Speculation: LA Kings News, Rumors, Roster Thread part VII

[KingsFan7824]

I think the number is going to end up being off, but as someone who heavily uses various different models for future projections, I will defend it.

Here is why a lot of models are down on the Kings (and why Vegas thinks the Kings will have a worse year despite Doughty and Fiala).

1. Regression of the Kings top 2 goal-scorers.

Kempe scored 35 goals on a 14.2 shooting %
Danault scored 27 goals on a 13.9 shooting %

Kempe's career shooting % before this year was 10.2%
Danault's career shooting % before this year was 8.6%

A return to career average shooting % for each player would result in

Kempe - 26 goals
Danault - 17 goals

That is 19 goals that is lost by just a return to career average shooting %. It's also unlikely that both players combine to miss only 7 games again.

For a team that struggled to score goals as much as the Kings did, that is a lot of goals.

Once again, for what seems like the millionth straight season the Kings issue is going to be the ability to score goals at a decent level.

2. Age of Kopitar and Doughty

Kopitar already started to show cracks last year. He is 35 years old, with 1300 NHL games under his belt. These models are just using historical evidence to how much similar players have fallen off around this age. If Kopitar falls off to 2nd line center offensive production and Danault returns to his career normals of offense the Kings are going to again struggle to score goals in what is becoming an offense oriented league. Is there a chance QB really explodes this year? Yes, there is, but again these models are using a lot of past data, and it's just not common for players to go from sub-replacement to 1st or 2nd line caliber over one season.

Doughty is younger, so this model doesn't hit him quite as hard. But he is 33, with a lot of miles on his tires as well, there is regression cooked into his WAR projections too, just because typically this is where defenseman start to fall off.

--------

I do think Seattle is being a bit overrated, a lot of these models are really big on Beniers stepping in and being a star level 1C. Which is certainly possible, maybe even likely, but is only based on a small sample size to end last year (where granted Beniers was very good as a 19 year old rookie).

But that is where it's frustrating to be a Kings fan with the draft results, here is a kid who was drafted, developed perfectly based on successful previous results, steps into the NHL as a teenager and looks the part and now is going to be counted on to be a difference maker 16 months after being drafted. But that is not super uncommon for players taken in the Top 5.

The Kings inability to integrate their high picks into the NHL lineup in a timely manner (whether through poor evaluation or poor development) is going to really start to hurt the team as Kopitar (and Carter) aged out of their roles.

Now project something positive.

 

[Herby]

You guys know the math isn't taking this personally right?

The math isn't a Ducks fan trying to piss off Kings fans. It's just simulation and numbers spitting out information that will never be 100% correct.

As a math, statistics, historical type guy I have learned that people on forums love these things when they are positive of their team and despise it when it is negative of their team.

Then inject Vilardi 2.0, Byfield (long stick edition) and Brandt Flakes. I think the synergy it’d provide for the team is going to correct and in fact improve the team as a whole.

A lot of ifs and buts. BUT I see a big year for Vilardi. Im not sure about Byfield to be honest, he’s looked better but nothing to be excited about. Clarke can be a massive catalyst for the team if he stays. He can feed Fiala all night long.

This same stuff was being talked about Vilardi last year, I think you are placing to much of an emphasis on pre-season. But what happens if Vilardi does play well, is there any chance he's better than VA was last year? Further, do you relegate VA down the lineup or keep Vilardi up, and what does that result in, either Kaliyev or Byfield being sent to the AHL?

I get that, but you add Fiala and Doughty, that probably bare minimum covers those 19 goals....then you have hopefully steps by Kaliyev and Byfield, and a marginally better PP adds what, another 10-15 on top of that?

Plus, where there players shooting below % ? If they bounce back, thats a few more etc....

Things have to fall...but I can see LA hitting 99 again......they didn't lose anyone.....gained a scorer....and a healthy Doughty......even if Kempe and Danault regress....I think there's more than enough to pick that slack up

Fiala is not replacing 0 goals though. He is replacing a role that was mostly played by Iafallo, Brown and AA at various different times. Those players contributed, if I had to guess about 25 goals playing in the top 6 last year. That is where the hopeful upgrade in goals comes from Fiala.

