Leafs desperately need secondary scoring

[zeke]

My biggest concern is we've seen Keefe going with the Tavares-Matthews-Marner line a few times already this year when we've needed offense and it's done absolutely nothing.

You pay 3 guys 11 million each you better get your money's worth out of them and when you put them all together they need to dominate.

here's our 4 best line combos (min 5min) by xgf/60:

Tavares-Matthews-Nylander (6:13): 10.32xgf/60 (18.62gf/60)
Tavares-Matthews-Marner (9:43): 7.22xgf/60 (0.00gf/60)
Engvall-Spezza-Simmonds (17:22): 5.49xgf/60 (6.74gf/60)
Nylander-Matthews-Marner (13:19): 4.19xgf/60 (4.46gf/60)

 

[VanW27]

here's our 4 best line combos (min 5min) by xgf/60:

Tavares-Matthews-Nylander (6:13): 10.32xgf/60 (18.62gf/60)
Tavares-Matthews-Marner (9:43): 7.22xgf/60 (0.00gf/60)
Engvall-Spezza-Simmonds (17:22): 5.49xgf/60 (6.74gf/60)
Nylander-Matthews-Marner (13:19): 4.19xgf/60 (4.46gf/60)

So Zero goals for the $33 million trio as a unit, thanks for confirming they've done nothing.

 

[Kurtz]

Craig Button said secondary scoring isn’t required and pointed to Tampa’s Cup run last year as proof.

So far this season, our forwards have generated a total of 96 points. Our top 4 generated 56 points (58%)

Last playoffs, Tampa's top 4 forwards generated 90 out of 158 forward points (57%)

The year before, their top 4 forwards generated 99 out of 157 forward points (63%)

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Tavares-Matthews-Marner (9:43): 7.22xgf/60 (0.00gf/60)

Is that 0.00 a typo ?

 

[Menzinger]

To put things in perspectives

 

[kb]

Hyman has 8 goals in 13 games = 50 goal pace his replacements X 4 = 44 goal pace.

 

[Fogelhund]

Is that 0.00 a typo ?

No... in the total of 9 minutes that the trio played together, they didn't score.... it's very small sample.

 

[kb]

Weird to be worrying about secondary scoring during an 8-1 run....

 

[nuck]

To put things in perspectives

Also only 2 less points than Matthews ($11.634M 6-6-12) To be fair his pp60 right now is 50% above his career high and better than Draisaitl or Ranta finished last season so is likely not sustainable. But what if it is? Spezza's ES production rate last season was better than his prime years in Ottawa.

 

[lebdafor norris]

Weird to be worrying about secondary scoring during an 8-1 run....

Helps that Jack Campbell is putting up Hasek like numbers. But lets be real, the Leafs which have been 2nd in the league in goals for per game during the last 3 seasons combined is now currently 25th in the category for this season, the offence is certainly being carried by the defence and Campbell right now.

 

[zeke]

Helps that Jack Campbell is putting up Hasek like numbers. But lets be real, the Leafs which have been 2nd in the league in goals for per game during the last 3 seasons combined is now currently 25th in the category for this season, the offence is certainly being carried by the defence and Campbell right now.

Interesting is that the underlying numbers suggest that the offense is still elite (#2 xgf/60) while it's the defense that's been more of a worry so far (a mediocre #16xga/60, though with a very good #6 PK).

 

[Fogelhund]

Interesting is that the underlying numbers suggest that the offense is still elite (#2 xgf/60) while it's the defense that's been more of a worry so far (a mediocre #16xga/60, though with a very good #6 PK).

Noting we have 2.63 GA/G so far this year, compared to 2.64 GA/G last year.

What's interesting there, is that our expected offense is elite, but execution and finishing isn't there, while our expected defense isn't, but the execution and stopping is exceeding expectations.

If we can just find a way to start finishing more, which should happen, while maintaining the GA, we will do just fine.

 

[SprDaVE]

Interesting is that the underlying numbers suggest that the offense is still elite (#2 xgf/60) while it's the defense that's been more of a worry so far (a mediocre #16xga/60, though with a very good #6 PK).

The regression of Holl and Muzzin have made things a little harder defensively. Also not playing against bad offensive teams over and over again like Calgary, Montreal and Ottawa.

 

[zeke]

Noting we have 2.63 GA/G so far this year, compared to 2.64 GA/G last year.

What's interesting there, is that our expected offense is elite, but execution and finishing isn't there, while our expected defense isn't, but the execution and stopping is exceeding expectations.

If we can just find a way to start finishing more, which should happen, while maintaining the GA, we will do just fine.

The defense has slipped a bit from last year - especially the top-4 dmen. Thankfully Sandin-Liljegren has been a big upgrade on Dermott-Bogosian to help keep it at a decent level. Still, we need the top-4 to continue to round into form again, because imo that's been the biggest concern so far this year.

The goals against have stayed the same because we're no longer giving over half our starts to sub-.900 goaltending like we did last year. The goaltending overall hasn't been elite so far but it's gone from around 20th last year to around 10th this year so far.


The offense outage sure looks mostly like a fluke thing so far. The numbers say we're creating as much dangerous offense as ever.

 

[zeke]

The regression of Holl and Muzzin have made things a little harder defensively. Also helps not to play against bad offensive teams over and over again like Calgary, Montreal and Ottawa (last year anyway).

