LD Olli Juolevi - TPS, Liiga (2016, 5th, VAN)

[hototogisu]

Has any 1st rounder gone from CHL to Europe to NHL and been successful? I know everyone thinks playing against men is ideal, but so far the only three I can think of are Goldobin, Yakupov and now Juolevi. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

I don't see why going to the CHL and then going to play against men would be any different from something like what Matthews did, or what Russians or Europeans regularly do when they stay overseas.

Was there any rumours of any other team looking at him or do you guys think he would drop to mid round if the Canucks didn't pick him?

To suggest so would be pure revisionist history. Some had Sergachev ahead of him but they were both seen as consensus top 5-10 picks.

 

[ijuka]

Excepts trends exist, and it would be stupid to ignore them. The whole, everyone is their own individual allows people to throw out any historical argument they don't like.

I don't see why going to the CHL and then going to play against men would be any different from something like what Matthews did, or what Russians or Europeans regularly do when they stay overseas.

Or even what Tolvanen is doing(Though his success is unknown at this point).

I really don't think that it's a good idea to look at "trends" for such small sample sizes. The players are all individuals and chances are, they'd have failed wherever they went. If anything, logic would dictate that playing in Europe against men for a season should be more useful for development than doing so against juniors in CHL.

 

[93LEAFS]

Or even what Tolvanen is doing(Though his success is unknown at this point).

I really don't think that it's a good idea to look at "trends" for such small sample sizes. The players are all individuals and chances are, they'd have failed wherever they went. If anything, logic would dictate that playing in Europe against men for a season should be more useful for development than doing so against juniors in CHL.

I never said the trend indicated a significantly higher chance of causing him to bust, just that it would be interesting because of two things. First, it hasn't worked out previously in a relatively small sample size. Two, that Juolevi adds to this sample size. This is a commonly debated thing here, with limited supporting evidence, Juolevi adds to the current pool.

 

[93LEAFS]

I don't see why going to the CHL and then going to play against men would be any different from something like what Matthews did, or what Russians or Europeans regularly do when they stay overseas.

Well, what Matthews did is really a one-off going from the USNTDP to Switzerland, and is also an extremely rare talent. Matthews also didn't go to Europe because he wasn't NHL ready, he could have played in the NHL that year if it wasn't for age restrictions.

I'd say its fairly different than staying in Europe, it's a more disjointed path.

Either way, I'm curious to see how it plays out. I thought Juolevi was a solid and a top 10 guy at his draft, and was surprised by his regression or at the very least lack of development last year. Maybe Finland will fix this, but if he plays like he did in pre-season and at points with the Knights last year he will be his teams 6th or 7th defender.

 

[Siludin]

Or even what Tolvanen is doing(Though his success is unknown at this point).

I really don't think that it's a good idea to look at "trends" for such small sample sizes. The players are all individuals and chances are, they'd have failed wherever they went. If anything, logic would dictate that playing in Europe against men for a season should be more useful for development than doing so against juniors in CHL.

Yeah, there aren't many Finnish defensemen (or any position for that matter) who have been drafted top-5, let alone enough to try to extrapolate anything from their career path. If there were more than a 3-4 I would be really surprised.

Rasmus Ristolainen was drafted 8th out of Finland and was AHL-eligible as soon as he came over
Aki Berg went NHL -> IHL -> Finland -> NHL -> Finland
Joni Pitkanen didn't come over to North America until he was 20, and then there was a lockout after his first season.
Mikku Koivu was 6th overall, and not a defensemen, and he came over to North America when he was 22.

Hard to predict anything. If Juolevi goes to Finland and puts up 25-30 points in 45-50 games, that's very good and it should be seen as progress.

 

[DownGoesMcDavid]

Thrilled that he will be play vs Men this year and will be the work horse on his team. He will also be WJC eligible.

Im expecting a great year of devlopment for Juolevi. He thinks the game at an elite level. He just needs the physical tools now to execute.

