Speculation: Leafs rushed the rebuild

[seanlinden]

Honestly... it all came down to mis-managing the contract negotiations of "the big 3".

They refused to bet on William Nylander when he had a grand total of 28 goals in 103 NHL games. They waited until he duplicated his 60 point performance, and was a standout +20.

They refused to bet on Mitch Marner after putting up 61 and 69 points in his first 2 years... instead waiting for him to put up 94 alongside John Tavares. What did you think was going to happen when you swap Tyler Bozak for John Tavares??

Matthews there wasn't anything wrong with teh dollar amount neccessarily (about $1m less than McDavid), but he was 2 years short in terms of commitment. That set a bad precedent for Marner.

The reality is, that first-year of Tavares team could have, and should have, been deadly. Matthews & Marner wre on their ELCs. They created matchup nightmares with Tavares/Matthews/Kadri down the middle. They had excellent depth on the wings with Kapanen, Johnsson, Hyman, Brown, Nylander, & Marleau.

At that point is where things kind of went downhill. Not having locked up Marner & Matthews earlier meant that they had to trade a 1st to ditch Marleau (turned out to be Seth Jarvis, IIRC). The Kadri trade was a massive flop. Then throw in COVID, and none of the future cap space that was supposed to open up did.

 

[Daisy Jane]

At some point you have to ask - did we get 3 for 3 statistical anomalies who were not going to co-operate at all in negotiations compared to league average or did the way we did business affect things. Because other teams have at least 1 contract where a player takes a discount. Contrary to popular opinion Lou was as bad as Dubas. Him pinching pennies with bonuses on Matthews ELC probably made Matthews think he's a moron. I would have less grace towards my employer if they did stupid shit like that too. with better management that had the courage to stick to their original plan before bitching out this team probably makes the semi finals regularly right now.

Trade JVR at the deadline
Trade Bozak
Keep Kadri
Don't sign Tavares
Don't trade 2 2nds for Boyle
Keep prospects.
Sign the big 3 to reasonable deals.

Imagine a top 9 containing Matthews Marner Nylander Kadri Joshua Verhaeghe Knies Domi.

Plus the extra cap space to get a 1d when the rebuild is complete and a good goalie.

he didn't pinch with Matthews. (he did with Marner). this is where i have to say maybe this is a male thing vs a female thing I know for myself I've taken less money to be at a job that i love, or turned down advancement because i was really happy where i was. sometimes it backfired because the management wasn't all it was cracked up to be, but at the end of the day nothing is perfect . i know if it were me. (and i am Matthews/Marner/Nylander). these guys were revered. here (and i mean they still are, even marner once all the dumbness dies down). imagine how much more love they would have had they even taken a 10% off. but i mean yeah. Marner doesn't get tier 2 bonuses and we see what happens. Nylander wants to be paid as high as Matthews. they only cared about themselves. I don't think they ever once cared about the team overall. not like those in Chicago/Pittsburgh etc.

I didn't really agree with a lot of what Lou did either however. this & this

So you trade players for picks, for 2-3 years, so you don’t make the playoffs. Take on bad contracts. Stuff the chests with D and G prospects.

Spending big money signing UFAs is something you only think about as a final piece. Not the first piece.

Slow rebuilds, from the net out, is where the money is.

i think you need to cycle back to the very first press conferences that Shanahan, Lou and Babcock had. they did not want to have the team mired in being bottom feeders and losing. (i think a bit finger point to Buffalo who still hasn't made the playoffs, and Edmonton who at the time still didn't have it together) I think the plan originally was try to be competitive and miss but not be like top 1-2-3 in the draft but mid say 15 etc, just knocking on the playoffs etc. and (i know people said it above) that we "signed the loveable losers" - but again remember

Justin Williams and "those won cups" were not signing here. we were still fresh of the gong show that was Randy Carlyle's last year, it looked like were were gonna be butt awful for years and as much as we flung money at people those who still wanted to win. were not coming here. but they wanted to kind of erase that era of utter stink from the team and the city.

again - what "hurt" the team at the end of the day - as that they got too good, too fast and I don't think anyone was ready for it.and i said it then, and I'll stand by what I said. I agree with their decision not to have the team mired in constant bottom basement dwelling. that does no one any good. I don't agree with some of the moves that they made but let's be realistic. no one in the NHL has a perfect track record.

I do feel that as an organization the Leafs were so disgusted (we all were) about the drama with that team in 2013-2014, that's when all PR tour stuff took precidence. and i do think it impacts on who they target as Free Agents. Perry has drama so they avoid that and go with whomever who is a bit more squeaky clean but less winning pedigree. that shouldn't matter and I think they need someone to smack ALL of them to be like it's okay if there is a bit of dirt under the nails.

