Speculation: LA Kings News, Rumors, Roster Thread part VII

[johnjm22]

Kings projected to be 5th in the Pacific. Behind Seattle.

Part of the reason the Kings rank so low is because of special teams projections.

 

[kinghock]

I would rather waiver Andersson over JAD or Vilardi. Not sure how everyone else feels. Probably an internal bias about one guy being drafted by another club, and I like that JAD is Calgarian

To me Vilardi> Andersson> JAD
I have watched JAD all last year in AHL and never liked him despite him scoring a lot of goals.

 

[FSL KINGS]

I would rather waiver Andersson over JAD or Vilardi. Not sure how everyone else feels. Probably an internal bias about one guy being drafted by another club, and I like that JAD is Calgarian

Don't see any reason for both Lizotte & JAD to be on the team. If there were extra spaces, keep both.

 

[Schrute farms]

To me, it's Vilardi...then a biiiig distance and then a toss up between JAD/Lias.

For Lias, I just haven't seen enough of him anywhere on the ice (injuries) to make a definitive decision one way or the other. JAD is at best a solid 4th liner -- i just want more size, grit & toughness out of that kind of guy.

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

Don't see any reason for both Lizotte & JAD to be on the team. If there were extra spaces, keep both.

To me, it's Vilardi...then a biiiig distance and then a toss up between JAD/Lias.

For Lias, I just haven't seen enough of him anywhere on the ice (injuries) to make a definitive decision one way or the other. JAD is at best a solid 4th liner -- i just want more size, grit & toughness out of that kind of guy.

JAD is probably a middle 6 type of player, he has the offense.....he can play defense........

The whole size/grit/toughness is so.....overplayed....size, ok sure....grit and toughness......I don't get when people use this as an excuse to overlook a player.....because it's so varied in how people use it, Can anyone tell me with a straight face that Lizotte doesn't have grit or toughness (I know we are talking about JAD, but they are pretty much the same player at this point)

 

[Kingspiracy]

JAD is probably a middle 6 type of player, he has the offense.....he can play defense........

The whole size/grit/toughness is so.....overplayed....size, ok sure....grit and toughness......I don't get when people use this as an excuse to overlook a player.....because it's so varied in how people use it, Can anyone tell me with a straight face that Lizotte doesn't have grit or toughness (I know we are talking about JAD, but they are pretty much the same player at this point)

Sure Lizzo is a tough gritty midget, but if im choosing an nhler i'd choose the 6'2 200 pounder of the same ability over the midget.

Theres an adage in boxing that a good big fighter beats a good small fighter, which is semi relevant to the nhl. The bigger person is usually stronger, hits harder and more durable.

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

Sure Lizzo is a tough gritty midget, but if im choosing an nhler i'd choose the 6'2 200 pounder of the same ability over the midget.

Theres an adage in boxing that a good big fighter beats a good small fighter, which is semi relevant to the nhl. The bigger person is usually stronger, hits harder and more durable.

Well yea, every team would take Ovechkin/Wilson type players

 

[BringTheReign]

Kings projected to be 5th in the Pacific. Behind Seattle.

Part of the reason the Kings rank so low is because of special teams projections.

Vancouver and Winnipeg stick out to me on this list. I don't think Winnipeg makes the playoffs, not with all the strife going on there on top of Bowness who I'm not that impressed by as a coach. I think the Canucks will be fighting us for the final spot in the Pacific or a wild card, but I can't see them jumping Edmonton.

 

[YP44]

Vancouver and Winnipeg stick out to me on this list. I don't think Winnipeg makes the playoffs, not with all the strife going on there on top of Bowness who I'm not that impressed by as a coach. I think the Canucks will be fighting us for the final spot in the Pacific or a wild card, but I can't see them jumping Edmonton.

big jump back for the islanders too

 

[mysterman2]

Sure Lizzo is a tough gritty midget, but if im choosing an nhler i'd choose the 6'2 200 pounder of the same ability over the midget.

Theres an adage in boxing that a good big fighter beats a good small fighter, which is semi relevant to the nhl. The bigger person is usually stronger, hits harder and more durable.

