Eklund Rumor: Leafs in on Cam Fowler

[Sojourn]

The argument is absolutely terrible.

The Hawks won a Cup with Handzus as a #2C, did that make him a top 6 player? No he was just carried by much better players. Team record is a terrible way to judge a player's effectiveness. It's like using wins to judge the quality of a pitcher.

Your argument is even worse.

You admit that Handzus was carried by much better players, but then don't take the next step by looking at whether this argument actually applies to Fowler. Is Kevin Bieksa that "much better player(s)"?

If the situation doesn't apply to Fowler, how is it relevant? At a guess, Handzus spent most of his time with guys like Kane, Hossa, or Sharp. Am I right? Is that really how you want to play this? Because Kevin Bieksa is none of those players. In fact, in this situation you've laid out, Bieksa is Handzus. So, you've done Fowler a favor here. You've now suggested that he had a hand in the team's success, despite having Kevin Bieksa in such a prominent role.

 

[Pyromaniac]

How is it terrible? Fowler plays big minutes and tough matchups over the last few years his partners have been Lovejoy/Despres/Bieksa, not exactly cream of the crop yet the coach trusted him to play with them against other teams top 6 forwards fairly regularly. If Fowler was an awful player like some here claim, the ducks would simply not be as successful with him in that role.

The stats show that Fowler is getting killed on the ice when playing the minutes that he does. He isn't an awful player but the numbers tell us that he is outmatched in the situations that he was played in. Boudreau obviously mismanaged his usage. He should be facing easier competition and that tells us that he isn't a top pairing defenseman.

Using team record to judge an individual is the kind of perfunctory analysis that leads to misleading conclusions.

 

[aufheben]

"ducks have a very solid team, with good core players"

fowler has been our #1 for a few years

"fowler is top 4 on a solid team"

Plays on solid team, as #1


well that was easily debunked

That doesn't prove their success was because of him. Sorry.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

The argument is absolutely terrible.

The Hawks won a Cup with Handzus as a #2C, did that make him a top 6 player? No he was just carried by much better players. Team record is a terrible way to judge a player's effectiveness. It's like using wins to judge the quality of a pitcher.

Just because it isn't 100% true doesn't mean it's a terrible argument. Winning teams tend to win based on the performances of their most used players.

 

[Pyromaniac]

Your argument is even worse.

You admit that Handzus was carried by much better players, but then don't take the next step by looking at whether this argument actually applies to Fowler. Is Kevin Bieksa that "much better player(s)"?

If the situation doesn't apply to Fowler, how is it relevant? At a guess, Handzus spent most of his time with guys like Kane, Hossa, or Sharp. Am I right? Is that really how you want to play this? Because Kevin Bieksa is none of those players. In fact, in this situation you've laid out, Bieksa is Handzus. So, you've done Fowler a favor here. You've now suggested that he had a hand in the team's success, despite having Kevin Bieksa in such a prominent role.

The point was to dismiss the argument that team record has anything to do with a player's quality. The Handzus example accomplished that. We have better metrics to judge players.

 

[dracom]

And like clockwork, this thread has turned into a thread about how terrible Fowler is because fancy stats says so, and he is getting carried by better players (like Bieksa lol).

 

[Babcocks Marner]

Damn, love Fowler..... now we are guaranteed not to get him

 

[nilssont]

I am hoping that Fowler returns a forward that we can afford to keep for more than 2 years, and if JvR pots 30 here he is looking at 6M-ish which we cant afford.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

That doesn't prove their success was because of him. Sorry.

It doesn't need to prove their success was because of him. It's merely a counter to this ridiculous notion that Fowler is being carried by the other players on the Ducks. I'm sorry but teams tend to see over three or more seasons when a certain individual is getting carried and then look to replace him. If anything, it's Fowler carrying his defense partner more than anything else.

 

[pucku33]

The stats show that Fowler is getting killed on the ice when playing the minutes that he does. He isn't an awful player but the numbers tell us that he is outmatched in the situations that he was played in. Boudreau obviously mismanaged his usage. He should be facing easier competition and that tells us that he isn't a top pairing defenseman.

Using team record to judge an individual is the kind of perfunctory analysis that leads to misleading conclusions.

The stats of Cam Fowler getting the most minutes on the team with the fewest goals allowed? Yeah that's terrible...

 

[Pinkfloyd]

The point was to dismiss the argument that team record has anything to do with a player's quality. The Handzus example accomplished that. We have better metrics to judge players.

It actually doesn't because a d-man's importance to a team winning is a lot more than a rental 2nd line center position.

 

[aufheben]

It doesn't need to prove their success was because of him. It's merely a counter to this ridiculous notion that Fowler is being carried by the other players on the Ducks. I'm sorry but teams tend to see over three or more seasons when a certain individual is getting carried and then look to replace him. If anything, it's Fowler carrying his defense partner more than anything else.

I don't see why that's ridiculous at all.

 

[Hunter368]

You're stepping all over your point here.

The Ducks are a solid team, and he's a top pairing defenseman on that roster. Your argument would work much better if the Ducks were not, in fact, a good team. If they were consistently missing the playoffs, for example. But their success as a team, and with Fowler in a high responsibility role, completely flies in the face of your insinuation that he'd only be a top 4 guy on a very solid team.

I laugh how people equate a playoff team means they have a true 1 everything, they don't. Teams are a mix of strengths and weaknesses and all told are you good enough to be a contender or not.

Flip side of that logic is just b/c you have a Elite player in one position doesn't mean your a contender or good team.

Thus overall your team was good enough to be a playoff team, this fact doesn't mean you have a true #1 dman or true #1 goalie, etc just as an example.