I personally feel that the players (Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Rielly) need to have a serious Come to Jesus moment and decide what's more important to them. if it's money then I say trade them. and enjoy them putting up mucho points else where and then we try again. if it's about winning here in Toronto then they really have to start showing up in the playoffs. they have to commit to it. I personally see that it's there (not winning the cup etc, but at least making it to the finals? if they actually put their mind to it? yeah i believe it. it's that they won't for whatever reason. and I don't think any "build from the net out" strat is going to change that our #1 pick, #4 pick #5 vet pick, and #9 pick won't get it together when it matters most. nor (imo blaming JT - not saying he's innocent but it's not all his fault either like a lot of people make it sound like)

 

[Larcos_Unal]

Honestly... it all came down to mis-managing the contract negotiations of "the big 3".

They refused to bet on William Nylander when he had a grand total of 28 goals in 103 NHL games. They waited until he duplicated his 60 point performance, and was a standout +20.

They refused to bet on Mitch Marner after putting up 61 and 69 points in his first 2 years... instead waiting for him to put up 94 alongside John Tavares. What did you think was going to happen when you swap Tyler Bozak for John Tavares??

Matthews there wasn't anything wrong with teh dollar amount neccessarily (about $1m less than McDavid), but he was 2 years short in terms of commitment. That set a bad precedent for Marner.

The reality is, that first-year of Tavares team could have, and should have, been deadly. Matthews & Marner wre on their ELCs. They created matchup nightmares with Tavares/Matthews/Kadri down the middle. They had excellent depth on the wings with Kapanen, Johnsson, Hyman, Brown, Nylander, & Marleau.

At that point is where things kind of went downhill. Not having locked up Marner & Matthews earlier meant that they had to trade a 1st to ditch Marleau (turned out to be Seth Jarvis, IIRC). The Kadri trade was a massive flop. Then throw in COVID, and none of the future cap space that was supposed to open up did.

In an alternate reality, we let Lou negotiate those 1st round of contracts coming out of the ELCs. I assure you, term and dollars would have looked very, very different.

 

[seanlinden]

In an alternate reality, we let Lou negotiate those 1st round of contracts coming out of the ELCs. I assure you, term and dollars would have looked very, very different.

Yeah.... or even just do it right away...

William Nylander was first up, eligible to sign in Summer 2017... that year he was tied for 3rd on the team in scoring with Kadri & Marner. The highest paid guys on the team were JvR ($4.25m), Bozak ($4.2m) and Kadri ($4.5m). I refuse to believe that if you went to Nylander and said I'm going to make you the highest paid player on the team (after 1 good year) at $5.5m, but I want a 6 or 7 year deal, he says no.

Same goes for Mitch Marner. Eligible to be signed in Summer 2018. The year after Draisaitl signed his $8.5m deal and looked to be terrible as he didn't really improve... go to Marner and say "we want you at $8m X 8 years... despite a career high of 62 points, he really says no???


Yet, look at how differently that could have turned out. $4.5m in extra space that the Leafs could have spent, and they'd probably still be under those contracts.

 

[ruaware41]

i believe i read where Lou wasn't a fan of bonuses for individual accomplishments but it's not like i remember hearing there was any bad feeling over his elc negotiations but i'm sure Mathews and his people liked dealing with Dumbass much better since he just slid a blank contract over to him to fill out when he had zero leverage as a rfa

if there was bad feelings about it I’m sure they wouldn’t have publicly expressed it but if you put yourself in Matthews shoes it’s easy to see how the Leafs would lose future grace from him pinching pennies on something like that which doesn’t affect cap

 

[notbias]

In an alternate reality, we let Lou negotiate those 1st round of contracts coming out of the ELCs. I assure you, term and dollars would have looked very, very different.

Judging by the Horvat fiasco and him offering Tavares more, not sure it does.

 

[ruaware41]

he didn't pinch with Matthews. (he did with Marner). this is where i have to say maybe this is a male thing vs a female thing I know for myself I've taken less money to be at a job that i love, or turned down advancement because i was really happy where i was. sometimes it backfired because the management wasn't all it was cracked up to be, but at the end of the day nothing is perfect . i know if it were me. (and i am Matthews/Marner/Nylander). these guys were revered. here (and i mean they still are, even marner once all the dumbness dies down). imagine how much more love they would have had they even taken a 10% off. but i mean yeah. Marner doesn't get tier 2 bonuses and we see what happens. Nylander wants to be paid as high as Matthews. they only cared about themselves. I don't think they ever once cared about the team overall. not like those in Chicago/Pittsburgh etc.

