Leafs desperately need secondary scoring

[Jimmy Firecracker]

 

[zeke]

Last Year

Top 4: 150gl pace
Mid 4: 65gl pace
Bot 4: 53gl pace
Defense: 14gl pace

This year:

Top-4: 136gl pace
Mid-4: 49gl pace
Bot-4: 28gl pace
Defense: 6gl pace

Every level of the team's scoring is off the pace, really.

 

[zeke]

but do their broadcasts have that amazing "CORE FOUR GOALS" counter that our broadcasts can't live without???

 

[Nylanderthal]

I agree. The third line is designed specifically to shut down, which has been admirable in their minutes, but provides little to no offense. Engvall only seems to score when he comes back from a benching, then cools right off offensively. Joey Anderson has shown an ability to score goals at the AHL level, as well as being a solid two-way player who forechecks hard. Hard to tinker with 7 wins in 8 games, but I'd like to see Anderson get a game in Engvall's spot. Anderson being a RW would create some shuffle. Nylander goes to his off wing like he's capable of, and Kase gets a promotion to try and show his old 20 goal form. Reshuffle:
Nylander-Matthews-Kase
Bunting-Tavares-Marner
Kerfoot-Kampf-Anderson
Ritchie-Spezza-Simmonds

Think this could unleash Kase, who has more goal scoring potential than Kerfoot in the top 6 imo. And Anderson could help add offense to that third line, while keeping that third line fast, and defensively responsible still.

I think you need to see Kerfoot either play with Nylander or play in the top six, it’s become fairly evident that he has the skill and chemistry to play higher up the lineup or with more talented guys in general.
For me the solution is spreading tbe elite talent around 3 lines and load up a shutdown 4th line with kampf Engvall & mik when he’s back.
Xx Matthews Kase
Xx Tavares Marner
Xx Kerfoot Nylander
Engvall kampf Soup
Ritchie Spezza Simmer & Bunting fill out as needed on the left side.

 

[Nylanderthal]

but do their broadcasts have that amazing "CORE FOUR GOALS" counter that our broadcasts can't live without???

Last night centre ice only gave me the SNW flames broadcast with Rick Ball & Greg Millen filling in as colour.
Was refreshing to hear someone talk about the leafs like they’re actually a good team with elite players who are playing well.
I swear our broadcasts even do their best to antagonize the fan base

 

[nuck]

As long as they have Kampf in the #3 spot that line can't produce. As they say on the Hawks board, he creates low event hockey at both ends of the ice. They have had ample opportunity to move Spezza to the #3 spot and have made it clear they have no intention of doing this, even after the Tavares injury in the playoff. I think unless Kampf gets hurt he is there until the last 20 of the season and they will decide if they can carry a 2 goal #3 into the playoffs. They knew what they were getting when they signed him and were content to protect Kerfoot to use as a mostly winger. Semyonov is around but I don't think he gets a real hard look as long as Kampf is healthy and they are winning some games.

Once again the Marner usage is a bit concerning to me but 10th overall in TOI is better than 1st. However why not trade his pk minutes to Engvall and Kase and let him have more es time? Ritchie has been good for 10+g a year so Keefe needs to use him in a way that gets him producing. It will happen or he will be gone.

I think the D will come around a bit as the lack of goals seems like a bunch of individuals just in a trough at the same time. The only D they have who is really a threat for a 1g season is Brodie.

I don't like the structure of the lineup but except for the big 4 usage there is not much that can't evolve as the season progresses.

 

[zeke]

Last night centre ice only gave me the SNW flames broadcast with Rick Ball & Greg Millen filling in as colour.
Was refreshing to hear someone talk about the leafs like they’re actually a good team with elite players who are playing well.
I swear our broadcasts even do their best to antagonize the fan base

They certainly do.

 

[Nylanderthal]

you’re probably right and won’t stay that low but the problem is everyone said that over their slump. Now here we are 15 games and approaching the quarter mark and still that low.

Maybe this is the team they are this year. They are trying to grind out and win low scoring games. They’re playing playoff hockey.

