Line Combos: Leafs roster [Before] & [After] and work in progress

[Racer88]

Evidence shows all recent stanley cup winners won with elite superstars. We haven't found that right mix of the supporting cast, yet.

This chart needs to be tempered with the cap hit of those stars and the make up of the rest of the team to be relevant. Also the position played by each of those stars to indicate the balance of talent

 

[Bomber0104]

Evidence shows all recent stanley cup winners won with elite superstars. We haven't found that right mix of the supporting cast, yet.

What's the difference between a "Star" and an "Elite Superstar"?

Wow this is fun. I never realized there were these classifications for players.

Shouldn't there also be "Elite Star" and "Superstar" ones between the above two I mentioned?

 

[Racer88]

What's the difference between a "Star" and an "Elite Superstar"?

Wow this is fun. I never realized there were these classifications for players.

Shouldn't there also be "Elite Star" and "Superstar" ones between the above two I mentioned?

What about expected elite super awesome star

 

[Bomber0104]

What about expected elite super awesome star

Don't forget the luck factor.

Expected Unlucky Elite Superstar.

Perfectly describes Marner and Matthews.

 

[Racer88]

Don't forget the luck factor.

Expected Unlucky Elite Superstar.

Perfectly describes Marner and Matthews.

Thank you, I missed that little nugget of wisdom

 

[Eb]

What's the difference between a "Star" and an "Elite Superstar"?

Wow this is fun. I never realized there were these classifications for players.

Shouldn't there also be "Elite Star" and "Superstar" ones between the above two I mentioned?

Not that you care, but in his model, he classifies "Stars" as career PPG +0.7 ppg (forwards). (career +0.45ppg for dmen)

 

[sparxx87]

I'm sorry, but, your Captain being nearly decapitated in the 1st game 1st period does quality as 'unlucky' ...they didnt finish out the series, and there is no excuse for that, but, you cant 'make' your own luck out of the Tavares situation.
If Kucherov got knocked out in game 1, period 1 TB doesnt win the Cup, and that is a certainty
Somtimes, 'luck' is your players not getting hurt, or you get a crossbar and in, rather than out, or Hyman's butt doesnt block an open net gimmie of a goal in the series clinching game. ...that is 'luck' also, but, for the other team.

Injuries are apart of the game. Tampa wasn’t thinking about misfortune when their captain and 3rd best forward (like Tavares on the Leafs) was out for the entire playoffs… They just won anyway.

The Leafs aren’t a deep team so their injuries will cut deeper. This isn’t misfortune but a conscious choice by their general manager.

 

[Mess]

i relate this to mask wearing ...i do it because i have to.
you dont like the losses, but, you cant control them either, so, you have to accept it and move on, or, be worth 1 billion dollars, buy the team, and remake it in your image.
the problem is, some of us have been accepting the losses since the Ballard era (or longer) and disappointment is almost expected.

Long-term die hard fans do become jaded, as I can certainly relate to that as one who has spent the last 54 years since 1967 watching each season end in disappointment, but there is a difference between expected and accepted for me, as one continues to hope that eventually someone gets it right.

When on sees that the apparent solution to end all the decades upon decades of suffering lies in the hands of Michael Bunting, David Kämpf, Nick Ritchie and Petr Mrazek to make the difference between winning and losing, then that doesn't move the expected needle much for me. Truth be told I think its moving it in the wrong direction if hoisting the Stanley Cup is the objective behind those transactions.

The North Div was a cakewalk based on QofC were final 4 or bust was the floor for realistic exceptions for many Leaf fans. . We just blew in epic proportions a 3-1 series lead the best opportunity we had in the past 50 years. Now rejoining the Atlantic Div its going to be a real dogfight just to decide playoff qualifying teams due to increased QofC.

Buckle up I'm expecting a bumpy ride, and not because I'm prepared to accept the losses, but rather fear that outcome is inevitable.

 

[ShaneFalco]

When on sees that the apparent solution to end all the decades upon decades of suffering lies in the hands of Michael Bunting, David Kämpf, Nick Ritchie and Petr Mrazek to make the difference between winning and losing, then that doesn't move the expected needle much for me. Truth be told I think its moving it in the wrong direction if hoisting the Stanley Cup is the objective behind those transactions.

I'm optimistic with Bunting and Kampf, and to an extent Ritchie, but Mrazek hasn't been able to stay healthy and Campbell has been injured often. Kase is another injury-prone player.
Not convinced Keefe is the right coach to take this team to the next level, or that the core can finally develop that "killer instinct"
Hopefully I'm totally wrong or it's one more year wasted with a GM who to me has become an arrogant, short-term and short-sighted thinker

 

[Gary Nylund]

Not that you care, but in his model, he classifies "Stars" as career PPG +0.7 ppg (forwards). (career +0.45ppg for dmen)

Models, models, everywhere models.