I don't give Mo and Brodie a pass either tbh. All of the top-4 have been pretty poor so far (though better lately). Thankfully Sandin-Lilly has given the team a big boost on the bottom pair.

 

[Fogelhund]

The defense has slipped a bit from last year - especially the top-4 dmen. Thankfully Sandin-Liljegren has been a big upgrade on Dermott-Bogosian to help keep it at a decent level. Still, we need the top-4 to continue to round into form again, because imo that's been the biggest concern so far this year.

The goals against have stayed the same because we're no longer giving over half our starts to sub-.900 goaltending like we did last year. The goaltending overall hasn't been elite so far but it's gone from around 20th last year to around 10th this year so far.


The offense outage sure looks mostly like a fluke thing so far. The numbers say we're creating as much dangerous offense as ever.

I think the numbers are skewed a bit against us too defensively right now... we've had a few really bad games, given up 7 against Pittsburgh, 5 against LA... once we get those type of games locked down, our numbers will also come down.

Over the last nine games, we've also averaged 3.375 goals/game, which would put us in 4th in the league for scoring, at that rate.... So, maybe we are past that outage anyway, even without the bottom six producing enough??

 

[zeke]

I think the numbers are skewed a bit against us too defensively right now... we've had a few really bad games, given up 7 against Pittsburgh, 5 against LA... once we get those type of games locked down, our numbers will also come down.

Over the last nine games, we've also averaged 3.375 goals/game, which would put us in 4th in the league for scoring, at that rate.... So, maybe we are past that outage anyway, even without the bottom six producing enough??

I'm waiting until the 20gm mark before I really started to dial down into the numbers but that's nice to hear - 30 goals in our last 9 games (after only 13 in our first 7) sure seems like our offense is back on track.

let me take a quick look at those last 9gms...

Top-4: 20 goals (~180gl pace)
Mid-4: 8 goals (~70gl pace)
Bot-4: 0 goals (0gl pace)
Defense: 2 goals (~20gl pace)

Even depth-wise that's not so bad really. Take away 3 goals from the Top-4 (bring them down to around a 150gl pace) and give them to the Bottom-4 (bringing them up to around a 30gl pace) you pretty much have the expected distribution for the team for the year.

That's actually a nice relief - I didn't realize the offense had been clicking for that many games already.

 

[Gabriel426]

I'm waiting until the 20gm mark before I really started to dial down into the numbers but that's nice to hear - 30 goals in our last 9 games (after only 13 in our first 7) sure seems like our offense is back on track.

let me take a quick look at those last 9gms...

Top-4: 20 goals (~180gl pace)
Mid-4: 8 goals (~70gl pace)
Bot-4: 0 goals (0gl pace)
Defense: 2 goals (~20gl pace)

Even depth-wise that's not so bad really. Take away 3 goals from the Top-4 (bring them down to around a 150gl pace) and give them to the Bottom-4 (bringing them up to around a 30gl pace) you pretty much have the expected distribution for the team for the year.

That's actually a nice relief - I didn't realize the offense had been clicking for that many games already.

Is it realistic to expect the our top 4 to score 150-180 goals in a season? We’re they on pace to do that last season?

 

[zeke]

Is it realistic to expect the our top 4 to score 150-180 goals in a season? We’re they on pace to do that last season?

150 is a good target I think. they combined for precisely a 150 goal pace last year. 138 the year before. This year they're at a 133gl pace but that's with M&M off to a fairly slow start.

 

[Gabriel426]

150 is a good target I think. they combined for precisely a 150 goal pace last year. 138 the year before. This year they're at a 133gl pace but that's with M&M off to a fairly slow start.

150 goals for four players is tough though. For our four, that’s AM with 60, Willie and JT at 35 each and MM at 20.
I think all three JT, MM and AM are off to slow start this season.
Even with MCD and Drai, and whoever the next two in Edmonton, I don’t think they can get 150 goals.
Like you said, it is a good target to aim for.

 

[zeke]

150 goals for four players is tough though. For our four, that’s AM with 60, Willie and JT at 35 each and MM at 20.
I think all three JT, MM and AM are off to slow start this season.
Even with MCD and Drai, and whoever the next two in Edmonton, I don’t think they can get 150 goals.
Like you said, it is a good target to aim for.

over the last 3yrs, their paces:

Matthews 57
Tavares 33
Nylander 33
Marner 25

Total 148

So really, ~150 is what we should expect from them, pace wise.


This year so far they're only 3 goals off that pace, and that's with imo slow starts from M&M.

 

[hockeynorth]

To put things in perspectives

I didn't realize that at all

 

[Gabriel426]

over the last 3yrs, their paces:

Matthews 57
Tavares 33
Nylander 33
Marner 25

Total 148

So really, ~150 is what we should expect from them, pace wise.


This year so far they're only 3 goals off that pace, and that's with imo slow starts from M&M.

Thats interesting

 

[diehardleafsfan9878]

You know, the best part of this debate can easily be solved just by looking at the Olympics. It's weird, the players at the top of the lineup in the Olympics produce. The lower you get in the lineup the lower the point totals get.

 

[tmlms13]

I'm glad the OP raised this point. I don't think anyone has ever created a thread about the Leafs need secondary scoring.

Groundbreaking analysis.