LD Darnell Nurse (2013, 7th, EDM)

[kickaction]

I don't think it inspires more confidence in Oilers fans knowing that Jakub Kindl is the closest comparable for adjusted point totals in Draft +1,+2 years.

So by that logic, should it inspire confidence that he's above someone like Brent Seabrook?

 

[Tatar Shots]

So by that logic, should it inspire confidence that he's above someone like Brent Seabrook?

Or you know... that point totals and size are not a good way to compare players.

 

[thalegion]

no he is not. His draft year is what makes him lower on the overall list. He is however the closest comparable on that list to Nurse for draft +1,+2 adjusted points list

I'm looking at the list that seperates power play production completely, keeps me happy

 

[Jephman]

Or you know... that point totals and size are not a good way to compare players.

I would argue that it is a good way to compare/project players. It may not be the best, but it is certainly viable.

If you look at the players near the top of the lists (Pietrangelo, Phaneuf, Seabrook) and then look at the players near the bottom (Valabik, Plante, Parent) it's clear to me that there is a correlation between points and success. Of course there are exceptions. Barker projected to be better than he was, and Coburn projecting to be worse than he is to name a couple that stand out. But on average (that is key), this tabulation does show that it can predict future NHL success. The top half of players turned out to be better NHLers than the bottom half.

 

[Blue Bullet]

I'm looking at the list that seperates power play production completely, keeps me happy

Kindl put up his points on the PP. His numbers suggested a 3rd pairing dmen that can play on the PP.

 

[McOylerz]

It's funny that people read that article and all they took away was "Jakub Kindl is the closest comparable for adjusted point totals"

Maybe you should re-read the article:

6 players were in the top 7 for adjusted point totals and non-power play point totals. One of them was Nurse, while the others were Pietrangelo, Phaneuf, Barker, Seabrook and Staal. The top 4 players on both lists are Pietrangelo, Nurse, Phaneuf and Barker.

...the former CHL players that are the best statistical comparables for Nurse are Pietrangelo, Phaneuf, Barker, Staal and Seabrook.

An excellent season for Nurse and one that would make me believe he is the Oilers future franchise defenseman would be somewhere in the 25+ point range

 

[torlev*]

I do think he will have the ability to be a #2. I agree a #1 is too far fetched given his offensive upside and the mistakes he still makes.

I think the question posed was whether he'd be a number 1 NEXT YEAR. Honestly, if he is thrust into that situation, it won't be pretty. I think he's nowhere near close to ready for that. He could probably use a year in the AHL.

I also agree that Oiler fans tend to overstate his offensive upside. He's not the kind of player that will top 40 points, ever. More like a 30 point mainstay. But there is nothing wrong with a solid, 2 way, 30 point Dman you can play in most situations. He is definitely the kind of kid you need on a successful team, in a couple of years. In fact, I'd say that kind of player is a great complement to a top Dman in the league. Seabrook to Keith, Josi to Weber, that sort of thing.

 

[torlev*]

It's funny that people read that article and all they took away was "Jakub Kindl is the closest comparable for adjusted point totals"

Maybe you should re-read the article:

Staal and Seabrook seem like excellent comparables.

 

[Flair Hay]

Something around Dion, Seabrook and Staal with a possibility for a little bit less sounds fair to me. He's going to be a very solid guy.

 

[Highmarker]

Sky is the limit for Nurse, i think he can be a top pairing d man eventually.

Why is it popular opinion that Nurse lacks offensive skills? He had similar Junior production as Morgan Rielly did at the same age and this year he was almost a PPG.

 

[kurri_17]

i see him as 2nd pair dman, which gets you flamed by oiler fans for suggesting that.

Most Oiler fans I've seen comment on him think he's likely to be a #2 if things work out.

aside from 12 yr olds - and their responses are usually pretty identifiable.

 

[Callum]

Having watched Nurse the past few years I can't see him becoming a top pairing guy. He'll be a reliable 20 minute who anchors the 2nd pair.

 

[Beatle17]

How was this weighted to show players drafted before the rule changes in 2005 (Phaneuf/Seabrook/Barker etc.) vs. players who played junior hockey in the NON clutch and grab era (Nurse/Pietreangelo etc.)?

Using points only seems like a person trying to prove a point, not actually figure out how the different era's effect the style and points. Nurse could turn out great. I have yet to see an advanced stat that could tell us who is going to be a better players.

 

[ItsTheBGB]

He's going to be a top pair D man. He has the makings of someone who can play against the other teams top line all night and shut them down, move the puck efficiently, or absolutely wheel with it. If you don't think that's top pairing, you don't understand the definition.

 

[voxel]

So between Pietro and Celine Dion? Not a bad projection. He fits the mold.

