Confirmed Trade: [LAK/WPG] Pierre-Luc Dubois (signs 8 years, $8.5M AAV) for Gabe Vilardi, Alex Iafallo, Rasmus Kupari, 2024 2nd round pick

[PensandCaps]

He was on pace for 90 points before getting injured. He only missed 9 games but there suffered a major production drop off the last 25 games or so. The Jets as a team also had something like a 4% on ice shooting percentage from mid-March onward so that didn't help much either. He's been a durable for his entire career, so I doubt there is a repeat. He's easily an 80+ point center.

"Easily" Despite never coming close ?

It’s kinda wild thing to say that a player who is yet to hit 65 points in his career is ”easily 80+ point center”.

Not even PPG once either.

 

[lomiller1]

It’s kinda wild thing to say that a player who is yet to hit 65 points in his career is ”easily 80+ point center”.

Players peak between 25 and 28. It's not unreasonable to expect a player who was pacing at a 90+ points as a 24 year old will produce 80+ points in his peak years.

 

[OKR]

Players peak between 25 and 28. It's not unreasonable to expect a player who was pacing at a 90+ points as a 24 year old will produce 80+ points in his peak years.

He was on pace for 90+ for like 30 games, he would’ve had to score at 2.0 ppg in those 9 games he missed to have hit 80 last season. Im not saying it’s entirely impossible but he would have to score 17 more points than his career high is, that’s not ”easily 80+ player”.

 

[ijuka]

Players peak between 25 and 28. It's not unreasonable to expect a player who was pacing at a 90+ points as a 24 year old will produce 80+ points in his peak years.

25-28? What supports this claim? I've been under the impression that the peak is 23-26 instead.

 

[TS Quint]

25-28? What supports this claim? I've been under the impression that the peak is 23-26 instead.

What difference does it make? Applying averages to specific players is a fools game. An average isn’t applied to every single player it’s a variety of data points.

 

[lomiller1]

25-28? What supports this claim? I've been under the impression that the peak is 23-26 instead.

I've seen one article suggesting 5v5 point production may start to approach it's peak as early as 23, but even that one had PP production peaking at 2-3 years later. Most suggest that overall production peaks at about 24-26 then plateaus for a few years.

There is also some evidence that better players maintain their production rates later into their 20's, so looking at just NHL averages may not entirely reflect the players we are actually interested in. A way this skewing could possibly happen is that a bottom 6 player who has a carter year early on establishes himself as an "NHL player" and gets more latitude to stick in the NHL even through they never constantly produce at that level. Meanwhile another player who doesn't have the puck luck or whatever to have that big year early in their career never really gets much chance to play in their 25's-30's. This means on the lower end players are going to have early peaks and long declines which would skew the overall averages. That's just a theory though, it could just be that better players age better or are not as dependent on pure physical tools.

 

[Kurrilino]

25-28? What supports this claim? I've been under the impression that the peak is 23-26 instead.

I think he is right, i read it somewhere as well that the NHL managers see the peak 25-28.
The reasoning was that a player has to grow a body beside the hockey skills.
A 23 year old can't physically compete with with fully grown man.
I would have to find it though

 

[Kingfan1967]

It isn't unreasonable to believe that PLD will play "better" when playing in a city he likes vs playing in cities he didn't, just human nature.

 

[lomiller1]

It isn't unreasonable to believe that PLD will play "better" when playing in a city he likes vs playing in cities he didn't, just human nature.

He played really well in Winnipeg last year, other than the noticeable drop-off after his injury. If he repeats that without the injury his could be in the 90's. Remember the Kings have a much better PP than the Jets did last year, that could net him some additional points as well.

 

[Washed Up 29YearOld]

25-28? What supports this claim? I've been under the impression that the peak is 23-26 instead.

it's 25-27 historically.

If you were under the impression it was 23 you must've missed on many player predictions.
No disrespect though. Players peaking at 23 is a common misconception although does happen. Look at McDavid just did at 25-26 that he couldn't do at 24.

 

[ColbyChaos]

PLD is the most overrated player in existence with how much he is talked up compared to what he’s actually done in the league.

 

[TS Quint]

it's 25-27 historically.

If you were under the impression it was 23 you must've missed on many player predictions.
No disrespect though. Players peaking at 23 is a common misconception although does happen. Look at McDavid just did at 25-26 that he couldn't do at 24.

And some players peak earlier and some later. But this isn't a rule for every specific player. It's just an average of all players good and bad. There are always outlier seasons as well. Who knows, maybe Dubois will have his best season when he's 30.

 

[Trash Panda]

And some players peak earlier and some later. But this isn't a rule for every specific player. It's just an average of all players good and bad. There are always outlier seasons as well. Who knows, maybe Dubois will have his best season when he's 30.

