LD Travis Dermott - Erie Otters, OHL (2015, 34th, TOR)

[Stephen]

I'm not making a player to player comparison for Travis to Percy but more from a developmental point of view. To me Percy and Dermott are similar prospects at the same age. Both probably 2nd pairing Puck moving dependable D men with limited offensive upside.

I recall when Percy was drafted, people were similarly high on him at the time citing his hockey IQ. I thought he would be in the NHL once he completed his OHL career due to this, certainly after a short stint in the AHL, I am still surprised he is still in the AHL today.

But anyway, this is where I see the similarity. It will be interesting to watch Dermott's progression, where I think Nielsen has passed him on the depth chart, as he has progressed faster.

Further, I do agree with you on the premise you brought up. Seeing the potential players Leafs passed on to drop down, it may be a possible miscalculation. Only time will tell for this. This is okay to admit as a fan, as you are one of the few that can see not only positive outcomes but negative outcomes. So I commend you for atleast asking the question on the Main board.

It's actually more of an open ended question than a premise because I'm not following Dermott very closely. Often we see guys like Jacob Larsson get monster praise for no discernible statistical reason or any kind of AHL or NHL play, but we hedge on other kids the same age. Why is that? Is this a function of real evaluation or is it organizational bias? I don't recall Dermott being billed as a low upside safe pick either, so the Percy comparison is a bit confusing as well.

 

[93LEAFS]

Flyers-Leaf trade has been long enough in the past to judge...... We can't do a re-draft of 2015 because "it is too soon."

 

[Antropovsky]

Very similar to Rielly... advantage to Rielly as a skater.. but otherwise very similar in every way including build. Rielly seems to be a better rushing defensemen, while Dermott tends to stay back. Dermott has the better point shot. Really looking forward to seeing Dermott get his first taste of NHL action.

 

[Antropovsky]

I'm not making a player to player comparison for Travis to Percy but more from a developmental point of view. To me Percy and Dermott are similar prospects at the same age. Both probably 2nd pairing Puck moving dependable D men with limited offensive upside.

I recall when Percy was drafted, people were similarly high on him at the time citing his hockey IQ. I thought he would be in the NHL once he completed his OHL career due to this, certainly after a short stint in the AHL, I am still surprised he is still in the AHL today.

But anyway, this is where I see the similarity. It will be interesting to watch Dermott's progression, where I think Nielsen has passed him on the depth chart, as he has progressed faster.

Further, I do agree with you on the premise you brought up. Seeing the potential players Leafs passed on to drop down, it may be a possible miscalculation. Only time will tell for this. This is okay to admit as a fan, as you are one of the few that can see not only positive outcomes but negative outcomes. So I commend you for atleast asking the question on the Main board.

I see what your saying about the high IQ comparison, both Percy and Dermott were definitely praised on draft day for their high IQ's. However it seems that the biggest difference between Dermott and Percy is their skating. In today's NHL your skating can mean the difference between an NHL career and an AHL career. Matt Finn is another example of a leaf player who performed very well in the CHL, but his skating ultimately prevented him from excelling past that point... same goes for multiple other high draft picks such as Luke Schenn and Griffin Reinhart.

If Schenn, Reinhart, Percy could skate as well as Dermott, I'm sure each would be enjoying much better professional careers.

 

[Stephen]

I see what your saying about the high IQ comparison, both Percy and Dermott were definitely praised on draft day for their high IQ's. However it seems that the biggest difference between Dermott and Percy is their skating. In today's NHL your skating can mean the difference between an NHL career and an AHL career. Matt Finn is another example of a leaf player who performed very well in the CHL, but his skating ultimately prevented him from excelling past that point... same goes for multiple other high draft picks such as Luke Schenn and Griffin Reinhart.

If Schenn, Reinhart, Percy could skate as well as Dermott, I'm sure each would be enjoying much better professional careers.

It's weird. He compares himself to Morgan Rielly in an interview around the time of draft, and skating is listed as a strength, but then you'll see reports criticizing his skating. Sometimes I feel like Nielsen's weakness has been put on Dermott over time erroneously by people who don't watch.

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2015/06/24/travis-dermott-scouting-report-2015-nhl-draft/

http://lastwordonsports.com/2015/05/30/2015-nhl-draft-prospect-profile-57-travis-dermott/

 

[Randy Randerson]

Very similar to Rielly... advantage to Rielly as a skater.. but otherwise very similar in every way including build. Rielly seems to be a better rushing defensemen, while Dermott tends to stay back. Dermott has the better point shot. Really looking forward to seeing Dermott get his first taste of NHL action.

