Post-Game Talk: Leafs 3 Jets 2. Pavelec fails again.

[Hank Chinaski]

(...)

I think you're misunderstanding me. Of course the Jets power play has struggled at times this year, that's nothing new. And yes, their shot output is poor (35 shots on 42 attempts, worst ratio in the league). And yet, they're still 12th in the league, despite being without their best PP player for a good chunk of games and without Bogo for the entire year thus far.

Now yes, it's entirely possible that the struggles continue, the shot % inevitably drops, and the PP sinks to the bottom half of the league. But wouldn't smart money be on the PP sustaining at around above average? After all, that's where this group currently is in overall percentage, and has been for the last few years.

 

[sully1410]

Really? I completely disagree with you.

Would Brodeur's numbers for example be similar with this defense group versus when playing behind Stevens and Daneyko? Would Dryden be an HOF player if he'd spent his career with the North Stars? Doubt it.

SV% is entirely a goalie stat. I agree that they wouldn't have as many wins and probably more goals against, but it stands to reason that they would make more saves as well. Offense was very weighted back in the day, not nearly as much emphasis on D as there is now. Brodeur probably had to be better then then he has to be now.

 

[Gump Hasek]

The title of this post game thread is a fail AFAIC. Pavelec has been really underwhelming so far. But this is a team game and everyone needs to pick it up a notch. We're missing several elements in personnel, and other teams are taking advantage of it. We will see over the course of the season how well Noel and the team adjusts to the up as downs. Blaming a team loss like this on a goaltender is a chicken ****, lazy move designed to get attention and nothing else. Lets try and be smarter fans than the hoards of bozos who simply call for everyone's head when they're not winning, please.

Yep. The goal-tending would have looked a bit better if the team wasn't missing two thirds of its top three D. The pp would be more efficient if we weren't forced to use inexperienced AHL d-men on the blue line. Hockey is indeed a team game and no individual scapegoat exists at current. Expecting better results with this current lineup amounts to nothing more than unrealistic expectations.

 

[Tdoe42]

This is what I've been saying. It's not that he isn't capable of handling the high glove shot, it's that his immediate reaction to any shot is going butterfly... regardless of the direction.

The nice thing about this is being a positional goalie of large stature, he removed the bottom 6" of scoring ice. The bad news is everyone has caught on to this.

In reality he is hard to beat, but he gets blocked a lot, there are very few Jets that steer the crease clear. But on a one on one situation 9 out of 10 times you gotta go glove high on him.

Recently they've been coaching him to push the top of the crease, sooner. I don't really care for this as he is a high rebound goalie, and doesn't get a lot of help right now so he is quite often right out of position on that second shot.

^this is a recipe for destroying his confidence imo. He just needs to recognize that teams know his weakness... all goalies have one, this isn't ground breaking stuff.

I like the Idea of him coming out more but the Snap he does with his glove is the problem and fixing that cant be that hard

 

[Blackie Dammit]

Bottom line is that we are a team playing without 2 keys pieces, when they return we will be ok, the problem is when they return we will have 9 of 11 on the road, big problem. the Jets need to stay 1 or 2 games above .500 through this road swing to have a chance. That would put us at March 10 with 23 games left to make a serious push if we're not too far out of it. One good thing is the home stand at the end of the seson.

 

[Gump Hasek]

SV% is entirely a goalie stat. I agree that they wouldn't have as many wins and probably more goals against, but it stands to reason that they would make more saves as well. Offense was very weighted back in the day, not nearly as much emphasis on D as there is now. Brodeur probably had to be better then then he has to be now.

Wrong. Brodeur's numbers then were in large part a function of playing behind a team that placed more of an emphasis on team and individual defense than did the others at the time. Their defensive team play at the time was blamed for producing boring hockey and spawned a legion of imitators that continues to this day... because the net results were wins.

Save percentage fails to account for the quality of the shots against. That is kind of the point.

