I wasn’t using it as an excuse hence I emphasised my wording of ’some degree’, its more about context.
Stutzle was always more NHL ready and they were very different injuries with different recovery needs. Given that Byfield was always on a longer development curve in my view this coming season is the one he has to make a meaningful step. I was never going to compare their development time lines from the moment they were drafted.
Kupari, yes his injury was 2020 but he lost significant development time. He took some good steps last year and for his draft position and the given context I’m ok for where he is. However another where next year is a must for significant improvement. My hope is that he makes Iafallo unneeded, purely for financial reasons & no I don’t mean I expect him to be as good as AI.
Vilardi, he’s the one where I’m properly worried and whilst he’s been fit there is no that back affected his development timeline and likely his ceiling.
Turcotte just hasn’t stayed fit at all. I don’t think there can be any dispute that hasn’t affected his development.
This was purely in response to a timeline driven assessment which I acknowledged was concerning. I’m just willing to give it another season given the context of the particular players, expected development timeline and the nature of the injuries before my concerns become worries. I’ve also said elsewhere that I’d prefer they were more assertive with things including deployment. However, it’s not the journey it’s the end results and we aren’t there yet.
So in summary, yes I think injuries have had a fairly significant on our prospects development but I also think they haven’t made best use of them or given them enough of a leash at times. In particular the use of Byfield and Kaliyev on the power play and Byfield being given dross line-mates. AA should never have been in the lineup, let alone on the wing of our No 1 prospect and I’ve been vocal about that since the moment he re-signed. I actually don’t mind how they used Arty 5/5 at all but they cannot do that this year and he needs to be on pp1.
I think you are placing to much of en emphasis on injury as to why some players have struggled. Does it factor in to reaching a ceiling? Certainly. Does it cause a player to fall significantly off of a ceiling? I don't think so.
Using Turcotte as an example, do you really think injury is the only reason or even the main reason he has failed to really come close to living up to his draft position in any of the season since he was drafted?
I tried pointing this 2.5 years ago, but 1 goal in 19 Big Ten games as a Freshman should have been a real eye-opener. I was met with "cherry picking stats" for not including games vs. Arizona St and Nebraska-Omaha with no future NHL'ers. But against the toughest competition his offensive game was putrid for a Top 5 pick. That has been followed up by 12 goals in 63 career AHL games. It sucks that he has missed time, but let's be honest here, when he has played there just hasn't been any indication that he was a player who has warranted where he was taken. The development decisions sucked, the AHL deployment has sucked, but let's call a spade a spade, the evaluation decision to draft him sucked too. Even had he been healthy, stayed another year in college and been deployed better in the AHL, what is his career projection?
This is kind of true of Vilardi as well, are we really going to believe that Vilardi would have produced a ROI that you expect from a #11 pick had he not been injured?
As KP pointed out, there have been other players to suffer major injuries, but when they have been able to play, (in most cases) they have looked better than Turcotte and Vilardi have.
I totally get what your saying, but don't you think any of these guys has to have some sort of defensive awareness and abililty to play in their own end? Kaliev on the top line would've been great , but what good is it if he doesn't know how to defend or be in a position to. What good is it if the dman man pinches and his job is to cover the point and he's unaware of this simple play because all he knows is offense and joins the play instead?
The defensive awareness and rounding out of the defensive game can be done later on in the NHL career. As discussed before plenty of players have gone that path in the NHL.
Were the Kings expecting Kopitar to be a Selke winner as a 19 and 20 year old? No
Were the Hawks worried about how defensively aware an 18/19 year old Patrick Kane was? No
And there have been numerous other examples (basically every offensive player in the league who became decent defensively). The Ducks and Sens I'm sure will address defensive concerns with Zegras and Stutzle, but the most important thing is developing the offensive game, the Kings don't think that way and the results show it.
The AHL obsession, which produced bizarre development decisions with the Kings two highest picks in a decade just shows that the Kings don't care about maximizing an offensive ceiling, that learning the Kings defensively oriented system is the most important thing. And that is just a very unusual way of developing players you at least claim that you are counting on for offense. The Kings are literally doing it from reverse of most teams.
There is no track record of success using Blake's method.
This is the point that I think the eternal optimist group here just fails to grasp.
No one in the NHL has had more AHL games from teenagers over the last 5 years. That tells me that the Kings are doing this to just pound in the need for these players to be "system players" which is just a terrible way to handle players who may have some upside.
Right now the Kings remind me of Wisconsin and Iowa football with how they develop players with the sole intent to having them work in a system. Those football programs have always limited their ceiling with this thinking, and I think we are seeing the same thing with a lot of Kings prospects. Most notably QB and Kaliyev.
I'm doing the needful again and posting from a new Athletic article, this one from Corey Pronman:
Ranking the best NHL players and prospects under 23: Jack Hughes tops the list.
He ranks 170 prospects under 23 and has a writeup for each one. Here's the list of 8 Kings.
LA Kings:
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Rank[/TD]
[TD]Tier[/TD]
[TD]Player[/TD]
[TD]Position[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]22[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]Quinton Byfield[/TD]
[TD]C[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]33[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]Arthur Kaliyev[/TD]
[TD]RW[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]87[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]Brandt Clarke[/TD]
[TD]D[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]108[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]Alex Turcotte[/TD]
[TD]C[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]123[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]Rasmus Kupari[/TD]
[TD]C[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]139[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]Samuel Fagemo[/TD]
[TD]RW[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]160[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]Jordan Spence[/TD]
[TD]D[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]167[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]Kirill Kirsanov[/TD]
[TD]D[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
And, since we seem to compare ourselves to them so much lately, the list of 9 Ducks:
Anaheim Ducks:
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Rank[/TD]
[TD]Tier[/TD]
[TD]Player[/TD]
[TD]Position[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]Trevor Zegras[/TD]
[TD]C[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]24[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]Mason McTavish[/TD]
[TD]C[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]34[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]Jamie Drysdale[/TD]
[TD]D[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]51[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]Olen Zellweger[/TD]
[TD]D[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]82[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]Nathan Gaucher[/TD]
[TD]C[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]102[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]Drew Helleson[/TD]
[TD]D[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]121[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]Isac Lunderström[/TD]
[TD]C[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]152[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]Pavel Mintyukov[/TD]
[TD]D[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]166[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]Calle Clang[/TD]
[TD]G[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Tough to look at, and I don't agree with everything, but still this group just got passed by with other teams who develop prospects in a more traditional way. It's pretty bad for a team that had four 1st round picks in the top 11 over a five year period to produce a list like that.
With QB, I like the raw talent but his ranking is probably fair and it's not entirely his fault. Unlike Vilardi and Turcotte the development decisions really probably have damaged the ceiling significantly.
D+1, Age 18 year wasted in the AHL gaining nothing.
D+2, Age 19 year playing minimal minutes with bad players while looking lost in the NHL.
But Year 2 and all the issues that came with it are a result of the poor decisions of Year 1, so you just keep compounding the problem. Suddenly you have two seasons since drafting the highest player you'd picked in a dozen years with really nothing to show for it.
This is why so many are angry and disappointed with the development choices and can't just say "But 3rd place in the Pacific!" to try and gloss over those problems and poor choices.