Totally agreed....dont think the dropoff between Lizotte and JAD is that dramatic. You can make the argument as well being 2 years younger, good junior league pedigree and his willingness to drop the gloves occasionally gives him a bit higher upside.

JAD 12 pts in 50 games for .24 ppg
Lizotte 57pts in 177 for .32 ppg with far more regular playing time and linemates.

With you in the agreement- when in doubt take the size. 47 Pts in 54 Games with Ontario- has upside.

Jan Jenik vs. Jaret Anderson-Dolan, January 23, 2022 - Tucson Roadrunners vs. Ontario Reign | HockeyFights

HockeyFights - Jan Jenik vs. Jaret Anderson-Dolan, January 23, 2022 - Tucson Roadrunners vs. Ontario Reign

www.hockeyfights.com

Kings projected to be 5th in the Pacific. Behind Seattle.

Part of the reason the Kings rank so low is because of special teams projections.

inane- Kings missed Doughty for the majority of the season and gained Fiala. This equates to regressing 13 pts?

Seattle had 60 pts- what did they do to gain 27 pts in the standings?

 

[No Name The Nameless]

Tough call....but JAD or Lemieux? And please spare me the whole "toughness" aspect, it's been beaten to death, and fighting, as much as I get it and like it, is on it's way out of the game.....having Lemieux on the roster did not prevent Kassian from taking runs etc....

I’m a big JAD guy but if Lemieu is as good as he was in the first half of last season he had to be the guy.

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

I’m a big JAD guy but if Lemieu is as good as he was in the first half of last season he had to be the guy.

That, I can agree with, I just don't see it happening, I think the Lemieux you got in the 2nd half....is the real Lemieux....

 

[Reaper45]

It will depend on injuries. Q has a history and Pete's got the bug. Copley is another underrated pick up which the Kings have a history of refining under the guru Ranford. Dont listen to Bobby peanut butter n jelly opinionated goaltending doomsday poster. Speaking of proverbial doomsday, this bus will be pulling up all week.

Ok Pheonix what ever you say. Love your positive outlook but you’re 30 and haven’t played more than 2 NHL games in a season since 18-19. But you’re from North Pole, Alaska so that’s cool too.

 

[Surf Nutz]

Ok Pheonix what ever you say. Love your positive outlook but you’re 30 and haven’t played more than 2 NHL games in a season since 18-19. But you’re from North Pole, Alaska so that’s cool too.

Nobody from the north pole surfs CReaper. Ranford is hall of fame, thats why Garth Snow was claimed on waiver out of camp from the Kings last year. If Ranford is on the case you could have a successful reclamation, ala Campbell, Jones and Scrivens. And that adds to their value at least short run. Now get back in your van and drive away.

 

[Schrute farms]

JAD is probably a middle 6 type of player, he has the offense.....he can play defense........

The whole size/grit/toughness is so.....overplayed....size, ok sure....grit and toughness......I don't get when people use this as an excuse to overlook a player.....because it's so varied in how people use it, Can anyone tell me with a straight face that Lizotte doesn't have grit or toughness (I know we are talking about JAD, but they are pretty much the same player at this point)

it's Size + toughness/grit. Grit on it's own when the guy is small only goes so far. It's cool with Lizotte -- but not when the rest of the team lacks size+toughness like the Kings.
Size on it's own is meaningless unless the guy likes to take the body and plays with some toughness. A softy tall/big guy is not needed on the Kings. You simply can't continue to fill your roster with guys who are small and/or lack any toughness. Unless the guys are sooo crazy skilled and fast that we're scoring at an amazing clip and killing teams on the PP -- which (lol) is obviously not happening the past several years.

 

[Sol]

Totally agreed....dont think the dropoff between Lizotte and JAD is that dramatic. You can make the argument as well being 2 years younger, good junior league pedigree and his willingness to drop the gloves occasionally gives him a bit higher upside.

JAD 12 pts in 50 games for .24 ppg
Lizotte 57pts in 177 for .32 ppg with far more regular playing time and linemates.

With you in the agreement- when in doubt take the size. 47 Pts in 54 Games with Ontario- has upside.

