Speculation: LA Kings News, Rumors, Roster Thread part VII

[Statto]

In a vacuum, I don't either. Reward a good soldier/leader/vet for what he's doing in the AHL. But it's just another example of not putting youth in those top-six/PP positions. Like I said, in this case, it came at the expense of a BUNCH of kids--could have easily moved Kaliyev up or Turcotte in or Byfield up or any number of things. The idea isn't 'one callup is bad,' it's that these things happen repeatedly and they always err on the side of age before beauty.

We discussed this one at the time. I felt and still do that it was part of the agreement with him coming here, that he’d get a call up to show what he’s got. Blake has definitely shown he treats players well and stays true to his word. That’s important in terms of signing free agents. I think in terms of the big picture it was worth it a Tynan is important down in Ontario and from what I understand is an outstanding mentor down there. He only played 2 games and like Frk if you call him up you have to give him pp time.

Which other call ups were you thinking off? Frk I agree was pointless in terms of the big picture. Wolanin was part of the defensive conveyor belt and I forget the other options so not sure if that was a questionable one.

I know you are including ice time, which is fair enough.

Part of my issue with peoples stances on this (I don’t include you) is that a lot of the people wanting the kids to get more playing time would have then jumped on Blake if we didn’t make the play-offs. I’ve said all along that I’d play the development long game over making the play-offs, so yes I’d have played the kids and at the same time I’d have been OK with missing the play-offs as a result. A lot of the voices on here would instead be banging the drum of ‘BLuc failed to make the play-offs, they said they WOULD do it‘ - when they actually (and rightl) said it was the AIM.

 

[Statto]

It truly is amazing some of the totally false stuff that gets posted here, I truly wonder if people just are ignorant to the rest of the league or they are outright making stuff up to try and deflect any criticism from the Kings for their awful results evaluating, developing and placing players into roles on the hockey team in a timely manner in comparison to the rest of the league.

No, NHL teams are not neutering offensive players from developing their offensive games at a young age to try and round them into NHL players. The usual path is to let a players offensive game develop and then work on the defense. Not damage the offensive ceiling to make them better defensively. Anze Kopitar had no defensive structure his first two years in the league, the Kings let him develop into an offensive star and then under TM they worked on his defensive game to get him to become what he has become, because again that stuff is teachable.

And for the 887th time, there is zero truth to the idea that "It's only McDavid types" producing before their old enough or barely old enough to buy a beer. And I would be happy to show my work on that.

Here is a list of every player drafted in 2015 and beyond who became a 2nd line producing player (45 point or 20G pace over a minimum of 25 games) before their 22nd birthday aka "barely old enough to buy a beer". . Judge for yourself, this is factual information not some fantasy living between someones ears that they waste our time sharing.





Anaheim
Trevor Zegras (D+3)
Max Comtois (D+4)



Arizona
Clayton Keller (D+2)


Boston
Jake DeBrusk (D+4)


Buffalo
Jack Eichel (D+1)
Sam Reinart (D+2)


Calgary
Matthew Tkachuk (D+1)


Carolina
Sebastien Aho (D+2)
Andre Svechnikov (D+1)
Martin Necas (D+3)
Seth Jarvis (D+2)


Chicago
Alex DeBrincat (D+2)
Nick Schmaltz (D+4)



Colorado
Cale Makar (D+3)
Mikko Rantanen (D+2)


Columbus
P-L Dubois (D+2)


Dallas
Jason Robertson (D+4)


Detroit
Lucas Raymond (D+2)
Moritz Seider (D+3)


Edmonton
Connor McDavid (D+1)
Kailer Yamamoto (D+3)


Florida
Anton Lundell (D+2)


Minnesota
Matt Boldy (D+3)


Los Angeles
None



Montreal
Cole Caufield (D+3)
Nick Suzuki (D+3)


Nashville
None


New Jersey
Nico Hischier (D+1)
Jesper Bratt (D+3)
Jack Huges (D+2)


NY Islanders
Mat Barzal (D+3)
Anthony Beauviller (D+3)


