Line Combos: Leafs roster [Before] & [After] and work in progress

[Dekes For Days]

In your first paragraph, thank you for agreeing with me that they abandoned the rebuild.

Wasn't agreeing exactly. You said they abandoned the rebuild when they signed Tavares, Nylander and Marner. That's incorrect. They abandoned the rebuild long before that.

Having Matthews and Kadri as your number 1 and 2 centers during a rebuild is pretty darn good!

As we already discussed, we weren't in a rebuild, and that is not a very good 1-2 punch for a team looking to compete in the playoffs. Especially when Kadri gets suspended. Matthews-Tavares is much, much better. We also had nothing beyond that. Gauthier was pretty much our only other center or legitimate center prospect in the entire organization. And Kadri wasn't going to be cheap forever.

To me, if you give in to one guy, it’s almost if not totally impossible to not give in to the next ones.

He didn't "give in" to Nylander though. He held firm at a price that was reasonable and worked for the team, and refused to go past it - forcing Nylander to sit for half a season and potentially more if Nylander didn't accept. If anything, it would have scared the other RFAs, but it didn't, because Nylander wasn't really relevant to their negotiations - completely different level of players. Also, this cutthroat mind game mentality is so TV show drama. That's not how things work in the real world.

But to end up with Thornton and Simmonds in your bottom six, not to mention Thornton also playing on PP1, should also tell you that you can’t nickel and dime to build your bottom six.

Whether or not you agree with those choices, you're largely naming things done out of choice, not necessity. The complaints about these two are grossly exaggerated, but even if you think they didn't work out like you wanted, it's better for that to happen with cheap, short-term depth than overpaid depth that become long-term anchors.

You need to be able to spend more than $1 million on at least a few of them

We had four bottom six players making more than 1 million last year, and Spezza also probably could have easily gotten that if he wanted.

not to mention having some also coming up in the pipeline

I mean this is the biggest thing. Thankfully we have some coming up soon, but the last couple years were made especially hard by our drafting sucking during the Lou era. ELC players are one of the best sources of value exceeding cap hit.

 

[Zybalto]

Great breakdown, and I'd likely agree that we should stick with the pairings, but it should be noted that these results may be impacted by these pairings largely representing different points of development for Matthews/Marner/Nylander.

....and also some slight regression for Tavares no doubt over the last while.

I think the most important thing for the team to do right now is to keep "tinkering around the edges" as it hasnt been the forward stars who have been the problem in the playoffs so far. That was pretty much the difference between the "great regular season team ever" TB getting swept in the first round and the team that has won back to back titles. Maybe the moves made this off-season will be a difference?

 

[francis246]

....and also some slight regression for Tavares no doubt over the last while.

I think the most important thing for the team to do right now is to keep "tinkering around the edges" as it hasnt been the forward stars who have been the problem in the playoffs so far. That was pretty much the difference between the "great regular season team ever" TB getting swept in the first round and the team that has won back to back titles. Maybe the moves made this off-season will be a difference?

where has the Tavares regression talk come from? He's literally been a point a game player since he's gotten to the leafs and has not stopped producing at that rate. If we are being honest, he had brutal puck luck to start this season and he finished really strong. If anything I'd expect his production and goal scoring to increase.

 

[jaric1862]

Only concern I have with this team is the same conern I have a few years ago. The defence is too small and is likely going to get cycled.

 

[Captain Crunch]

Wasn't agreeing exactly. You said they abandoned the rebuild when they signed Tavares, Nylander and Marner. That's incorrect. They abandoned the rebuild long before that.

As we already discussed, we weren't in a rebuild, and that is not a very good 1-2 punch for a team looking to compete in the playoffs. Especially when Kadri gets suspended. Matthews-Tavares is much, much better. We also had nothing beyond that. Gauthier was pretty much our only other center or legitimate center prospect in the entire organization. And Kadri wasn't going to be cheap forever.

He didn't "give in" to Nylander though. He held firm at a price that was reasonable and worked for the team, and refused to go past it - forcing Nylander to sit for half a season and potentially more if Nylander didn't accept. If anything, it would have scared the other RFAs, but it didn't, because Nylander wasn't really relevant to their negotiations - completely different level of players. Also, this cutthroat mind game mentality is so TV show drama. That's not how things work in the real world.

Whether or not you agree with those choices, you're largely naming things done out of choice, not necessity. The complaints about these two are grossly exaggerated, but even if you think they didn't work out like you wanted, it's better for that to happen with cheap, short-term depth than overpaid depth that become long-term anchors.

We had four bottom six players making more than 1 million last year, and Spezza also probably could have easily gotten that if he wanted.

I mean this is the biggest thing. Thankfully we have some coming up soon, but the last couple years were made especially hard by our drafting sucking during the Lou era. ELC players are one of the best sources of value exceeding cap hit.