Jan Jenik vs. Jaret Anderson-Dolan, January 23, 2022 - Tucson Roadrunners vs. Ontario Reign | HockeyFights

HockeyFights - Jan Jenik vs. Jaret Anderson-Dolan, January 23, 2022 - Tucson Roadrunners vs. Ontario Reign

www.hockeyfights.com

inane- Kings missed Doughty for the majority of the season and gained Fiala. This equates to regressing 13 pts?

Seattle had 60 pts- what did they do to gain 27 pts in the standings?

Absolutely nothing to jump 27 points up and the Kings regressing that much. They shouldn’t have posted that because that’s some of the biggest bullshit I’ve seen and I’ve seen a lot with Axls posts

 

[Statto]

Absolutely nothing to jump 27 points up and the Kings regressing that much. They shouldn’t have posted that because that’s some of the biggest bullshit I’ve seen and I’ve seen a lot with Axls posts

It’s an awful model they use. They had Grundström as a negative contribution on the breakdown I saw, which well behind Lemieux as an example. I forget the details but it all made little sense to me, I couldn’t see how they’d gotten to their conclusions.

 

[Fishhead]

When I was doing the playoff odds last year I found moneypuck’s model the best. I don’t think they do predictions before the season starts though.

 

[cyclones22]

The predictions for Seattle being successful last season were a joke. It was heavily influenced by Vegas' entry into the league and somehow recreating that scenario. The Kraken played a lot of anti-hockey to not get blown out most games.

 

[Herby]

inane- Kings missed Doughty for the majority of the season and gained Fiala. This equates to regressing 13 pts?

Seattle had 60 pts- what did they do to gain 27 pts in the standings?

I think the number is going to end up being off, but as someone who heavily uses various different models for future projections, I will defend it.

Here is why a lot of models are down on the Kings (and why Vegas thinks the Kings will have a worse year despite Doughty and Fiala).

1. Regression of the Kings top 2 goal-scorers.

Kempe scored 35 goals on a 14.2 shooting %
Danault scored 27 goals on a 13.9 shooting %

Kempe's career shooting % before this year was 10.2%
Danault's career shooting % before this year was 8.6%

A return to career average shooting % for each player would result in

Kempe - 26 goals
Danault - 17 goals

That is 19 goals that is lost by just a return to career average shooting %. It's also unlikely that both players combine to miss only 7 games again.

For a team that struggled to score goals as much as the Kings did, that is a lot of goals.

Once again, for what seems like the millionth straight season the Kings issue is going to be the ability to score goals at a decent level.

2. Age of Kopitar and Doughty

Kopitar already started to show cracks last year. He is 35 years old, with 1300 NHL games under his belt. These models are just using historical evidence to how much similar players have fallen off around this age. If Kopitar falls off to 2nd line center offensive production and Danault returns to his career normals of offense the Kings are going to again struggle to score goals in what is becoming an offense oriented league. Is there a chance QB really explodes this year? Yes, there is, but again these models are using a lot of past data, and it's just not common for players to go from sub-replacement to 1st or 2nd line caliber over one season.

Doughty is younger, so this model doesn't hit him quite as hard. But he is 33, with a lot of miles on his tires as well, there is regression cooked into his WAR projections too, just because typically this is where defenseman start to fall off.

--------

I do think Seattle is being a bit overrated, a lot of these models are really big on Beniers stepping in and being a star level 1C. Which is certainly possible, maybe even likely, but is only based on a small sample size to end last year (where granted Beniers was very good as a 19 year old rookie).

But that is where it's frustrating to be a Kings fan with the draft results, here is a kid who was drafted, developed perfectly based on successful previous results, steps into the NHL as a teenager and looks the part and now is going to be counted on to be a difference maker 16 months after being drafted. But that is not super uncommon for players taken in the Top 5.

The Kings inability to integrate their high picks into the NHL lineup in a timely manner (whether through poor evaluation or poor development) is going to really start to hurt the team as Kopitar (and Carter) aged out of their roles.

 

[Sol]

I think the number is going to end up being off, but as someone who heavily uses various different models for future projections, I will defend it.

Here is why a lot of models are down on the Kings (and why Vegas thinks the Kings will have a worse year despite Doughty and Fiala).

