Speculation: LA Kings News, Rumors, Roster Thread part VII

[Reclamation Project]

You can retire a King, but it has to be after this year, not next.

Skiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiip, the man's a liability out there, father time is telling him he's got to go. He needs to answer that call!

 

[YP44]

Stutzle is a great player that any team would want. Does not mean Byfield is not the same

 

[Peter James Bond II]

Let's put more context to this. 1 powerplay point in 105 minutes on the powerplay. That is more time on the powerplay than total time on ice this season for:
Vilardi
Turcotte
Byfield
Strand
Tkachev
Fagemo
Moverare
Frk
JAD
Tynan

Tynan, Turcotte, Fagemo, and JAD are the only ones without a point.

So his production on the powerplay is worse than a chunk of players sent down to the AHL to improve their game, who have had less time to show they belong.

Thank you for doing my homework. I wish Sturm would do his.

 

[bland]

Sturm's PP structure is fine. The personnel is the issue. Kopitar and Doughty simply don't move the puck fast enough, and there is no real net front presence to speak of. Patience isn't a virtue when you are trying to open lanes.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

You gave my Byfield? He played 6 games with 1 assist in his D+1, how is it similar?

Vilardi? He didn't even make his NHL debut until his D+3.

D+3 is not similar idea to D+1. Comparing guys in the NHL at 18/19 to guys in the NHL at 20/21 is just not fair.

This is frankly just a very myopic way of looking at the overall point, how this forum historically criticizes the production of players. I'm sorry but I have no argument to make here because you've made the criteria so narrow it's literally impossible to say anything. That's not facilitating discussion, that's just setting yourself up to be 'right'.

We can't have this conversation because the Kings refuse to let us have it on the terms you desire. All I can say is point out how many times posters--including you--in the past have criticized everyone from our 4th liners (who have had league-above average production at worst) to guys like Iafallo and Pearson without realizing what players around the league actually do. This forum is extremely critical of points put up--maybe rightly so a sensitive subject due to lack of offense around here.

 

[Herby]

Brown should absolutely, under no circumstance be on the PP in the NHL in 2022. My guess as to why he has been tried is because of his willingness to stand in front of the goal, Dustin is 210lbs and plays a bit bigger than that when it comes to strength. The Kings don't really have anyone else that can effectively play that role (and not saying Brown is effectively playing it). The Kings PP is just so bad it could use upgrades in multiple areas. A RH shot to shoot one-timers, a left hand shot from the point, a power forward to play in front and score garbage goals.

If the Kings even had a league average special teams right now we probably have a big enough cushion where we are talking about when we make the playoffs, not if.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Brown should absolutely, under no circumstance be on the PP in the NHL in 2022. My guess as to why he has been tried is because of his willingness to stand in front of the goal, Dustin is 210lbs and plays a bit bigger than that when it comes to strength. The Kings don't really have anyone else that can effectively play that role (and not saying Brown is effectively playing it). The Kings PP is just so bad it could use upgrades in multiple areas. A RH shot to shoot one-timers, a left hand shot from the point, a power forward to play in front and score garbage goals.

If the Kings even had a league average special teams right now we probably have a big enough cushion where we are talking about when we make the playoffs, not if.

Tend to agree but what sucks is we have some of those parts, Tm just refuses to use them.

 

[kingsfan28]

Let's put more context to this. 1 powerplay point in 105 minutes on the powerplay. That is more time on the powerplay than total time on ice this season for:
Vilardi
Turcotte
Byfield
Strand
Tkachev
Fagemo
Moverare
Frk
JAD
Tynan

Tynan, Turcotte, Fagemo, and JAD are the only ones without a point.

So his production on the powerplay is worse than a chunk of players sent down to the AHL to improve their game, who have had less time to show they belong.

Just curious, can you show me, over the same 105 min of pp time how many points the other guys have? Because our pp really sucks and there's a pretty good chance, not many other points were scored there too.