I don't remember Rielly being as touted as a defender or having Dermott's mean streak

Rielly's offensive ceiling was considered to be way higher though, that's what got him taken so high

Either way, looking forward to seeing what we have in Dermott

 

[93LEAFS]

It's weird. He compares himself to Morgan Rielly in an interview around the time of draft, and skating is listed as a strength, but then you'll see reports criticizing his skating. Sometimes I feel like Nielsen's weakness has been put on Dermott over time erroneously by people who don't watch.

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2015/06/24/travis-dermott-scouting-report-2015-nhl-draft/

http://lastwordonsports.com/2015/05/30/2015-nhl-draft-prospect-profile-57-travis-dermott/

I wouldn't put too much weight on McKeens or lastwordonsports. From the more reputable sources you get things like this.

If guys like Button, and HockeyProspect.com are good with his skating, and he passes my own personal eye-test. I won't worry about those other sources.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

It's actually more of an open ended question than a premise because I'm not following Dermott very closely. Often we see guys like Jacob Larsson get monster praise for no discernible statistical reason or any kind of AHL or NHL play, but we hedge on other kids the same age. Why is that? Is this a function of real evaluation or is it organizational bias? I don't recall Dermott being billed as a low upside safe pick either, so the Percy comparison is a bit confusing as well.

For Larsson it is probably harder to quantify his play since he plays in the SHL, perhaps it is easier to follow and quantify players playing in the AHL.

Again it was not so much a stylistic comparison but more of a projection comparison to what they will become, based on expectation, draft ranking, where they were picked, and same stages of development.

Both Dermott and Percy were ranked similarly by Central Scouting at #46 and #54 their draft years. Mckenzie had it #42 and #34 for these 2. Both were picked higher than their ranking based on their playoffs. Both are projected as #2 pairing D men. Percy 7C, Dermott 7D rating on HF Futures are virtually identical.

I see what your saying about the high IQ comparison, both Percy and Dermott were definitely praised on draft day for their high IQ's. However it seems that the biggest difference between Dermott and Percy is their skating. In today's NHL your skating can mean the difference between an NHL career and an AHL career. Matt Finn is another example of a leaf player who performed very well in the CHL, but his skating ultimately prevented him from excelling past that point... same goes for multiple other high draft picks such as Luke Schenn and Griffin Reinhart.

If Schenn, Reinhart, Percy could skate as well as Dermott, I'm sure each would be enjoying much better professional careers.

This is a good post, I actually like both players because I think smart, not too flashy D men are valuable. Even though Percy's development has been slow, I still believe he is going to be a solid #3 pairing guy in the NHL. Don't count him out. He is not likely to reach #2 pairing status on a good team. But he will be a useful player. I had Dermott as a projected #2 pairing D man on a good team. If he does not reach this, I think he is also a safe candidate to be a #3 pairing D man on a good team. But agreed his skating is the best of the 3.

You also mention Finn, now I would categorize him as a player whose skating will keep him out of the NHL. But I wouldn't for Percy who I consider serviceable enough for a 3rd pairing. It's too bad though, since I think he has all the other necessary tools to be a NHL Defenceman.

My apologies, I am all over the place with this post, but you had a good reply and I wanted to reply to all your points.

 

[Stephen]

For Larsson it is probably harder to quantify his play since he plays in the SHL, perhaps it is easier to follow and quantify players playing in the AHL.

Again it was not so much a stylistic comparison but more of a projection comparison to what they will become, based on expectation, draft ranking, where they were picked, and same stages of development.

Both Dermott and Percy were ranked similarly by Central Scouting at #46 and #54 their draft years. Mckenzie had it #42 and #34 for these 2. Both were picked higher than their ranking based on their playoffs. Both are projected as #2 pairing D men. Percy 7C, Dermott 7D rating on HF Futures are virtually identical.

This is a good post, I actually like both players because I think smart, not too flashy D men are valuable. Even though Percy's development has been slow, I still believe he is going to be a solid #3 pairing guy in the NHL. Don't count him out. He is not likely to reach #2 pairing status on a good team. But he will be a useful player. I had Dermott as a projected #2 pairing D man on a good team. If he does not reach this, I think he is also a safe candidate to be a #3 pairing D man on a good team. But agreed his skating is the best of the 3.