1. Regression of the Kings top 2 goal-scorers.

Kempe scored 35 goals on a 14.2 shooting %
Danault scored 27 goals on a 13.9 shooting %

Kempe's career shooting % before this year was 10.2%
Danault's career shooting % before this year was 8.6%

A return to career average shooting % for each player would result in

Kempe - 26 goals
Danault - 17 goals

That is 19 goals that is lost by just a return to career average shooting %. It's also unlikely that both players combine to miss only 7 games again.

For a team that struggled to score goals as much as the Kings did, that is a lot of goals.

Once again, for what seems like the millionth straight season the Kings issue is going to be the ability to score goals at a decent level.

2. Age of Kopitar and Doughty

Kopitar already started to show cracks last year. He is 35 years old, with 1300 NHL games under his belt. These models are just using historical evidence to how much similar players have fallen off around this age. If Kopitar falls off to 2nd line center offensive production and Danault returns to his career normals of offense the Kings are going to again struggle to score goals in what is becoming an offense oriented league. Is there a chance QB really explodes this year? Yes, there is, but again these models are using a lot of past data, and it's just not common for players to go from sub-replacement to 1st or 2nd line caliber over one season.

Doughty is younger, so this model doesn't hit him quite as hard. But he is 33, with a lot of miles on his tires as well, there is regression cooked into his WAR projections too, just because typically this is where defenseman start to fall off.

--------

I do think Seattle is being a bit overrated, a lot of these models are really big on Beniers stepping in and being a star level 1C. Which is certainly possible, maybe even likely, but is only based on a small sample size to end last year (where granted Beniers was very good as a 19 year old rookie).

But that is where it's frustrating to be a Kings fan with the draft results, here is a kid who was drafted, developed perfectly based on successful previous results, steps into the NHL as a teenager and looks the part and now is going to be counted on to be a difference maker 16 months after being drafted. But that is not super uncommon for players taken in the Top 5.

The Kings inability to integrate their high picks into the NHL lineup in a timely manner (whether through poor evaluation or poor development) is going to really start to hurt the team as Kopitar (and Carter) aged out of their roles.

Then inject Vilardi 2.0, Byfield (long stick edition) and Brandt Flakes. I think the synergy it’d provide for the team is going to correct and in fact improve the team as a whole.

A lot of ifs and buts. BUT I see a big year for Vilardi. Im not sure about Byfield to be honest, he’s looked better but nothing to be excited about. Clarke can be a massive catalyst for the team if he stays. He can feed Fiala all night long.

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

I think the number is going to end up being off, but as someone who heavily uses various different models for future projections, I will defend it.

Here is why a lot of models are down on the Kings (and why Vegas thinks the Kings will have a worse year despite Doughty and Fiala).

1. Regression of the Kings top 2 goal-scorers.

Kempe scored 35 goals on a 14.2 shooting %
Danault scored 27 goals on a 13.9 shooting %

Kempe's career shooting % before this year was 10.2%
Danault's career shooting % before this year was 8.6%

A return to career average shooting % for each player would result in

Kempe - 26 goals
Danault - 17 goals

That is 19 goals that is lost by just a return to career average shooting %. It's also unlikely that both players combine to miss only 7 games again.

For a team that struggled to score goals as much as the Kings did, that is a lot of goals.

Once again, for what seems like the millionth straight season the Kings issue is going to be the ability to score goals at a decent level.

2. Age of Kopitar and Doughty

Kopitar already started to show cracks last year. He is 35 years old, with 1300 NHL games under his belt. These models are just using historical evidence to how much similar players have fallen off around this age. If Kopitar falls off to 2nd line center offensive production and Danault returns to his career normals of offense the Kings are going to again struggle to score goals in what is becoming an offense oriented league. Is there a chance QB really explodes this year? Yes, there is, but again these models are using a lot of past data, and it's just not common for players to go from sub-replacement to 1st or 2nd line caliber over one season.

Doughty is younger, so this model doesn't hit him quite as hard. But he is 33, with a lot of miles on his tires as well, there is regression cooked into his WAR projections too, just because typically this is where defenseman start to fall off.

