Eklund Rumor: Leafs in on Cam Fowler

[DANTHEMAN1967]

And as I just said, I think it's rather silly to think the Leafs farm system, without their top prospects, is enough to really tempt Anaheim in the slightest. It's silly from a Leafs perspective to think that Marner, for example, would have to move to get Fowler, and it's silly from a value perspective, but it seems almost equally silly to think that a Brown level prospect would get it done, both from Anaheim's perspective, and a value perspective. One is far too much, one is far too little, yet Anaheim has the player, so they can dictate the price. If it doesn't fit their needs, there's no reason for them to accept futures that are only "fair" in value. Yet you and another Leafs fan went after that Ducks fan who basically said just that.

Anaheim's position is weak.
The rest of the league knows that they have an internal cap, still need to sign Lindholm and Rakell and risk losing one of Fowler, Vatanen or Lindholm for nothing to Vegas in the Summer.
They will need to accept less than what they think is "Fair".

 

[Avs44]

Anaheim's position is weak.
The rest of the league knows that they have an internal cap, still need to sign Lindholm and Rakell and risk losing one of Fowler, Vatanen or Lindholm for nothing to Vegas in the Summer.
They will need to accept less than what they think is "Fair".

Considering the clamour for top four defensmen, I don't think they'll be too badly off. Expansion is also a year away, teams during the year are going to get desperate for defenders, they always do. I don't think that's going to pressure them all that much right now, at all. It's not like expansion is a month away, there's an entire season to go, the deadline, the draft, etc.

 

[4thline]

It's a fact that it's not applicable because in the context of this conversation, it's merely an abstract thought. There's nothing of actual substance to make the blue line point regarding the Pens and how it relates to the Leafs. It's purposely vague to avoid the details of it because the details of it would invalidate that point.

Your initial and dogged stance has been that this is a no brainer trade because on paper the leafs defense is bad and that upgrading the D with Fowler rather than retaining JVR will make them better now. This has been based on the pillar that an effective d-core is more important than the drop off in offensive talent.

The counter, and application of the Pens point, is that the Leafs organization and fans feel like the d will be more effective than it shows on paper (through the mix of players, a couple wildcards stepping up, systems and team play), effective enough that in short term filling that hole in the short term at the cost of JVR may not be the smartest move given the state and direction of the team. The details don't invalidate it all, the details are just a gamble that you disagree with. All signs point to there being high expectations on Zaitsev and Carrick within the Leafs org. If in their eyes the group they have can be effective relative to team goals for the season than it becomes JVR+ effective d vs. more effective d and no jvr, which then boils down to assessing both the fit and replacibility of JVR vs. Fowler long-term, which will be easier to sign etc.

I'm actually less against moving Reilly to the right than most, I'd just rather not do it yet.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

And as I just said, I think it's rather silly to think the Leafs farm system, without their top prospects, is enough to really tempt Anaheim in the slightest. It's silly from a Leafs perspective to think that Marner, for example, would have to move to get Fowler, and it's silly from a value perspective, but it seems almost equally silly to think that a Brown level prospect would get it done, both from Anaheim's perspective, and a value perspective. One is far too much, one is far too little, yet Anaheim has the player, so they can dictate the price. If it doesn't fit their needs, there's no reason for them to accept futures that are only "fair" in value. Yet you and another Leafs fan went after that Ducks fan who basically said just that.

Not Brown no but I do think if the ducks were willing to move Fowler for a futures package that if the Leafs put a guy like Kapanen on the table something could be built around that. I also think if they put Kadri on the table something could be built around that and I know Kadri just got a deal but I also know guys like Kessel Carter and Richards got moved shortly after signing new contracts too.

 

[Vipers31]

Anaheim's position is weak.
The rest of the league knows that they have an internal cap, still need to sign Lindholm and Rakell and risk losing one of Fowler, Vatanen or Lindholm for nothing to Vegas in the Summer.
They will need to accept less than what they think is "Fair".

Repeating it doesn't make it any more true. The position isn't weak, whatsoever. They have a valuable asset that 10+ teams would love to get. That's not a situation where they have to take less. What's driving a price isn't whether the selling team's situation looks like, it's the demand on the market, and the demand for players like Fowler is unquestioned, at least by sober minds.