The potential for a Kopitar fall-off and Danault returning to a third line type of production is what is really going to be the potential concern for the Kings, because the offensive production up the middle would be at a level that is going to be a big challenge to making the playoffs.

Also the thing I forgot the mention, the record in 1 goal games. I think that may be even more cooked into the Kings point numbers in a lot of these models. A return to normal in one-goal games is going to lower the Kings point totals a lot.

I think we both know Vegas isn't in the business of losing money, and the people and services they use for the numbers know that the Kings are getting back a likely top 15 d-man and adding a 1st line winger but the O/U is still lower. That tells you just how well the numbers fell for the Kings last year.

Again, I don't love the play either way, not betting the Kings this year because I think Vegas numbers are pretty spot on. But a 100 point season is possible (young players improving, PP improving, PK improving) but a 90 point season is possible too (regression, aging players, return to normal results in 1 goal games)

 

[Herby]

Now project something positive.

I have, numerous times throughout this thread and others when point models are discussed, which I'm pretty sure you have seen and replied to.

Did you happen to see the post I was replying to? I guess not. He specifically asked why the Kings numbers are so low with the addition of Fiala and the return of Doughty (so he kind of mentioned two big things) and I answered why that was.

There are positive things baked into the Kings total. If you think Kempe and Danault are going to return to normal levels, Kopitar comes to the 35 year old cliff and the one-goal record evens out the number is sub 90, it's not, so there are positive things taken into consideration.

The PP and PK will almost surely improve. It's just extremely unlikely the Kings have a special teams index of 49 again this season. So that is one area of improvement.

The return of Doughty and the addition of Fiala.

The staggering number of man games lost to d-man has basically 0 chance of happening again.

Progression of Kaliyev to hopefully a 20 goal guy and Byfield to an NHL caliber player.

I do think the potential negatives slightly outweigh the potential positives (especially the one-goal games record, which is the massive one) and that is why the books feel the Kings will have a slightly worse season than last year. I think the betting number is right, I think some of the models discussed here are a bit to bearish.

 

[DoktorJeep]

The schedule in Oct isn’t easy. So that may be a reason for most final roster decisions after health.

They have 11 games over 21 days with no repeat matchups. 5 home, 6 away, 7 versus teams who made the playoffs. Only two vs divisional opponents, neither who made the playoffs, and 5 vs the east, where they had a lot of success last year.

Seems like a prime recipe for 22+ minutes a night of Kopitar and Doughty and Quick with 9 out of 11 starts. Every other decision is day to day.

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

As a math, statistics, historical type guy I have learned that people on forums love these things when they are positive of their team and despise it when it is negative of their team.



This same stuff was being talked about Vilardi last year, I think you are placing to much of an emphasis on pre-season. But what happens if Vilardi does play well, is there any chance he's better than VA was last year? Further, do you relegate VA down the lineup or keep Vilardi up, and what does that result in, either Kaliyev or Byfield being sent to the AHL?



Fiala is not replacing 0 goals though. He is replacing a role that was mostly played by Iafallo, Brown and AA at various different times. Those players contributed, if I had to guess about 25 goals playing in the top 6 last year. That is where the hopeful upgrade in goals comes from Fiala.

The potential for a Kopitar fall-off and Danault returning to a third line type of production is what is really going to be the potential concern for the Kings, because the offensive production up the middle would be at a level that is going to be a big challenge to making the playoffs.

Also the thing I forgot the mention, the record in 1 goal games. I think that may be even more cooked into the Kings point numbers in a lot of these models. A return to normal in one-goal games is going to lower the Kings point totals a lot.

I think we both know Vegas isn't in the business of losing money, and the people and services they use for the numbers know that the Kings are getting back a likely top 15 d-man and adding a 1st line winger but the O/U is still lower. That tells you just how well the numbers fell for the Kings last year.

