Speculation: LA Kings Offseason Thread

[Chazz Reinhold]

Pretty cool article from one of the analytics nerds who has some writings about projecting prospects and impacts: How Sure are we about a Prospect?

Two takeaways: (1) seeing Stutzle listed as one of the few projected elite prospects for the next decade hurts and (2) Byfield needs to take a big step forward this season.

One very interesting exercise was to compare a player’s projection with his actual career, at first to see if the model was good enough, then to dig into the details.

And something jumped to our eyes. Age is a HUGE factor, as a proxy for how mature a player is. This sounds obvious, but numbers are maybe bigger than what we thought.

At 16 years old, your current performance determines 56% of your future career.

At 17 years old, it goes up to 65%.

At 18 years old, it goes up to 70%.

At 19 years old, it goes up to 76%.

At 22 years old, where our model stops considering you as a prospect, your current performance explains 83% of your future career. What you see is what you’ll get.

 

[kinghock]

Graves would be a nice add still but salary for sure needs to be moved out. The upgrade from Durzi to Graves would be great.

Graves is big, but like Durzi has very low defensive hockey IQ.
Colorado and NJ already learned it.
I would not trade for him.

 

[JTeller97]

He hasn’t been happy anywhere. I’d avoid him.

To be fair he's been in Columbus under Torts and Winnipeg which has been a pretty toxic locker room by all accounts. Easily 2 of the worst places to be in the past 5 years. I love the player and I think he'd be a phenomenal fit, could you imagine a Fiala-Dubois-Vilardi line? I don't know enough about the person to really pass judgment and I saw a report he wants 9 million per season which is ridiculous I think he's much more of a 6.5-7 guy, so that would leave me hesitant (not to mention the acquisition cost)

 

[Johnny Utah]

Keegan Kolesar destroys Tkachuk with a hit - would love for the Kings to have a player like this, but we don't anymore. We did in Lemieux who actually fought Kolesar once or twice.

Love how Blake keeps building a roster full of softies. Vegas defense is huge.

Blake was a huge physical D who laid the body and could fight if he had to and was surrounded his entire career by guys named McSorley, Parker and Cummins - yet, he continues to build a small and or soft roster with no criminals.

 

[Schmooley]

Keegan Kolesar destroys Tkachuk with a hit - would love for the Kings to have a player like this, but we don't anymore. We did in Lemieux who actually fought Kolesar once or twice.

Love how Blake keeps building a roster full of softies. Vegas defense is huge.

Blake was a huge physical D who laid the body and could fight if he had to and was surrounded his entire career by guys named McSorley, Parker and Cummins - yet, he continues to build a small and or soft roster with no criminals.

I wish you were the gm. Would finally get to see the Undertaker and Stone Cold Steve Austin to lace em up for the Kings.
But really you are right the Kings are soft compared to the teams left playing right now.

 

[chris kontos]

Oh, really? I thought the book on him in his draft year was his incredible work ethic. Did that change?

In columbus he had big issues with tortorella that helped cause the trade for lainae in winnipeg. Maybe torts burnt it out of him?

 

[Johnny Utah]

I wish you were the gm. Would finally get to see the Undertaker and Stone Cold Steve Austin to lace em up for the Kings.
But really you are right the Kings are soft compared to the teams left playing right now.

I do love Stone Cold and Taker.

 

[21Dog]

I do love Stone Cold and Taker.

RIP The Sheik

 

[Surf Nutz]

As much as I would hate to see RV traded, it would open up more ice time for Kaliyev. He absolutely needs to be in a top-9 role (preferably top-6). I dread the day that the Kings trade him for a 2nd pairing defensemen, and he explodes into a 30-40 goal threat on another team.

L2 = Iafallo - Danault -Moore
L3= Fiala - Vilardi - Kaliyev

 

[Surf Nutz]

Byfield is 20 f***ing years old fellas. Think about that before you start bitching about him.

And Turcotte with all his injuries not even noted as guys gleefully declare he is a bust and one of the worst picks ever.
You can put him on the list with an * for multiple head and other injuries.
The group think here is overwhelming, especially when you take a break and come back fresh and see it.
The train is off the track and rolling across the plains.
Get a grip!

 

[chris kontos]

And Turcotte with all his injuries not even noted as guys gleefully declare he is a bust and one of the worst picks ever.
You can put him on the list with an * for multiple head and other injuries.
The group think here is overwhelming, especially when you take a break and come back fresh and see it.
The train is off the track and rolling across the plains.
Get a grip!

