Production does matter, especially when it comes to forwards you used high picks on. That is why the "stat watching" stuff never made sense to me when it came to many of the Kings high picks who struggled offensively immediately upon entering the organization. I mean if you use a top-10 pick on a forward and the player just doesn't score at levels even close to where he should, it's not "stat watching" to point it out, it's a very big problem and should be discussed as one, because in the majority of cases the player does not recover to what the pre-draft expectation was. But often times fans and teams themselves defer to excuses as to why the production hasn't been there, even when it's not close to being there. This is why I think NHL teams should be more aggressive in looking to trade young players if there is any concern about the player not only failing to return the draft capital used on them but more importantly if they will reach whatever their current value is at the time. And in theory the team itself should be more onto flaws in the player than maybe the rest of the league is, as they aren't paying as much attention and may continue to defer to their pre-draft analysis, where the player was heavily scouted. This is why I would have traded Turcotte at either the 2020 or 2021 drafts, not only did the drafting of QB block a likely path for him in both the immediate and the long-term, the Kings were also going to be going in a different direction with the Danault signing, there was literally no room. Faber and Grans are the two notable young players who were actually moved. Faber had (other than Clarke) probably the most dominant D+1/D+2 seasons of any prospect taken by Blake and was the major piece in a trade for a fringe star winger, which as much love Faber was a good trade for what the Kings were trying to accomplish. And Grans was probably declining a bit and was part of the CP cap debacle, so harder to evaluate.
As far as Thomas, he has obviously battled injuries. He showed some offensive production last year in a small sample size, the tough thing for him, as discussed before is the competition from other similar players, guys who he will be fighting for those bottom line scraps. Laferriere, Turcotte, JAD. There are just so few spots for these guys. And a guy like Thomas is beginning to age out, he turns 24 in January, if you are 24 and not yet an NHL regular (never even played a game) the odds are pretty against you becoming one after that. This is why it's such an important camp for guys like him and JAD.
Obviously as you go further down the draft production doesn't matter as much as you are more likely to be looking for depth pieces or taking shots on flawed players. But at the top, yeah it matters, a lot.