I didn't really agree with a lot of what Lou did either however. this & this




i think you need to cycle back to the very first press conferences that Shanahan, Lou and Babcock had. they did not want to have the team mired in being bottom feeders and losing. (i think a bit finger point to Buffalo who still hasn't made the playoffs, and Edmonton who at the time still didn't have it together) I think the plan originally was try to be competitive and miss but not be like top 1-2-3 in the draft but mid say 15 etc, just knocking on the playoffs etc. and (i know people said it above) that we "signed the loveable losers" - but again remember

Justin Williams and "those won cups" were not signing here. we were still fresh of the gong show that was Randy Carlyle's last year, it looked like were were gonna be butt awful for years and as much as we flung money at people those who still wanted to win. were not coming here. but they wanted to kind of erase that era of utter stink from the team and the city.

again - what "hurt" the team at the end of the day - as that they got too good, too fast and I don't think anyone was ready for it.and i said it then, and I'll stand by what I said. I agree with their decision not to have the team mired in constant bottom basement dwelling. that does no one any good. I don't agree with some of the moves that they made but let's be realistic. no one in the NHL has a perfect track record.

I do feel that as an organization the Leafs were so disgusted (we all were) about the drama with that team in 2013-2014, that's when all PR tour stuff took precidence. and i do think it impacts on who they target as Free Agents. Perry has drama so they avoid that and go with whomever who is a bit more squeaky clean but less winning pedigree. that shouldn't matter and I think they need someone to smack ALL of them to be like it's okay if there is a bit of dirt under the nails.

I personally feel that the players (Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Rielly) need to have a serious Come to Jesus moment and decide what's more important to them. if it's money then I say trade them. and enjoy them putting up mucho points else where and then we try again. if it's about winning here in Toronto then they really have to start showing up in the playoffs. they have to commit to it. I personally see that it's there (not winning the cup etc, but at least making it to the finals? if they actually put their mind to it? yeah i believe it. it's that they won't for whatever reason. and I don't think any "build from the net out" strat is going to change that our #1 pick, #4 pick #5 vet pick, and #9 pick won't get it together when it matters most. nor (imo blaming JT - not saying he's innocent but it's not all his fault either like a lot of people make it sound like)

ik what you mean about taking less money for some other reason. whether it’s loving the job or for work life balance. I think the difference is your employer paying you less has a financial impact on the employer. Even if it doesn’t then they might have to pay more to everyone else in similar or senior positions and it can have an impact. But in this case it was an example of a hardass coming in and pinching pennies on something the team historically hasn’t pinched pennies on, and on something where there is no benefit to the organization in pinching pennies. It was just to be a hardass for no good reason. I understand that eventually Lou had to cave but if you put yourself in Matthews shoes and are like okay this organization is showing me no grace whatsoever even though them not giving me the bonuses doesn’t benefit them, why should I show them any grace when the ball is more in my court?

I’m not saying they would have taken a discount if this situation wasn’t escalated for no reason but strategically it just seemed like it could only cause something negative and just reeked of unnecessary power tripping

 

[darrylsittler27]

Here is the irony of the Leafs wanting their "family friendly team" of lovable losers.

Oilers took Hyman. Oilers picked up both Kane and Perry for nothing. Both are out of favour and the Leafs dressing room and squeaky clean image can't have that, regardless of if they are Gamers or not.

So, Leafs kept the wrong DNA and they could have had a far more playoff driven forward group for cheap. No assets lost.

Oilers are a game away from the Cup Finals. A team that was far behind the Leafs just three seasons ago.

The Leafs couldn't afford Hyman but want to sign Bert with no backend...Pathetic.

 

[ACC1224]

The Leafs couldn't afford Hyman but want to sign Bert with no backend...Pathetic.

They could have afforded Hyman.

 

[rocketman588]

They could have afforded Hyman.

Yepppp

He probably stays for 8x3.75 considering he initially signed an 8x4 for Edmonton. We made a decision to keep Kerfoot over him. Same with McCann. I don't know if we could have worked the expansion protection to keep him but he was more valuable then both Kerfoot and Holl.

Even if Hyman is only potting 20-25 a year while doing the dirty work for Matthews and Marner 3.75 is still worth it. Then we suddenly become mega deep if we still would have signed Bunting that year as well

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Any team that can’t find a spot for Hyman is a loser organization

 

[ACC1224]

Yepppp

He probably stays for 8x3.75 considering he initially signed an 8x4 for Edmonton. We made a decision to keep Kerfoot over him. Same with McCann. I don't know if we could have worked the expansion protection to keep him but he was more valuable then both Kerfoot and Holl.