 

[Herby]

This is frankly just a very myopic way of looking at the overall point, how this forum criticizes the production players. I'm sorry but I have no argument to make here because you've made the criteria so narrow it's literally impossible to say anything. That's not facilitating discussion, that's just setting yourself up to be 'right'.

We can't have this conversation because the Kings refuse to let us have it on the terms you desire.

I just didn't get the "eviscerate players who produced similarly" comment, and then the nonsense about Stutzle somehow only performing when the season was out of reach. If you want to have a discussion about the Kings not giving chances that is cool and I don't disagree, I was one of the people screaming loudly that QB should have been in LA and not Ontario last year, so I see where you are coming from. But lets just keep the discussion factual. No one on this forum is criticizing a hypothetical D+1 who put up 45 points and TS rookie season last year was pretty insanely balanced, it was nothing like Turcotte's season at UW which was mostly producing against lesser competition.

Stutzle is a 6' highly skilled and polished player who played against a lot of NA pros as a teenager in the DEL and more seamlessly transitioned to the NHL than QB who is a 6'4 more raw player who the Kings put through a more untraditional development path (an unfortunate re-occurring theme). No one should be writing off QB or labeling him the wrong pick. I think we are are the point now where we can start re-ranking the 2019 draft, but 2020 it should wait until a calendar year from now to get a better read. But I also don't think we should be criticizing that fanbase for being excited with their guy, he makes plays in the NHL that certainly indicate a massive ceiling. The attacks on QB are stupid no doubt, but we should also consider the term "those who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones", there were some incredibly stupid things said about Drew Doughty by Ottawa fans but there were also some incredibly stupid things said about EK by members of this forum, even at a time where he was carrying Ottawa on his back to a deep playoff run. They were the two best defenders in the NHL for most of the 2010's decade and both fanbases should have seen that instead of having pointless arguments attacking the other player.

 

[Stimpythecat]

https://thehockeywriters.com/kings-news-rumors-brown-reign/

 

[bland]

https://thehockeywriters.com/kings-news-rumors-brown-reign/

"Expected Goals".

Blood boiling. You cannot use fancy stats to build a roster, good lord I cannot believe I read that garbage. Using stats as a metric is 100% purely reactive. A GM MUST be proactive. This just cements my opinion that this front office must go - no wonder they can't find room for kids, their play is based on trying to achieve certain statistical goals instead of growing an organization whil under the assumption that those stats actually mean something. Goddam joke of a franchise.

Fancy stats are opium for the unwashed masses. They remove the personal responsibility of decision making in favor of copying a statistical blueprint that is devoid of what makes hockey special from other sports.

 

[No Name The Nameless]

Stutzle is one of the most exciting players to watch already. I wish the Kings had someone who gets the fans excited. So boring.

 

[Fishhead]

"Expected Goals".

Blood boiling. You cannot use fancy stats to build a roster, good lord I cannot believe I read that garbage. Using stats as a metric is 100% purely reactive. A GM MUST be proactive. This just cements my opinion that this front office must go - no wonder they can't find room for kids, their play is based on trying to achieve certain statistical goals instead of growing an organization whil under the assumption that those stats actually mean something. Goddam joke of a franchise.

Fancy stats are opium for the unwashed masses. They remove the personal responsibility of decision making in favor of copying a statistical blueprint that is devoid of what makes hockey special from other sports.

Ironically, DL leaned on advanced statistics and analytics heavily to help build a cup-winning roster, and he relied on them a lot more than our current FO does, for certain. For a few years there everyone wanted to know what the King's "formula" was and Lombardi was highly protective of his methods.

It's just a part of the puzzle, though. There are a lot of other intangible things that go into building a winning roster - emotion, leadership, camaraderie, and so on. Advanced stats are incredibly useful if you understand their context and what they are saying.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Stutzle has 8 goals and 21 points. That's Dustin Brown like numbers.

 

[BringTheReign]

"Expected Goals".

