Speculation: LA Kings Offseason Thread

[head eyes]

For all the consternation about Byfield, PLD was barely a better even-strength player than Byfield last year. PLD scored 2.18 points/60 while Byfield was at 1.88 points/60. Byfield actually had a higher primary assist rate (0.9 per 60 vs. 0.73 per 60). The odds that Byfield runs such a low shooting percentage next season are very low. If Byfield had even an even an average shooting percentage last season, he would have scored at the exact same rate as PLD at even strength (which would have resulted in only 3 more goals at even strength).

Paint the picture any way you like.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Watch Dubois wind up in Boston now that they dumped Hall to Chicago.

 

[Chazz Reinhold]

Paint the picture any way you like.

Ok. I’m sorry that PLD is barely better now at even strength than Byfield was in his first half season in the NHL. (Several of PLD’s seasons have been worse at even strength than what Byfield did this past season.)

 

[Jungle Boy]

Hope we get Dubois, Dillon + one or two 4th liners and play Edmonton once more

 

[Schrute farms]

It's probably the last 1 or 2 years of his tenure anyways if they don't win.

If he makes this trade, there's not much more Blake could do with all the limited assets and cap space going forward. so either this works out great for him and the Kings win big -- saving his job. Or he gets fired in 2-3 years. One way or another (if he does this trade), it's going to work itself out: win big & stay...or fail & fired. Either way it a win for me

 

[Sol]

For all the consternation about Byfield, PLD was barely a better even-strength player than Byfield last year. PLD scored 2.18 points/60 while Byfield was at 1.88 points/60. Byfield actually had a higher primary assist rate (0.9 per 60 vs. 0.73 per 60). The odds that Byfield runs such a low shooting percentage next season are very low. If Byfield had even an even an average shooting percentage last season, he would have scored at the exact same rate as PLD at even strength (which would have resulted in only 3 more goals at even strength).

Why even bring that up? Byfield hasn’t been able to play center since entering the league. His best season was being baby sat by Kopitar and Kempe who suddenly has become a top goal scorer.

I know discrediting players is a big deal on these boards, but to say that PLD and Byfield are on the same level is blatant obfuscation. If the Kings are going to be trading for PLD it should be around byfield +. Byfield can’t even score more than 3 goals in 50+ games. There’s so many question marks with him that it makes sense to trade him. At least we all know Vilardi is a potential superstar in the making.

This is how it is.

Vilardi>PLD>Byfield.

 

[head eyes]

Ok. I’m sorry that PLD is barely better at even strength than Byfield was in his first half season in the NHL.

Hockey is more than even strength pp/60 while x is on the ice with y. I don't even want this trade to go through, I'm just saying if it does, I'd rather keep Gabe over Byfield.

 

[Chazz Reinhold]

Hockey is more than even strength pp/60 while x is on the ice with y. I don't even want this trade to go through, I'm just saying if it does, I'd rather keep Gabe over Byfield.

I didn’t say anything about “x is on the ice with y.” You’re just making stuff up now. I pointed to very straightforward numbers. A large majority of an NHL game is played at even strength, which is why it provides extensive insight into what a player does most of the time he’s on the ice.

Byfield has barely played on the PP in his 40ish NHL games so it’s far too small of a sample size to consider anyway.

 

[King'sPawn]

What do you think of Austin?
Hes been pretty right on with stuff IMO

Fairly new to his work (started following him after Jesse's recommendation) - really like his stuff and I appreciate the way he breaches topics others don't. I love the different angles presented!

If you haven't started following him, I really encourage you to do so (I think it's lahockeynow.com?) Of course, I'd be remiss if I didn't ask you all to bookmark mayorsmanor.com, especially around the draft.

But I truly recommend you follow the contributors that resonate with you - I understand the frustration of them not asking the questions you want them to ask, but I know that a lot of effort is put forth to give us the best content they can.

 

[johnjm22]

For all the consternation about Byfield, PLD was barely a better even-strength player than Byfield last year. PLD scored 2.18 points/60 while Byfield was at 1.88 points/60. Byfield actually had a higher primary assist rate (0.9 per 60 vs. 0.73 per 60). The odds that Byfield runs such a low shooting percentage next season are very low. If Byfield had even an even an average shooting percentage last season, he would have scored at the exact same rate as PLD at even strength (which would have resulted in only 3 more goals at even strength).