I mean, Kopitar turned in his Hart-worthy season at the age of 30-31, so there is some truth to this.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

He played really well in Winnipeg last year, other than the noticeable drop-off after his injury. If he repeats that without the injury his could be in the 90's. Remember the Kings have a much better PP than the Jets did last year, that could net him some additional points as well.

I'm not as sold on him as some others are but he DOES bring one thing to the Kings they've sorely missed for a few years and that's a big aggressive body with good hands near the net.

Kings really do need someone that can convert from the circles in with how much chaos they can create in the slot. They've missed Dustin Brown in that regard; he was so good with Kopi as a bulldozer because he would just go to the net with his stick on the ground and Kopitar could hit him or the goalies pads and make it easy.

It will be interesting to see where he fits in--I mean a lot of us are pencilling him next to Fiala which sounds lethal--a guy as fast as Ehlers and with hands like Connor who can lug the puck through the neutral zone and attract attention--I mean PLD could just be a target dummy next to that guy and should get some serious looks.

The other thing is he's another big body for the PP. I mean the Kings aren't exactly tough but it's a lot of high-skill beef out there if you're rolling PLD-Byfield-Kopitar around.

 

[Surf Nutz]

I'm not as sold on him as some others are but he DOES bring one thing to the Kings they've sorely missed for a few years and that's a big aggressive body with good hands near the net.

Kings really do need someone that can convert from the circles in with how much chaos they can create in the slot. They've missed Dustin Brown in that regard; he was so good with Kopi as a bulldozer because he would just go to the net with his stick on the ground and Kopitar could hit him or the goalies pads and make it easy.

It will be interesting to see where he fits in--I mean a lot of us are pencilling him next to Fiala which sounds lethal--a guy as fast as Ehlers and with hands like Connor who can lug the puck through the neutral zone and attract attention--I mean PLD could just be a target dummy next to that guy and should get some serious looks.

The other thing is he's another big body for the PP. I mean the Kings aren't exactly tough but it's a lot of high-skill beef out there if you're rolling PLD-Byfield-Kopitar around.

Ok man give Cacoon J back his acount...

 

[biturbo19]

I think the conversation about Dubois potential production with LA also really has to account for his role and usage. As long as he makes it onto the top PP Unit, i think his even strength production could end up benefitting from split attentions with the Kopitar line, as well as having Danault in the fold to handle heavy minutes defensively. That could free Dubois up for some extra production.

 

[KingsHockey24]

I think the conversation about Dubois potential production with LA also really has to account for his role and usage. As long as he makes it onto the top PP Unit, i think his even strength production could end up benefitting from split attentions with the Kopitar line, as well as having Danault in the fold to handle heavy minutes defensively. That could free Dubois up for some extra production.

Dubois - Kopitar - Fiala
Kempe - Doughty

Is what I'd imagine the PP1 would be.

 

[biturbo19]

Dubois - Kopitar - Fiala
Kempe - Doughty

Is what I'd imagine the PP1 would be.

Yeah. I'd imagine they do everything they can to get their fancy new toy on that top PP. Kinda leaves you wishing they had another RH shot on there somewhere, but sometimes it can work anyway.

That'll be a big decider of his overall production though. Whereas i think his ability to slot in just right at evens should be helpful in potentially boosting his numbers in that respect.

 

[KingsHockey24]

Yeah. I'd imagine they do everything they can to get their fancy new toy on that top PP. Kinda leaves you wishing they had another RH shot on there somewhere, but sometimes it can work anyway.

That'll be a big decider of his overall production though. Whereas i think his ability to slot in just right at evens should be helpful in potentially boosting his numbers in that respect.

We do have Viktor Arvidsson as well. I'd imagine Brandt Clarke will point the 2nd unit.

 

[biturbo19]

We do have Viktor Arvidsson as well. I'd imagine Brandt Clarke will point the 2nd unit.

Yeah. I'd wager they try to get Dubois on there, but if it doesn't end up working, i could see Arvidsson getting the not just as a pragmatic consideration. Not sure Dubois bumps any of those other guys, so that'd hurt his production quite a bit if it happens.

 

[summer tooth]

PLD is the most overrated player in existence with how much he is talked up compared to what he’s actually done in the league.

That's because he has a rough and tumble style that won't always show up on paper.

 

[Bouboumaster]

#FreeDanault

 

[TS Quint]

Yeah. I'd wager they try to get Dubois on there, but if it doesn't end up working, i could see Arvidsson getting the not just as a pragmatic consideration. Not sure Dubois bumps any of those other guys, so that'd hurt his production quite a bit if it happens.

Dubois is pretty good in the net front/bumper spot. Im not sure who the Kings use there but I think that’s the spot he’s competing for On the PP.

 

[GreatSaveEssensa]

I mean, Kopitar turned in his Hart-worthy season at the age of 30-31, so there is some truth to this.

Blake Wheeler is another late bloomer.

 

[Finnflash]

Why was there no posts on this thread today?