When someone uses expected stats to say the team played better than their results that doesn't really provide room for improvement, it just permits the use of bad luck as an excuse.
"Do better!"
"My expected results say I should have done better so I don't have to change anything."
If you choose to use it as an excuse to not address problem areas, that is the hallmark of a loser org.
If you use it to address what is working, but you are not getting the results, and try to find the way to get the results you want, that is the hallmark of a winning org. There are indeed times, when everything is working, but you didn't get the win, that you need to keep doing what you are... but then, if you look at the stats, you will also probably find out why you didn't win.
For example, Matthews has 33 shots. Getting shots is good. If he's shooting at his normal expected success rate, he has 5-6 goals, and our team is probably winning more games. His xGF is indeed much higher than his actual. So the question then becomes, what is going on, that has him shooting at 3%, and not 16.2%, and how do we address that? Overall that line is playing well, xGF vs. xGA is quite positive, getting chances... just not finishing.. so yes, it can help.
Another example... Samsanov has played above what we would think he's capable of..... he's saved our butts a bit at times... that could easily swing the other way too, so we better address our D issues before that happens, or we are truly in trouble.
We've all seen, and posted when the team is winning, but we know that they shouldn't... if you look at the stats, they likely agree that we shouldn't be winning... sometimes it's the other way around too...
Of course, there is far more to winning and losing, than what we are talking about here too... but you shouldn't use any one stat to be a definitive answer, because sport, individuals are more complex... but having more info, is never a bad thing either. (if you do something with it, that helps achieve your target goals)
Reilly is not going anywhere (just signed extension, for one).
He's still a valuable player, not to mention the fact that he jumped in after that hit on Robertson - that's a guy this team needs more of. Sure his defensive play has fallen off, so that needs to be addressed incl. managing his zone starts (though more difficult with Muzzin out) but for now, he's what we've got and like most of the rest of the team he simply has to be better.
...and that's the problem. Valuing a player, more than the team.