You also mention Finn, now I would categorize him as a player whose skating will keep him out of the NHL. But I wouldn't for Percy who I consider serviceable enough for a 3rd pairing. It's too bad though, since I think he has all the other necessary tools to be a NHL Defenceman.

My apologies, I am all over the place with this post, but you had a good reply and I wanted to reply to all your points.

What I'm getting at is commentators may be confusing Dermott with Percy (and Finn) because of draft position and organizational affiliation and some statistics based , because some of the pro write ups don't match up well with what his pre and post draft literature was like. I get that they're similarly ranked players, but their pros and cons aren't really the same so it's hard to say he'll have a development path like Percy.

Again, I haven't watched him, but it seems like there's a degree of organizational bias here: Larsson comes from a team that brought us Vatanen, Lindholm, and Toronto has previously drafted Finn and Percy.

 

[smpo11]

Age 18
Dermott - OHL - 61 gp, 8 gl, 45 pts (82 gp, 11 gls, 61 pts)
Percy - OHL - 34 gp, 5 gls, 25 pts (82 gp, 12 gls, 60 pts)

Age 19
Dermott - OHL - 51 gp, 6 gl, 43 pts (82 gp, 10 gls, 69 pts)
Percy - OHL - 68 gp, 13 gls, 45 pts (82 gp, 16 gls, 54 pts)

Age 20
Dermott - AHL - 33 gp, 1 gl, 15 pts (82 gp, 3 gls, 37 pts)
Percy - AHL - 71 gp, 4 gls, 25 pts (82 gp , 5 gls, 29 pts)


Dermott's development has gone much better than Percy's to this point if their careers.

 

[Haatley]

Age 18
Dermott - OHL - 61 gp, 8 gl, 45 pts (82 gp, 11 gls, 61 pts)
Percy - OHL - 34 gp, 5 gls, 25 pts (82 gp, 12 gls, 60 pts)

Age 19
Dermott - OHL - 51 gp, 6 gl, 43 pts (82 gp, 10 gls, 69 pts)
Percy - OHL - 68 gp, 13 gls, 45 pts (82 gp, 16 gls, 54 pts)

Age 20
Dermott - AHL - 33 gp, 1 gl, 15 pts (82 gp, 3 gls, 37 pts)
Percy - AHL - 71 gp, 4 gls, 25 pts (82 gp , 5 gls, 29 pts)


Dermott's development has gone much better than Percy's to this point if their careers.

Not really what I would call "much better".

 

[Phion Keneuf]

Not really what I would call "much better".

Yes, because looking at a Dmans offensive numbers is a very accurate representation of how well he's been playing

 

[AuraSphere]

Yes, because looking at a Dmans offensive numbers is a very accurate representation of how well he's been playing

The dude used stats to say "much better" if you read his post properly lol.

 

[Haatley]

Yes, because looking at a Dmans offensive numbers is a very accurate representation of how well he's been playing

I didn't post the stats and use them as a measuring stick.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Age 18
Dermott - OHL - 61 gp, 8 gl, 45 pts (82 gp, 11 gls, 61 pts)
Percy - OHL - 34 gp, 5 gls, 25 pts (82 gp, 12 gls, 60 pts)

Age 19
Dermott - OHL - 51 gp, 6 gl, 43 pts (82 gp, 10 gls, 69 pts)
Percy - OHL - 68 gp, 13 gls, 45 pts (82 gp, 16 gls, 54 pts)

Age 20
Dermott - AHL - 33 gp, 1 gl, 15 pts (82 gp, 3 gls, 37 pts)
Percy - AHL - 71 gp, 4 gls, 25 pts (82 gp , 5 gls, 29 pts)


Dermott's development has gone much better than Percy's to this point if their careers.

To me they are pretty even offensively. When you consider Percy did not play on similar offensive gifted teams as Dermott did in junior. IE McDavid, Strome, DeBrincat, Raddysh. The slightly better PPG at age 18 and 19 is only marginal. In the AHL Dermott is producing at a higher rate, but it isn't significant enough to say one is better or far better on the offensive side of the puck than the other at this stage.