Again, I don't love the play either way, not betting the Kings this year because I think Vegas numbers are pretty spot on. But a 100 point season is possible (young players improving, PP improving, PK improving) but a 90 point season is possible too (regression, aging players, return to normal results in 1 goal games)

I agree with either way, but I thought you were projecting Kings losing 19 goals off of their total....etc,

Vegas doesn't play to lose, that's for sure, but they put numbers out there to generate action, sharp money will make that line move one way or the other.....you know that as well as I do....

 

[tbrown33]

Fiala is not replacing 0 goals though. He is replacing a role that was mostly played by Iafallo, Brown and AA at various different times. Those players contributed, if I had to guess about 25 goals playing in the top 6 last year. That is where the hopeful upgrade in goals comes from Fiala.

25 is generous.

Kopitar lines, sorted by ice time (EV):

Iafallo - Kopitar - Brown: 436 minutes of ice time, 16 GF
Kempe - Kopitar - Brown: 178 minutes, 7 GF
Arvidsson - Kopitar - Brown: 113 minutes, 4 GF
Athanasiou - Kopitar - Kempe: 51 minutes, 3 GF
Arvidsson - Kopitar - Kempe: 35 minutes, 1 GF
Kempe - Kopitar - JAD: 33 minutes, 0 GF
Iafallo - Kopitar - Brown: 33 minutes, 1 GF

Combined, Kopitar's line produced 32 goals at even strength for the entire year (YIKES). For the sake of comparison, Danault's lines scored 46 goals at EV. These are your top scoring lines for the year (cumulative):

Kopitar had 13 goals at EV last year. Kempe had 26 goals at EV last year, a chunk of which came away from Kopitar. Not sure how much Iafallo/Brown/AA combined for there, but what is left over is a far cry from 25. Only 19 goals came from Kopitar's wingers combined. Fiala had 27 EV goals last year.

Not to mention, Fiala might have a "Danault effect" on his linemates, which is something that no model took account for last year. Kempe had only 16 assists last year, bc no one else on that line could score. His goal total might go down but I actually expect his point total to increase if he is with Fiala all year. They should be deadly in transition together.

 

[johnjm22]

Kopitar rarely if ever generates scoring chances at even strength. If anything he'll be holding back Fiala and Kempe.

Perhaps his level of play would increase if he were being used correctly, but it's not like Todd really has any other options.

The only way this team contends is if Byfield magically becomes a top line center this year. Based on what I've seen thus far, that's highly unlikely.

 

[FSL KINGS]

Y'all too focused on goals. King's have more depth up front. Kopitar's line needs to be respected more with Fiala & Kopi losing lockdown weight. Danault will continue being a problem for teams. Byfield will have the support of Iafallo & Kaliyev. Individual shooting percentage & goal totals may change, but the team should be much harder to play against.

 

[Schrute farms]

Agree with tbrown33. You (Herby) are basically comparing one Fiala against two players. I'd estimate that winger spot he's replacing was about 15 (at most) last season.

 

[lexlavender]

Danault had a pretty radical role change from being on Montreal to being on the Kings. I don't think he just has a new shooting percentage because of that, but to say he just immediately regresses to an average where he was a shut down guy seems like a lazy projection to me. We also can't ignore that Danault's shot metrics were also top tier all season long, it's not like he wasn't driving play.

 

[Chazz Reinhold]

Danault had a pretty radical role change from being on Montreal to being on the Kings. I don't think he just has a new shooting percentage because of that, but to say he just immediately regresses to an average where he was a shut down guy seems like a lazy projection to me. We also can't ignore that Danault's shot metrics were also top tier all season long, it's not like he wasn't driving play.

He also makes a living in the paint off of tips and rebounds and those are higher quality shots.

 

[Herby]

Y'all too focused on goals.

It's the focus with the Kings because it’s going to be biggest factor on whether the team makes the playoffs or not.