 

[blueandgoldguy]

We have average goaltending, absolutely no presence, in front of the net....in both offensive and defensive zones....our special teams are playing at a AHL level... in the NHL.... and our top forwards, alternate between ok....and invisible....

Other than that, things look pretty good.....

Considering what you type on the other site, I expect a more in-depth analysis from you after a Jets game. This is like only 20-30 words. Oh, and there needs to be a gin comment to finish things off.

 

[sully1410]

I think you're misunderstanding me. Of course the Jets power play has struggled at times this year, that's nothing new. And yes, their shot output is poor (35 shots on 42 attempts, worst ratio in the league). And yet, they're still 12th in the league, despite being without their best PP player for a good chunk of games and without Bogo for the entire year thus far.

Now yes, it's entirely possible that the struggles continue, the shot % inevitably drops, and the PP sinks to the bottom half of the league. But wouldn't smart money be on the PP sustaining at around above average? After all, that's where this group currently is in overall percentage, and has been for the last few years.

Oh I think it will level off when it Buff comes back and what not. He has 3 of the pp goals after all.

That being said, the PP has been figured out, as it was effectively shut down last night.

I firmly believe that they need to create more consistent traffic on the net, at all times not just on the PP. The good news is that they break into the opposing teams zone quite a bit, that's why the shots are so high.

 

[sully1410]

Wrong. Brodeur's numbers then were a function of playing behind a team that placed more of an emphasis on team and individual defense than did the others at the time. Their defensive team play at the time was blamed for producing boring hockey and spawned a legion of imitators that continues to this day... because the net results were wins.

Save percentage fails to account for the quality of the shots against. That is kind of the point.

No...your wrong!

Lol jk. I didn't watch alot of hockey in the nineties and what not...so I'll take your word for it.

I do firmly agree with the last part of your post though. That is part in parcel with the Jets forward offense. They don't create good shots or good scoring opportunities. I don't think anyways.

 

[Romang67]

I'm actually pretty curious how other team's would do with two of their top three d-men out. I think it may be worse for us because there is such a gap between our third best (take your pick between Toby, Buff and Bogosian) and our fourth. But still, having two top d-men out would probably hurt any team.

 

[Blue Shakehead]

You've been whining about the pp; I'm conversely not sure why you would feel that is relevant given that the pp is ranked in the top 1/2 of the league.

The problem with the team is the lack of defense, not a power play that scores at an above average rate, FYI.

The coach figured it was relevant given that we only had 1 shot on net in 4 attempts yesterday and we probably had it in their zone for 1:30 out of 8:00. He mentioned the same thing the last game but I suppose he's a big whiner too. Its probably also not relevant that:

- the PP went 0/4 vs Boston (one late in the 3rd and one in OT). 1 shot on net.

- The 12th best PP went 1/6 in MTL, with 3 SOG. Loss.

- Then it went 0/3 against FLA with 1 shot on net. Loss.

- The high octane PP wenet 2/7 against Tampa but sadly we were already down 6 goals. Loss.

- The PP went 1/4 against FLA again, with only one SOG.

- Last night we went

Nothing to see here! I'm not saying the PP is our only problem. But anyone who watched the last few games knows that our PP has been terrible. We can't enter the zone and when we do, its entirely predictable shots from the point.

Speaking of whining though, I noticed you're still blathering on about team defence despite playing a 1-2-2 system, with our forwards collapsing the net and supporting our defence behind the goal line. Since moving to this system, our "lack of team defence" has held the opposing teams to 19 and 18 shots in the last two games (despite averaging 30 shots per game before that). But yeah, you're probably right so lets stick with your learned analysis.

 

[King Woodballs]

I just wanted to say one more thing.

For all the **** and abuse I give Hainsey, I thought he played a pretty good game last night.

 

[truck]

Wrong. Brodeur's numbers then were in large part a function of playing behind a team that placed more of an emphasis on team and individual defense than did the others at the time. Their defensive team play at the time was blamed for producing boring hockey and spawned a legion of imitators that continues to this day... because the net results were wins.