All good points. Whenever I look at PLD's deeper numbers they always look so unimpressive.

He's good on the PP. What else is he good at? Not much from what I can tell.

 

[Lt Dan]

But I truly recommend you follow the contributors that resonate with you - I understand the frustration of them not asking the questions you want them to ask, but I know that a lot of effort is put forth to give us the best content they can.

This is the only account on Twitter worth following

https://twitter.com/Dadsaysjokes

 

[Maynard]

This is the only account on Twitter worth following

https://twitter.com/Dadsaysjokes

You ever shoot a bear in your pajamas?

What’s a bear doing in your pajamas?

 

[head eyes]

I didn’t say anything about “x is on the ice with y.” You’re just making stuff up now. I pointed to very straightforward numbers. A large majority of an NHL game is played at even strength, which is why it provides extensive insight into what a player does most of the time he’s on the ice.

Byfield has barely played on the PP in his 40ish NHL games so it’s far too small of a sample size to consider anyway.

I admit I was exaggerating to make a point. But don't you think his stats are a bit misleading based on who he played with most of the season?

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

I admit I was exaggerating to make a point. But don't you think his stats are a bit misleading based on who he played with most of the season?

Can't the same be said about Vilardi benefitting from playing with Fiala?

 

[Herby]

If Byfield had even an even an average shooting percentage last season, he would have scored at the exact same rate as PLD at even strength.

I agree on QB, but we are cherry picking shooting % in the case of Byfield but ignoring it in the case of Vilardi.

QB is not shooting 4% again, but Vilardi isn't shooting 19% either, people acknowledge it with QB but won't with Vilardi.

If QB had shot the 12.8% he did in 2022 this season he would have had around 10 goals.
If Vilardi had shot his career shooting percentage last year he would have had 17 goals instead of 23.

It kind of corrected itself with Vilardi even last season, in his first 15 games, Vilardi had 10 goals and was shooting a whopping 24%. In his final 43 games he had a much more realistic 13 goals on a 16% shooting, which is still pretty high but is certainly not out of the realm of possibility. Gabe shooting 16.4% (again a very good number) for the entire season would have resulted in 19 goals in 63 games, again, that is a good number, don't get me wrong, but it's much more realistic than what we saw. But people are ignoring the unsustainable start and projecting growth here (while projecting zero for the player we are trading for despite being only a year older).

i just don't get why you would do that with PLD and not vilardi instead, saving a f***ton of money for a goalie now then another player next season when kopi's off the books

Because PLD is a center and Gabe can't play center. It's a huge part of why this deal is being discussed, it gives the Kings guarantees at C both now and in the future. Despite the lies that Kings employees tell podcasters (and indirectly the fanbase), there was no way in the big picture that the Kings expected QB to be this far behind projection enough to be making this trade for a C, but when you are trying to fit things into a 2 year window around older and declining players it leaves you no choice but to be reactionary.

 

[Chazz Reinhold]

I admit I was exaggerating to make a point. But don't you think his stats are a bit misleading based on who he played with most of the season?

I don’t, particularly considering Kopitar and Kempe were much, much better with Byfield than without him. Byfield made a number of great plays that led to goals (hence his high level of primary assists) and many that created great chances but didn’t result in goals. If anything, Byfield was snakebitten when it came to goal scoring and I would put money on him scoring at a much higher rate than 3% of his shots next season.

I agree on QB, but we are cherry picking shooting % in the case of Byfield but ignoring it in the case of Vilardi.

QB is not shooting 4% again, but Vilardi isn't shooting 19% either, people acknowledge it with QB but won't with Vilardi.

If QB had shot the 12.8% he did in 2022 this season he would have had around 10 goals.
If Vilardi had shot his career shooting percentage last year he would have had 17 goals instead of 23.