Keefe continually hammers home the point of being ready to play the right way when it matters most, so I can see them intentionally enforcing this play style thru the season so when it comes playoff time no one is uncomfortable with what’s expected of them or with how the games going to be played

 

[Mess]

If you keep cutting out of the middle while the high priced core 4 remain the same, and you keep bottom filling with bargain bin shopping then this is the expect outcome that expected offense will decline. Every year Leafs attempt to swap around the depth pieces thinking it solves their problem, but it doesn't.

You can't keep doing the same things over and over again and expecting better results.

Zach Hyman was on a 30 goal pace for the Leafs and a consistent top 6 player ... If he leaves for $5.5 mil and you spend $6.2 mil on his replacements Bunting, Kase, Kampf and Ritchie and combined they have 7 goals after 13 games and Zach has 8 goals himself this year, you can help explain the fallout from this cap management strategy as just one example.

Hyman loss also explains the goal reduction of Matthews and Marner his former linemates. You simply can't dump a player like Ritchie or Bunting into your top 6 and expect to get top 6 numbers from them simply by playing with good players, and they will put a downward drag of former stats based on their abilities.

I personally believe the solution is to attempt to create an effective top 9 offensive attack and that means balancing out your core 4 over 3 lines not stacking top 2 lines, with 1 X $11 mil player on their own lines to drive offense. IMO

PS..Leafs have been very fortunate this year with injuries and only missed a few man games, while some teams have been ravished by Covid and injuries early on that really test a teams depth. If its all hands on deck and you're struggling to get secondary scoring, then that is only going to possibly get worse one injuries which are inevitable arrive and your filling with more Marlies.

 

[Gallagbi]

Boston is going to fall back to the pack this year. Peple always think those veteran teams like the conference finals Ottawa Senators, the Babcock Red Wings, the Doug Wilson Sharks will contend forever and then one day you realize they've taken on too much water, the gambles don't work, the core isn't the same, everyone looks old all of a sudden. That's Boston this year.

I'd argue they were a pack team last year and I wouldn't be surprised to see them fighting for the last wild card. But they do always seem to start slow, so maybe I'm just overreaching early in hopes that it's true

 

[Morbo]

blueline is the issue. has a domino effect on the forwards.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

How are each of those 4 paid in comparison to the leafs? Or more importantly what is the cap hits of the 'rest'. I would think the leafs top 4 is the highest by a decent amount with rest the leafs probably being paid less than their peers.

 

[Nylanderthal]

I just turned on the Bruins Devils game, and what do they talk about the first five minutes? Depth scoring, or lack there of. It’s a league wide issue for teams, especially ones with top end talent. Almost as if the hard cap has implications on roster building

 

[Lauro]

This. There is no issue at all.

 

[Trapper]

If you keep cutting out of the middle while the high priced core 4 remain the same, and you keep bottom filling with bargain bin shopping then this is the expect outcome that expected offense will decline. Every year Leafs attempt to swap around the depth pieces thinking it solves their problem, but it doesn't.

You can't keep doing the same things over and over again and expecting better results.

Zach Hyman was on a 30 goal pace for the Leafs and a consistent top 6 player ... If he leaves for $5.5 mil and you spend $6.2 mil on his replacements Bunting, Kase, Kampf and Ritchie and combined they have 7 goals after 13 games and Zach has 8 goals himself this year, you can help explain the fallout from this cap management strategy as just one example.

Hyman loss also explains the goal reduction of Matthews and Marner his former linemates. You simply can't dump a player like Ritchie or Bunting into your top 6 and expect to get top 6 numbers from them simply by playing with good players, and they will put a downward drag of former stats based on their abilities.

I personally believe the solution is to attempt to create an effective top 9 offensive attack and that means balancing out your core 4 over 3 lines not stacking top 2 lines, with 1 X $11 mil player on their own lines to drive offense. IMO

PS..Leafs have been very fortunate this year with injuries and only missed a few man games, while some teams have been ravished by Covid and injuries early on that really test a teams depth. If its all hands on deck and you're struggling to get secondary scoring, then that is only going to possibly get worse one injuries which are inevitable arrive and your filling with more Marlies.