So in your 1st paragraph you’re saying they only went two years into their rebuild. No wonder they’re in the shape they’re in.
Two consecutive years of 32 goals, followed by a somewhat down season with only 16 goals isn’t too bad for a #2 center. Totally agree about his stupidity in the playoffs. And if you’re going to pay two centers $22 million, then you absolutely cannot pay two wingers $18 million, especially when one of them is getting $11 million.
This team is top heavy. It is not built properly. I know that’s just my opinion, but I’m still waiting for Dubas to prove me wrong.
As for the rest, we will have to agree to disagree.
I may be in the minority, but I refuse to get my hopes up on this team based on how they do in the regular season. That has proven to show absolutely nothing. Unfortunately, Dubas (and some of the players) has put this team into the unenviable position of not having a successful season until they win a few rounds in the playoffs (in other words, when it really matters)!

 

[ShaneFalco]

where has the Tavares regression talk come from? He's literally been a point a game player since he's gotten to the leafs and has not stopped producing at that rate. If we are being honest, he had brutal puck luck to start this season and he finished really strong. If anything I'd expect his production and goal scoring to increase.

Yeah I don't get that either. He's been great for us and has had his tough spots like every player

 

[hotpaws]

where has the Tavares regression talk come from? He's literally been a point a game player since he's gotten to the leafs and has not stopped producing at that rate. If we are being honest, he had brutal puck luck to start this season and he finished really strong. If anything I'd expect his production and goal scoring to increase.

his regression has come from people watching him play and not making endless excuses for him

he had a career 1st season with us due to Mitch carrying him and since MM went to AM's line it's been one excuses after another for JT's meh play

-give birth to his first child , new father something something
-broke his finger
-gave birth to his second child , young father etc
-his line mates let him down
-entire team let him down
-coach doesn't use him properly
-bad luck for the last 2 yrs

scorings up league wide , JT's scorings down but he isn't regressing it's just (pick an excuse)

 

[Dekes For Days]

So in your 1st paragraph you’re saying they only went two years into their rebuild.

I mean, we were in the rebuilding phase (whether we wanted to be or not) for much more than that. Drafting Matthews and Marner accelerated the rebuild considerably though. It kind of forces you to.

And if you’re going to pay two centers $22 million, then you absolutely cannot pay two wingers $18 million.

I know people have convinced themselves of this, but there's really no reason you can't. They are entirely capable of collectively providing more impact over the lengths of their contracts than most teams spend 40m on. We've managed to build a very good team around those 4 players, even in a pandemic flat cap world.

 

[Racer88]

Seeing as Tavares was injured and Matthews/Marner were probably the best combo in the series, "they" should probably be directed at some other folks on the team no?

Without checking, a 4-1 goal differential over the last 3 playoffs is probably the best of any first line pairing in the league. Why blame them?

Yes Tavares was injured but Marner was awful, in fact the worst he has been since he became a Leafs and Matthews did nothing worthy of an almost 12 million dollar player……those two don’t get the excuse in year 5 of playoff failures that they almost scored but was just unlucky

 

[Stonehands1990]

his regression has come from people watching him play and not making endless excuses for him

he had a career 1st season with us due to Mitch carrying him and since MM went to AM's line it's been one excuses after another for JT's meh play

-give birth to his first child , new father something something
-broke his finger
-gave birth to his second child , young father etc
-bad luck
-his line mates let him down
-entire team let him down
-coach doesn't use him properly
-bad luck for the last 2 yrs

scorings up league wide but JT's scorings down but he isn't regressing it's just (pick an excuses)

He basically has to be sheltered and carried by Nylander at this point. He’s a 1B/2A centreman. We’re getting hosed on that 11.0 AAV
Kadri was ripping 30 goals and playing McDavid for 4.5

 

[hotpaws]

I mean, we were in the rebuilding phase (whether we wanted to be or not) for much more than that. Drafting Matthews and Marner accelerated the rebuild considerably though. It kind of forces you to.

I know people have convinced themselves of this, but there's really no reason you can't. They are entirely capable of collectively providing more impact over the lengths of their contracts than most teams spend 40m on. We've managed to build a very good team around those 4 players, even in a pandemic flat cap world.

if they were actually a very good team they would have won at least one series by now instead of just winning expected series which an extremely small group of our fans care about

 

[Captain Crunch]

I mean, we were in the rebuilding phase (whether we wanted to be or not) for much more than that. Drafting Matthews and Marner accelerated the rebuild considerably though. It kind of forces you to.

I know people have convinced themselves of this, but there's really no reason you can't. They are entirely capable of collectively providing more impact over the lengths of their contracts than most teams spend 40m on. We've managed to build a very good team around those 4 players, even in a pandemic flat cap world.