It kind of corrected itself with Vilardi even last season, in his first 15 games, Vilardi had 10 goals and was shooting a whopping 24%. In his final 43 games he had a much more realistic 13 goals on a 16% shooting, which is still pretty high but is certainly not out of the realm of possibility. Gabe shooting 16.4% (again a very good number) for the entire season would have resulted in 19 goals in 63 games, again, that is a good number, don't get me wrong, but it's much more realistic than what we saw. But people are ignoring the unsustainable start and projecting growth here (while projecting zero for the player we are trading for despite being as year older).

I think you’re conflating points raised by different people. I agree that Vilardi is likely not going to consistently shoot at such a high rate going forward, much as I doubt Byfield’s real goal scoring talent is that of a 3-4% shooter.

 

[Herby]

Why even bring that up? Byfield hasn’t been able to play center since entering the league. His best season was being baby sat by Kopitar and Kempe who suddenly has become a top goal scorer.

I know discrediting players is a big deal on these boards, but to say that PLD and Byfield are on the same level is blatant obfuscation. If the Kings are going to be trading for PLD it should be around byfield +. Byfield can’t even score more than 3 goals in 50+ games. There’s so many question marks with him that it makes sense to trade him. At least we all know Vilardi is a potential superstar in the making.

This is how it is.

Vilardi>PLD>Byfield.

The Kings can't trade QB in this deal, unless they internally think he is absolutely cooked as an NHL prospect. And if they feel that way it's likely it's a sentiment shared by the rest of the league.

Kopitar is 36 years old, he could fall off at any time (including this season). They need QB to be there to hopefully develop into something similar to PLD (probably his ceiling at this point) to be the 1C/2C duo with PLD whenever that happens. With Vilardi being a winger, Kupari being a 4th line guy and Turcotte likely busting or ending up a depth piece, there just isn't anything else at C. Danault ain't a 2C on a championship team with PLD as the 1C.

 

[johnjm22]

Byfield started to burn out towards the end of the season. I think that partially affects peoples perception of him this year.

 

[Peter James Bond II]

Any deal the Kings do...signing, trades, contracts, are a conglomeration of:

Beckerman, Luc, Cheeseman, Blake and Bergeron and now Emerson is Ast GM.
Add Todd as well. I am sure he gets a say.

No, I am not a staunch Blake supporter; although I like most moves and signings.
Kovalchuk was a disaster, hiring Desjardins was a joke...was part of those Luc?
Probably.

But it should be known, any deal, signing, contract is this conglomeration.
I liked that Dean probably had 100% control of moves, decisions and the blueprint
and exercising it. This is not an excuse for Blake, for any detrimental moves, signings,
but it's this conglomeration that makes all moves. There's 7 involved, at some degree
and I think that's not a good thing.

Look at this top heavy crazy front office:

Official Los Angeles Kings Website | Los Angeles Kings

The official National Hockey League website including news, rosters, stats, schedules, teams, and video.

www.nhl.com

Not getting past the first round in 6+ years, is not a Blake thing...it's 1 part of what
is management, , coaching, development staff and drafting. It's 4 things and then
also add the players performance and in 2022, you can add injuries to Doughty and
Arvidsson and in 2023 injuries to Fiala, Vilardi and Anderson at maybe 60%.
2022 and 2023 playoffs could have seen 1st rd wins, without those amount of injuries
to key players.

On the positive new thinking : I like that they are bringing in Euro coaches / trainers to dev camp.
I loved the Hiller hire for PP....and this new skills coach? Sure, sounds good., Adding 4 or whatever analytic hires a few yrs ago...I guess? If they actually do anything ground breaking.

 

[BigKing]

With the way he has shot the puck so far, it is fair to say QB won't repeat the 4% shooting percentage this upcoming season.

Could be lower.

 

[tny760]

I agree on QB, but we are cherry picking shooting % in the case of Byfield but ignoring it in the case of Vilardi.

QB is not shooting 4% again, but Vilardi isn't shooting 19% either, people acknowledge it with QB but won't with Vilardi.

If QB had shot the 12.8% he did in 2022 this season he would have had around 10 goals.
If Vilardi had shot his career shooting percentage last year he would have had 17 goals instead of 23.