NY Rangers
Adam Fox (D+4)


Ottawa
Thomas Chabot (D+4)
Josh Norris (D+4)
Brady Tkachuk (D+1)
Tim Stutzle (D+1)


Philadelphia
Travis Konecny (D+3)
Joel Farabee (D+3)


Pittsburgh
None


San Jose
Timo Meier (D+2)


St. Louis
Robert Thomas (D+3)


Tampa Bay
None


Toronto
Auston Matthews (D+1)
Mitchell Marner (D+2)


Vegas (Joined League 2017)
None


Vancouver
Brock Boeser (D+3)
Elias Petersson (D+2)
Quinn Hughes (D+3)


Washington
None


Winnipeg
Patric Laine (D+1)
Kyle Connor (D+3)
-------------------------

That is 45 players either "Not old enough to buy a beer" or "barely old enough to buy a beer" that became 2nd line players or high end offensive producers from the blueline. But yes, clearly it's "just McDavid"

The Kings were one of 6 teams to not produce a 2nd line scorer within 4 seasons in the organization between 2015 and now.

The comparison of the Kings to those other teams...


Kings - 0 playoff series wins since 2015 & 6 total 1st round picks (11, 20, 5, 22, 2, 7)

Nashville - 5 playoff series wins since 2015 & 7 total 1st round picks (17, 30, 24, 11, 19, 27, 17)

Pittsburgh - 9 playoff series wins & 2 total 1st round picks (21, 21)

Tampa - 15 playoff series wins & 3 total 1st round picks (14, 27, 27)

Washington - 8 playoff series wins & 5 total 1st round picks (22, 28, 31, 25, 22)

Vegas - expansion team


But yes, the Kings are just doing what everyone else is doing, there is nothing to be worried about with either the evaluation or development decisons.

This is a good post and as they facts it is concerning. There is a mitigation to ‘some degree’ in that all four first round forwards have had significant injuries.

xxxxxxxx

Byfield - Break + COVID as he was coming back from that.
Kupari - ACL
Turcotte - Lots of stuff, thankfully they seem unrelated to a specific issue other than his luck.
Vilardi - Back


I know you are focusing on forwards but as you listed them in your summary.

Bjornfot has played games and given his age, position etc has performed to his draft pedigree.
Clarke - Even he got mono at the wrong time, then he picked up that injury last season that fortunately wasn’t serious. Let’s see how he does in camp.

xxxxxxxx


However, the only one that any of the injuries likely mess with long term is Vilardi for whom it certainly affects his ceiling. The others it should be development timelines only. So if Byfield doesn’t make a meaningful jump AND one of the others doesn’t also take a big step then this is definitely a post to bookmark and revisit.

Note: If we flip one of the other guys (not Byfield) for a meaningful piece whose value reflects their ceilings then I’d take that as a win too.

 

[Axl Rhoadz]

back surgery for herniated disc (why he was missing the playoffs) and out 3-5 months.

I'm sure they'll play it cautious and w/recovery as well as training so I think most of us expect him to miss the first month.

Got it. The post made it sound like something was confirmed that he wouldn't start the season.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Got it. The post made it sound like something was confirmed that he wouldn't start the season.

Nah, it's pretty loose, I just think they'll probably play it safe given it's the beginning of the season as well and missing workouts and camp means it's probably safer to have some ramp-up time.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

We discussed this one at the time. I felt and still do that it was part of the agreement with him coming here, that he’d get a call up to show what he’s got. Blake has definitely shown he treats players well and stays true to his word. That’s important in terms of signing free agents. I think in terms of the big picture it was worth it a Tynan is important down in Ontario and from what I understand is an outstanding mentor down there. He only played 2 games and like Frk if you call him up you have to give him pp time.

Which other call ups were you thinking off? Frk I agree was pointless in terms of the big picture. Wolanin was part of the defensive conveyor belt and I forget the other options so not sure if that was a questionable one.

I know you are including ice time, which is fair enough.