Blood boiling. You cannot use fancy stats to build a roster, good lord I cannot believe I read that garbage. Using stats as a metric is 100% purely reactive. A GM MUST be proactive. This just cements my opinion that this front office must go - no wonder they can't find room for kids, their play is based on trying to achieve certain statistical goals instead of growing an organization whil under the assumption that those stats actually mean something. Goddam joke of a franchise.

Fancy stats are opium for the unwashed masses. They remove the personal responsibility of decision making in favor of copying a statistical blueprint that is devoid of what makes hockey special from other sports.

This is an overreaction. Where did Blake say anything about only using stats to make a decision? You talk about a GM being proactive; one of the best ways to be proactive is using a tool like analytics to shore up weaknesses on a roster or exploit inefficiencies (like undervalued free agents or players to target in trades). Danault, Arvidsson, Edler, Lemieux, Moore all fit the bill there given their performances this year. If you make decisions completely without analytics you get Holland trading for Duncan Keith or Vancouver nabbing OEL. It means you're more likely to overpay for past performance in free agency instead of locking up players as they enter their primes.

Sure, analytics should absolutely not be the north star of a franchise, but it's asinine to say it shouldn't be important in decision making. Do you seriously think they aren't an integral component of Tampa or Colorado's decision making? Or even Florida's with how many rags turned to riches acquisitions they have between Bennett, Duclair, and Verhaeghe?

I'll leave a quote from our two-time Cup champion coach on the subject. There aren't many more guys as old school as Darryl, and even he knows the value of analytics to building a winning team (link).

"There's fundamentals that never change in terms of taking care of your own end and shot volume, puck possession, and things like that. When I got to LA we used the analytic part of it very effectively." Sutter said Friday. "Tampa quietly changed their style of game by bringing in certain types of players, having a better defence, getting star players to buy in. They went from a contender to winning championships."

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I just didn't get the "eviscerate players who produced similarly" comment, and then the nonsense about Stutzle somehow only performing when the season was out of reach. If you want to have a discussion about the Kings not giving chances that is cool and I don't disagree, I was one of the people screaming loudly that QB should have been in LA and not Ontario last year, so I see where you are coming from. But lets just keep the discussion factual. No one on this forum is criticizing a hypothetical D+1 who put up 45 points and TS rookie season last year was pretty insanely balanced, it was nothing like Turcotte's season at UW which was mostly producing against lesser competition.

Stutzle is a 6' highly skilled and polished player who played against a lot of NA pros as a teenager in the DEL and more seamlessly transitioned to the NHL than QB who is a 6'4 more raw player who the Kings put through a more untraditional development path (an unfortunate re-occurring theme). No one should be writing off QB or labeling him the wrong pick. I think we are are the point now where we can start re-ranking the 2019 draft, but 2020 it should wait until a calendar year from now to get a better read. But I also don't think we should be criticizing that fanbase for being excited with their guy, he makes plays in the NHL that certainly indicate a massive ceiling. The attacks on QB are stupid no doubt, but we should also consider the term "those who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones", there were some incredibly stupid things said about Drew Doughty by Ottawa fans but there were also some incredibly stupid things said about EK by members of this forum, even at a time where he was carrying Ottawa on his back to a deep playoff run. They were the two best defenders in the NHL for most of the 2010's decade and both fanbases should have seen that instead of having pointless arguments attacking the other player.

But that's my point, no one is really doing that. Hell, I think most here are pretty happy for TS given how closely we followed him draft year as well. It's more about the hyperbole and attacks in large amounts. A few fringe comments here and there are a lot different than what we're talking about. I guess in short I'm saying you're right but I believe we're talking around each other about different things.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Anyone really upset about using advanced stats to help inform your roster building better be aghast at the Arvidsson, Edler, and especially Danault moves.

Danault especially was basically top-10 C in the NHL material by the stats, ARvidsson was due a bounceback to a 50-60 point player, and Edler had more to give in a reduced role. I'd say each one of those was nailed completely on the money. Bravo by blake and co for using them for that purpose; now if they could only use them to inform deployment...

 

[TruKingFan]

This is an immense overreaction.

