Speculation: Larkin trade return

[Dotter]

we get 1st 27, Danila Yurov, Bobby Brink RFA rights, Jesper Wallstedt & Charlie Stramel

for Dylan Larkin and Mason Appleton (50% retained).

Trade Wallstedt + Yurov for Lundell

Trade Cossa + Stramel for Trevor Connelly

Package looks like: Lundell + Connelly + 1st + Bobby Brink

 

[jaster]

Finnie ($0.92) - Copp ($5.63) - Raymond ($8.08)
Kasper ($0.89)- Compher ($5.10) - MBN ($0.95)
UFA - Rasmussen ($3.20) - Appleton ($2.90)
Mazur ($0.87) - Danielson ($0.91) - UFA
UFA/Lombardi ($0.81)
UFA

Chiarot ($3.85) - Mo ($8.55)
Ed ($8) - ASP ($0.94)
AlJo ($1.13) - JBD ($1.60)
UFA

Postava ($0.98)
UFA

Calculating the above, we'd be at $55.3M against a $76.9M floor. We'd be chasing $21.6M with a need to sign 3 forwards (or 4 if we toss Lombardi out), 1 defenseman, and 1 goalie. That averages $4.32M per player (or $3.73M per player without Lombardi). That's steep, but again, plenty of UFAs to pick from. More Rasmussens exist.

Alternatively, you could hold on to Debrincat. Now you're chasing $13.7M with a need for 4 UFAs. About $3.4M per player. MOAR RASMUSSENS.

 

[jaster]

There are like 6 other teams well below the cap floor. I think some of you are overestimating how attainable adding 40M+ of salary would be.

If it were $40M, that would indeed be difficult. Luckily, it would be much less than that.

 

[SirloinUB]

Its an option to take on some bad short term contracts/situations.

I think that market is drying up. Most of the league has a bunch of cap space so few teams need to dump salaries. In addition to that, several other teams are even more below the cap floor than we currently are. Lastly, a barren ufa class will limit our ability to add salary/players via free agency.

I think you are overestimating how easy it will be to add that kind of money.

 

[DoctorComrade]

Last year the Wings were playing at a .500 points % from Jan 1st till the end of the year. If you only do February thats even worse at a .423 points % from Feb 1st till the end of the year. The first one gets them to 84 points while the second gets them to 71 points. It won't take much to make this team tank that hard. You get rid of Larkin, Faulk, and Gibson and this team is picking in the top 5 next draft, maybe even top 3.

This team is 1 injury away from being a bottom 5 team already and if you remove those 3 they are.

Edited points because hockey ref is dumb.

 

[jkutswings]

I don't really buy that we're beggars, though. I know the mood has shifted here with Fleriduh off the table as a trade partner but the Wings are still sitting on the best available trade chip on the market. It's up to Yzerman not to piss in our Two Hearted Ales with the return.

Totally agree with the overall sentiment...even if I don't know how people could taste the difference between Two Hearted Ale with and without urine.

 

[Ezekial]

Brothers reunion probably been cooking for longer time.

That and Larkin requested the trade a while ago, it only leaked more recently. So it's not like he demanded a trade asap, we just have to wait and see.

 

[Frk It]

Things change though, right?

They traded up to land Cossa and now they are allegedly ready to cut bait.

Possibly, yeah.

I just remember right around the draft hearing something about teams being concerned about his playing weight/conditioning.

I do not know if that contributed to us passing on him, or if that’s still a concern.

 

[schuelma24]

Wonder if there’s an opportunity with Vegas and Seattle, who is desperate for a top 6 forward. Dorofeyev for the 7th+O’Brien, then that’s flipped to the Wings. Of course that assumes Vegas wants to love off of Dorofeyev

 

[jkutswings]

I think that market is drying up. Most of the league has a bunch of cap space so few teams need to dump salaries. In addition to that, several other teams are even more below the cap floor than we currently are. Lastly, a barren ufa class will limit our ability to add salary/players via free agency.

I think you are overestimating how easy it will be to add that kind of money.

Extend Edvinsson. That's $9-10M depending on years.

Take your pick on 2 lousy free agents. That's another $10M. Halfway there.

Hey, Carey Price? Wanna be our tank commander? Your $10.5M AAV expiring albatross of a deal just gained another 2 years.

I'm already 3/4 of the way there without breaking a sweat and without adding anybody new who can win any games.

Now I'm not saying to jump to this strategy. But if things really go scorched earth and Detroit needs to hit the cap floor while still being awful, it's absolutely possible.

 

[Waldorf]

Wonder if there’s an opportunity with Vegas and Seattle, who is desperate for a top 6 forward. Dorofeyev for the 7th+O’Brien, then that’s flipped to the Wings. Of course that assumes Vegas wants to love off of Dorofeyev

Dorofeyev is the one asset they can really trade that has value outside Connelly.

 

[jaster]

Totally agree with the overall sentiment...even if I don't know how people could taste the difference between Two Hearted Ale with and without urine.

Um, are you not able to recognize cat urine??