 

[Stephen]

I think my big issue with the Stuart Percy comparison, aside from the fact that it's an unflattering one based on draft position and organization, is the fact that Percy is a thin bodied defenseman, bit fragile, intelligent but rudimentary game, zero offense, whereas Dermott is a good mobile skater, built like a fire hydrant, supposed to be feistier and more of an offensive threat. They just don't seem like the same kind of player.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

I think my big issue with the Stuart Percy comparison, aside from the fact that it's an unflattering one based on draft position and organization, is the fact that Percy is a thin bodied defenseman, bit fragile, intelligent but rudimentary game, zero offense, whereas Dermott is a good mobile skater, built like a fire hydrant, supposed to be feistier and more of an offensive threat. They just don't seem like the same kind of player.

I wouldn't take being compared to Percy as unflattering. You can't teach hockey IQ, and I think both he and Dermott have this. They may differ in physical strengths, but I believe both will find their ways into the NHL even though there are no guarantees for first rd picks, even less so for 2nd rd picks. We don't have to look far in this thread to confirm this.

But my hope is for both Percy and Dermott they will carve out a niche in the NHL. Look at Scott Harrington, it didn't look good for him. But He finally is getting his shot with Columbus, a 2nd rd pick from 2011. 5.5 years after being drafted.

 

[Stephen]

I wouldn't take being compared to Percy as unflattering. You can't teach hockey IQ, and I think both he and Dermott have this. They may differ in physical strengths, but I believe both will find their ways into the NHL even though there are no guarantees for first rd picks, even less so for 2nd rd picks. We don't have to look far in this thread to confirm this.

But my hope is for both Percy and Dermott they will carve out a niche in the NHL. Look at Scott Harrington, it didn't look good for him. But He finally is getting his shot with Columbus, a 2nd rd pick from 2011. 5.5 years after being drafted.

Stuart Percy is not a desired outcome.

 

[Kamiccolo]

I think my big issue with the Stuart Percy comparison, aside from the fact that it's an unflattering one based on draft position and organization, is the fact that Percy is a thin bodied defenseman, bit fragile, intelligent but rudimentary game, zero offense, whereas Dermott is a good mobile skater, built like a fire hydrant, supposed to be feistier and more of an offensive threat. They just don't seem like the same kind of player.

This has been a common theme. Down play the prospects based on past guys who at a fast glance look similar and then refuse to participate in any break downs showing key differences.

See:

Marner = Schremp
Nylander = Gagner

 

[smpo11]

Not really what I would call "much better".

I would. Dermott's numbers are unarguably, significantly better.

Seems odd to look at the facts and pretend like their development has been similar since drafted.

 

[smpo11]

Yes, because looking at a Dmans offensive numbers is a very accurate representation of how well he's been playing

It is offensively. If Percy had Dermott's offensive skills he'd probably be an NHLer now. But even at 23 he isnt showing the skill and production that Dermott is at 20.

 

[Ringing Iron]

Outside of them both playing in the OHL and being drafted by Toronto, there's no similarities in Percy and Dermott's games. Very different players

 

[smpo11]

To me they are pretty even offensively. .

To you maybe, but not to the actual production.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Stuart Percy is not a desired outcome.

Okay Stephen, fair enough. But you started this discussion a few days ago with this open ended comment. Where do you want to go with this? Dermott is somewhere between Keith and Percy right now. I think we can agree we don't know what he is right now, since he was only drafted 1.5 years ago. Let's see how he progresses atleast the rest of the year and next year before we get an idea of what kind of player he is?

At the time I had a feeling like they were unearthing some hidden gem type player. I know the Duncan Keith reference has been thrown around. The fact that he's been able to develop quietly is a good thing in some ways. I don't know if it's a good thing that guys like Konecny, Larsson, Aho who the Leafs bypassed to take him, it makes his selection feel a bit like a miscalculation.

 

[Stephen]

Okay Stephen, fair enough. But you started this discussion a few days ago with this open ended comment. Where do you want to go with this? Dermott is somewhere between Keith and Percy right now. I think we can agree we don't know what he is right now, since he was only drafted 1.5 years ago. Let's see how he progresses atleast the rest of the year and next year before we get an idea of what kind of player he is?

I'd like to know how he's actually doing in the AHL as opposed to recycling storylines from previous failed defensive picks made by the same organization. Obviously those names around him boomed and made a big breakthrough in the NHL, and hindsight may prove that sliding down to grab Dermott, Dzierkals and Bracco probably wasn't worth the trouble, BUT I still want some real breakdown.