Speculation: LA Kings News, Rumors, Roster Thread part VII

[apocalypse]

It seems that Kopitar is content. And content players aren't hungry. They're not hungry to score and to play hard. He needs to lose his contentedness.

 

[YP44]

I'm content with Kopitar

 

[LAKings88]

Kopi just needs to f***ing shoot more. The game would open up for him. He hesitates on the powerplay so much.

 

[BigKing]

The reason he was doing that is because the dataset from last year was small during a shortened season, so he's showing both last year plus this year and last year combined for now. His 2021-2022 only cards are coming soon, although they would have been nice to have already.

Got it. I did say I was stupid but it seems kind of useless if the numbers are a mash-up if I'm trying to actually figure out what is going on for this specific season. Will be interesting to see how different the numbers are when we get the actual comparison.

 

[YAYSAY]

Kopi just needs to f***ing shoot more. The game would open up for him. He hesitates on the powerplay so much.

Same with Doughty on the PP, he is way too hesitant to be a quarterback. The difference in decisiveness between him and Durzi is stark. The second Durzi gets the puck he already knows what he wants to do or at least moves around to open up options. And then right after getting rid of the puck he moves around and stays dynamic. It's night and day when Doughty is controlling the PP vs Durzi.

 

[bland]

I think, despite our disagreements, you're smarter than this, which is what makes discussing things with you admittedly frustrating.

What do you think is the MOST LIKELY culprit for his decrease in performance:
- new skates
- late-night gambling
- age combined with heavy minutes year after year

I believe you said you were a scout. In your capacity of a scout, would you not agree there is a sweet spot in ice time for players? Not a hard and fast rule of specific thresholds, but isn't it fair to say that play starts to taper after a certain amount of time? Conversely, don't players generally benefit from getting a minimal amount of time so they can keep their legs and rhythm?

Kopitar's played very hard minutes all his career. He has been surprisingly durable. Why is it so absurd to believe making a career out of playing hard minutes might start taking a toll?

Edit: I'll add I don't think Kopitar is as bad as many out here say he is, either. However, I do believe he has declined a bit, and the Kings have capable personnel to lighten his load AND keep the team competitive.

His play away from the puck has declined noticably. There is a full step lost, especially noticable on the PK. The goal by the Devils last night is a perfect example, Anze was just a stride too slow to close that lane. With the puck he hasn't seen much change at all, which fully supports the theory that his game is being affected by mileage. The first thing premier athletes lose to time is will, not legs or skills. The things that require just that little extra bit of effort are the tell-tale signs of aging.

His offense is too valuable to be burdened by PK work.

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

Tell me captain strawman, why isn’t Crosby, Kane and Ovechkin way better than Kopitar? Does everyone believe that east coast bias is the only reason Bergeron is considered the best Selke winner of the past 10 years? No one pays me to post on HF Boards, so if I’m wrong here, I’ll get to work on fixing it as soon as I get paid to do so.

They ARE....WAY BETTER than Kopitar.....offensively.... if you don't think that, I don't know what to tell you....

Again, how are you defining top 5, top 10, points only? Make an argument for Kadri then please.

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

I think, despite our disagreements, you're smarter than this, which is what makes discussing things with you admittedly frustrating.

What do you think is the MOST LIKELY culprit for his decrease in performance:
- new skates
- late-night gambling
- age combined with heavy minutes year after year

I believe you said you were a scout. In your capacity of a scout, would you not agree there is a sweet spot in ice time for players? Not a hard and fast rule of specific thresholds, but isn't it fair to say that play starts to taper after a certain amount of time? Conversely, don't players generally benefit from getting a minimal amount of time so they can keep their legs and rhythm?

Kopitar's played very hard minutes all his career. He has been surprisingly durable. Why is it so absurd to believe making a career out of playing hard minutes might start taking a toll?

Edit: I'll add I don't think Kopitar is as bad as many out here say he is, either. However, I do believe he has declined a bit, and the Kings have capable personnel to lighten his load AND keep the team competitive.

Never a scout, just 43 years in the game..Tonelli's ghost was the scout....

Most likely his decrease in performance honestly, is the fans perception because we got shiny new toys, he's averaging the same ice time, averaging the same points, his defensive play has let up a bit, absolutely, but is that a team overall thing, when we were playing Roy as our top D for 18 games etc?