I see him becoming a top pairing Jay Bouwmeester type minus the skating but more offence and running the powerplay.

 

[thepuckmonster]

Canucks also have Salo over in Turku who was working closely with Juolevi during prospects camp. Probably had a significant amount to do with the choice to loan him to Finland over London.

 

[Szechwan]

This thread nearly burns down HF when he's doing poorly, yet Olli had himself a nice 3 point game yesterday and its crickets.

5gp

1g

2a

3pts

4pim

+2

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Hopefully a sign of things to come, he seems to be settling in a bit and playing with more confidence and a quicker first step.

 

[M2Beezy]

This thread nearly burns down HF when he's doing poorly, yet Olli had himself a nice 3 point game yesterday and its crickets.

5gp

1g

2a

3pts

4pim

+2

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Hopefully a sign of things to come, he seems to be settling in a bit and playing with more confidence and a quicker first step.

Did you really expect non Canuck fans to be following our prospects that have played poorly and restart this thread when they finally got something going??? Really?

Anyways good for him please make this a normal thing to catchup Juol

 

[Szechwan]

Did you really expect non Canuck fans to be following our prospects that have played poorly and restart this thread when they finally got something going??? Really?

Anyways good for him please make this a normal thing to catchup Juol

You've misunderstood the premise. The point was that this thread is about 1000x more active from all parties when he's doing poorly.

Anyways, sorry to derail with HF drama. Keep it up Juo.

 

[Hokinaittii]

I haven't really seen the games but I've heard his start was sluggish but since that he has been improving. At least in his last game he was really good and the points kind of backed that up.

 

[rune74]

Did you really expect non Canuck fans to be following our prospects that have played poorly and restart this thread when they finally got something going??? Really?

Anyways good for him please make this a normal thing to catchup Juol

Oh come on, leafs fans are always here to remind us how poorly our prospects are and crickets when they do well

 

[Siludin]

I still really like Juolevi. Everyone is sad cause of Sergachev's start, but if you moved Sergachev to the Canucks would you expect the same production?

 

[ProspectsFanatic]

I still really like Juolevi. Everyone is sad cause of Sergachev's start, but if you moved Sergachev to the Canucks would you expect the same production?

No, but Sergachev is still the better player.

 

[Pyromaniac]

This thread nearly burns down HF when he's doing poorly, yet Olli had himself a nice 3 point game yesterday and its crickets.

5gp

1g

2a

3pts

4pim

+2

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Hopefully a sign of things to come, he seems to be settling in a bit and playing with more confidence and a quicker first step.

Oh come on, leafs fans are always here to remind us how poorly our prospects are and crickets when they do well

Is the reverse not true as well? I mean before his last game, Juolevi had a stat line of 4gp 0g 0a 0pts 0+/-. No one made a post in this thread (not even Leafs fans ) when he was struggling a bit (taking the word of some Finns) to adjust to a new league. Now @Szechwan chooses to make a post right after he has a 3 point night.

Not that I have a problem with it, this is the nature of this forum. Posters have a tendency to bump a thread or post in it when their prospect is doing well or when a rival team's prospect is performing poorly. I don't see the point in singling out Leafs fans for behaviour that just about every fanbase exhibits. Yesterday we had a Canucks fan in the Korshkov thread telling us what a bust and a reach he was and how well Debrincat was doing.

 

[Cquant]

Juolevi had a bad start during the preseason. He has been playing good for TPS. He is fine, still on track for the NHL. I don't know where all this paranoia is coming from.

 

[Tryamkin]

Juolevi had a bad start during the preseason. He has been playing good for TPS. He is fine, still on track for the NHL. I don't know where all this paranoia is coming from.

Don’t play silly, the paranoia is obviously from the toss up prospects that we passed on to pick Olli that are lighting it up. (Tkachuk, Sergachev, etc). His corsi tho

 

[firstemperor]

Oh come on, leafs fans are always here to remind us how poorly our prospects are and crickets when they do well

We have trolls in our fanbase and it definitely goes both ways. I will say that Juolevi didn't look good last year relative to his peers that got picked around the same pick. When I suggested Sergachev was on another tier as a prospect (which I have been stating going back to their draft years), Canuck fans would get antagonized about it....at the same time, you don't want to dissuade all optimism for a club.