Part of my issue with peoples stances on this (I don’t include you) is that a lot of the people wanting the kids to get more playing time would have then jumped on Blake if we didn’t make the play-offs. I’ve said all along that I’d play the development long game over making the play-offs, so yes I’d have played the kids and at the same time I’d have been OK with missing the play-offs as a result. A lot of the voices on here would instead be banging the drum of ‘BLuc failed to make the play-offs, they said they WOULD do it‘ - when they actually (and rightl) said it was the AIM.

Again, this is why I hesitate to give examples--because then people scrutinize that one example and go "it was just one game, it was just three games, it was just 10 games."

You can rationalize any individual one of these events away as an aberration, one off, or gentleman's agreement; you cannot in good faith rationalize a whole year's pattern, especially when it even trickles down to a lack of PP time in the AHL.

Someone simply asked me who the vets are who will be c***b***ck this year and I gave a few names and a reason why history shows that's a possibility. EVERYONE hopes I'm wrong. But history shows us completely the opposite. That's all.

Edit: and I still don't buy the digressing argument that playing the kids more would have resulted in missing the playoffs, given PP1 and Anze Kopitar were both getting scored ON and all we were really asking was reducing Kopitars minutes and some of PP1s time and handing a few of those situations to others. It's not this dramatic "QB to 1C" argument that keeps getting trotted out as literally no one was fighting for that.

 

[Statto]

Again, this is why I hesitate to give examples--because then people scrutinize that one example and go "it was just one game, it was just three games, it was just 10 games."

You can rationalize any individual one of these events away as an aberration, one off, or gentleman's agreement; you cannot in good faith rationalize a whole year's pattern, especially when it even trickles down to a lack of PP time in the AHL.

Someone simply asked me who the vets are who will be c***b***ck this year and I gave a few names and a reason why history shows that's a possibility. EVERYONE hopes I'm wrong. But history shows us completely the opposite. That's all.

Edit: and I still don't buy the digressing argument that playing the kids more would have resulted in missing the playoffs, given PP1 and Anze Kopitar were both getting scored ON and all we were really asking was reducing Kopitars minutes and some of PP1s time and handing a few of those situations to others. It's not this dramatic "QB to 1C" argument that keeps getting trotted out as literally no one was fighting for that.

I get what you’re saying, I do. I was not meaning to pick at your example with Tynan but followed up as we’d previously discussed it. I was also trying to think about the call ups because there were a few I didn’t like however that may have been which prospect came up. Keep giving examples, it’s better discussion

I don’t think playing the kids would have definitely meant we would have missed the play-offs, but it might have done. It’s a price I’d have been willing to play. I’m just saying what I think would happen IF it were the result.

Equally maybe with pp time Byfield clicks, scores another 20 goals and is a driving force as we get past Calgary in the 2nd round, we will never know. I would rather regret being positive and assertive in our decision making than being risk adverse.

 

[Statto]

Nah, it's pretty loose, I just think they'll probably play it safe given it's the beginning of the season as well and missing workouts and camp means it's probably safer to have some ramp-up time.

A couple of recent pods have emphasised he might miss it, which makes me think there’s a bit of back channel briefing going on. Equally I could be way over thinking it because they need content to discuss, as much as I want content to overanalyse.

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

Because 45 is a good number that makes a player a 2nd liner? I mean you can make it 40 and gain a few names or you can make it 50 and lose a couple, but it's not going to change the fact that you and Axl just are just ignorant to how many players are contributing in the league before their 21st or 22nd birthday. It's not 1997 anymore, this is a league where players on ELC's are counted on to contribute, even on contending teams.

Trevor Moore had 48 points last year, I feel like that is a pretty good range to call someone a 2nd liner.

What do you think is a good number to make someone a 2nd liner?

I don't know where you are coming from with the 35 goal thing, was that supposed to be directed at someone else? A 35 goal player in the NHL is very clearly a 1st line player.

I dunno, 133 players hit 45 points.....96 2nd line players out there.....theoretically......

As far as contributing, well, let's see.....4 players out of the top 50, drafted 2017 or later.....