I don't see Fowler in the top 30 LHD around the NHL, heck even your some of your own fans a knowledge he's likely a true #3 dman.

 

[Pyromaniac]

Just because it isn't 100% true doesn't mean it's a terrible argument. Winning teams tend to win based on the performances of their most used players.

It is a terrible argument. We have much better metrics available to judge individual players than wins and losses. Teams often manage to be successful despite being outmatched. The same goes if individual players on a team are also outmatched.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

The leafs aren't paying Gardiner or Fowler top 4 dollars to play on the 3rd pairing while insuring they have no top 6 wingers who are skilled and not rookies.
Big Pass.

 

[go4hockey]

Duck fans for some reason seem to think JVR is useless

This is not true at all. They just have no interest in him for a guy like Lindholm. Big difference.

 

[Sojourn]

I laugh how people equate a playoff team means they have a true 1 everything, they don't. Teams are a mix of strengths and weaknesses and all told are you good enough to be a contender or not.

Flip side of that logic is just b/c you have a Elite player in one position doesn't mean your a contender or good team.

Thus overall your team was good enough to be a playoff team, this fact doesn't mean you have a true #1 dman or true #1 goalie, etc just as an example.

I don't see Fowler in the top 30 LHD around the NHL, heck even your some of your own fans a knowledge he's likely a true #3 dman.

I love that no one said that. You're trying to defend an argument that no one made, to defend your ridiculous assertion that Fowler would only be a top 4 defenseman on a solid team.

You're accusing us of saying something we haven't said. In fact, the entirety of your post is an accusation, and it's trying to accuse us of saying something we never did. If you're going to try to defend your insinuation that Fowler is only a top 4 defenseman on a solid team, you should start there. Don't try to create an entirely new argument that doesn't exist.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I don't see why that's ridiculous at all.

Because it would be awfully difficult for simply the forwards to carry Fowler when his partner is Bieksa. If an entire top pairing is being carried, they don't yield the results they have the past few years. It should be seen as common sense even if advanced metrics don't agree with it.

It is a terrible argument. We have much better metrics available to judge individual players than wins and losses. Teams often manage to be successful despite being outmatched. The same goes if individual players on a team are also outmatched.

Care to provide an example of a top pairing being outmatched and being successful? Not just a single individual because the argument here that people are making to show Fowler is overrated is that he is being carried pretty much entirely based on the forwards he plays with because it sure as hell isn't someone like Bieksa carrying him. And you're still not really disproving the d-man/TOI/team record argument at this point. There are more precise metrics to paint a picture of a d-man but it doesn't mean that those metrics are universal in showing someone is effective. It is actually possible for someone with poor advanced statistics to be an effective player in his role. Some people can't fathom that possibility.

 

[Sojourn]

It is a terrible argument. We have much better metrics available to judge individual players than wins and losses. Teams often manage to be successful despite being outmatched. The same goes if individual players on a team are also outmatched.

Yes, over short spans. Not consistently.

 

[aufheben]

Because it would be awfully difficult for simply the forwards to carry Fowler when his partner is Bieksa. If an entire top pairing is being carried, they don't yield the results they have the past few years. It should be seen as common sense even if advanced metrics don't agree with it.

So maybe coaches and managers aren't infallible? People seem to have no problem saying how much Bieksa sucks.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

They can take contract but Stoner is awful

No he isn't at all, he's a very solid bottom pairing veteran who happens to be overpaid. Stoner would fit very nicely in Toronto as a babysitter for one of your young puck movers. He was an excellent partner for Vatanen.

 

[Sojourn]

So maybe coaches and managers aren't infallible? People seem to have no problem saying how much Bieksa sucks.

The problem is that you're suggesting they doubled up on suck, and still managed to come out of it a good team. If you were playing two questionable defensemen together, and giving them the most minutes, you should expect the team to struggle as a result. The opposite is true. The team found success.

And the Ducks were not so good a team that they could afford to give those kinds of minutes to Fowler and Bieksa, and still win games. Not if that D pairing wasn't doing its job.

Edit: I'm not disputing that a poor defenseman(or any player) can be in a big role, and the team can be successful. That goes without saying. If you put a poor player with a very good one, you can get more from the poor player than you might otherwise expect. At the very least, that player might be able to tread water. That just isn't what happened here. Fowler wasn't playing with, say, Lindholm. Or using the New York example, he didn't have McDonagh. He didn't have a superior defenseman to lean on. He had Kevin Bieksa.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

I laugh how people equate a playoff team means they have a true 1 everything, they don't. Teams are a mix of strengths and weaknesses and all told are you good enough to be a contender or not.

Flip side of that logic is just b/c you have a Elite player in one position doesn't mean your a contender or good team.

Thus overall your team was good enough to be a playoff team, this fact doesn't mean you have a true #1 dman or true #1 goalie, etc just as an example.

I don't see Fowler in the top 30 LHD around the NHL, heck even your some of your own fans a knowledge he's likely a true #3 dman.

Your argument only works if Fowler is being carried by someone. He's been stuck carrying bottom pairing partners while taking the toughest matchups, of course his advanced stats suffer for it.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

I always laugh how we get king shark and wing fans defending our players now... arguably our 3 biggest rivals of all time.


that's got to count for something right.

 

[pbgoalie]

Toronto fans over value their player in rumors

ducks fans do same

As a ducks fan,many a guy who played hockey at CBA I like JVR
Just not for Lindholm

I WOULD take JVR for fowler. Gives us a strong left side presence, and while
fowler IS very solid we really need some solid scoring.

I actually believe Toronto wins that deal long term, but JVR would help us more in our current window.

I'm assuming Hampus takes another step up and a Shea can continue his improvement as well.

Losing fowler is a big risk either way for the ducks, but we are going to lose someone