Mxplxtcyst pzfrrry

 

[Johnny Utah]

Guerin and Minny is looking for some scoring maybe Blake can’t send Arvidsson and some pieces for Foligno and pieces or something like that. Kings save a million, get the type of player they don’t have for a player they have.

 

[Surf Nutz]

Guerin and Minny is looking for some scoring maybe Blake can’t send Arvidsson and some pieces for Foligno and pieces or something like that. Kings save a million, get the type of player they don’t have for a player they have.

That would be nice but Arvi's should be for picks or AHL prospects if you can't get picks.
First and foremost that space goes for an above Copley level GT.
Rather than Foligno it be nice if they could get someone cheaper and less established who has the potential to be like a Foligno.

 

[Johnny Utah]

That would be nice but Arvi's should be for picks or AHL prospects if you can't get picks.
First and foremost that space goes for an above Copley level GT.
Rather than Foligno it be nice if they could get someone cheaper and less established who has the potential to be like a Foligno.

Trent Frederic? He's going to want at least over 1.5 million...He made just over 1 million last year.

Not sure who else is out there...

 

[Surf Nutz]

Yes , I like that type of value better for now.
Like many positions after next season $25 mil is coming off the books, so that when you want to have your potential long term solutions signing.

 

[JTeller97]

Guerin and Minny is looking for some scoring maybe Blake can’t send Arvidsson and some pieces for Foligno and pieces or something like that. Kings save a million, get the type of player they don’t have for a player they have.

Was thinking about a Durzi for Foligno deal. Durzi can replace klingberg/Dumba at a 1.7 mill cap hit

 

[Surf Nutz]

Was thinking about a Durzi for Foligno deal. Durzi can replace klingberg/Dumba at a 1.7 mill cap hit

I think Blake will prefer to hold Durzi until at least the deadline , And let Arvidson go instead.
This keeps the less experienced Spence developing longer in the AHL while keeping the cost of his contract next summer down.
as he has done with Fagemo, Bjornfot and others.

 

[KingsOfCali25]

I'd make a move with Calgary. Arvidsson, Madden, 4th for Zadorov and Vladar.

Gives the Kings a big stay at home D that can throw the body and a young-ish 1A/1B goalie. Let's Vilardi or Kaliyev bump up into move offensive roles.

 

[Statto]

Has anyone posted about Buckley being appointed goaltender coach? Haven’t spotted it so I have now done so.

 

[DrHansReinhardt]

If we can't trade Lizzo then the Kings should buy him out. The cap hit for a buyout is only 280k for 2 years. Saves 1.4ish this year and only 280k against the cap the following year. QB needs to be 3C next season.

 

[BringTheReign]

I'd make a move with Calgary. Arvidsson, Madden, 4th for Zadorov and Vladar.

Gives the Kings a big stay at home D that can throw the body and a young-ish 1A/1B goalie. Let's Vilardi or Kaliyev bump up into move offensive roles.

I’m not Zadorov’s biggest fan, but this is a great idea on the whole. I’m not sure Calgary does this though. If we swap Durzi in for Madden maybe they’re more interested.

 

[GameNight]

what about Hanifin?

 

[KingsHockey24]

Trent Frederic? He's going to want at least over 1.5 million...He made just over 1 million last year.

Not sure who else is out there...

I'll take him back. 1 year/1M

 

[chris kontos]

I think we over value the hell out of durzi. He's not an nhl level defenseman. Cant score enough to offset the liability of being totally lost in his own end. Its like hes a fantasy land kale makar- without the scoring, skating or defensive play.
I mean other teams have tape of his play- or am i completely wrong on this?

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

I think we over value the hell out of durzi. He's not an nhl level defenseman. Cant score enough to offset the liability of being totally lost in his own end. Its like hes a fantasy land kale makar- without the scoring, skating or defensive play.
I mean other teams have tape of his play- or am i completely wrong on this?

Both.....teams have tape of his play, and you are wrong....

By no means is Durzi an elite shut down must have defense....but people acting like he's the defensive equivalent of Bambi have no clue...

Watch the games again this summer, you will see Durzi do some absolutely stupid shit, 100%, and it stands out because immediately after, or most immediately after, scoring chance, goal etc.....but watch how many times he makes the right decision, actually watch from Game 1....to Game 82, and keep a running tab, early in the season, negative to positive, probably 3 to 1....as the season grows, that shrinks, and goes to about 1 to 3 in the latter half of the season.

People tend to highlight and focus on the negative because that's what they've been told, or they don't know enough to see the positives in his game.