8 out of the next 50....drafted 2017 or later
3 out of the next 50 drafted 2017 or later
5 out of the next 50 drafted 2017 or later and we are now talking about 30 points etc
7 out of the next 50.....

So 250 players, and 27 players have "contributed" from the past 5 drafts.....

Yea...it's very common

 

[Herby]

I dunno, 133 players hit 45 points.....96 2nd line players out there.....theoretically......

As far as contributing, well, let's see.....4 players out of the top 50, drafted 2017 or later.....

8 out of the next 50....drafted 2017 or later
3 out of the next 50 drafted 2017 or later
5 out of the next 50 drafted 2017 or later and we are now talking about 30 points etc
7 out of the next 50.....

So 250 players, and 27 players have "contributed" from the past 5 drafts.....

Yea...it's very common

This is what people are talking about with you and Axl building straw mans.

No one is expecting any of the Kings players taken under Rob Blake to be Top 50 or Top 100 scorers in the NHL at this point, you know this, Axl knows this so why bring it up?

But the expectation when taking players at 2, 5, 11 in those drafts is they are already firmly established with upside to take a further big step this season. That is what other teams with similar picks around the Kings are getting.

Can I ask you, since you supported the move and still do.

What were the Kings expecting to get out of putting Turcotte in the AHL at 19?

Was it to increase his offensive ceiling or mold him into a “Kings type of player”?

Do you believe using the stuff I have posted that perhaps the molding into “Kings type of players” has a severely negative effect on long-term offensive upside of Kings prospects?

With players like Werenski, Caufield and Beniers on the record saying how important dominating as a teenage player at one level before making the jump is.

Do you believe these players are wrong and overstating it?

Why would they say it if it didn’t matter where they played?

Why were they able to immediately jump into the NHL without needing to be re-programmed as good little soldiers into their NHL systems?

Or is it perhaps the Kings choices with high end players are wrong or flawed?

 

[Axl Rhoadz]

This is what people are talking about with you and Axl building straw mans.

take a drink, strawman

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

This is what people are talking about with you and Axl building straw mans.

No one is expecting any of the Kings players taken under Rob Blake to be Top 50 or Top 100 scorers in the NHL at this point, you know this, Axl knows this so why bring it up?

But the expectation when taking players at 2, 5, 11 in those drafts is they are already firmly established with upside to take a further big step this season. That is what other teams with similar picks around the Kings are getting.

Can I ask you, since you supported the move and still do.

What were the Kings expecting to get out of putting Turcotte in the AHL at 19?

Was it to increase his offensive ceiling or mold him into a “Kings type of player”?

Do you believe using the stuff I have posted that perhaps the molding into “Kings type of players” has a severely negative effect on long-term offensive upside of Kings prospects?

With players like Werenski, Caufield and Beniers on the record saying how important dominating as a teenage player at one level before making the jump is.

Do you believe these players are wrong and overstating it?

Why would they say it if it didn’t matter where they played?

Why were they able to immediately jump into the NHL without needing to be re-programmed as good little soldiers into their NHL systems?

Or is it perhaps the Kings choices with high end players are wrong or flawed?

You realize I went TWO HUNDRED AND FIFTY PLAYERS DEEP.....that's not....top 100......and out of TWO HUNDRED AND FIFTY PLAYERS....only TWENTY SEVEN.....are there that have been drafted since 2017....

So again....tell me how COMMON it is....that these YOUNG PLAYERS ARE CONTRIBUTING.... ?

 

[All The Kings Men]

Athanasiou was a 4th round draft pick of the Red Wings.

Byfield - Break + COVID as he was coming back from that.
Kupari - ACL
Turcotte - Lots of stuff, thankfully they seem unrelated to a specific issue other than his luck.
Vilardi - Back

Clarke - Even he got mono at the wrong time, then he picked up that injury last season that fortunately wasn’t serious. Let’s see how he does in camp.

Just feel like tossing this in there...