14 of the 16 playoff teams finished top 16 in GF. Only the Kings and Stars weren’t Top 16 offensive teams.
The year before 13 of the 16 playoff teams finished top 16
The year before that 13 of 16
The year before that 13 of 16

How were the Kings and Stars able to do it? For the Kings a likely unsustainable record of 10-5 in one-goal games (66.6%) that ended in regulation. When you add in OT it's a record of 19-5-11 in one goal games (70%). The Stars was even crazier and less likely to repeat.

The teams the Kings were battling for playoff contention

Vegas was 7-8 (46.6%) in regulation one goal games and 16-8-9 (62.1%) in 1 goal games
Vancouver was 6-9 (40%) in regulation one goal games and 14-9-11 (57.3%) in total 1 goal games.
Nashville was 11-8 (56.4%) in regulation one goal games and 21-8-7 (68%) in total 1 goal games
Dallas was 12-6 (66.6%) in regulation one goal games and 27-6-5 (77%) in total 1 goal games

That is how LA and Dallas got in with scoring so few goals, the chances of a feat like that happening again are very slim. Both teams will have to score more to return.

The Kings should be looking at 250 goals to have a decent shot to make the playoffs and 260 to feel comfortable about making the playoffs.

 

[kilowatt]

I think defensive scoring should improve as well. Doughty led the charge with 7 goals in 39 games, and the rest of the defense combined for 14 goals. The year prior, LA’s defense contributed 19 goals in the COVID-shortened 56-game season. The year before that, they scored 26 (in an also-short season). 14 goals from your defense is like… historically bad. That’s one area that should come back up.

Just saying that not everything in LA is going to regress.

 

[Mats26]

I think defensive scoring should improve as well. Doughty led the charge with 7 goals in 39 games, and the rest of the defense combined for 14 goals. The year prior, LA’s defense contributed 19 goals in the COVID-shortened 56-game season. The year before that, they scored 26 (in an also-short season). 14 goals from your defense is like… historically bad. That’s one area that should come back up.

Just saying that not everything in LA is going to regress.

I think we'll see Petersen being a huge cap space burden. And the righty-righty combo won't last. We need a top 4 LD. Also have my doubts on Fiala on the top line with 2 other puck carriers.

Positive side, maybe our PP gets better and a kid or 2 breaks out. I am on the fence with any huge progression since the biggest need on D was not addressed. We are way too small on the back end.

 

[BringTheReign]

Give Kopitar back his Iafallo security blanket and let Fiala catalyze Byfield's line. At least until Iafallo is included in a trade for a LD. Then put Gabe in his place.

 

[bmr]

I have, numerous times throughout this thread and others when point models are discussed, which I'm pretty sure you have seen and replied to.

Did you happen to see the post I was replying to? I guess not. He specifically asked why the Kings numbers are so low with the addition of Fiala and the return of Doughty (so he kind of mentioned two big things) and I answered why that was.

There are positive things baked into the Kings total. If you think Kempe and Danault are going to return to normal levels, Kopitar comes to the 35 year old cliff and the one-goal record evens out the number is sub 90, it's not, so there are positive things taken into consideration.

The PP and PK will almost surely improve. It's just extremely unlikely the Kings have a special teams index of 49 again this season. So that is one area of improvement.

The return of Doughty and the addition of Fiala.

The staggering number of man games lost to d-man has basically 0 chance of happening again.

Progression of Kaliyev to hopefully a 20 goal guy and Byfield to an NHL caliber player.

I do think the potential negatives slightly outweigh the potential positives (especially the one-goal games record, which is the massive one) and that is why the books feel the Kings will have a slightly worse season than last year. I think the betting number is right, I think some of the models discussed here are a bit to bearish.

Good food for thought, Herby.

I tend to bias a little toward the positive, but here are my thoughts:

--Kings 1 goal game regression will undoubtedly happen.
--Danault should regress based on his numbers from last year.
--I would expect Kempe to regress, but adding Fiala to that line should be a difference maker.
--You would expect Kopitar to be a year older and see his numbers fall, but he has a pep in his step this year and I think he is being even more accountable with the addition of Fiala.
--Adding Fiala should definitely impact this team in a very positive way, especially 5v5.
--Another year of development from the kids should equate to better point totals and depth.
--PK and PP should definitely improve, especially the PP which I believe will be way better this year and make up for much of any of the aforementioned regression.
--Kings are healthier to start, with more options to deploy (especially defense)
--Clarke can be a big X factor if he stays up with the team.
--Goaltending is a big concern for me. If Quick gets injured or misses any time, I think that significantly affects our standing in the points.