Personally, the only Canuck I've been very positive about in the last few years is Gaudette and Pettersson. Haven't been high on many but that has less to do with the Canucks then who they have, relative to my own evaluations- and the expectations of others.

 

[Cquant]

Don’t play silly, the paranoia is obviously from the toss up prospects that we passed on to pick Olli that are lighting it up. (Tkachuk, Sergachev, etc). His corsi tho

We have trolls in our fanbase and it definitely goes both ways. I will say that Juolevi didn't look good last year relative to his peers that got picked around the same pick. When I suggested Sergachev was on another tier as a prospect (which I have been stating going back to their draft years), Canuck fans would get antagonized about it....at the same time, you don't want to dissuade all optimism for a club.

Personally, the only Canuck I've been very positive about in the last few years is Gaudette and Pettersson. Haven't been high on many but that has less to do with the Canucks then who they have, relative to my own evaluations- and the expectations of others.

I don't quite agree with you guys.
During the OHL playoffs last season all I remember is how Olli was on another level. He was clearly the best defender on the Knights and completely outplayed Sergachev in every single match up with the Spitfires. He was a little weak during the regular season, but apparently the coach was leveling out the pairings with Mete on one and Juolevi on the other and Juolevi was saddled with a rookie. To the best of my knowledge they played roughly equal minutes, with Mete taking more offensive duties and Olli more of the defensive responsibilities.

Keller is great but he is still very small and is going to need sheltering for at least the next while. I don't like his game in his own zone. He seems very volatile somehow whenever I watch him. But he is electrifying. Knowing Willie and Green, he wouldn't be playing much if we had taken him in Olli's place.
Sergachev is riding on the backs of one of the best offensive powers in the NHL this year. He hasn't looked good either, despite putting up the massive points. I gotta say I'm jealous of him a bit nevertheless though. Would be sweet to have both Sergachev and Juolevi.
Tkachuk I have no qualms with. But I've accepted that we weren't going to pick him and that's totally fine with me. The Flames took him and we know have a face to hate whenever we play Calgary

What I'm trying to say is that the prospects that were taken after Juolevi still have their own flaws even if they're having success earlier than he is.

His camp after being drafted was excellent and he showed the hockey IQ, just needed strength. This years was disappointing because we all hoped he would have a much better showing but he was getting beat in areas he was meant to be good at. But he is not even close to busting yet. For all we know he might come in and go straight to our first pairing next season. Maybe I'm just hopelessly optimistic with him thought

And good to hear there are leafs fans out there that follow some of our prospects. I think we're all pretty excited about Gaudette and Pettersson.

 

[Vasilevskiy]

Sergachev has not looked good, that is right. He has looked great, especially for a 19 yo Dman.

 

[firstemperor]

I don't quite agree with you guys.
During the OHL playoffs last season all I remember is how Olli was on another level. He was clearly the best defender on the Knights and completely outplayed Sergachev in every single match up with the Spitfires. He was a little weak during the regular season, but apparently the coach was leveling out the pairings with Mete on one and Juolevi on the other and Juolevi was saddled with a rookie. To the best of my knowledge they played roughly equal minutes, with Mete taking more offensive duties and Olli more of the defensive responsibilities.

Keller is great but he is still very small and is going to need sheltering for at least the next while. I don't like his game in his own zone. He seems very volatile somehow whenever I watch him. But he is electrifying. Knowing Willie and Green, he wouldn't be playing much if we had taken him in Olli's place.
Sergachev is riding on the backs of one of the best offensive powers in the NHL this year. He hasn't looked good either, despite putting up the massive points. I gotta say I'm jealous of him a bit nevertheless though. Would be sweet to have both Sergachev and Juolevi.
Tkachuk I have no qualms with. But I've accepted that we weren't going to pick him and that's totally fine with me. The Flames took him and we know have a face to hate whenever we play Calgary

What I'm trying to say is that the prospects that were taken after Juolevi still have their own flaws even if they're having success earlier than he is.