Like many have suggested here, the ability to spread offense through a top 9 may come down to placing individuals on 3 different lines.

Matthews can score and should have his own line.

Tavares can score and can have his own line.

Nylander should captain a 3rd line as he has proven the ability to score and can get away from top competition at the same time.

That leaves Marner an assist man who can take turns on lines with Matthews/JT as a rover.

 

[Stephen]

If you keep cutting out of the middle while the high priced core 4 remain the same, and you keep bottom filling with bargain bin shopping then this is the expect outcome that expected offense will decline. Every year Leafs attempt to swap around the depth pieces thinking it solves their problem, but it doesn't.

You can't keep doing the same things over and over again and expecting better results.

I'd argue that you can - but your margin of error year to year is very small, and then compounded by the fact that you can't afford to keep the home run roster finds if you do manage to find them. The Florida Panthers roster upgrades over the past couple of years have been based on finding these successes: Duclair, Verhaeghe, Bennett, Marchment. Built a supporting cast out of nothing but reclamations.

I feel like the Leafs main problem has been identifying the right talent without any cogent plan after acquiring them. Wasted time acquiring guys like Petan and Malgin without any kind of plan to integrate them into the program - if they were ever good enough. Or went with the veteran babysitter approach and left Corey Perry on the sidelines. KHL guys have mostly been duds. And the "13th forward project" seems to bring on some pretty non descript guys year after year.

 

[zeke]

The Florida Panthers roster upgrades over the past couple of years have been based on finding these successes: Duclair, Verhaeghe, Bennett, Marchment. Built a supporting cast out of nothing but reclamations.

I'd wait a bit longer before using the Panthers as your model of success tbh.

 

[Shooter2x]

If I get A's last year and then start off with a string of C+'s in my next year , I need to get better and stop messing up the questions. I wasn't unlucky. This coddling mentality is why we lose to ugly teams in the playoffs. As a team they need to accept it as garbage finish and fix it. Not "nothing to see here, just bad luck". It's black and white lack of finish that might cost us the division now in the same way it cost us the last two playoff series. It's not good enough to keep pace with the Panthers any more because of our lack of finish to begin. We have to be better than them from this point. If we started off the year with good finish it would be good enough now to just pace them and not have to worry about being better. Small sample is another coddling tactic. There is no such thing as small samples when the goal is winning the division in the Atlantic. Rules are different when youre in the land of the elite. Finish second and you're forced to go through two conference finals minimum before you get to the stanley cup finals. This winning streak is making people soft. Winning the division and the cup are the only 2 goals so there's no such thing as bad luck. Just get things done. Hockey is as simple as scoring more goals than your opponent once that 60th minute hits.

 

[ULF_55]

If I get A's last year and then start off with a string of C+'s in my next year , I need to get better and stop messing up the questions. I wasn't unlucky. This coddling mentality is why we lose to ugly teams in the playoffs. As a team they need to accept it as garbage finish and fix it. Not "nothing to see here, just bad luck".

It's black and white lack of finish that might cost us the division now in the same way it cost us the last two playoff series. It's not good enough to keep pace with the Panthers any more because of our lack of finish to begin. We have to be better than them from this point. If we started off the year with good finish it would be good enough now to just pace them and not have to worry about being better.

Small sample is another coddling tactic. There is no such thing as small samples when the goal is winning the division in the Atlantic.

Rules are different when youre in the land of the elite. Finish second and you're forced to go through two conference finals minimum before you get to the stanley cup finals. This winning streak is making people soft.

Winning the division and the cup are the only 2 goals so there's no such thing as bad luck. Just get things done. Hockey is as simple as scoring more goals than your opponent once that 60th minute hits.

Starting by winning your first 9-10 games doesn't really mean a lot once the playoffs begin.


Past 10 games.

 

[Trapper]

How are each of those 4 paid in comparison to the leafs? Or more importantly what is the cap hits of the 'rest'. I would think the leafs top 4 is the highest by a decent amount with rest the leafs probably being paid less than their peers.