JMHO but these models don't mean squat. Firstly, drawing the line at some number is completely arbitrary. Then even Zeke will tell you that judging players on point production alone is very flawed and he's right. Of course he'd want to look at expected this and corsi that but there are so many other things like how they play defence, to they take dumb penalties, do they draw penalties, how much of their production comes on the PP, I could go on and on and on. Also Zeke said that our star players are choking dogs, not sure how to model that but that also seems relevant (assuming you take Zeke seriously of course, not saying you do).

Completely useless model, that's my opinion anyway.

 

[meefer]

If one is diehard Leafs fan that is cheering passionately for their team to win (like most fans do in all fan bases) as that is the true objecting when cheering in sports, then when it continues to lose its not self-serving, but frustrating, aggravating and disappointing, particularly when it happens over and over again.

The obsession that does appear self-serving is the fans that are accepting of the losses, and continually try and explain them away to soften the emotional lows of disappointment, to make only themselves feel better I suppose, as that serves no one but themselves. IMHO

I love it when a fan is cheering the team they follow. But, I find it silly when people try to lump the reasons for losing into one basket. My 'emotional lows of disappointment' losing to Washington lasted about a day. I didn't expect them to win, I loved cheering for them, but I felt that I knew enough about the game to realize that the chances of beating Washington were slim. And you know what, I was right and didn't lose too much sleep about it. Montreal, a different kettle of fish, and I was not happy. You feel differently, be you, but don't tell me I'm trying to explain away a loss to a team that I saw as being much better than we were.

 

[Fogelhund]

The roster is the roster.... The same holds true today, as it did at the start of last season, and the start of the playoffs. We need our best players, to be our best players, and healthy. When they are, we can compete with anyone. If they aren't our best players, when it counts, we won't. We need regular season version of Marner, in the playoffs, and we need all of our young guys to step up and compete. It's a learning process, that takes time, and sometimes patience. Leafs Nation lacks patience, at an extreme level.

 

[meefer]

Kampf was picked up to fill the #3C and shutdown C role. He may surprise some people, and solidify the 3rd line, and the PK C spot, so we dont need to use Spezza/Matthews for draws.

I hope you are right. I have no problem with the player, but I'm not convinced a 3C, who offers such meagre offense, is equal to what a serious contender requires of a 3C. Danault was quite the bear this offseason, but in the end, the Habs lost. Again, I hope you're right.

 

[Eb]

Models, models, everywhere models.

JMHO but these models don't mean squat. Firstly, drawing the line at some number is completely arbitrary. Then even Zeke will tell you that judging players on point production alone is very flawed and he's right. Of course he'd want to look at expected this and corsi that but there are so many other things like how they play defence, to they take dumb penalties, do they draw penalties, how much of their production comes on the PP, I could go on and on and on. Also Zeke said that our star players are choking dogs, not sure how to model that but that also seems relevant (assuming you take Zeke seriously of course, not saying you do).

Completely useless model, that's my opinion anyway.

Ya, it's a very simplified way of looking at things and I'd agree that strictly looking at point production in most cases is very narrow minded. In this instance though, it does look like it's pretty correlated to cup winners.

Also, even if we were using a more in depth way of evaluating star players on teams by using advanced stats, we'd end up around a similar number with the Leafs as the core 4 + Muzzin and Rielly (offensively) all having very good underlying numbers.

 

[Mess]

I'm optimistic with Bunting and Kampf, and to an extent Ritchie, but Mrazek hasn't been able to stay healthy and Campbell has been injured often. Kase is another injury-prone player.
Not convinced Keefe is the right coach to take this team to the next level, or that the core can finally develop that "killer instinct"
Hopefully I'm totally wrong or it's one more year wasted with a GM who to me has become an arrogant, short-term and short-sighted thinker

Optimism reigns supreme during the season, and then realism rules the off-season for Leaf Nation when reality eventually sets in and what might look good on paper doesn't translate to on ice success.

All this tinkering around edges is something a team that is close to being Cup competitive would do, or has some final 4 appearances and need something to put them over the top. For the Leafs its always going to come down how the core 4 perform (as it is with all good teams your stars have to be your stars) or its game over.

The reason why despite the changes to other Cup competitive teams, there is always optimism they will figure it out when they swap out 3rd liners is because their stars show up in spades and carry the team ... Kucherov leads the playoffs annually in scoring, while Point leads the playoffs in goals the last 2 years while Hedman and Andrei Vasilevskiy are awarded the Conn Smythe for playoff MVP, so it doesn't matter as much if they have to replace Coleman and Goodrow in order to compete again. When has Boston's perfection line not shown up come the playoffs and we saw that first hand against our Leafs as they dismantled our playoff hopes more than once already in past playoff series?