His camp after being drafted was excellent and he showed the hockey IQ, just needed strength. This years was disappointing because we all hoped he would have a much better showing but he was getting beat in areas he was meant to be good at. But he is not even close to busting yet. For all we know he might come in and go straight to our first pairing next season. Maybe I'm just hopelessly optimistic with him thought

And good to hear there are leafs fans out there that follow some of our prospects. I think we're all pretty excited about Gaudette and Pettersson.

I actually had Sergachev ranked ~#4-#5 above Tkachuk, Keller at the time. Only time will tell if that is correct. In fact, I wanted the Leafs to trade JVR for the Habs #9, at the time, to take him. I didn't like Juolevi much but had him in the same tier as Serg along with Chyrch. Tkachuk is obviously far out in front right now. I'd also wager McAvoy is ahead as well. I was a big Sergachev fan, had a lot of time to follow the OHL that year because the Leafs stunk. I follow prospects regardless as I'm a hockey fan, less so this year- watching more NHL hockey as of late, kinda changes where the Leafs go.

Juolevi's saving grace to last year was his playoffs..where he was pretty good. Wasn't great, Robert Thomas and Mete carried that team a lot more than Juolevi IMO. If we're talking about the regular season, he looked pretty underwhelming to me when I caught the Knights, Mete carried that blue-line a lot more. As for Sergachev, the difference is in his D+1 year he actually took way tougher matchups and grew defensively, so it wasn't a case of just stagnating raw point production with him....it was more of developing his overall game where he took steps forward.

Juolevi wasn't really a "safe" pick either at the time, which is somewhat of a unfounded narrative- he was just overrated on very stacked teams IMO (WJC with the best Fin team ever, possibly one of the most stacked CHL teams ever in the Knights). His style is very low-event, nothing very dynamic about his game. His north-south skating was good but his overall pivoting was overhyped going back to his draft year, though he does have a projectable frame. Also, he wasn't a reach or anything. Reports were the Sabres were very high on him as well- and clearly the media sold him- as the fans were pretty disappointed in the building once his name was called.

 

[Conspiracy Theorist]

If he becomes a top 4 D like I think he can, I'd say the pick was worth it.

 

[Iceman]

If he becomes a top 4 D like I think he can, I'd say the pick was worth it.

Sure, why not, just a shame there seem to have been better dmen right behind him.

GMs believed there was no #1 dmen in the draft which may or may not turn out to be true but there wasn't one with that pedigree at age 17-18.

People need to chill with their expectations from 1st round picks. Not sure why people are disappointed that they don't turn out to be #1's at their position even if they truly were never capable of that. A lot of 1st rounders do not end up having an NHL career so getting a careee middle six player or a stable 2nd pairing dman shouldn't be seen as a failure but actually a reasonable success.

 

[Ippenator]

If he becomes a top 4 D like I think he can, I'd say the pick was worth it.

I wouldn't yet count out even possibilities to be a top 2D at some point. Of course I'm not claiming that it will happen, but I think it is still too early to write out the possibility of even that happening. It wouldn't be the first time that a very promising defenceman first regresses even a bit, but then starts suddenly taking huge steps in getting a top defenceman status in the NHL. Chris Pronger at least comes to my mind with this kind of development. And I don't mean that Juolevi will ever be in the same class as Pronger. Just that quick and even surprising changes in development can happen even after slight regression, when talking about this young prospects.

 

[lifelonghockeyfan]

I've never been "NHL impressive" with his play. Unless you knew he Juolevi was a first rounder, he seem to be just another good junior. Sure he can be an top 4 NHLer, but IMO, that is not guaranteed. I think he needs some AHL time to play against men as a real wake up call.