 

[Michel Beauchamp]

Really? Take a look at the team that just won the cup....did that D group scream high end defense when you looked on paper? They were playing cast off Schultz...guys like Cole...Lovejoy....i mean after Letang, you have Maata and ??? But you know what they do have? One Hell of a forward group.

Furthermore, as far as impact, lets say JVR scores 25-30 goals....and assists and assists on 25-30 more (pretty much what he has done), that means that he has a positive impact on 50-60 goals. Now, unless Fowler is guaranteed to prevent 50-60 goals that the Leafs would allow without him, how can you say he has more impact than JVR?

Don't you mean 25-35 ?

Unless you believe that Fowler will have no goals and no assists...

 

[DANTHEMAN1967]

Repeating it doesn't make it any more true. The position isn't weak, whatsoever. They have a valuable asset that 10+ teams would love to get. That's not a situation where they have to take less. What's driving a price isn't whether the selling team's situation looks like, it's the demand on the market, and the demand for players like Fowler is unquestioned, at least by sober minds.

A sober mind wouldn't be so naive as to think that other GMs wouldn't try and take advantage of Anaheim's situation.

 

[dracom]

A sober mind wouldn't be so naive as to think that other GMs wouldn't try and take advantage of Anaheim's situation.

Yep, just like Toronto would take advantage of the Freddy trade. Or how Buffalo would offer sheet Lindholm because they're GM doesn't care about his relationship with other GMs.

GMs aren't out to screw each other over like the users on here are, they all have a working professional relationship.

Besides that, we're not that desperate to move out someone like you believe we are. We have the money for Lindholm and Rakell. The only reason we would want to move out Fowler would be to swap that asset to a top 6 forward asset.

 

[DANTHEMAN1967]

Yep, just like Toronto would take advantage of the Freddy trade. Or how Buffalo would offer sheet Lindholm because they're GM doesn't care about his relationship with other GMs.

GMs aren't out to screw each other over like the users on here are, they all have a working professional relationship.

Besides that, we're not that desperate to move out someone like you believe we are. We have the money for Lindholm and Rakell. The only reason we would want to move out Fowler would be to swap that asset to a top 6 forward asset.

The Ducks have roughly $8,400,000 left to spend if they are a true cap team.
Even if they sign Rakell they will only have 11 forwards counting against the cap so they will need to either sign someone or elevate someone from within plus sign Rakell and Lindholm.

It's possible (probable) that both Rakell and Lindholm will be forced to take bridge deals but they definitely can't sign Lindholm long-term this year because if Vatanen is worth $4,875,000 then Lindholm will want $5,500,000 or $6,000,000.

I think this is why they are more desperate then you may think.

 

[Vipers31]

A sober mind wouldn't be so naive as to think that other GMs wouldn't try and take advantage of Anaheim's situation.

And one GM could certainly try to do that. Two probably could. But there's no factors like NTCs in play to limit the market in a way that we're down to two GMs. When there's 29 GMs to work with, there is no possibility to take advantage, because there's too much competition for a quality asset.

 

[Ducks in a row]

Anaheim's position is weak.
The rest of the league knows that they have an internal cap, still need to sign Lindholm and Rakell and risk losing one of Fowler, Vatanen or Lindholm for nothing to Vegas in the Summer.
They will need to accept less than what they think is "Fair".

We are not trading Fowler for something that doesn't do well at helping us win now. Anything short of a good enough main piece to help us win now won't get it done.

 

[Liferleafer]

Don't you mean 25-35 ?

Unless you believe that Fowler will have no goals and no assists...

Ok...sure. But that still leaves negative 25-35.....

 

[Heraldic]

While top-4 d-man have real value, teams likely are not going to pay a premium price when the odds are that next off-season to the very latest there will be exceptionally many top-4 d-man shopped.

For example Tim Murray was looking for a top-4 d-man from last off--season. But he wasn't willing to give a core piece in return. He waited, and got what he wanted without giving that kind of piece away.

The time is on every other teams' side but Ducks'.

