Leafs desperately need secondary scoring

[zeke]

 

[Mess]

It’s funny how many people wanted a team that can shutdown defensively and grind out wins. Dubas delivers and everyone’s unhappy because they want a high scoring team.

"Defense wins Championships" so there is nothing wrong with playing a sound defensive game, but that doesn't mean only Leafs core 4 can carry the entire offense.

 

[zeke]

optimistic.

He’ll need to score on the PP.

And he didn’t last year

Last year he scored at a 30gl pace.

 

[SprDaVE]

Something tells me they won't stay that low

 

[hockeynorth]

I do like this, but I also think there's a point where they're not just unlucky anymore. They need to finish.

 

[Gallagbi]

I'm curious, what's your read on Boston's season so far? Scoring above expectations, with a low S% and poor(ish) goaltending. They seem to be the oddity every time I'm looking at numbers today

 

[Jojalu]

It.s a bit of an issue, but here are the goal totals and % for other top teams' top 4.

Bruins Top 4 19 Rest 12 % 61
Flames 26 18 59
Oilers 37 16 68
Isles 19 8 70
Lightning 22 14 61
Jets 27 15 64

Some teams that have good balance..

Hurricanes 20 22 47
Panthers 26 28 48
Avs 20 20 50

The Leafs are in no way in a unique situation (very similar to the belief they are the only team up to the cap).

 

[Trapper]

Something tells me they won't stay that low

It won’t stay that low over 82 games, trouble is all your expected goals, on pace for and everything else goes out the window in a 7 game series. Unsustainable becomes goodbye if Matthews/Tavares/Nylander aren’t scoring post season.

 

[ottomaddox]

Secondary scoring is proving to be a major issue through the first 15 games of the season. The big 4 are accounting for the majority of our goals so far this year. Maybe this is a piece that a guy like Holl could be moved for?

How does Dubas address this?

I was going to start a thread but with a much stronger title: "Too many freaking passengers!".

They have to try everything:

Move Dermott
Promote Prospects
Etc.

Bolstering the depth will be a major thing at the deadline. I just don't want our horses to burn put for the playoffs. That includes Campbell too.

As of now contributions from anyone who's not JT, MM, AM, and WN is not there. That includes our defense and Bunting/Kerfoot. Has to be better for the Reg. and up for it in the playoffs.

 

[Havoc]

I do like this, but I also think there's a point where they're not just unlucky anymore. They need to finish.

The finish has been baddddddddd (I don't expect it to remain this bad). Bad luck has nothing to do with it. I've watched every second of every game like many others here so it's hard to really say it's unlucky at this point.




If Nylander made this play, the shot from whoever he passed it to won't even hit the net.

 

[Cecithepylon]

Need steeves

 

[SprDaVE]

It won’t stay that low over 82 games, trouble is all your expected goals, on pace for and everything else goes out the window in a 7 game series. Unsustainable becomes goodbye if Matthews/Tavares/Nylander aren’t scoring post season.

Last year they were well above expected goals and had a very high shooting percentage for the first half of the season. It's typical in a season where the majority of teams go through ups and downs at different points.

Maybe this team can finally peak at the right time.

 

[Apex Predator]

It won’t stay that low over 82 games, trouble is all your expected goals, on pace for and everything else goes out the window in a 7 game series. Unsustainable becomes goodbye if Matthews/Tavares/Nylander aren’t scoring post season.

you’re probably right and won’t stay that low but the problem is everyone said that over their slump. Now here we are 15 games and approaching the quarter mark and still that low.

Maybe this is the team they are this year. They are trying to grind out and win low scoring games. They’re playing playoff hockey.

 

[hockeynorth]

The finish has been baddddddddd (I don't expect it to remain this bad). Bad luck has nothing to do with it. I've watched every second of every game like many others here so it's hard to really say it's unlucky at this point.




If Nylander made this play, the shot from whoever he passed it to won't even hit the net.

Matthews flubbed the puck so many times last night

 

[Stephen]

The finish has been baddddddddd. Bad luck has nothing to do with it. I've watched every second of every game like many others here so it's hard to really say it's unlucky at this point.




If Nylander made this play, the shot from whoever he passed it to won't even hit the net.

Two of my critiques with the Leafs offensive zone 'domination' is we're often looking at defenses that collapse to middle of the slot and we cycle around the perimeter instead of being able to pull apart seams. And secondly, their spacing just looks wrong a lot of the time. Scramble plays, everyone's clumped together, nobody is looking to get open for that backdoor play, weird body positions and looking at the net at strange angles. Some of it's hands, some of it is desire to hold the puck longer so they're turning away from traffic.