There is 100% a sweet spot with ice time, my argument is, that Kopitar is in his, Doughty is in his, I actually think that they do need to manage him better, but that's not because he's declining like this board surmises as shiny new toys appear, but because that's the only way you are gonna bring along Turcotte, Byfield, etc

 

[KINGS17]

Here's a metric for you, last ten games (since Jan 1st):

Kopitar played > 20 minutes 6 times (22:10, 20:43, 21:07, 21:40, 20:33, 22:28) In those games, the Kings were 3-3. Kopitar: 6GP, 1g, 2a, -7. 61% CF%, 0 GF%.
Bonus--right before those 6 he played 26:14 in a loss vs. Van, a game in which he posted 0s all around, but 80+% CF%.

Kopitar played < 20 minutes 4 times (17:28, 18:53, 19:56, 19:43). In those games, the Kings were 3-1. Kopitar: 4GP, 3g, 2a, +4. 55% CF%, 83% GF%.

My hypothesis is that TM feeds him extra minutes when it looks like his possession is on--so his perceived effectiveness goes up--but in reality his (defensive, especially, which would correlate with skating/legs) effectiveness wanes with the extra workload. Yet Kopitar's personal effectiveness all-around increases with the lesser minutes--and the rest of the time thrives with additional opportunity.

Make of that what you will.

I know what to make of it, and what to do about it, but I don't have a time machine.

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

It seems that Kopitar is content. And content players aren't hungry. They're not hungry to score and to play hard. He needs to lose his contentedness.

How do you come to that conclusion? Look at his 16 year career, has there ever been a time he looked hungry?

 

[kilowatt]

my ignore list appears to be working, some of y'all are arguing with the invisible hand

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Never a scout, just 43 years in the game..Tonelli's ghost was the scout....

Most likely his decrease in performance honestly, is the fans perception because we got shiny new toys, he's averaging the same ice time, averaging the same points, his defensive play has let up a bit, absolutely, but is that a team overall thing, when we were playing Roy as our top D for 18 games etc?

There is 100% a sweet spot with ice time, my argument is, that Kopitar is in his, Doughty is in his, I actually think that they do need to manage him better, but that's not because he's declining like this board surmises as shiny new toys appear, but because that's the only way you are gonna bring along Turcotte, Byfield, etc

Maybe 'declining' isn't the right word, but his (defensive) performance is much more subject to icetime than it was in the past, which happens w/age.

If he can catch a guy he can disarm them in seconds. Saw that a few times last night when he cartooned Hughes with reach. But he can't be chasing dudes around for 22 minutes a game anymore, and he shouldn't be with a legitimate Selke candidate at 2C, arguably the best prospect in the game at 3C, and an elite checking C at 4c. Even if it's just his PK responsibilities getting removed, something needs to be done to bridge the minutes gap between Kopitar and the other centers for his preservation and effectiveness.

 

[lumbergh]

that cannot be stressed enough
View attachment 501372

You’re not wrong. Kopitar is not a good penalty killer now. Generally too passive. He gets scored on a lot. They should move him down from the first PK pair of forwards. I say this as a Kopi fanboy.

 

[Little Psycho]

Why must we continue to get punished with the chrome domes?

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

Maybe 'declining' isn't the right word, but his (defensive) performance is much more subject to icetime than it was in the past, which happens w/age.

If he can catch a guy he can disarm them in seconds. Saw that a few times last night when he cartooned Hughes with reach. But he can't be chasing dudes around for 22 minutes a game anymore, and he shouldn't be with a legitimate Selke candidate at 2C, arguably the best prospect in the game at 3C, and an elite checking C at 4c. Even if it's just his PK responsibilities getting removed, something needs to be done to bridge the minutes gap between Kopitar and the other centers for his preservation and effectiveness.

That's a much better criticism, I think....and again, I think he needs managed more, not for him though, but for Byfield, Turcotte, Kupari, Lizotte, JAD etc whomever they want to stick at C....

It's just amusing to watch this board go apeshit, over 1 minute of ice time, when the guy has done that his entire career....and the ONLY reason it's an issue now, is Byfield, Turcotte, Kupari, etc.

 

[Trash Panda]

That's a much better criticism, I think....and again, I think he needs managed more, not for him though, but for Byfield, Turcotte, Kupari, Lizotte, JAD etc whomever they want to stick at C....

It's just amusing to watch this board go apeshit, over 1 minute of ice time, when the guy has done that his entire career....and the ONLY reason it's an issue now, is Byfield, Turcotte, Kupari, etc.

