Friedman: Leafs and Knies talking extension

[HockeyVirus]

Apples to apples instead of
Apples to carrots

With a little critical thinking, it's obvious that the actual number is not important. What was up for debate was why take X now when Y could be there in a few years, and I listed several recent examples of players who took X when they could have had Y.

The actual numbers are semantics irrelevant to the topic.

Also should note, we are clearly not talking comparables here so quit purposefully conflating the two to avoid admitting being wrong.

 

[Golden_Jet]

With a little critical thinking, it's obvious that the actual number is not important. What was up for debate was why take X now when Y could be there in a few years, and I listed several recent examples of players who took X when they could have had Y.

The actual numbers are semantics irrelevant to the topic.

Also should note, we are clearly not talking comparables here so quit purposefully conflating the two to avoid admitting being wrong.

I’m not wrong, you just won’t accept the L.
Like a lot of posters have tried to tell you.
Happens a lot in your own forum, to you.

I already said my thoughts, think it’s a bridge.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

I’m still here, I don’t know why we’re arguing lol. I think everybody is mostly on the same page about where his value would be right now.

I dunno either. You falsely claimed that I insinuated Knies was worth Faber/Slaf level contracts, balked at quoting where I said that, claiming you already had, and then abandoned ship when I pointed out the obvious mocking tone of my post and quoted a post on page one where I said Knies wasn't currently worth $5M...

It's OK to admit that you were wrong to claim I was insinuating Knies was worth Faber/Slaf.

With a little critical thinking, it's obvious that the actual number is not important. What was up for debate was why take X now when Y could be there in a few years, and I listed several recent examples of players who took X when they could have had Y.

The actual numbers are semantics irrelevant to the topic.

Also should note, we are clearly not talking comparables here so quit purposefully conflating the two to avoid admitting being wrong.

"It's obvious that the actual number is not important."

When you've been through the current Leafs era of contract negotiations, this is the mentality you develop lmao.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Signing a long term deal at a low dollar amount would be pretty dumb.
I think he’d likely bet on himself on a shorter term deal and then get paid later if he continues to progress.
The long term lower dollar deals really only work for established players who have already pretty much reached their ceilings.
I’d expect a bridge deal.

 

[PatriceBergeronFan]

Again, what do you think he is worth then? Easy to say all of this, tell me how much more than 4-5M he is worth on an 8 year deal if he signs it sometime in the next few weeks.

Question is why sign remotely close to 8 years? Standard bridge is 2-3 years.

 

[Strangle]

To me, the right "term" is 4 years. Give him the security of a $10m+ payday, locks him up through Matthews contract + a year, and keeps him as RFA status at the end (although we would of course be able to ride an arbitrartion award to UFA if things got nasty). Keeps the AAV down, and puts him in a position where he's negotiating his next deal at 26 years old.

That, or pay for a bit of extra term and do a 6 or 7 year deal that takes him to 28-29 years old -- still with an opportunity to earn another big payday.

If the bruins arent going to pay swayman $10m I don’t see the leafs paying knies that kind of money

 

[seanlinden]

If the bruins arent going to pay swayman $10m I don’t see the leafs paying knies that kind of money

I was referring to the concept of a 4 year, ~$4.5m deal, which would be a $18m payday for him.

 

[Hockey 4 Life]

A 4 or 5 year deal between 4.75 and 5.25 is the most likely scenario.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Because other Toronto players already took the money. No money left.

They have about 25.5 million coming off the books after this season between Marner, Tavares, McCabe and Hakanpa that's just those 4, that doesn't include anybody else just those 4.

That also doesn't include the cap going up.

as of today they have about 30 million in space after this season.

What are you talking about?

 

[Martin Skoula]

Wilson’s 2nd contract is probably the template, the cap’s gone up since then but Knies isn’t on the same level as a physical threat or a PK1 guy. Main thing that separates this from the other long term deals the higher end offensive talents have gotten recently is they have a safer expectation that they’ll land another big deal through their 30s under a higher cap, power forwards are at a higher risk of GMs getting scared off by all the Lucic types that fell off a cliff the season after signing their 28-30 year old contracts.