 

[lomiller1]

Your results differ from other approaches. I suspect part of this comes from your approach to comparing CHL point production to future NHL success

With these things in mind, let us repeat what we did with the forwards and look for the correlation between a player’s junior points in their first draft eligible season and their best season in the NHL.

The problem with this is that while junior point production by defensemen may not correlate strongly with NHL point totals it DOES correlate strongly with the players likelihood of having a successful NHL career.

From this article:
http://thats-offside.blogspot.ca/2013/06/defense-defensemen-and-draft.html
Defencemen picked in the rounds 1 – 3 of the NHL draft who fail to get at least 0.6 points per game have only ~10% chance of ever becoming regular NHL players. Defencemen who put up more than 0.6 points per game have a ~50% chance to someday become NHL regulars but not necessarily point producers at the NHL level
You get a low correlation between CHL and NHL points because essentially all NHL defensemen who came from the CHL were high point producers in the CHL.


With that in mind you can also expand comparisons by normalizing to NHL league equivalent as is done here.
http://www.theprojectionproject.com
Looking for comparables that match each of Nurse’s Draft, Draft+1, Draft+2 years and within 2 inches of his height (6’2” – 6’6”) there are 15 comparables. Of those only 1 (Byfuglien) reached “elite” point totals in the NHL while 2 more (Brodie, Colaiacovo) slot in as 1st pair. Only 6 of the 15 became NHL regulars.

The sample size is large if you look for cumulative instead of matching each year but the percentages are nearly the same with 41 of 103 going on to be NHL regulars

First rounder’s do tend to have a better chance that later picks with similar numbers but I think it’s also worth considering WHY CHL point production has such a big impact on chances to make the NHL but not production once they get there. IMO it’s because you can’t play D at all in today’s NHL without a minimum level of skill and hockey IQ needed to move the puck out of the zone against NHL calibre forwards. These skills almost invariably lead to high point production in the CHL even if the player isn’t skilled enough to be a point producer at the NHL level.

Again IMO this is what’s going to limit Nurse. He can use his athletic ability to carry the puck but his reads and discussion making can be suspect. This works to great success for him in Junior but I think he will struggle with puck possession at the NHL level where he has less time to make reads and less space to carry the puck. As with all prospects we still need to wait and see.

 

[Homesick]

I really don't see him as being a top pairing defenseman but I didn't think Pietrangelo would either 2 years after his draft.

 

[KCC]

Having watched Nurse the past few years I can't see him becoming a top pairing guy. He'll be a reliable 20 minute who anchors the 2nd pair.

First pair or second it doesn't matter. That would still make him a top pairing defenseman.

 

[hamzarocks]

Sky is the limit for Nurse, i think he can be a top pairing d man eventually.

Why is it popular opinion that Nurse lacks offensive skills? He had similar Junior production as Morgan Rielly did at the same age and this year he was almost a PPG.

just to let you know, nurse plays for one of the best team in the ohl(and all of the chl for that matter), Rielly had 54 pts in 60 gms on one of the worst teams in the whl and was coming off a acl injury. I dont see him having as good offensive game as rielly had at his age.

 

[thalegion]

just to let you know, nurse plays for one of the best team in the ohl(and all of the chl for that matter), Rielly had 54 pts in 60 gms on one of the worst teams in the whl and was coming off a acl injury. I dont see him having as good offensive game as rielly had at his age.

I don't doubt Rielly is likely the better offensive D man but as far as the total package D goes I think i'd take Nurse, man I hope he is the real deal.

 

[Nalyd Psycho]

I don't think it inspires more confidence in Oilers fans knowing that Jakub Kindl is the closest comparable for adjusted point totals in Draft +1,+2 years.

Kindl padded his numbers on the PP more than Nurse did.

That said, Nurse's lack of progress over time means he doesn't compare as favourably to Pietrangelo, Phaneuf and Seabrook. But he looks like those are the only three who look like better prospects. So a 2-3 d-man is still a reasonable projection.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

I don't see him as a big time offensive defenseman, but a solid 2-way guy with tons of intangibles.

 

[KevinRedkey]

Take best (Petro) and the worst (Barker) out, and that leaves Seabrook, Staal, and Phaneuf as the closest comparable. Not bad at all.

I don't think he's a #1 guy, but can be a very solid #2 (like Seabrook, Phaneuf, or Staal), or an anchor at @ #3

 

[Leafs87]

These numbers do look very solid coupled with his unnatural speed for his size I know he's a player I can't wait to see, still deciding between a Nurse jersey or a Mcdavid

Go with nurse seeing how everyone will have McDavid

 

[ps241]

Is it just me or does if feel like the weight of the world is on this kid? Thank god Chia added Sekera and we'll see about Reinhart but I feel like there is an inordinately large amount of attention (possibly expectations) on Nurse? Maybe I am getting my read wrong?