One of many reasons it’s an issue now, is if you nuke that minute of ice time solely off the PK, the kings become a markedly better team from addition by subtraction alone.

That doesn’t even begin to factor in the trickle down benefits that would benefit fatigue levels, younger player development, etc.

Kopitar absolutely needs to be managed because of his own performance, regardless of who is being groomed to replace him. It’s an irrefutable fact for even the most casual scouting eye, with his PK performance this year being the most glaring indicator.

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

One of many reasons it’s an issue now, is if you nuke that minute of ice time solely off the PK, the kings become a markedly better team from addition by subtraction alone.

That doesn’t even begin to factor in the trickle down benefits that would benefit fatigue levels, younger player development, etc.

Kopitar absolutely needs to be managed because of his own performance, regardless of who is being groomed to replace him. It’s an irrefutable fact for even the most casual scouting eye, with his PK performance this year being the most glaring indicator.

Ok, let me ask you this then, how fatigued is Kopitar getting?

 

[Steve Zissou]

Why must we continue to get punished with the chrome domes?

I'm gonna just keep posting these:

 

[kingsholygrail]

Kopitar super nova'd in 2018. It's already been four years since.

 

[tny760]

why wear the forum blue & gold ones that get near universal acclaim from every other NHL fan when you can wear the chromedome that gets near universal hate? cmon now

 

[NikF]

I wrote a much longer post on this a year ago, but Kopitar was never known as a "light" skater. When he was in his physical prime his skating was far from an issue but as he loses some of the youthful energy and enthusiasm with age, it's understandable that certain aspects of his game are going to decline. His defensive ability ie reactivity away from puck, ability to track his man, quick tempo changes and movement adjusments are all going to become increasingly challenging for him to perform. His puck skills, hockey IQ and reach aren't going to go anywhere though, which is why he can still put up points on board: he's clever, skilled and big. Even then, the trademark puck possession game will decline as his feet get heavier and less reactive. I'm not sure how many people remember Kopitar being basically a Kempe-esque gaurantee to enter the zone or circle the offensive zone with people strapped on his back and never lose possession? Kempe is that guy now (although better in pure mobility, he lacks the rest of peak Kopitar's game).

It would be a smart thing to start managing Kopitar's usage so that his remaining strengths are amplified and his age-related weaknesses minimized. This isn't anything new in the last 10-15 years in pro-sports, aging superstars tend to work out adaptations in how they play and how they are used to maximize their natural talent at an age where physical limitations are becoming a reality for them.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

That's a much better criticism, I think....and again, I think he needs managed more, not for him though, but for Byfield, Turcotte, Kupari, Lizotte, JAD etc whomever they want to stick at C....

It's just amusing to watch this board go apeshit, over 1 minute of ice time, when the guy has done that his entire career....and the ONLY reason it's an issue now, is Byfield, Turcotte, Kupari, etc.

We're not talking about 1 minute, though. It's more like 4 minutes, which in Kopi's case is a 20% difference in workload. That's more significant than you're making it seem. And that's when we're talking about the difference between 18 and 22 minutes, not the 23-26 he gets once every several games.

 

[Piston]

This isn't rocket science although statistics do demonstrate reality. We have Phillip Danault. He is probably the main, certainly not the only, reason the Kings are better this year than last. Kopitar is already older today than Danault will be at the end of the contract he signed with us and many were complaining about paying for that 6th season. Danault will never be as good as AK in his prime, but right now he is better in many aspects of the game. There is absolutely no reason that PD should not be getting some of those tougher minutes and assignments. That is why we got him, why we are paying him, and he is delivering. Why McLellan is being so stubborn about overplaying AK is beyond me. It seems to me the biggest reason coaches get fired in any sport is the inability to adjust to the talents of his players. I hesitate to quote John Maynard Keynes on a hockey board, but this quote is apropos:
“When the facts change, I change my mind - what do you do, sir?”

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

And the more we talk about it, the more it's on coaching than personnel.

Sure, rein in Kopi's icetime.

But if you have TWO Selke guys, a Norris dman legend, and an entire roster of two-way defensive leaning players, there should be NO REASON you should be DEAD LAST on the PK. NO reason.

I can even forgive them for the PP as the skill is on the way but having BOTH fail is just an absurdity of coaching. If you can't PK with some of the best defensive players in the world on your team what even the f*** are you here for?

 

[The Lukeman]

Difference between the Rangers and Kings - Rangers have star power/finishers