 

[Stephen]

Matthews flubbed the puck so many times last night

The Matthews OT winner was great but it will probably gloss over a lot of the bad puck control and turnovers Matthews himself made last night. Work in progress.

 

[notbias]

I do like this, but I also think there's a point where they're not just unlucky anymore. They need to finish.

That point is not 15 games in.

The NYR game probably accounts for like half of those missed goals anyway.

 

[SprDaVE]

The finish has been baddddddddd (I don't expect it to remain this bad). Bad luck has nothing to do with it. I've watched every second of every game like many others here so it's hard to really say it's unlucky at this point.




If Nylander made this play, the shot from whoever he passed it to won't even hit the net.

The Leafs have been a consistent top 5ish shooting team in the league. Right now they are bottom 5. This is not explained by just losing Zach Hyman and they certainly have not all of a sudden been bad at scoring goals.

There is something to say about the team likely playing less high danger hockey and they want to play a safer game, which opens less opportunities to score (especially from the D)... but everything points to this team just going through a cold streak from a lot of players, which is basically being unlucky.

They generate the same amount of shots and chances but right now they are not going in. Throughout a season, most teams go through that. We're in that it feels like.

 

[Havoc]

The Leafs have been a consistent top 5ish shooting team in the league. Right now they are bottom 5. This is not explained by just losing Zach Hyman and they certainly have not all of a sudden been bad at scoring goals.

There is something to say about the team likely playing less high danger hockey and they want to play a safer game, which opens less opportunities to score... but everything points to this team just going through a cold streak from a lot of players, which is basically being unlucky.

Unlucky for us. They're the professionals playing so have to unfortunately label the finish straight up bad at the moment. Cold streaks are usually the players fault we don't reward anyone for inconsistency. But you are 100% correct this won't be the norm.

 

[SprDaVE]

Unlucky for us. They're the professionals playing so have to unfortunately label the finish straight up bad at the moment. Cold streaks are usually the players fault we don't reward anyone for inconsistency. But you are 100% correct this won't be the norm.

Whatever label you want to slap on this -- it doesn't matter. I think we can agree they are playing well in terms of creating chances, playing with effort and playing up to the level we expect from them. I do agree they need to score and it is becoming very frustrating. But we have at least 4 players well below their expected scoring... that's pretty freaking unlucky.

 

[Havoc]

Whatever label you want to slap on this -- it doesn't matter. I think we can agree they are playing well in terms of creating chances, playing with effort and playing up to the level we expect from them. I do agree they need to score and it is becoming very frustrating. But we have at least 4 players well below their expected scoring... that's pretty freaking unlucky.

Yeah for sure, the "bad" is only in reference to the finish. I have no beef with the team at this moment.

 

[zeke]

I'm curious, what's your read on Boston's season so far? Scoring above expectations, with a low S% and poor(ish) goaltending. They seem to be the oddity every time I'm looking at numbers today

Honestly I am not looking too much into any numbers yet....I'll wait until at least 20gms in before even making a real first impression.

But just looking now - unsurprisingly they're still great by xgf% at even strength so they're still really good.

Don't see why they would be much different than last year really at least in terms of skaters.

But I'm not surprised to see them with sub par goalies - Ullmark's numbers looked inflated by high shot volume in Buffalo.

 

[zeke]

The finish has been baddddddddd (I don't expect it to remain this bad). Bad luck has nothing to do with it. I've watched every second of every game like many others here so it's hard to really say it's unlucky at this point.




If Nylander made this play, the shot from whoever he passed it to won't even hit the net.

The finish has been bad, yes. (They especially miss the net a ton on great chances).

But it's actually really easy to still say it's unlucky in this small a sample.

 

[Stephen]

I'm curious, what's your read on Boston's season so far? Scoring above expectations, with a low S% and poor(ish) goaltending. They seem to be the oddity every time I'm looking at numbers today

Boston is going to fall back to the pack this year. Peple always think those veteran teams like the conference finals Ottawa Senators, the Babcock Red Wings, the Doug Wilson Sharks will contend forever and then one day you realize they've taken on too much water, the gambles don't work, the core isn't the same, everyone looks old all of a sudden. That's Boston this year.

 

[Havoc]

The finish has been bad, yes. (They especially miss the net a ton on great chances).

But it's actually really easy to still say it's unlucky in this small a sample.

I guess I see it as, if Keefe is in the room with the guys and he's doing a 15 game report listing the pros and cons, "finish" would be in the cons list and something they need to clean up. Unlucky just doesn't work for me since some of these chances should have been goals which means there is some level of good versus bad at play here. Not sure if anything happened with some of the chances that made the player unlucky. They need to share some responsibility.

But yeah we all agree this is just temporary so it doesn't really matter what we label it we're all on the same page at the end of the day.