Post-Game Talk: Leafs Lose 1-0

[Sypher04]

Didn't realize Kampf wasn't on the PK at all last night. He's so gone...

Yup. And the PK was pretty good tbh. At least as a starting point.

 

[notDatsyuk]

I thought the funniest part last night was the commentators during the first intermission talking about how Edmonton, Vancouver, and Toronto are the Canadian teams most likely to make it to the Cup finals.

Then Winnipeg stomped all over Edmonton, Vancouver blew two three-goal leads and lost to Calgary, and Toronto couldn't score against Montreal.

Oh, well - only game 1 of 82.

 

[Trapper]

OEL's breakaway was one of the funniest things he's done

Shooting from the top of the circle summed it up. Sure we had 47 shots so everyone is happy but there really wasn’t anyone in the crease hacking and banging or 2nd/3rd intense effort. A lot was shoot, come around, shoot again. All giving the goalie time to set.

Brad Treliving press conference: We have to stop making the goalies the number 1 star.
Start the season, make the goalie the number 1 star.

 

[Sypher04]

Honestly, this is a winning brand of hockey. Haven't felt this good after a loss in a while. Sometimes as fans we get fixated on the end result, and understandably so, but if you play that way 82 games straight you will win more than you will lose. Plain and simple.

No need to go back to the drawing board. More of the same

The takes here don’t shock me, but this is what people should be saying today.

You can already see the signs of how we’re going to change. Give this team some time to adapt and I think we are going to really like how we play.

 

[Twine Tickler]

It would be interesting to have someone go back and breakdown the gametape and see what happened because if you go by what the advanced stats sites say, it shows that we actually had alot of high danger chances in this game.

23 high danger chances for according to naturalstattrick and this is where last night's game would rank in HDCF compared to every game last season. Only three times last year in total we put up more high danger scoring chances than last night.

I am always skeptical around some of these stats and not every high danger chance created is equal, so I hear what you're saying when you raise doubt.

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Ya as much as I love advanced analytics, there are some obvious flaws to the collection of the data points. One key failure to this system is that all HDCF are weighted the same. Ie. a breakaway with the puck on Auston Mathews tape is weighted the same as a slot chance for David Kampf. I don't need to explain which of the 2 are more threatening to our opponents. But nonetheless, those chances are calculated in our overall xGF equally, which in reality is not the case.

That said, conceivably those statistical flaws are being accumulated equally across both teams on the ice. So in theory it should even out in the wash.

I typically value advanced analytics secondary to eye test. Usually they align quite well, but there are the odd times where they are just off. I feel like last nights advanced stats were a bloated on both ends of the ice. They had the final score being roughly 6-3 Leafs lol. Not sure I saw that as a 9 goal game at all. Sure both tendy's played great, but I just don't see how it could come to that conclusion. But again, having the Leafs outscoring the habs at a 2:1 ratio does kinda add up to my eye test. Maybe more like 2-1 Leafs or 4-2.

 

[3blizzard4]

PP was the story. Brutal again. Not even a threat.

I know it’s the first game but AM34 has to play 3/4 of each PP. not one minute.

 

[thusk]

Yup. And the PK was pretty good tbh. At least as a starting point.

Leafs pk had been pretty bad, 34% of all habs scoring chance come on pp and 57% of all habs high scoring chance come on PP.

Stolarz made PK look fine, nothing else...

 

[Hellcat]

They won't run into goaltending every night like they did last night.

We will if we dont fight for space in the slot, I dont feel it was that Montembault played all the well, I think the Leafs helped make him look like he was standing on his head, far too much perimeter play. One example was that replay before the period ended that showed 5 Habs in between their face off dots, collapsing to their net and not one leaf in that replay looking for a rebound. Yeah we got a bunch of post but the post are generally considered by goalies to be part of their equipment. This is a case of a team not working as hard or as unified as their opponents.

 

[DutchHockeyGuy]

I've seen good teams lose to bad teams, it's happens but to be as predictable as this team is against bad teams, I can't figure out why. Maybe its our-bug-aboo. Maybe bad teams think that the Leafs, while considered one of the elites, are really not that elite and maybe that motivates them to play us harder? I dunno TBH.

The explanation I heard a lot is that most opponents have plenty of players who grew up in Ontario, so they see playing the Leafs as special. Most of their friends and family watch the games with more interest too. And in other parts of Canada people tend to get annoyed at the amount of attention the Leafs get in the Media.

 

[Clark4Ever]

We were obviously the better team, hit a few posts and a crossbar, and ran into a hot goalie.

If we keep playing that way 5 on 5, we should be fine. The power play needs to get going and we need be more disciplined but overall, I liked the effort.

Stolarz was fantastic.

 

[Hellcat]

Dont know how atlets do things , but most Dads nowday help with the kid during some nights (if they are of any use, wich they might not be). Sleep might be affected.
Read in a study that as little as 30min less sleep or in the wrong time of the day makes a difference in reaction etc. Up to 13% less if it is a our or more.
So a NHL player wiith any sleeping problem got a lot agains them.

If he gave birth he would not be back this season...

