Post-Game Talk: Leafs 3 Jets 2. Pavelec fails again.

[Soble]

There's a fine line between winning and losing in the NHL. One pickpocket, one horrifically dumb late penalty, one zinger to the top shelf, and goodnight. This was the first game in 8 that we'd been held under 3 goals.

This game was lost between the ringette line (top of circle) and blue line. Every PP we're on, teams simply apply pressure to our realistically non-pp D and we don't have the skill to react and take advantage. We're badly missing the B's and a fwd QB like a Stapleton. Of course, last two games we've had trouble penetrating the zone with any speed. Now watch our PK. No pressure between the blue line and ringette line which allows teams to setup and generate chances; yes, we're guarding against the grade A chances like cross crease passes, but....needs to be more than a 1 out of 10 on the aggression scale. If Stuart had stepped up on the GWG after Bozak dropped it....

And yes, it hurt 50x more since my 2 favourite teams lost - the Jets and whoever's playing the Leafs.

 

[Grind]

Why do i think you`ll still be saying this in 5 years. This team has shown zero improvement since the thrasher days. The numbers dont lie.

funnyou should say that, because all the numbers actually show they did improve over the thrashers last year...actually, almost EVERY number shows last year they were a better team then the thrashers.

2010- 2011
2.66 Goals a game, 20th in the league.
3.2 Goals Against, 30th in the league
.45 PP%, and 24th overall
Power Play, 12th, PK: 27th

2011-2012
2.7 Goals a game, 12 th in the league
2.95 Goals a game, 26th in the league(edited this, accidentally put 30)
.512 pp% and 22nd overall
PowerPlay: 12th, PK: 24th


Now, in 10 games this year, that's not the case. There GG is up but their GAA is the worst of the three years.

It'a also only 10 games.

6(?) games of which you have been missing 2 of your top 3. All 10 of which you've been missing one.

I'll say it again, any game we win with both buff and bogo out of the lineup is a bonus.

 

[Savardian Spinarama]

I can't believe how hard everyone is being on my beloved Jets.

We are playing without our best player (Buff).

We are playing without our best defenceman (Bogo).

We have discovered that we have another legitimate NHL D man in Redmond.

We are only 3 frick'n points out of first place in our division.

When Mittens gets back he will be a significant upgrade over Wellwood, at least the way Wellwood is playing right now.

In the next 7 to 10 days we will have a significantly different and BETTER line up.

We know Wheeler can play A LOT better than he has been playing so far this year.

All will be fine. Chill.

This. I'll run with this, and not because I'm some neophyte, naive young guy. I've been through the wars with the Jets 1.0 and all those dark days some here may be too young to remember. I refuse to believe that this team won't get better. This is not the time to back the bus over people. Calm, rational thought must prevail.

 

[Gungagalunga]

Anyone who blames Pavelec for this loss...[mod]

Redman and Clitsome.....................really? How about pointing blame where it should be: Kane, Wheeler, Ladd, Jokinen, Wellwood, Antorpov, Burmistrov. Not the coach, not the goalie, the offensive players that whine and cry for 3,4,5, $6 million/per.

 

[King Woodballs]

Is it too much to expect your goalie to make huge saves when you need him to?

Is it to much to ask your forwards and defensemen not to cough the puck up at the blue line while on the pp?

 

[Gungagalunga]

Is it too much to expect your goalie to make huge saves when you need him to?

You do realize that was a F'ING laser beam from Kessel, right. You do realize that, or no? You do realize not one goalie on the planet would stop that screened laser beam, right? Amazing.

 

[Tdoe42]

Pavlec's problem with his glove is pure mechanical... Watch the replay he dips his glove down when he reacts to the shot. If he just keeps it still he probably makes the save. The best view is about the :46 mark

 

[Huffer]

You forgot Redmond.

Third bullet point in the positive category.

 

[truck]

You've been whining about the pp; I'm conversely not sure why you would feel that is relevant given that the pp is ranked in the top 1/2 of the league.

The problem with the team is the lack of defense, not a power play that scores at an above average rate, FYI.