You expect anything less from the drama queen herself? Yeah.....goddamn joke of a franchise that has turned the drowning ship HMS DLombardi around. Everyone here was just looking for "progress" this year - and so far, Blake et.al. have delivered that. Yeah it isn't pretty at times and fvck Luc for the ugly chrome domes but sick of the negative rhetoric just because it's THIS management/coaching group that's making progress that most here hope won't happen.

 

[FSL KINGS]

Blake going off expected goals for doesn't matter. When looking to get a top 6 player there are only a handful of players available. Sorting that group by expected goals for gets you an order for the 5 or so targets. Then it comes down to what team you can make a deal with & how much they're asking. By the end of it how you sorted the guys to target 1st doesn't matter all that much. Just a tool for sorting out the 1st step.

Edit: going through that stat & pulling out available players will get you a decent idea of who Blake is looking at.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Regardless i really doubt Blake and co are just using generic XGF when they've hired a who's-who of analytics the last few years. Plus with the good'ol boys club they've got there's no way they aren't SOMEWHAT reliant on 'what they see' in combination.

 

[Chazz Reinhold]

Regardless i really doubt Blake and co are just using generic XGF when they've hired a who's-who of analytics the last few years. Plus with the good'ol boys club they've got there's no way they aren't SOMEWHAT reliant on 'what they see' in combination.

Yannetti has made pretty clear that their scouting approach after having hired Vollman and Speak within the past few seasons is a combination of traditional scouting mixed with analytics.

It’s probably also worth mentioning that simply labeling anything that is a stat that wasn’t tracked 15 years ago as “analytics” or “fancy stats” and bemoaning their use in roster building casts aside all kinds of useful information. Want to build a team that’s great in transition and defends the blue line well? You’d probably be very interested in starting with collecting and targeting players who rate highly in a) pass or carry defensive zone exits numbers, b) pass or carry offensive zone entry numbers, and c) pass or carry defensive zone denial numbers. Those are stats that weren’t widely tracked even just over a decade and a half ago. If a player rates in the 99th percentile at carry zone entries in the league, that’s not some crazy invented numbers. It just means he’s better than 99% of the league at how often he successfully enters the offensive zone with possession of the puck. Seems like it could be pretty useful when building a team.

 

[Trash Panda]

Anyone really upset about using advanced stats to help inform your roster building better be aghast at the Arvidsson, Edler, and especially Danault moves.

Danault especially was basically top-10 C in the NHL material by the stats, ARvidsson was due a bounceback to a 50-60 point player, and Edler had more to give in a reduced role. I'd say each one of those was nailed completely on the money. Bravo by blake and co for using them for that purpose; now if they could only use them to inform deployment...

The only thing is, those are all objectively damn fine players without the advanced stats to back it up, just by watching how they play the game.

There isn’t anything wrong with advanced stats as a tool of measure, but I absolutely agree it isn’t a roster building tool.

 

[Telos]

Brown is a tough call and obviously, this board is going to go crazy when he re-signs, but as long as they are 1-year deals for like $1 million or something I don't think you can say no. It's not Brown's fault that he is being misutilized. He is the longest-tenured King in team history, a pretty big leader for the kids, and isn't the reason that much of a liability on the bottom 6.

 

[redcard]

Problem with expected goals is a player flubbing a shot from the circle into a defenders ankles is worth the same as an open one timer off a cross ice pass from the same spot. These advance stats all tend to tell us what we already know: the guys shoot the puck a lot but aren't particularly good at picking corners or creating space for open looks.

 

[FSL KINGS]

Brown is a tough call and obviously, this board is going to go crazy when he re-signs, but as long as they are 1-year deals for like $1 million or something I don't think you can say no. It's not Brown's fault that he is being misutilized. He is the longest-tenured King in team history, a pretty big leader for the kids, and isn't the reason that much of a liability on the bottom 6.

I'm just being irrational thinking they would staple Brown to Byfield for the whole year if he's re-signed. No way that could happen.