When you set an unprecedented paying 3 forwards double digits and have half the cap on 4 forwards you are inviting everyone to come out and pick over the team with a fine tooth comb. Add in the fact that it’s Toronto and you should have known the repercussions.

Remember when this was supposed to be a safe place to play?
Dubas in fact by his very philosophy may have made it unsafe due to the salary + expectation level.

 

[al secord]

Define desperate...

 

[Leafsfan74]

Secondary scoring is proving to be a major issue through the first 15 games of the season. The big 4 are accounting for the majority of our goals so far this year. Maybe this is a piece that a guy like Holl could be moved for?

How does Dubas address this?

Oddly, at the start of the year it was the secondary scoring that was carrying this team that was off to a rocky start.

A "balanced lineup" is never going to equate to balanced scoring in a Cap system. When I see the 4th Line cycling behind the opponents net, taking it to the front with authority, throwing checks, creating problems for the opposition, it's a momentous sign for teams broader identity. Goals are generated organically off of such work. Every team is top heavy, balance up and down the lineup is key.

I'd say this team has achieved some degree of balance as Keefe is comfortable moving players around as he deems the situation warranting such moves. It's not as balanced as I would like it to be that's for certain and I still see potential tweaks down the road as needed (Ho-Sang promotion?). I'm sure Leafs management wishes the Cap were $5M higher also.

 

[notbias]

How are each of those 4 paid in comparison to the leafs? Or more importantly what is the cap hits of the 'rest'. I would think the leafs top 4 is the highest by a decent amount with rest the leafs probably being paid less than their peers.

Why does this matter? This would just mean our secondary scoring is outperforming their contracts or the other teams are underperforming theirs. Really don't understand everyone's obsession with the cap hit of each player, every team (minus Tampa last year) has 81.5 million to use.

 

[Leafsfan74]

Was thinking about this last night.

From an outside in perspective, over the last 3 full seasons played (~93 team seasons) 42 teams finished with 240 goals or more, 12 with 270 or more. So rough barometer 240 = solidly top half offensive team, 270+ in the top 4 teams in the league.

Looking at what we "should" get from the Big 4 - Matthews 50, Tavares and Nylander 35 a piece, Marner 25, that's 145, and likely a conservative number. Then 15 each from Bunting and Kerfoot to round out the top 6 takes us to a conservative 175. Rielly and Muzzin good for 15 between them, that's 190. So we're to 50-80 goals from the bottom 6F,bottom 4D, call ups, and spares. Currently have 9 in 15 games, while missing Mikheyev, Simmonds being snakebit, Ritchie showing why he's known as an inconsistent player, Sandin and Liljegren getting aclimated as everyday players. Even at that current pace (that we all think is too low for that group, that's another 40 goals, taking us to 49 from the depth, bang on top half of the league.

From the inside out, I think that we've quietly (and perhaps temporarily) acknowledged the cap situation caused by the star allocation and shifted gears to a pure traditional top 6 / bottom 6. Two high end first lines, a shut down line, and a heavy line, rather than trying to have 4 line deep offense. I think that there's still hope that the depth steps up (particularly Kase and Ritchie), but if you didn't like our F groups versatility and lack of line identity before- that's been addressed.

That being said, I think getting Mik back on the 3rd line could be a boost, and I'd like to see cheap 4C brought in to push Spezza to RW and have a rotation with him and Simmonds

A well stated post. There is great value in having such "balance" as I refer to it. Many teams have won the Cup with two scoring lines, some relying on just one if the rest of the team can play a responsible game.

A reliable shutdown line, a 4th line that can be flexible in throwing checks, creating havok and even just playing a zero sum game, especially on the road when teams have the last change and the 4th Line is facing a top line.

In such circumstances is a coach really concerned about offensive production when his 4th line is facing a McDavid or Mackinnon line? Clearly not. He'd take a nice, quiet shift in the neutral zone all day.

 

[ULF_55]

It was nice the depth scoring tied the game last night.