Even if Hyman is only potting 20-25 a year while doing the dirty work for Matthews and Marner 3.75 is still worth it. Then we suddenly become mega deep if we still would have signed Bunting that year as well

I get that they were concerned about his injury history. As I recall most here seemed to be happy they let him go then sign him for 8 years.

 

[rocketman588]

I get that they were concerned about his injury history. As I recall most here seemed to be happy they let him go then sign him for 8 years.

The 6-8 year of that will still probably be rough but in the short term he's still significantly better then Kerfoot.

Also allegedly telling Domi's agent that we weren't interested along with telling Perry to stuff it all weird moves

 

[BayStBullies]

Yepppp

He probably stays for 8x3.75 considering he initially signed an 8x4 for Edmonton. We made a decision to keep Kerfoot over him. Same with McCann. I don't know if we could have worked the expansion protection to keep him but he was more valuable then both Kerfoot and Holl.

Even if Hyman is only potting 20-25 a year while doing the dirty work for Matthews and Marner 3.75 is still worth it. Then we suddenly become mega deep if we still would have signed Bunting that year as well

I'd also like people to stop revising history who pretend like many of us didn't immediately call it out as a mistake at that time. It was obvious to plenty of us that Hyman was on a short list to never lose.

 

[4thline]

If we want to play time machine to not rush things the targets are draft day 2015 and 2016.

Step 1: 2015- overrule Hunter on the Marner pick and revisit the trade back with Columbus 4 for 8 + 34+ 68
Having done this we don't trade back from 24 since we already added two picks

Step 2: 2016- don't trade for Andersen, trade JVR before his protection kicks in

Step 3: don't draft like ass

2015: 24/34/65/68
2016: 30/31/57/62/72
2017: Better than 17 (no Andersen and JVR)/ 50/57
+ additional pick somewhere from JVR trade

Plus all the late round flyers...

Should have been enough to add another 2-4 top 6 forwards/ top 4 d, with maybe one of them being a star type. The hole we've never over come is barring Woll staying healthy/consistent and/or Liljegren taking a big step this year we drafted precisely zero impact pieces outside of the top 4 from 2015-2017.

 

[Leafsfan74]

The Leafs couldn't afford Hyman but want to sign Bert with no backend...Pathetic.

They couldn't afford Hyman because of the core. It's that simple. They needed to rid themselves of a contract or two but they didn't.

This team won't win next year either. It will confirm the worst run franchise in sports. A blue ribbon for those businesses who thrive on mediocrity.

 

[ACC1224]

They couldn't afford Hyman because of the core. It's that simple. They needed to rid themselves of a contract or two but they didn't.

This team won't win next year either. It will confirm the worst run franchise in sports. A blue ribbon for those businesses who thrive on mediocrity.

Not true at all.

Lots of info and impressions here.

Rumor: - Zach Hyman is signing in Edmonton - Done deal per James Mirtle

forums.hfboards.com

 

[Aashir]

Honestly... it all came down to mis-managing the contract negotiations of "the big 3".

They refused to bet on William Nylander when he had a grand total of 28 goals in 103 NHL games. They waited until he duplicated his 60 point performance, and was a standout +20.

They refused to bet on Mitch Marner after putting up 61 and 69 points in his first 2 years... instead waiting for him to put up 94 alongside John Tavares. What did you think was going to happen when you swap Tyler Bozak for John Tavares??

Matthews there wasn't anything wrong with teh dollar amount neccessarily (about $1m less than McDavid), but he was 2 years short in terms of commitment. That set a bad precedent for Marner.

The reality is, that first-year of Tavares team could have, and should have, been deadly. Matthews & Marner wre on their ELCs. They created matchup nightmares with Tavares/Matthews/Kadri down the middle. They had excellent depth on the wings with Kapanen, Johnsson, Hyman, Brown, Nylander, & Marleau.

At that point is where things kind of went downhill. Not having locked up Marner & Matthews earlier meant that they had to trade a 1st to ditch Marleau (turned out to be Seth Jarvis, IIRC). The Kadri trade was a massive flop. Then throw in COVID, and none of the future cap space that was supposed to open up did.

Player A
PPG finishes: 3rd, 1st
1X Ross
1X Hart
1X Lindsay
1X First-team

Player B
PPG finishes: T-19, T-14
1X Calder

So I disagree with 11.634x7 even being fair. Eichel’s 10x8 was what should’ve been targeted, maybe 10.5x8.