--------

I do think Seattle is being a bit overrated, a lot of these models are really big on Beniers stepping in and being a star level 1C. Which is certainly possible, maybe even likely, but is only based on a small sample size to end last year (where granted Beniers was very good as a 19 year old rookie).

But that is where it's frustrating to be a Kings fan with the draft results, here is a kid who was drafted, developed perfectly based on successful previous results, steps into the NHL as a teenager and looks the part and now is going to be counted on to be a difference maker 16 months after being drafted. But that is not super uncommon for players taken in the Top 5.

The Kings inability to integrate their high picks into the NHL lineup in a timely manner (whether through poor evaluation or poor development) is going to really start to hurt the team as Kopitar (and Carter) aged out of their roles.

I get that, but you add Fiala and Doughty, that probably bare minimum covers those 19 goals....then you have hopefully steps by Kaliyev and Byfield, and a marginally better PP adds what, another 10-15 on top of that?

Plus, where there players shooting below % ? If they bounce back, thats a few more etc....

Things have to fall...but I can see LA hitting 99 again......they didn't lose anyone.....gained a scorer....and a healthy Doughty......even if Kempe and Danault regress....I think there's more than enough to pick that slack up

 

[All The Kings Men]

You guys know the math isn't taking this personally right?

The math isn't a Ducks fan trying to piss off Kings fans. It's just simulation and numbers spitting out information that will never be 100% correct.

 

[Sol]

You guys know the math isn't taking this personally right?

The math isn't a Ducks fan trying to piss off Kings fans. It's just simulation and numbers spitting out information that will never be 100% correct.

Spoken like a true math sympathizer

 

[tbrown33]

I think the number is going to end up being off, but as someone who heavily uses various different models for future projections, I will defend it.

Here is why a lot of models are down on the Kings (and why Vegas thinks the Kings will have a worse year despite Doughty and Fiala).

1. Regression of the Kings top 2 goal-scorers.

Kempe scored 35 goals on a 14.2 shooting %
Danault scored 27 goals on a 13.9 shooting %

Kempe's career shooting % before this year was 10.2%
Danault's career shooting % before this year was 8.6%

A return to career average shooting % for each player would result in

Kempe - 26 goals
Danault - 17 goals

That is 19 goals that is lost by just a return to career average shooting %. It's also unlikely that both players combine to miss only 7 games again.

For a team that struggled to score goals as much as the Kings did, that is a lot of goals.

Once again, for what seems like the millionth straight season the Kings issue is going to be the ability to score goals at a decent level.

2. Age of Kopitar and Doughty

Kopitar already started to show cracks last year. He is 35 years old, with 1300 NHL games under his belt. These models are just using historical evidence to how much similar players have fallen off around this age. If Kopitar falls off to 2nd line center offensive production and Danault returns to his career normals of offense the Kings are going to again struggle to score goals in what is becoming an offense oriented league. Is there a chance QB really explodes this year? Yes, there is, but again these models are using a lot of past data, and it's just not common for players to go from sub-replacement to 1st or 2nd line caliber over one season.

Doughty is younger, so this model doesn't hit him quite as hard. But he is 33, with a lot of miles on his tires as well, there is regression cooked into his WAR projections too, just because typically this is where defenseman start to fall off.

--------

I do think Seattle is being a bit overrated, a lot of these models are really big on Beniers stepping in and being a star level 1C. Which is certainly possible, maybe even likely, but is only based on a small sample size to end last year (where granted Beniers was very good as a 19 year old rookie).

But that is where it's frustrating to be a Kings fan with the draft results, here is a kid who was drafted, developed perfectly based on successful previous results, steps into the NHL as a teenager and looks the part and now is going to be counted on to be a difference maker 16 months after being drafted. But that is not super uncommon for players taken in the Top 5.

The Kings inability to integrate their high picks into the NHL lineup in a timely manner (whether through poor evaluation or poor development) is going to really start to hurt the team as Kopitar (and Carter) aged out of their roles.

JFresh said his model is over-weighing the Kings special teams #s from last year. But all signs point to positive regression on that front, which the model is not accounting for.

Bottom line is that all models, even the most correct ones, end up being wildly wrong.