 

[SirloinUB]

Extend Edvinsson. That's $9-10M depending on years.

Take your pick on 2 lousy free agents. That's another $10M. Halfway there.

Hey, Carey Price? Wanna be our tank commander? Your $10.5M AAV expiring albatross of a deal just gained another 2 years.

I'm already 3/4 of the way there without breaking a sweat and without adding anybody new who can win any games.

Now I'm not saying to jump to this strategy. But if things really go scorched earth and Detroit needs to hit the cap floor while still being awful, it's absolutely possible.

1) Edvinsson on max term should be less than 9M.

2) No guarantee those UFAs well sign with us when other teams will be offering them overpayments as well.

3) isn't carey price retired? Pretty sure the league would consider giving a retired player a massive contract cap circumvention.

You're at best half way there, with several big assumptions that may or may not materialize.

 

[jkutswings]

Um, are you not able to recognize cat urine??

I didn't know there were beers that required a black light!

 

[Frk It]

Being able to make it to the Cap Floor wouldn’t crack the top 100 of concerns I have with this team.

 

[SirloinUB]

Being able to make it to the Cap Floor wouldn’t crack the top 100 of concerns I have with this team.

Currently it is not an issue. The discourse spun off a proposal to send out 40M of salary in addition to the Larkin trade.

If we send out 48M of contracts hitting the floor would absolutely be a problem. Though, its not a likely outcome either way.

 

[jkutswings]

1) Edvinsson on max term should be less than 9M.

2) No guarantee those UFAs well sign with us when other teams will be offering them overpayments as well.

3) isn't carey price retired? Pretty sure the league would consider giving a retired player a massive contract cap circumvention.

You're at best half way there, with several big assumptions that may or may not materialize.

But in a 2 minute message board conversation, if a couple of fans are somewhere in the ballpark of getting halfway there, do you really think that an actual GM with weeks/months before the compliance deadline couldn't figure out a plan to reach the cap floor?

It's not without any degree of challenge. But if Yzerman can't even handle a scenario of this degree, then why is he still employed?

 

[Frk It]

Currently it is not an issue. The discourse spun off a proposal to send out 40M of salary in addition to the Larkin trade.

If we send out 48M of contracts hitting the floor would absolutely be a problem. Though, its not a likely outcome either way.

We’re not dumping that much cap and there are a million levers you can pull.

 

[jaster]

1) Edvinsson on max term should be less than 9M.

2) No guarantee those UFAs well sign with us when other teams will be offering them overpayments as well.

3) isn't carey price retired? Pretty sure the league would consider giving a retired player a massive contract cap circumvention.

You're at best half way there, with several big assumptions that may or may not materialize.

On the surface, signing 5 players to a total of $21.6M doesn't seem that difficult, but I'll admit that I'm not doing a deep dive on all the players available or how much competition there will be or any other variables tied to the endeavor, so you could be right that it's not viable. But I'd have to be convinced, for now I'm thinking that's pretty doable.

 

[SirloinUB]

But in a 2 minute message board conversation, if a couple of fans are somewhere in the ballpark of getting halfway there, do you really think that an actual GM with weeks/months before the compliance deadline couldn't figure out a plan to reach the cap floor?

It's not without any degree of challenge. But if Yzerman can't even handle a scenario of this degree, then why is he still employed?

Who wants yzerman to be employed? But frankly, I think many GMs of bottom dwelling teams would have a hard time adding 40M of cap hits this summer.

The NHL is a closed system, Today, 8 teams are collectively 66M below the cap floor. Adding an additional 40M of minimum required spend is simply not realistic.

 

[SirloinUB]

We’re not dumping that much cap and there are a million levers you can pull.

Definitely not. On both points.

 

[newfy]

Had it been Minnesota it probably would've happened already.

Yeah I dont get this sentiment all of a sudden. Yzerman has held out just shipping him to Minnesota for a weak package this far, Lebrun has said they'll need a third team for that trade to happen, and a worse asset just got traded for a lot.... now people think Yzerman is just gonna give in to Miinesota? I don't see it at all.

I think the market just got set, and the first domino fell. This is just gonna make the arms race happen. You think Tampa isn't gonna up their offer for example? Try to make a run while Kucherov and Hedman are still around?

I agree... if he was going to go to Minnesota for what they're offering, it would be done by now. I also don't think this trade takes Florida out of the running actually.. Lundell could still be in play if they want Larkin

 

[Frk It]

Definitely not. On both points.

When’s the last time a team wasn’t able to reach the floor?

 

[jaster]

I didn't know there were beers that required a black light!

It's not required, just drink it!

 

[SirloinUB]

When’s the last time a team wasn’t able to reach the floor?

When was the las time the cap went up this quickly? when was the last the UFA market was *this* barren? When was the last time 7 other teams a combined 64M below the cap floor?

And then when was the last time all of these things happened in one summer?


To clarify, this is not currently a problem. As you previously said, we aren't dumping 40M in contracts this summer. Id only bring this up as problem in relation to people suggesting we ship out several guys in addition to Larkin.