Betting on Marner and Nylander wouldve been risky without hindsight, but it’s less unprecedented than the contract we gave him. J.Hughes, Suzuki and Caufield all were bet on and lived up to it, we could’ve done the same.

This ideas been beaten to death, but dubas and Lou a bit in not giving nylander an early offer really f***ed all the contracts.

We tried signing nylander after his elc ran up and he sat and was overpaid that season.
We tried signing Marner after his elc ran up and gave him a contract that no one in the league considers a comparable
We tried signing Matthews in season and overpaid him maybe the most of the three

 

[darrylsittler27]

Player A
PPG finishes: 3rd, 1st
1X Ross
1X Hart
1X Lindsay
1X First-team

Player B
PPG finishes: T-19, T-14
1X Calder

So I disagree with 11.634x7 even being fair. Eichel’s 10x8 was what should’ve been targeted, maybe 10.5x8.

Betting on Marner and Nylander wouldve been risky without hindsight, but it’s less unprecedented than the contract we gave him. J.Hughes, Suzuki and Caufield all were bet on and lived up to it, we could’ve done the same.

This ideas been beaten to death, but dubas and Lou a bit in not giving nylander an early offer really f***ed all the contracts.

We tried signing nylander after his elc ran up and he sat and was overpaid that season.
We tried signing Marner after his elc ran up and gave him a contract that no one in the league considers a comparable
We tried signing Matthews in season and overpaid him maybe the most of the three

They are about to overpay Bert as he goes into decline.

 

[Aashir]

They are about to overpay Bert as he goes into decline.

tbh as long as he is good for the next 3-4 years its fine

our "contention" period left is 4 years, the matthews contract. Everything should be decided based off of contending for those 4 years. Matthews will be over 30 and past his total prime as a player, won't be useless or anything near that, but will probably take a step back from now. We need to capatalize now

I wonder what looking at an 5-7 year deal with domi is like, if it is sub 4 i'd do it because who gives af 4+ years down the line when we can have him for cheap in the important years. By 4 years from now I either expect us to have done something notable (hint hint) and retain matthews or be rebuilding.

It's like what edmonton has with hyman, although to a lesser extent. Hyman has given them 2-3+ million in value years 1-3 so who gives af if he falls off in years 5-7. They can get their cup and that's all that matters

 

[Daisy Jane]

. But in this case it was an example of a hardass coming in and pinching pennies on something the team historically hasn’t pinched pennies on, and on something where there is no benefit to the organization in pinching pennies.

here is the thing. the organization never did it - but Lou almost always did. so that was consistent and honestly. the way that i look at it, you're in Toronto. you are bleating over some bonuses when some guy comes to town says he likes soups, and like 2 days later he gets a marketing deal with a soup company? making money here is not the issue. to me they just feel more about being all about themselves than the team.

like this season they were all so concerned about trying to get Matthews#70, and all these other points/accolades they didn't stop and think about "okay let's screw 70 goals, and let's lock down our systems to be ready for the playoffs." I get it we're not in the room etc etc, but to me it rings false when Matthews is like "all i care about is winning" but he (from what we were able to see) stopped the team (or said it via interview) that they should stop doing it, we need to focus on more important things.


people whinge about them being laughingstocks (who cares even when we were good people laughed at the team) my main concern is that this team doesn't give OTHER teams the respect they deserve. they honestly think they can play however they want for 40 minutes and then turn it on and try out blow them out of the water.

I think Lou was just trying to have everyone relatively be equal. and not have bonus performance distract from actual team work. but the thing here is so many people were like LOL Lou Dinosaur that they focused on the "just give them their money" aspect, vs. what Lou was trying to establish. [this isn't to say i agree with ALL of Lou's decisions] but again - considering that we were exiting the gong-showiest of gong shows i understand the heavy handeness of trying to be Team First.

 

[Byron Bitz]

The Tavares signing put the Leafs in a great position, it allowed them to trade their second line Center and get great assets back to surround a good core with good players. Problem is Dubas didn’t get the right assets back, he got good value but Barrie and Kerfoot were not the right fit with this team.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

The Tavares signing put the Leafs in a great position

Are you even serious ?

We have 3 solid forwards and your UFA splurge is for another forward ? And the splurge is before you lock up the core ?

Get outta heeeeeere.

 

[Byron Bitz]

Are you even serious ?

We have 3 solid forwards and your UFA splurge is for another forward ? And the splurge is before you lock up the core ?

Get outta heeeeeere.

Yes I’m serious, the problem was not the Tavares signing, it’s that they didn’t make the right moves after the signing, he is the second most productive UFA signing of the entire cap era.

 

[Maple Leaf]

You need to bhild from the net out not winger in you know what I mean