It kind of corrected itself with Vilardi even last season, in his first 15 games, Vilardi had 10 goals and was shooting a whopping 24%. In his final 43 games he had a much more realistic 13 goals on a 16% shooting, which is still pretty high but is certainly not out of the realm of possibility. Gabe shooting 16.4% (again a very good number) for the entire season would have resulted in 19 goals in 63 games, again, that is a good number, don't get me wrong, but it's much more realistic than what we saw. But people are ignoring the unsustainable start and projecting growth here (while projecting zero for the player we are trading for despite being as year older).

Because PLD is a center and Gabe can't play center. It's a huge part of why this deal is being discussed, it gives the Kings guarantees at C both now and in the future. Despite the lies that Kings employees tell podcasters (and indirectly the fanbase), there was no way in the big picture that the Kings expected QB to be this far behind projection enough to be making this trade for a C, but when you are trying to fit things into a 2 year window around older and declining players it leaves you no choice but to be reactionary.

i guess you're being fair, maybe i'm mixing some of my hatred for the reactionary mess with the player. i don't particularly like PLD's attitude which doesn't help things

just feels like there's a bit more to this than evaluation as a hockey trade. in that regard, it's probably decent, just ill-timed

 

[kovacro]

What does Pierre-Luc Dubois have to offer to his next prospective team?

Pierre-Luc Dubois, who turned 25 over the weekend, is coming off a 63-point season — 52 of which came in his first 52 games.

www.sportsnet.ca

 

[Herby]

i guess you're being fair, maybe i'm mixing some of my hatred for the reactionary mess with the player. i don't particularly like PLD's attitude which doesn't help things

just feels like there's a bit more to this than evaluation as a hockey trade. in that regard, it's probably decent, just ill-timed

I've kind of learned not to read to much into what a players perception is, there is a lot that goes into that.

When the Kings traded for Ryan Smyth he was lauded as some great leader and character, but it turned out he was only in it for what was best for himself and completely embarrassed himself with his play on the ice his 2nd season and then the blatant lies told to the media in response to a (correct) media report that Smyth had demanded a trade to Edmonton because they were the only team who were going to extend him.

Jeff Carter on the other hand came in with a ton of baggage, attitude problems in both Philly (which lead to the original trade to CBJ) and then in CBJ where despite making around $6m a year he chose to sulk and be unprofessional. He of course came to LA and was a great player both on and off the ice for the Kings.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I don't understand why projecting Vilardi to improve has to mean anything about his shooting % staying or going up.

This forum has a weird myopic focus on raw goals vs. points going back to some very strange arguments about Kopitar (would you be mad if Kopitar had 82 assists and no goals, etc.).

I'm 100% certain the theory isn't that Vilardi is a 40 goal scorer in waiting but that his possession and 'heft' improved leaps and bounds as evidenced by his drawing of penalties and just running-backing his way through 3-4 checks, and that will lead to better production....and 'production' means possession, goals, points, penalties drawn, etc., not just friggin even strength raw goals.

And the reverse really goes for Byfield, for all the stuff he generated to NOT end in points vs. his advanced stats, we see not only room for growth/improvement, but also him to fill in the current blanks with just better luck.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

He did though.They weren't taking him at 8. Nobody was letting him back into the first round without another first coming back or a very early 2nd and an asset. Even that wouldn't guarantee him still being there. I think both Yanetti and Blake talked about it somewhere. Sorry, don't remeber which podcast. My guess is they tried to get back into the mid-late teens to be sure but there were no takers or the price was too high.

The problem isn't that he tried to do it and failed. It's that it was promoted as some sort of success because he tried.

fast forward two years and not only has practically every starting goalie from that season and every goalie in the system walked, he has yet to address it.

THAT is the problem. We went form 'well, we TRIED to draft Jesper" to "check it out we've let everyone else go and our entire goaltending system is Copley-Portillo-Villalta-cyborg back Ingham"

So the vibe is similar here. I don't want PLD at this price anyway, but he can say he tried to do it and failed, and he's the only GM in the league who is getting brownie points/gold stars for effort while the titanic sinks around him.

I mean while there are still massive holes at organization LHD and G he's still trying to 'fix' the top six and none of his prospects are making noise is a different convo anyway but still