Assuming no major injuries, this team shouldn't have any problem eclipsing 90+ points. I'm betting you they take another small step forward this year and end up 100+. I'm curious how Calgary and Vegas will look this year. I think we have a decent shot at being higher than both of them at the end of the year. Not Edmonton, though.

 

[lumbergh]

Good food for thought, Herby.

I tend to bias a little toward the positive, but here are my thoughts:

--Kings 1 goal game regression will undoubtedly happen.
--Danault should regress based on his numbers from last year.
--I would expect Kempe to regress, but adding Fiala to that line should be a difference maker.
--You would expect Kopitar to be a year older and see his numbers fall, but he has a pep in his step this year and I think he is being even more accountable with the addition of Fiala.
--Adding Fiala should definitely impact this team in a very positive way, especially 5v5.
--Another year of development from the kids should equate to better point totals and depth.
--PK and PP should definitely improve, especially the PP which I believe will be way better this year and make up for much of any of the aforementioned regression.
--Kings are healthier to start, with more options to deploy (especially defense)
--Clarke can be a big X factor if he stays up with the team.
--Goaltending is a big concern for me. If Quick gets injured or misses any time, I think that significantly affects our standing in the points.

Assuming no major injuries, this team shouldn't have any problem eclipsing 90+ points. I'm betting you they take another small step forward this year and end up 100+. I'm curious how Calgary and Vegas will look this year. I think we have a decent shot at being higher than both of them at the end of the year. Not Edmonton, though.

I don't disagree with your points; they're well thought out. I would just point out the you should never put the words "regression" and "undoubtedly" in the sentence. That's not the way statistics work. If you're gonna use statistical terms, doubt is always part of the equation. If you flip a coin 9 times and it comes up heads, the probability that the next flip will come up heads is still 50%.

 

[bmr]

I don't disagree with your points; they're well thought out. I would just point out the you should never put the words "regression" and "undoubtedly" in the sentence. That's not the way statistics work. If you're gonna use statistical terms, doubt is always part of the equation. If you flip a coin 9 times and it comes up heads, the probability that the next flip will come up heads is still 50%.

Fair enough, sir.

 

[Steve Zissou]

 

[KingsHockey24]

Bring these back.

 

[Trash Panda]

Bring these back.

Speaking of bringing things back, I wouldn’t mind getting my hands on a few of those TPS twigs & mitts.

 

[Cianide]

Where has Byfield been this preseason

 

[KingsHockey24]

Speaking of bringing things back, I wouldn’t mind getting my hands on a few of those TPS twigs & mitts.

Funny you mention that -

I actually have a TPS Response 2 and TPS Response 8, both with the Frolov curve that I used when I played. (I felt bad asking my family for the expensive Bauer and Easton sticks.)

 

[KINGS17]

You guys know the math isn't taking this personally right?

The math isn't a Ducks fan trying to piss off Kings fans. It's just simulation and numbers spitting out information that will never be 100% correct.

The math is just math. It's actually the simulation model some people don't agree with, but there are too many variables to consider in any type of model like this one to make extremely accurate forecasts.

 

[bland]

Give Kopitar back his Iafallo security blanket and let Fiala catalyze Byfield's line. At least until Iafallo is included in a trade for a LD. Then put Gabe in his place.

I am hoping to eventually see:

Iafallo - Kopitar - Kempe as the big minute matchup unit

Moore - Danault - Kaliyev grinding away deep in the offensive zone for the majority of their shifts

Fiala - Byfield - Arvidsson running wild and using their speed as a change up to the more pedestrian possession based units

Lemieux - Lizotte - Grundstrom establishing and/or changing momentum