He's looking like he is doing a little too much late night snacks, guys who eat like their pregnant wives is a thing, some of us put on 20, 30lbs when our wives are preggers. Sympathy eating?

The explanation I heard a lot is that most opponents have plenty of players who grew up in Ontario, so they see playing the Leafs as special. Most of their friends and family watch the games with more interest too. And in other parts of Canada people tend to get annoyed at the amount of attention the Leafs get in the Media.

I can see that being a thing.

 

[meefer]

Missed the game last night, but thx to all for the sober reflections on what happened. Some mid-season form from many.

 

[horner]

Shooting from the top of the circle summed it up. Sure we had 47 shots so everyone is happy but there really wasn’t anyone in the crease hacking and banging or 2nd/3rd intense effort. A lot was shoot, come around, shoot again. All giving the goalie time to set.

Brad Treliving press conference: We have to stop making the goalies the number 1 star.
Start the season, make the goalie the number 1 star.

The 4th line did some of that
One cancelations we did hit 3 post.
But you are rightbalot of perimeter play and not enough netbfront presents especially in the pp.
Bertuzzi he was great at th3 just gonto the net.
Knies needs ylyondo fhat

 

[Hellcat]

The takes here don’t shock me, but this is what people should be saying today.

You can already see the signs of how we’re going to change. Give this team some time to adapt and I think we are going to really like how we play.

I think that is the key, time, we looked like a hybrid of the old team and the new team, IMO they looked pretty disjointed, mixed up and confused. This is a team who has learned how to play Professional hockey only one way for 8 years, it takes time to forget old systems and to learn new systems

Shooting from the top of the circle summed it up. Sure we had 47 shots so everyone is happy but there really wasn’t anyone in the crease hacking and banging or 2nd/3rd intense effort. A lot was shoot, come around, shoot again. All giving the goalie time to set.

Brad Treliving press conference: We have to stop making the goalies the number 1 star.
Start the season, make the goalie the number 1 star.

You're an old fart like me, funny how our old eyes saw the same thing.

 

[Twine Tickler]

The takes here don’t shock me, but this is what people should be saying today.

You can already see the signs of how we’re going to change. Give this team some time to adapt and I think we are going to really like how we play.

Yup,

It was never going to be a smooth transition. Especially for our skill guys.

I see a lot of commentary about the Defense taking too many weak shots from distance on twitter. But to me that was one of the more encouraging things I saw all night TBH. Pucks towards net, crash the net, knuckle dragging, lunch pale hockey. This is how goals are scored in April-June. We failed to take away Monty's eyes on those shots which did limit our high danger second chances on rebounds. But that sort of stuff will come with time when more of our top end players start buying in and go towards the dirty areas of the ice.

Of course you still need to allow our big dogs to be creative, but in order for us to find that balance we first need to overcorrect our most obvious flaws from the past. Being too cute

I don't care if we lose 5 straight to start the season if we continue to play like that, The wins will start stacking up.

It's a far more consistent brand of hockey

like you said, give this style of play some time and we are going to fall in love with the product.

 

[weems]

Yup,

It was never going to be a smooth transition. Especially for our skill guys.

I see a lot of commentary about the Defense taking too many weak shots from distance on twitter. But to me that was one of the more encouraging things I saw all night TBH. Pucks towards net, crash the net, knuckle dragging, lunch pale hockey. This is how goals are scored in April-June. We failed to take away Monty's eyes on those shots which did limit our high danger second chances on rebounds. But that sort of stuff will come with time when more of our top end players start buying in and go towards the dirty areas of the ice.

Of course you still need to allow our big dogs to be creative, but in order for us to find that balance we first need to overcorrect our most obvious flaws from the past. Being too cute

I don't care if we lose 5 straight to start the season if we continue to play like that, The wins will start stacking up.

It's a far more consistent brand of hockey

like you said, give this style of play some time and we are going to fall in love with the product.

I felt OEL was especially strong in this regard in the O-zone.
He fired a ton of volume towards the net but unfortunately had alot blocked.
I think you saw the good and bad of him last night in that he has obvious offensive skill and will have some good chemistry with our skilled players but there were also times he made some soft plays with the puck and he will have his defensive gaffs forsure.
I agree with your analysis that this is the type of way you score alot of goals late in the postseason.

 

[Mess]

Having 4 players in the top 12 highest paid AAV in the NHL and they couldn't buy a goal against a rebuilding 2nd youngest team in the league.

Berube noted that the fatal flaw that cost them the game was on the power play where the Leafs went 0-for-4. He also disliked how their unnecessary penalties took away their momentum.

"Not direct enough. A little outside for me, you know? We didn't look to attack right away, get shots, and get pucks to the net to look for some rebounds. We were just moving it around on the outside too much. I don't want to call it 'too cute,' but we have to be more direct. That, too," said Berube on the PP.

First time Leafs shutout since November 21, 2021 ending a streak of 227 straight games without being blanked.

The Maple Leafs weren't nearly as sharp as they needed to be on this night, despite the high volume of shots towards Montembeault. They were sloppy with the puck in the offensive zone, passed far too often and didn't get nearly enough traffic in front of the Habs' net.