The Jets are allowing the 11th fewest shots against in the league. That doesn't speak to a sub par defense either... unless you see an issue that goes beyond the numbers.

I am concerned about the powerplay. Their zone entries have been pathetic and they aren't getting pucks on net. Ultimately they have managed a good percentage, but I can't see them sustaining it without improving their zone entries.

All and all, I'm not terribly concerned by the team.

Goaltending needs to be better and it should get better.
The PK needs to be better and it has been getting better.
Kane and Olli's shots need to start going in and they will.
Byfuglien and Bogosian need to come back and they will.

I thought the Jets outplayed the Leafs. Losses in that kind of game happen.

I didn't like them sitting back after they got the lead, but that could also have been about the Leafs triple shifting Kessel.

 

[Lynk]

I really do wonder what has happened to Pavs reaction time and glove hand. It honestly was his biggest asset in his early Thrasher days.

Just check out some examples:

 

[Gump Hasek]

The Jets are allowing the 11th fewest shots against in the league. That doesn't speak to a sub par defense either... unless you see an issue that goes beyond the numbers.

Quality of chances versus quantity. He is seeing different types of shots against when Bogo & Buff aren't there to defend.

Good goal-tending is most often a function of the quality of team play in front of them.

 

[Analyst365]

I can't see how anyone who was at the game live, and had their eyes open, could place blame on Pavelec.

 

[KBADCJET]

Is it to much to ask your forwards and defensemen not to cough the puck up at the blue line while on the pp?

No you are correct. Fault for this teams play lays with the entire team.

 

[TroubaFan1]

I can't see how anyone who was at the game live, and had their eyes open, could place blame on Pavelec.

Agreed, well said.

 

[Prot]

Pavlec's problem with his glove is pure mechanical... Watch the replay he dips his glove down when he reacts to the shot. If he just keeps it still he probably makes the save. The best view is about the :46 mark

This is what I've been saying. It's not that he isn't capable of handling the high glove shot, it's that his immediate reaction to any shot is going butterfly... regardless of the direction.

The nice thing about this is being a positional goalie of large stature, he removed the bottom 6" of scoring ice. The bad news is everyone has caught on to this.

In reality he is hard to beat, but he gets blocked a lot, there are very few Jets that steer the crease clear. But on a one on one situation 9 out of 10 times you gotta go glove high on him.

Recently they've been coaching him to push the top of the crease, sooner. I don't really care for this as he is a high rebound goalie, and doesn't get a lot of help right now so he is quite often right out of position on that second shot.

^this is a recipe for destroying his confidence imo. He just needs to recognize that teams know his weakness... all goalies have one, this isn't ground breaking stuff.

 

[truck]

Quality of chances versus quantity. He is seeing different types of shots against when Bogo & Buff aren't there to defend.

Good goal-tending is most often a function of the quality of team play in front of them.

IMO and statistically good goal-tending is almost never a function of the quality of team play in front of them. Lots of goalies on bad team put up good numbers.

I really don't see the Jets giving up a ton of quality chances these days.

 

[truck]

I really do wonder what has happened to Pavs reaction time and glove hand. It honestly was his biggest asset in his early Thrasher days.

Interestingly pretty much everything from his old HF profile remains true:

Talent Analysis

Pavelec has a good size, which helps him to cover a good amount of the net. He possesses decent skating skills and adequate lateral movement. He plays a quality butterfly style, displays strong athleticism and flexibility. As for the mental side he is calm and also has solid focus and mental toughness. Pavelec shows above-average reading of plays and anticipation; he challenges the shooter well. He has solid reflexes and quickness and is tough to beat on initial shots. Pavelec orientates in traffic well, handles rebounds and plays the angles adequately well.

On the downside, Pavelec needs to keep his conditioning in check and remain consistent. He allows a good number of goals through his five-hole and needs to play better in position when making the saves. He could still improve his glove hand and often he seems to have trouble on high shots. His stickhandling ability is rather average and some of his moves can lead to risky plays. He also tends to play too deep in the net, thus being more vulnerable to shots than dekes.

...only difference I can see is that now he mental toughness has come into question.

 

[Stej]

I thought Slater had a good game yesterday. He was noticeable with the energy and physicality that he brought.