That's the stuff you all KNOW about. Player development isn't exclusively limited to health and visibility

Remember all the rumors about Bernier not handling his assignment to Manchester well?
Remember the drama surrounding Bud Holloway?

a prospects physical health is not the only factor that can delay or hinder development

watching some of the arguments around here is like watching people argue about which iceberg is bigger based exclusively on the part sticking out of the water

 

[All The Kings Men]

A couple of recent pods have emphasised he might miss it, which makes me think there’s a bit of back channel briefing going on

I know I'm quoting you twice in a row... not picking on you just happens to be the subject matter I'm responding to


While there certainly is SOME back channel briefing on some topics (things with specific dates attached - buildings, jerseys, marketing campaigns etc) when it comes to health I'm willing to say there's none or next to none.

 

[Axl Rhoadz]

watching some of the arguments around here is like watching people argue about which iceberg is bigger based exclusively on the part sticking out of the water

Wait a second...are you implying that we, the fans, might not have all of the information needed to accurately understand or asses the inner-workings of the LA Kings organization?! How dare you, sir....how....dare....you.

 

[kilowatt]

Athanasiou was a 4th round draft pick of the Red Wings.

Just feel like tossing this in there...


That's the stuff you all KNOW about. Player development isn't exclusively limited to health and visibility

Remember all the rumors about Bernier not handling his assignment to Manchester well?
Remember the drama surrounding Bud Holloway?

a prospects physical health is not the only factor that can delay or hinder development

watching some of the arguments around here is like watching people argue about which iceberg is bigger based exclusively on the part sticking out of the water

Speaking of, what was the deal with Bud Holloway?

 

[All The Kings Men]

Speaking of, what was the deal with Bud Holloway?

I have no idea but I'm assuming it was some sort of interpersonal conflict.

 

[King'sPawn]

Speaking of, what was the deal with Bud Holloway?

He was scheduled to be the next call up. But got discouraged with the addition of grinding veterans. Might have involved money as well. So, he signed a contract to play overseas instead.

Lombardi had quite a reaction to it. Kings GM Dean Lombardi on Holloway, Moller’s European Vacation

 

[King'sPawn]

Since injuries are now being used...
Stutzle with a fractured arm was out for 2 months (prior to 2021 season starting): Stützle Injured During Practice, Out 6-8 Weeks

Kupari injury was in 2020.

Vilardi has reportedly been healthy since the end of the 2020 season.

Marco Rossi played all of last season, including 2 in the NHL, after developing heart complications from COVID.

The Kings aren't the only team to have injured prospects. The injuries mitigate some issues, but the deployment of prospects with the Kings is unique. There's one common denominator - it's the Kings.

Excuse and be an apologist all you want, but Yannetti has said himself about the preference to have prospects play defense and that slow-boiling is their choice.

That's not because of injuries. Or COVID. Or internal demons. Or the players not being good enough. Or the celestial alignment of the sky when the players first put on a Kings jersey.

It's an acknowledged preference and tactic. And they aren't showing flexibility on this.

 

[Herby]

Also just to add GBH. hockey is a physical and violent sport where players get injured. That is why you do pace, assuming you have a large enough sample size, which I think 25 games is.

A guy with 40 pts in 65 games is a 2nd liner.

Also pace for young guys called up. By your logic Boldy was not a 2nd liner last year despite having 39 points in 47 games, a 68 point pace.

Since injuries are now being used...
Stutzle with a fractured arm was out for 2 months (prior to 2021 season starting): Stützle Injured During Practice, Out 6-8 Weeks

Kupari injury was in 2020.

Vilardi has reportedly been healthy since the end of the 2020 season.

Marco Rossi played all of last season, including 2 in the NHL, after developing heart complications from COVID.

The Kings aren't the only team to have injured prospects. The injuries mitigate some issues, but the deployment of prospects with the Kings is unique. There's one common denominator - it's the Kings.

Excuse and be an apologist all you want, but Yannetti has said himself about the preference to have prospects play defense and that slow-boiling is their choice.

That's not because of injuries. Or COVID. Or internal demons. Or the players not being good enough. Or the celestial alignment of the sky when the players first put on a Kings jersey.

It's an acknowledged preference and tactic. And they aren't showing flexibility on this.