We have built a pretty good regular season team. As we’ve seen *4 of the last *5 years, the playoffs are on a totally different level. And something is definitely wrong/missing from this team. I believe it’s too top heavy, and we need to trade Marner and at least break even (if not, then we obviously keep him, and pray that Tavares waives and another team is eager to take him - hello Ken Holland, or package Nylander with maybe Engvall and balance the roster that way).
As I’ve said, I truly hope Dubas proves me wrong as I bleed blue and white. And if he doesn’t, I’m afraid we will be looking at another attempt to rebuild. But if we do, hopefully the new management will do it the right way.

 

[Dekes For Days]

if they were actually a very good team they would have won at least one series

Except what we are now is very different from what we were in most of those playoff losses, and then this past year we lost a massive piece in Tavares and barely lost to the Cup finalist.

 

[Dekes For Days]

We have built a pretty good regular season team.

We've built a very good team - period. Even very good teams lose in the playoffs sometimes, especially while missing a massive core piece of their roster.

I believe it’s too top heavy

It might be how you feel, but that's not actually supported by anything.

 

[hotpaws]

Except what we are now is very different from what we were in most of those playoff losses, and then this past year we lost a massive piece in Tavares and barely lost to the Cup finalist.

we had JT when we lost to Columbus and our 2nd line performed much better without him than it did with him the 2 previous playoffs

and just because we're different doesn't mean we've improved

 

[Captain Crunch]

We've built a very good team - period. Even very good teams lose in the playoffs sometimes, especially while missing a massive core piece of their roster.

It might be how you feel, but that's not actually supported by anything.

Regarding your first paragraph, the Islanders say hi.
Regarding your second paragraph, this past post-season and the “play-in” round against Columbus really help to back up my point. Pretty good in the regular season, no-shows in the playoffs when it really counts. Lineup needs to be better balanced.

 

[Racer88]

Except what we are now is very different from what we were in most of those playoff losses, and then this past year we lost a massive piece in Tavares and barely lost to the Cup finalist.

They put the cup finalists down 3-1 with Tavares missing then choked away 3 games. This cannot be denied. This is not barely losing to a team

 

[mikeyz]

It might be how you feel, but that's not actually supported by anything.

They've lost 4 first round matchups and technically missed the playoffs last year losing in a play in series.

What more do you need to see?

 

[Racer88]

They've lost 4 first round matchups and technically missed the playoffs last year losing in a play in series.

What more do you need to see?

Yup. Fancy stats and expected goals only hold up so long, at some point they need to actually produce something

 

[mikeyz]

Yup. Fancy stats and expected goals only hold up so long, at some point they need to actually produce something

They can't handle facts and the reality that this team isn't as good as they think or want it to be.

 

[Racer88]

They can't handle facts and the reality that this team isn't as good as they think or want it to be.

Yup…….unlucky is the excuse

 

[The90]

where has the Tavares regression talk come from? He's literally been a point a game player since he's gotten to the leafs and has not stopped producing at that rate. If we are being honest, he had brutal puck luck to start this season and he finished really strong. If anything I'd expect his production and goal scoring to increase.

He’s started slow the last 2 years and has came on really strong at the end. Pretty sure he was at or over a ppg the second half of this season and last

 

[Dekes For Days]

They've lost 4 first round matchups and technically missed the playoffs last year losing in a play in series.

The Leafs have made the playoffs for 5 straight years, but we have not had the same team for 5 straight years, and for the majority of those losses, we weren't even "top heavy".

Regarding your first paragraph, the Islanders say hi.

Not sure why. They have no relevance to the first paragraph.

Regarding your second paragraph, this past post-season and the “play-in” round against Columbus really help to back up my point.

But they don't. We didn't lose those series because we were too "top heavy".

just because we're different doesn't mean we've improved

We are improved, but the fact that we're different is really the key point.

This is not barely losing to a team

Losing a series 4-3, while outplaying and outscoring that team despite missing a significant core piece for the whole series is barely losing to a team.

 

[ACC1224]

They've lost 4 first round matchups and technically missed the playoffs last year losing in a play in series.

What more do you need to see?

What was worse missing the playoffs last year or blowing it this year? Tough one to answer.

For a few which year was the most ‘ Unluckiest’?

 

[Coachcorner]

Its' really starting to trend even stronger and fuller the fact that sandin is going to be our go to guy on the first pp unit next season. That's pretty nice and firm y'all already know Rielly can really concentrate on the 5 on 5 hockey and 4 on 4 dirt, making him even a mo better blues players than ever before. He'll also be getting PK minute thang going, so he can't play all anymore. We have better offensive minded talent to that type of dirt than his rear end period. Sandin is the man and he'll be becoming a more man too after and during this season. Period. He'll play with matthews, marner, tavares, nylander/simmonds/ritchie whom ever they choose to play that front guy/shooter thang. That's a given. Maybe simmonds still gets the spot, but tavares should always, always be there from the get go. He is one of our better scorers, so always, always start with the wind of change, your captain and best players. Period.