getting much more money than his direct recent comparables? Isn't that what we've been arguing? As all of us have been saying for 4 years... Matthews aav was fine at 8 years. It was a joke.... a f***ing JOKE... at 5 years.

I agree that it's not Treliving's fault. He simply inherited the nightmare Dubas created.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

You mean teams and agents don't just look exclusively at peak raw points and team accomplishments with zero context to determine individual player value?

Why does this NEVER go in the opposite direction?

Year after year after year after year we see players with as good or better raw points AS WELL AS better team success signing for less than our guys.

What the f*** is it about our guys that makes them "worth more" than comparable players? Because whatever the hell you think it is, it's not transfering into team playoff success. Ever.

Just "money" stats? Our star players are better at stats that don't contribute to winning when it counts? We're just unlucky that way?

The real reason is the lame nonsensical drivel we read here in defending of these contracts is entirely made up. It's no longer a small sample size. It's NOT contributing to long term success when it counts.

It's all bullshit. And I'm freaking sick of it.

 

[francis246]

I mean... isn't this what we've been arguing? That the pathetic 5 year term on Matthews second contract was a joke that will result in him getting much more money than his direct recent comparables? Isn't that what we've been arguing? As all of us have been saying for 4 years... Matthews aav was fine at 8 years. It was a joke.... a f***ing JOKE... at 5 years.

I agree that it's not Treliving's fault. He simply inherited the nightmare Dubas created.

As much as I agree our cap nightmare is a direct result of Dubas overpaying, term is almost certainly on the players. If the player isn’t going to sign 8 years what can you do? There’s no mandate that requires players to sign 8 years. I’ve said it a few times, I don’t know what we did as a fanbase to deserve this fate but unfortunately our guy is a unicorn in terms of contract structure. I think this was Matthews’ career plan all along I don’t think it would have mattered who the GM is. It’s pretty clear the only 8 year deal he was going to sign would be that retirement one at 30 or 31. Really unfortunate.

 

[leafs in five]

It's not that bad for sure. Had Matthews come in at something like 12.7 for 8 years, everyone would be happy. So instead it's 13.5 which is too high

it's 13.25 not 13.5. so 550k above the figure you say everyone would be happy with, less than the league minimum.

Why does this NEVER go in the opposite direction?

Year after year after year after year we see players with as good or better raw points AS WELL AS better team success signing for less than our guys.

What the f*** is it about our guys that makes them "worth more" than comparable players? Because whatever the hell you think it is, it's not transfering into team playoff success. Ever.

Just "money" stats? Our star players are better at stats that don't contribute to winning when it counts? We're just unlucky that way?

The real reason is the lame nonsensical drivel we read here in defending of these contracts is entirely made up. It's no longer a small sample size. It's NOT contributing to long term success when it counts.

It's all bullshit. And I'm freaking sick of it.

what if he got paid 550k less though

 

[Stamkos4life]

Why does this NEVER go in the opposite direction?

Year after year after year after year we see players with as good or better raw points AS WELL AS better team success signing for less than our guys.

What the f*** is it about our guys that makes them "worth more" than comparable players? Because whatever the hell you think it is, it's not transfering into team playoff success. Ever.

Just "money" stats? Our star players are better at stats that don't contribute to winning when it counts? We're just unlucky that way?

The real reason is the lame nonsensical drivel we read here in defending of these contracts is entirely made up. It's no longer a small sample size. It's NOT contributing to long term success when it counts.

It's all bullshit. And I'm freaking sick of it.

It's been a crazy ride the last ~4 years watching people twist themselves into a pretzel in an effort to rationalize the overpayments.

The worst part is the lack of consistency.

For one player, goals are the only thing that matters.

For another, points and assists.

For another, the last season doesn't mean much, it's all about the last few years.

The lack of self awareness is staggering.

 

[leafs in five]

love to just make shit up to be furious about

 

[Notsince67]

I have to say that I am a bit envious of Matthews. He has some serious FU skills and some serious FU money. People can choose to like him but if they don't....he probably doesnt really give a shit.
While the haters rant on, others will be tuning in and telling them to stfu while the game is on. The meager clout achieved when bitching on an off game moment is the tender mercies of those who just don't really matter

 

[Hellcat]

If someone tells you that you sound like dubas, that should inform you that your logic is flawed.

Where are you getting the bolded from? Most of your posts make very little sense but this one takes the cake.

Is that your professional assessment? I sound like Dubas?

Hey if I make little sense to you, perhaps I'm talking over your head?

I got the bolded part from you ...

You sound a lot like dubas and we all know how good he was at negotiations.

Paying matthews more than mack, pasta, ect and for far fewer years is a huge disadvantage.

If your goal is retain matthews, mission accomplished.

If you want to win the cup, this definitely was not the right move.

 

[Stephen]

It's kinda funny but not the ha-ha type of funny, another one of Ottawa's young stars Jake Sanderson signed a very respectable 8 year deal with an AAV of 8.05 what is Dorion saying to these guys that our GM's apparently can't?

The Jake Sanderson deal would be more like Toronto locking up Matthew Knies to $7 million x 8 years or something next season after a good rookie year than anything resembling the Auston Matthews contract.

Ottawa is paying front loaded money to a kid who has yet to really break out. I think partially because they didn’t want Dahlin and Seider to dictate Sanderson’s ask as an RFA next summer. And partially to lock a guy in before he starts picking up recognition around the league and starts looking around.

 

[Stephen]

I have to say that I am a bit envious of Matthews. He has some serious FU skills and some serious FU money. People can choose to like him but if they don't....he probably doesnt really give a shit.
While the haters rant on, others will be tuning in and telling them to stfu while the game is on. The meager clout achieved when bitching on an off game moment is the tender mercies of those who just don't really matter

Most regular NHLers have FU money and don’t pay the peanut gallery (us) any mind.

 

[Stamkos4life]

When it comes to the Salary Cap (which is the same for all) the Leafs sadly are forced to pay Matthews a luxuary tax penalty of $13.25 mil, while Edmonton will pay McDavid $12.5 mil and Colorado paying MacKinnon $12.6 mil and Boston for Pasta $11.25 mil.

Since Matthews has the highest Cap hit % of every player in the NHL the Leafs are at a disadvantage having to use more of their Salary Cap max, which leaves less for the supporting cast. Doing it for an elite star player who is among the best goal scorers in the NHL is easier to swallow and making an exception in one thing. but ....

Where Leafs are getting into Cap Hell is because they're doing that same for Tavares at $11 mil and Marner at $10.9 mil.. Arguing Matthews $ > Pasta is one thing but seeing Pasta put up 61 goals and 113 points for $11.25 mil and then trying to convince yourself Tavares and Marner are also worth their overpayments.

Tampa Bay star players took less and won Cups together like my Point vs Marner post proved, and Leafs overpayments = early exits as a result of Leaf players picking personal wealth over team success.

It shouldn't be a hard concept to understand.

Paying our stars more than basically every single other team puts us at a huge disadvantage.

If you chear for the Leafs because you want to see matthews become the franchise leading scorer, you should be happy.

If you chear for the Leafs because you want to see them win the cup, you shouldn't be happy.

 

[Stamkos4life]

Is that your professional assessment? I sound like Dubas?

Hey if I make little sense to you, perhaps I'm talking over your head?

I got the bolded part from you ...

Naw more likely you just have no clue what you're talking about which is made even clearer by the fact that the bolded had nothing to do with my post.