 

[sully1410]

As I've said a couple times now: the last few games have been ugly, but the power play is not going to be an issue for this team. It's been the 12th best unit since the last season in Atlanta. At the very worst, it's a back burner issue for this hockey team.



Why wouldn't that comment be taken seriously? 12th best would imply a playoff-calibre PP unit.

Your joking right? The PP has been the single wort aspect of this teams game outside of the PK since this season started!

Sure, it looks good on paper, but we all know better then to just look at the box car stats and take that to be truth. You need to dig deeper. My guess is, without digging to deep, that our PP has a low amount of shots and an unsustainable shooting percentage.

Unless something changes, it will begin to falter and then fail...much like we saw last night.

Florida loss, we didn't convert a single pp into a goal, however we converted 1 when we won. Ottawa we were 1 for 6. NYI we were 1 for 4. TB 2-4, Mtl 1-6 and Boston was 0-4.

Pittsburgh we were 1-2 and Washington we were 2-5.

I agree. Pretty good totals with the exception of a few of those losses there.

Lets take a look at the shots on net. Pittsburgh we managed 1. Washington we managed 4. NYI we managed 2. Florida we managed 6 and 2 respectively. Ottawa and Boston were two a piece. Toronto was apparently 4, but your all saying it was only one. Tampa bay was 5.

Quick add...that's 26 shots on 42 opportunities.

Now, lets look at the PP goals. We have 9 on the season. So if the stats website is wrong the team scored at approximately 40% of its shots on the PP. If you guys are wrong, then we 're looking at approx 35%. That's pretty unsustainable if you ask me.

Just for fun, lets look at a few other teams.

Pittsburgh has 12g on 52 shots, in 41 opportunities. They had twice as many shots in 1 less opportunity and only 4 more goals.

That's a percentage of 23%.

Vancouver has had 51 pp opportunities, 43 shots, and 7g. Wow...that's pretty ******. Either way, that's a shooting percentage of 16%.

The Jets definitely have a high SH%, and it won't last forever.

 

[Flair Hay]

The title of this post game thread is a fail AFAIC. Pavelec has been really underwhelming so far. But this is a team game and everyone needs to pick it up a notch. We're missing several elements in personnel, and other teams are taking advantage of it. We will see over the course of the season how well Noel and the team adjusts to the up as downs. Blaming a team loss like this on a goaltender is a chicken ****, lazy move designed to get attention and nothing else. Lets try and be smarter fans than the hoards of bozos who simply call for everyone's head when they're not winning, please.

 

[Soble]

I thought Slater had a good game yesterday. He was noticeable with the energy and physicality that he brought.

Was it just me or did he get nailed like 3 times by point shots in front of both nets? One time he went down and certainly appeared shaken up.

 

[KBADCJET]

I can't see how anyone who was at the game live, and had their eyes open, could place blame on Pavelec.

And he played so magnificently during his time with HC Bílí Tygři Liberec as well I suppose? You all need to face it ...... Something is not right with Pavs this year.

 

[Gump Hasek]

IMO and statistically good goal-tending is almost never a function of the quality of team play in front of them. Lots of goalies on bad team put up good numbers.

Really? I completely disagree with you.

Would Brodeur's numbers for example be similar with this defense group versus when playing behind Stevens and Daneyko? Would Dryden be an HOF player if he'd spent his career with the North Stars? Doubt it.

 

[allan5oh]

If Stuart had stepped up on the GWG after Bozak dropped it....

And where were the other players? Why were they all out of position on the other side of the ice?

 

[truck]

Really? I completely disagree with you.

Would Brodeur's numbers for example be similar with this defense group versus when playing behind Stevens and Daneyko? Would Dryden be an HOF player if he'd spent his career with the North Stars? Doubt it.

I said almost never. There are a few goalies that have benefited from a system that suites them, but I would argue that to me the exception rather than a rule.

There are more goalies who have played well on awful good defensive teams that bad goalies who have posted good numbers on a good team, especially over a prolonged period.

Also worth noting that Marty produced 2 of his three best save percentages after Stevens retired.