 

[Holymakinaw]

While top-4 d-man have real value, teams likely are not going to pay a premium price when the odds are that next off-season to the very latest there will be exceptionally many top-4 d-man shopped.

For example Tim Murray was looking for a top-4 d-man from last off--season. But he wasn't willing to give a core piece in return. He waited, and got what he wanted without giving that kind of piece away.

The time is on every other teams' side but Ducks'.

People say stuff like that because they want something for nothing. But how often is it true?

Anaheim will get a quality return for a quality player. No one is "giving" anyone good away.

 

[Heraldic]

People say stuff like that because they want something for nothing. But how often is it true?

Anaheim will get a quality return for a quality player. No one is "giving" anyone good away.

No one is saying Ducks will give him free. But there isn't any team with urgent need for a top-4. Unless Lindholm signs QO or a bridge deal (not likely), Ducks need to shed salary. That basically also limits the type of return for Fowler.

BM has no leverage - at all. It affects the negotiations with other teams. For example Sabres and Montreal reportedly balked at giving top-10 pick. There is little Murray can do for it. Tim Murray just traded for another d-man - he had options. The more time rolls on, the less options Murray will have.

 

[Vipers31]

But there isn't any team with urgent need for a top-4.

If you really believe that, there is no helping you on this.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

I don't see how this is still going. Eklund released Fowler to TOR and Shattenkirk to MTL on the same day. Clearly looking for hits from huge fan bases.

These have no merit.

Exactly it's sure funny that Eklund is the only one linking Fowler to Toronto and Shattenkirk to Montreal none of the other insiders are mentioning either deal here. Eklund is looking for hits on his site nothing more nothing less.

 

[Liferleafer]

I don't agree with idea that the Ducks will take less for Fowler due to the cap situation. I think a few teams would figure out how to fit him in.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Your initial and dogged stance has been that this is a no brainer trade because on paper the leafs defense is bad and that upgrading the D with Fowler rather than retaining JVR will make them better now. This has been based on the pillar that an effective d-core is more important than the drop off in offensive talent.

The counter, and application of the Pens point, is that the Leafs organization and fans feel like the d will be more effective than it shows on paper (through the mix of players, a couple wildcards stepping up, systems and team play), effective enough that in short term filling that hole in the short term at the cost of JVR may not be the smartest move given the state and direction of the team. The details don't invalidate it all, the details are just a gamble that you disagree with. All signs point to there being high expectations on Zaitsev and Carrick within the Leafs org. If in their eyes the group they have can be effective relative to team goals for the season than it becomes JVR+ effective d vs. more effective d and no jvr, which then boils down to assessing both the fit and replacibility of JVR vs. Fowler long-term, which will be easier to sign etc.

I'm actually less against moving Reilly to the right than most, I'd just rather not do it yet.

The counter and application of the Pens point is actually a point in favor of making the trade. Who is the winger in Pittsburgh that is the equivalent to JVR? There is none because they don't have that kind of player and it doesn't impact their ability to win. They also have a reliable group of guys that know how to move the puck. Your explanations are still too vague for what it actually is. If there are high expectations of Zaitsev and Carrick within the management that are legitimate and not just lip service, they are already headed for issues because even if they're legitimate, you don't throw them into the top four right off the bat. It's just not a good idea for their development. You also pretty much mislead the comparison by saying it's JVR + effective d-man for more effective d-man + no JVR. One, it's misleading to believe that their current d-man in that spot with JVR is going to be effective and it's misleading that they wouldn't have a forward replacement that couldn't be effective especially with all the young talent the Leafs have up front.

As for not moving Rielly to the right...yet. They've already done it effectively. It's whether it continues or not.

 

[JetsHomer]

We are not trading Fowler for something that doesn't do well at helping us win now. Anything short of a good enough main piece to help us win now won't get it done.

So then which of Lindholm and Rakell gets move then? Ducks can't afford all three, even if they could somehow manage it under the cap

 

[Pinkfloyd]

So then which of Lindholm and Rakell gets move then? Ducks can't afford all three, even if they could somehow manage it under the cap

Of course the Ducks can afford all three under the cap. It's their budget that prevents it. I don't think the Ducks will move for someone that would make one think they could help immediately simply because there are good odds that they'll need to take a cheap forward back and hope it works. I'm thinking maybe they'll move Despres to New Jersey for one of their forwards of a similar age.