Who are Leafs Kucherov, Point, Hedman and Vasilevskiy, certainly not any of the new players?

So 4th line C David Kampf coming off a 1 goal season in 56 games, or Michael Bunting a player with 26 NHL games experience after 7 pro seasons, or Kurtis Gabriel a 4th line knuckle dragger isn't the difference between Leafs winning and losing, whether its weakened, strengthened or its break-even on changes one year to the next.

In Toronto its always going to be about and come down to Auston, Mitch, Johnny and Willy actual playoff contributions, team defense in preventing goals against and solid playoff goaltending, the new additions hardly a drop in the bucket in terms of impact other than perhaps Mrazek if he is the one in net during the playoffs.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Leafs Nation lacks patience, at an extreme level.

I don't know how anyone can state this
It's a learning process to actually compete in big games and not roll over?
It's a learning process for MM to not score on the PP all year long and get shut down for 18 straight playoff games?
To stand up for eachother? Killer instinct? Being harder to play agianst? Wow these guys are sure being paid well to learn

 

[Gary Nylund]

Ya, it's a very simplified way of looking at things and I'd agree that strictly looking at point production in most cases is very narrow minded. In this instance though, it does look like it's pretty correlated to cup winners.

Also, even if we were using a more in depth way of evaluating star players on teams by using advanced stats, we'd end up around a similar number with the Leafs as the core 4 + Muzzin and Rielly (offensively) all having very good underlying numbers.

Indeed. Basically is shows us that every team that wins the cup has a few guys that put up some points, I think we all know that without any charts. Plus it says nothing about how the number of "stars" on those teams compares to all the the teams in the league so for all we know, teams with more "stars" don't do all that well. Not saying that's the case, just saying that as usual, raw numbers without a bunch of context don't mean a heck of a lot.

 

[Racer88]

We should have known we were just a mirage last year when Vancouver came back from being shut down because so many of their players had COVID and they destroyed the Leafs on the ice.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Leafs Nation lacks patience, at an extreme level.

Most patient fan base in the world IMO. We have the longest pro sports futility streak in the entire world and most fans are still fully engaged, closely following every move they make the same way they have always done. Surely you don't think that offering criticism every now and then means people aren't patient?

 

[Racer88]

Most patient fan base in the world IMO. We have the longest pro sports futility streak in the entire world and most fans are still fully engaged, closely following every move they make the same way they have always done. Surely you don't think that offering criticism every now and then means people aren't patient?

I would like this if I had a like button…..lol

 

[Gary Nylund]

We should have known we were just a mirage last year when Vancouver came back from being shut down because so many of their players had COVID and they destroyed the Leafs on the ice.

That was a bad sign indeed, so often this team just doesn't show up to play. Happens now and then to all teams but obviously what's most concerning, is how we seem to be paralyzed when it's all down to one game in the playoffs.

 

[ACC1224]

The roster is the roster.... The same holds true today, as it did at the start of last season, and the start of the playoffs. We need our best players, to be our best players, and healthy. When they are, we can compete with anyone. If they aren't our best players, when it counts, we won't. We need regular season version of Marner, in the playoffs, and we need all of our young guys to step up and compete. It's a learning process, that takes time, and sometimes patience. Leafs Nation lacks patience, at an extreme level.

I think we get that from Marner, problem is the opponents are no longer the regular season version.

 

[Racer88]

The roster is the roster.... The same holds true today, as it did at the start of last season, and the start of the playoffs. We need our best players, to be our best players, and healthy. When they are, we can compete with anyone. If they aren't our best players, when it counts, we won't. We need regular season version of Marner, in the playoffs, and we need all of our young guys to step up and compete. It's a learning process, that takes time, and sometimes patience. Leafs Nation lacks patience, at an extreme level.

Why does it take time for the stars to learn that you have to step up and compete in the playoffs. Most of these stars were on winning teams since they were 6 years old and now after they are being paid 11 million per year they have to learn commitment. Something is wrong if that’s the truth.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Why does it take time for the stars to learn that you have to step up and compete in the playoffs. Most of these stars were on winning teams since they were 6 years old and now after they are being paid 11 million per year they have to learn commitment. Something is wrong if that’s the truth.

It will suddenly click in when they're 26-27 or so

 

[Fogelhund]

Why does it take time for the stars to learn that you have to step up and compete in the playoffs. Most of these stars were on winning teams since they were 6 years old and now after they are being paid 11 million per year they have to learn commitment. Something is wrong if that’s the truth.

Yzerman, Ovechkin, Sakic...how long did it take these guys, and the managers to build around them, to win? It's pretty normal.