You can add Josh Norris to this.

Tore ACL at the 2018/2019 WJC. Missed the remainder of his college season and the Sens development and rookie camps. Made it back for camp but was not yet 100%, which was probably why he spent the year in the AHL.

But it did not stop him from being deployed as a top 6 forward in 2020-2021 and making the all-rookie team, followed it up scoring at a 45 goal pace last year (where he suffered a somewhat bad shoulder injury that caused him to miss a month) and signing an 8 year $63m deal.

People are indeed leaning on injuries to much to excuse the unorthodox development strategies by the Kings. I also think to some extent for players short-comings as well, Norris for instance has missed more time with injury than Turcotte has. Being injured is a negative thing and can effect how valuable you are over a full season, but injuries being used to excuse lack production is a tougher thing for me to accept.

 

[cyclones22]

I fully understand that we as fans don't see anything other than the tip of the iceberg when it comes to reasoning of deployment, whether NHL or AHL club. I'm not targeting you here, Jesse, but I'm using your example. I see a lot of prospect blaming for the shortcomings of performance for the young forwards and it's annoying. All of them? ALL of them are to blame for not showing out? Not scouting or development or coaching.

Did the Kings just shake the forward prospect tree and Vilardi, Byfield, Kupari, Turcotte and Arty fall out of it? Same as JAD, Fagemo, Akil Thomas, Pinelli, Chromiak, Simontaival and Laferriere. That is the forward pipeline. The point is that the Kings selected these kids. Some of them better damn pan out to be 1st or 2nd liners, because if you're blaming the kids for not being good enough, then the Kings are picking the wrong damn kids.

I just don't accept hand-waving of the Kings process for forward scouting and development being good while laying the onus mostly on the kids for not "taking" spots in the top 6. At worst it's equal blame to all parties. But the Kings staff don't get a pass. Unless you're handing out contract extensions or promotions? No benefit of the doubt until they actually place some top sixers in the lineup.

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

Also just to add GBH. hockey is a physical and violent sport where players get injured. That is why you do pace, assuming you have a large enough sample size, which I think 25 games is.

A guy with 40 pts in 65 games is a 2nd liner.

Also pace for young guys called up. By your logic Boldy was not a 2nd liner last year despite having 39 points in 47 games, a 68 point pace.


You can add Josh Norris to this.

Tore ACL at the 2018/2019 WJC. Missed the remainder of his college season and the Sens development and rookie camps. Made it back for camp but was not yet 100%, which was probably why he spent the year in the AHL.

But it did not stop him from being deployed as a top 6 forward in 2020-2021 and making the all-rookie team, followed it up scoring at a 45 goal pace last year and signing an 8 year $63m deal.

People are indeed leaning on injuries to much to excuse the unorthodox development strategies by the Kings.

Bolded - correct, that was more I had 5 minutes to spare, brute force those stats out etc, I did not take PPG or pace into account.....even if I had.....what is there another 10....maybe?

Again, you seem to think it's as common as the cold.....and it's just not.

 

[dman3474]

We really need on ice to start ASAP.

I think rookies start next week, correct?

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

We really need on ice to start ASAP.

I think rookies start next week, correct?

September 16 is when the rookie tournament starts in San Jose.

Rookie Face-Off 2022 | San Jose Barracuda

www.sjbarracuda.com

 

[Statto]

I know I'm quoting you twice in a row... not picking on you just happens to be the subject matter I'm responding to


While there certainly is SOME back channel briefing on some topics (things with specific dates attached - buildings, jerseys, marketing campaigns etc) when it comes to health I'm willing to say there's none or next to none.

Fair enough… I was clearly over thinking it… starved of real news for the coming season despite some of the great content. Thanks Jesse.
BTW: Feel free to pick on me, I often deserve it… especially this week (See Reign thread ).

 

[YP44]

back surgery for herniated disc (why he was missing the playoffs) and out 3-5 months.

I'm sure they'll play it cautious and w/recovery as well as training so I think most of us expect him to miss the first month.

did he just have surgery?