Save percentage fails to account for the quality of the shots against. That is kind of the point.

Brodeur has put up semi-consistent save percentages, but they fluctuated a lot more year to year than his Goals Against average. What explains his save percentage bouncing between .902 and .927 besides up and down years? Sure he probably benefited from the system, but most of that came in terms of GAA and wins. Not to mention, the D men in front of him have changed a lot over time, but he remained the same goalie.

The biggest thing about the Devils old system is that it prevented the other team from getting shots on goal. The Devils allowed 22.7, 25.4, 24.4, 22.4, 24.7, 25.0, 24.5, 22.7, 23.4 and 24.6 from 1994 to 2004. That is why nobody scored on them.

No team in the league allowed as few as 25 last year. The Blues allowed a league best 26.7 and no team has allowed less that 25.0 shots on goal per game since 2007-08.

Since 2004 Brodeur has faced 28.8, 28.0, 27.1, 28.1, 26.0, 23.4, 24.9 and 26.5 shots per game, all without Scott Stevens. His save percentage did not drop at all, but his goals against average has sky rocketed.

Numbers indicate that:

SV% is almost entirely on the goalie.

GAA is almost entirely on the team as it is a function of shots and save percentage. Goalies don't control shots outside of puck handling a rebounds.

 

[White Out 403*]

People have called me out for this thread title. I'll simply re-direct the question back to them... do you not expect your goaltender who's making elite level top dollar to shut the door and maintain a 3rd period lead with less than 10 mins left? This is now the 2nd loss in a row where Pavelec has allowed 3 leads to evaporate in the last period of play. Some, not all posters here are talking like the Jets are allowing 15 breakaways a game which is laughable. This is the NHL folks: 15 shots against is a defensive performance that is worthy of a W. But it's the NHL as I said, sometimes the other team will get good chances. If you pay your #1 man over 5 million a year to be the man you are expecting him to make those saves. Not only that you're allocating money away from the forward skaters and defence. With this balogne goaltending we're not only losing games but not having free cap space to sign a difference maker to play on D or play alongside Kane.

Is this loss on Pavs if you look at this game with a microscope? No. It's s shared loss. But within the context of this season and his below mediocre goaltending it's time to shed some light on this guy and how bad he's been for the Jets.

 

[Hammer Slammer]

I just wanted to say one more thing.

For all the **** and abuse I give Hainsey, I thought he played a pretty good game last night.

I was impressed with his recovery and skating ability after that puck took a weird bounce and gave a 2 on 1. That play was great.

 

[Blue Shakehead]

I was impressed with his recovery and skating ability after that puck took a weird bounce and gave a 2 on 1. That play was great.

That and the fact that he made the only big save of the night, allowing Pavelec to maintain a .667 save percentage.

 

[Hank Chinaski]

Is this loss on Pavs if you look at this game with a microscope? No. It's s shared loss. But within the context of this season and his below mediocre goaltending it's time to shed some light on this guy and how bad he's been for the Jets.

Shed some light? I'm pretty sure Pavs play has been under the high beams from the beginning of the season.

 

[White Out 403*]

Shed some light? I'm pretty sure Pavs play has been under the high beams from the beginning of the season.

You're probably right. I just feel totally at a loss as what else to do as a fan. I want the Jets to win more than anything else. When I see this guy play so bad and dupe our team into a large extension it just irks me. I want him to play well and succeed; I have a huge Pavelec photo I took in New York printed off and framed by my TV. Argh.

 

[King Woodballs]

I was impressed with his recovery and skating ability after that puck took a weird bounce and gave a 2 on 1. That play was great.