 

[myleafs]

expected goal
Marner +1,5
Matthews +1,35
Knies +1,24
Domi + 0,64
Nylander + 0,36
Tavares + 0,26

no the fact Marner played with matthews didn't explain the fact why Marner had 4X Nylander expected goal number, why he had been 2nd team high behind McCabe and why Domi ( Nylander teammate) got basically 2X Nylander number. Both Jt and nylander been terrible and using Nylander with matthews and knies the way he played would just broke this line.

expected goal =

 

[disgruntleddave]

The main thing that was shocking was that our pp entries look as ass garbage or worse than last year.

The guys and or coaches just don't get it. That was truly unacceptable.

 

[LeafGrief]

It would be interesting to have someone go back and breakdown the gametape and see what happened because if you go by what the advanced stats sites say, it shows that we actually had alot of high danger chances in this game.

23 high danger chances for according to naturalstattrick and this is where last night's game would rank in HDCF compared to every game last season. Only three times last year in total we put up more high danger scoring chances than last night.

I am always skeptical around some of these stats and not every high danger chance created is equal, so I hear what you're saying when you raise doubt.

View attachment 914587

Interesting that the stats say that. I can't say that I'm particularly surprised, I think we end up with pretty good high danger chances in our playoff games too, and I really do think that most of them are "junk". Stats say we have an xGF of 4.7 at 5on5 and nearly 6 in all situations, and this is one of those cases where the stats really just do not match the play on the ice.

It reminds me of the Hurricanes in the early Brind'Amour days (not sure if they still do it) where they were always the analytics darlings because they just threw absolutely everything at the net. It's not a particularly bad strategy, "shots on net" is great coaching advice from Pewee on up, but the models overrate this strategy and NHL goalies get to pad their stats for the night. Montembault is a decent goalie, but he only had to make two or three "good" saves last night, Stolarz made just as many "big" ones. We had the zone time and flung lots of rubber at the net from okay shooting spots to juice up the model, but there was none of the cross-seam or open slot chances that stick out as real opportunities, nobody was anywhere near the rebounds. OEL had his breakaway and Matthews had a good chance with a handful of seconds left, we certainly weren't lifeless out there, but this was pretty far from some sort of goaltending clinic or "bad luck" on the part of our shooters.

If the models say that we win that game most times, sure I can understand that, we probably were the better team out there, but these are also the Leafs and we don't exist in a vacuum, we know that this is a consistent problem with our team. See how we lost in all of those top HDCF games last year!

Anyways, I'm not trying to make some mountain out of the molehill that is game one, I'm just calling it as I saw it. We generated some chances, but we were far from incisive, dominant, or truly threatening. We'll score plenty this year, watch us bag 6 tonight, but it is of course frustrating to see us continuing old habits of the offense going dry in big games.

 

[myleafs]

Thanks, but we’re trying to be as negative as possible here.

You’re also right, we dominated everywhere.

So we dominated but Stolarz was great? I will agree that Stolarz kept the leafs in the game as they could have been down 2-3 without him. Habs were the better team the first half of the game even with the 2 min offensive zone possession the leafs had....2nd half was better for the leafs. Dominated? I don't think so.

 

[DarkKnight]

So we dominated but Stolarz was great? I will agree that Stolarz kept the leafs in the game as they could have been down 2-3 without him. Habs were the better team the first half of the game even with the 2 min offensive zone possession the leafs had....2nd half was better for the leafs. Dominated? I don't think so.

By every measure they did. A goalie can’t be good and the team? Strange.

Yup. And the PK was pretty good tbh. At least as a starting point.

If Kampf doesn’t PK, what’s the point?

 

[Dekes For Days]

Ya as much as I love advanced analytics, there are some obvious flaws to the collection of the data points. One key failure to this system is that all HDCF are weighted the same. Ie. a breakaway with the puck on Auston Mathews tape is weighted the same as a slot chance for David Kampf. I don't need to explain which of the 2 are more threatening to our opponents. But nonetheless, those chances are calculated in our overall xGF equally, which in reality is not the case.

That's not how xGF works. HDCFs are not all weighted the same.

 

[1specter]

One Meh! for another Meh! Timmins drives play and is a bigger dman ,on a Tree and Berube team, that is the tie breaker.

He doesn't do much with the additional size, is slower and makes some pretty amateur mistakes in his own zone from a lack of experience.

 

[Budz]

The need for a middle 6 Centre is glaring.

The lack of this kills the vibes of both the 2nd and 3rd lines. I really think it needs to be a play maker, not a shoot first scorer. JT needs to be the 3C and play heavy cycle game with complimentary wingers.

I love Knies, but he is not a LW 1. If we are keeping 34+16, then play Patch/Robertson with them. Need to have 2 shooters on lines with Marner. He’s allergic to shooting.

I like the 4th line’s game.

I’m hopeful they give Minten a shot, once healthy. I think him and Nylander make a lot of sense.

Right now - It’s all disjointed (lines) in my opinion, but it’s trending the right way, we’re just impatient.