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

Leafs probably want to get a deal done with Head and Shoulders first.

After Knies, lock up Toes.

 

[oldwpgjet]

I will predict they might , just might be able to sign him 3 years at 5 mil. He looks to be the left wing on Matthews line or top six power left winger anyways. He is only going to get better, it would be ludicrous for him to sign long term unless they throw an obscene number at him, at least 8 I'm thinking and at that , the leafs may be getting a pretty good deal. I suspect he could get 10+ in a couple more seasons so why sign long term.

 

[saska sault]

They have about 25.5 million coming off the books after this season between Marner, Tavares, McCabe and Hakanpa that's just those 4, that doesn't include anybody else just those 4.

That also doesn't include the cap going up.

as of today they have about 30 million in space after this season.

What are you talking about?

If the Leafs let Marner and Tavares walk in free agency to gain cap space sure... not exactly a recipe for improving your team. If they plan to trade or resign them, then the cap space is a magical number until their or the replacements cap hits are sorted.

 

[FlyguyOX]

Knies would be stupid to sign long term right now.

 

[dukeofjive]

3 years between 4.5 to 5.5 a year.

 

[DrDangles]

8 years @ 4-5? Somebodys been playing too much EA NHL.

No way he signs away any UFA years, and highly doubtful his next deal is anything more than a 2-3 year bridge.

 

[GreatSaveEssensa]

And yet there are examples all over the league of players taking deals that end up being steals for years and years. So why can't the Leafs do that by overpaying NOW. Knies could never hit his potential or get badly injured and settle for a 1-2 year 1-2M deal.

Because Knies would say no. Pretty simple really.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

They have about 25.5 million coming off the books after this season between Marner, Tavares, McCabe and Hakanpa that's just those 4, that doesn't include anybody else just those 4.

That also doesn't include the cap going up.

as of today they have about 30 million in space after this season.

What are you talking about?

Unless you plan on letting one of Marner/Tavares go, those two easily eat up $20M+ of that $30M.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Unless you plan on letting one of Marner/Tavares go, those two easily eat up $20M+ of that $30M.

No they don't because there is no shot Tavares will make 11 million again.

And that's IF both came back and I'm not convinced either way.

 

[TS Quint]

8 years @ 4-5? Somebodys been playing too much EA NHL.

No way he signs away any UFA years, and highly doubtful his next deal is anything more than a 2-3 year bridge.

Knies should take $40m and run if he was ever offered that deal.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

No they don't because there is no shot Tavares will make 11 million again.

And that's IF both came back and I'm not convinced either way.

Tavares doesn't have to cost $11M again for he and Marner to cost the team $20M on the cap...

Unless you really think Marner will be talked into taking less money than he's getting now.

 

[Auston Marlander]

Hoepfully under 5M

He hasnt shown yet to be worth more than 4.5M or so with the deal likely being potential based

Other teams were able to get stud guys locked for undervalue deals due to them not having broken out so hopefully leafs can as well

6 years 4.5M is what I want

Do winning teams pay for potential or past success? I think part of managements job is your evaluate who will become a better player in the future, and lock them in long term to keep the price down. Paying older players who were great in the past, and are now declining hasn't proven a winning formula.

 

[Auston Marlander]

Don’t think he goes 6-8 years yet, he will want to see if he can have a big year, and make more coin.

Or he could Klingberg. It comes down to if the player thinks they can perform at a high enough level that taking a smaller bridge deal will be made up with future potential.

As a fan I hope he does 8 x 4-5, but it seems like he is a fairly confident player, so who knows. Also depends what his advisors are telling him.

 

[Community]

Tavares doesn't have to cost $11M again for he and Marner to cost the team $20M on the cap...

Unless you really think Marner will be talked into taking less money than he's getting now.

Even if Mitch re-signs for 12.5, JT is not getting near 7.5 on a new contract with the Leafs.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Even if Mitch re-signs for 12.5, JT is not getting near 7.5 on a new contract with the Leafs.

Then he'll be going somewhere else, I guess.

FWIW, I actually think that'd be a good call on the Leafs end, but JT can absolutely get $7.5M, if not more, on a 2-3 year deal.