That was the main one
That puck took a horrible Jets bounce.
Hainsey recovered quite well

 

[King Woodballs]

People have called me out for this thread title. I'll simply re-direct the question back to them... do you not expect your goaltender who's making elite level top dollar to shut the door and maintain a 3rd period lead with less than 10 mins left? This is now the 2nd loss in a row where Pavelec has allowed 3 leads to evaporate in the last period of play. Some, not all posters here are talking like the Jets are allowing 15 breakaways a game which is laughable. This is the NHL folks: 15 shots against is a defensive performance that is worthy of a W. But it's the NHL as I said, sometimes the other team will get good chances. If you pay your #1 man over 5 million a year to be the man you are expecting him to make those saves. Not only that you're allocating money away from the forward skaters and defence. With this balogne goaltending we're not only losing games but not having free cap space to sign a difference maker to play on D or play alongside Kane.

Is this loss on Pavs if you look at this game with a microscope? No. It's s shared loss. But within the context of this season and his below mediocre goaltending it's time to shed some light on this guy and how bad he's been for the Jets.

I expect the whole team to lock it down.
Not just the goalie.

 

[KBADCJET]

People have called me out for this thread title. I'll simply re-direct the question back to them... do you not expect your goaltender who's making elite level top dollar to shut the door and maintain a 3rd period lead with less than 10 mins left? This is now the 2nd loss in a row where Pavelec has allowed 3 leads to evaporate in the last period of play. Some, not all posters here are talking like the Jets are allowing 15 breakaways a game which is laughable. This is the NHL folks: 15 shots against is a defensive performance that is worthy of a W. But it's the NHL as I said, sometimes the other team will get good chances. If you pay your #1 man over 5 million a year to be the man you are expecting him to make those saves. Not only that you're allocating money away from the forward skaters and defence. With this balogne goaltending we're not only losing games but not having free cap space to sign a difference maker to play on D or play alongside Kane.

Is this loss on Pavs if you look at this game with a microscope? No. It's s shared loss. But within the context of this season and his below mediocre goaltending it's time to shed some light on this guy and how bad he's been for the Jets.

I agree with you! And just wanted to add that we outshot the Maple Laffs in every period!!

 

[truck]

People have called me out for this thread title. I'll simply re-direct the question back to them... do you not expect your goaltender who's making elite level top dollar to shut the door and maintain a 3rd period lead with less than 10 mins left? This is now the 2nd loss in a row where Pavelec has allowed 3 leads to evaporate in the last period of play. Some, not all posters here are talking like the Jets are allowing 15 breakaways a game which is laughable. This is the NHL folks: 15 shots against is a defensive performance that is worthy of a W. But it's the NHL as I said, sometimes the other team will get good chances. If you pay your #1 man over 5 million a year to be the man you are expecting him to make those saves. Not only that you're allocating money away from the forward skaters and defence. With this balogne goaltending we're not only losing games but not having free cap space to sign a difference maker to play on D or play alongside Kane.

Is this loss on Pavs if you look at this game with a microscope? No. It's s shared loss. But within the context of this season and his below mediocre goaltending it's time to shed some light on this guy and how bad he's been for the Jets.

I think part of people over-estimating the defensive breakdowns is a result of the opposition scoring on pretty much every 2 on 1 or breakaway. We all know Pav is terrible at breakaways, but he struggles just as much on 2 on 1s. He almost always cheats away from his post and leaves part of the net open for the shooter.


I really don't think there have been that many breakdowns, but the ones that do happen are memorable because they pretty much all result in goals against.

 

[truck]

I expect the whole team to lock it down.
Not just the goalie.

Aside from the Postma boo boo. You can ask a team to do much more defensively. They allowed 17 shots on goal. Pav isn't the only goalie that is asked to make a few tough saves a game. I don't think he was terrible last night, but he has been pretty awful this year and I think the defense has been okay.

 

[mzappa]

ps - sold my tix for last night, but heard there were lots of fights in stands after the game? this true??

 

[hurricanedave]

Blaming this on Pavelec is absolutely incorrect. No one is stopping that Kessel shot.

Forwards are not good enough. That penalty on Poni was garbage but them sitting on their heels the minute they took the lead was inexusable.

I'm calling out pretty much every scoring forward on this team right now.

This, completely this. Whenever the Jets have to lead in the third they just sit on their butts in the d zone.