 

[dracom]

No one is saying Ducks will give him free. But there isn't any team with urgent need for a top-4. Unless Lindholm signs QO or a bridge deal (not likely), Ducks need to shed salary. That basically also limits the type of return for Fowler.

BM has no leverage - at all. It affects the negotiations with other teams. For example Sabres and Montreal reportedly balked at giving top-10 pick. There is little Murray can do for it. Tim Murray just traded for another d-man - he had options. The more time rolls on, the less options Murray will have.

It's funny how you think it was the Sabres and Habs that "balked" at the idea of trading a top 10 pick when there's no evidence to support it. Just making assumptions as usual.

I'm just going to keep going back to the Freddy trade. Everyone thought we wouldn't get anything good if we traded, Toronto fans said they would never give up a 1st for Freddy for multiple reason; but guess what, we got a 1st, 2nd, and Bernier for Freddy.

So maybe, just maybe, teams with valuable players who are looking to trade said player will still get a return that helps their team.

 

[Liferleafer]

The counter and application of the Pens point is actually a point in favor of making the trade. Who is the winger in Pittsburgh that is the equivalent to JVR? There is none because they don't have that kind of player and it doesn't impact their ability to win. They also have a reliable group of guys that know how to move the puck. Your explanations are still too vague for what it actually is. If there are high expectations of Zaitsev and Carrick within the management that are legitimate and not just lip service, they are already headed for issues because even if they're legitimate, you don't throw them into the top four right off the bat. It's just not a good idea for their development. You also pretty much mislead the comparison by saying it's JVR + effective d-man for more effective d-man + no JVR. One, it's misleading to believe that their current d-man in that spot with JVR is going to be effective and it's misleading that they wouldn't have a forward replacement that couldn't be effective especially with all the young talent the Leafs have up front.

As for not moving Rielly to the right...yet. They've already done it effectively. It's whether it continues or not.

Zaitsev is 24 years old, he's been playing in the KHL since 2009...against men. His last 2 seasons:
57 games 32 points +27
46 games 26 points +21

I'm not saying he is a NHL top 4 shoe in...but he's not exactly a rookie. As far as Carrick...

Rielly/Marincin
Gardiner/Zaitsev
Polak/Hunwick/Carrick/Corrado

Carrick won't be "expected" to play top 4...if he earns it, great. What you also need to remember is this is year 2 of the Shanaplan...nobody is expecting this team to make the playoffs...a marginal improvement is what we are looking at.

 

[Liferleafer]

It's funny how you think it was the Sabres and Habs that "balked" at the idea of trading a top 10 pick when there's no evidence to support it. Just making assumptions as usual.

I'm just going to keep going back to the Freddy trade. Everyone thought we wouldn't get anything good if we traded, Toronto fans said they would never give up a 1st for Freddy for multiple reason; but guess what, we got a 1st, 2nd, and Bernier for Freddy.

So maybe, just maybe, teams with valuable players who are looking to trade said player will still get a return that helps their team.

I'm not sure where the idea of the Ducks selling low on Fowler is coming from. As i said earlier, i'm sure there is a number of teams who would easily make room (and offer value) for Fowler.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Zaitsev is 24 years old, he's been playing in the KHL since 2009...against men. His last 2 seasons:
57 games 32 points +27
46 games 26 points +21

I'm not saying he is a NHL top 4 shoe in...but he's not exactly a rookie. As far as Carrick...

Rielly/Marincin
Gardiner/Zaitsev
Polak/Hunwick/Carrick/Corrado

Carrick won't be "expected" to play top 4...if he earns it, great. What you also need to remember is this is year 2 of the Shanaplan...nobody is expecting this team to make the playoffs...a marginal improvement is what we are looking at.

Playing in the KHL is not playing in the NHL. They don't all make it here just because they played against men there. With the differences between there and here, he is still a rookie and you're trying to justify a rookie in the top four. One obviously wouldn't and that's a good thing but neither should.