Speculation: LA Kings News, Rumors, Roster Thread part VII

[GoldenBearHockey]

Sure, he does. There's a big difference there, though. TZ is getting 75% ozone starts while the Ducks' regular center taking the most beating is Lundestrom...at 35%. Considering he's getting an avg of 20 min a game for the last 5 games,that's a team force feeding a guy literally all the offensive minutes between that and PP.

W the Kings, Byfield is getting 63%, while Kopitar is getting 47%. TOf course Byfield has also averaged under 12 minutes a game, so you can't say he's eating all the O time, and he's getting ZERO PP time.

Point is only if we're here to go OMG LOOK HOW GOOD HE IS should point out he doesn't even have to see the neutral zone never mind the D zone.

Hence my comments about him!!! lol good player, great offensive......won't win with just that in his toolbelt.

 

[SettlementRichie10]

Byfield over Stutzle is still very much up for debate. We can be Jerry Seinfeld cigar nodding about that pick five years from now.

Turcotte over Zegras looks just about decided, though. Even if Turcotte carves out an actual NHL career, which is not a guarantee at all at this point, Zegras is clearly the more talented offensive player, protected or not. If Turcotte could be protected and produce like Zegras, the Kings would be doing that.

Our best line is made up entirely of outside players trades and FAs. How much more of a red flag do you need? Either our vaunted forward prospects aren’t that vaunted, or our front office has clue how to develop them. It’s one or the other.

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

Byfield over Stutzle is still very much up for debate. We can be be Jerry Seinfeld cigar nodding about that pick five years from now.

Turcotte over Zegras looks just about decided, though. Even if Turcotte carves out an actual NHL career, which is not a guarantee at all at this point, Zegras is clearly the more talented offensive player, protected or not. If Turcotte could be protected and produce like Zegras, the Kings would be doing that.

Our best line is made up entirely of outside players trades and FAs. How much more of a red flag do you need? Either our vaunted forward prospects aren’t that vaunted, or our front office has clue how to develop them. It’s one or the other.

No...not even remotely as simple as that,

Our forward prospects CAN be that Vaunted and STILL not play top line minutes because the organization won't put up with defensive mistakes because they want to make the playoffs,

ANA was under no impression of that....so they really literally, had nothing to lose by letting Zegras out and go here...play...

 

[crassbonanza]

Sure, he does. There's a big difference there, though. TZ is getting 75% ozone starts while the Ducks' regular center taking the most beating is Lundestrom...at 35%. Considering he's getting an avg of 20 min a game for the last 5 games,that's a team force feeding a guy literally all the offensive minutes between that and PP.

W the Kings, Byfield is getting 63%, while Kopitar is getting 47%. TOf course Byfield has also averaged under 12 minutes a game, so you can't say he's eating all the O time, and he's getting ZERO PP time.

Point is only if we're here to go OMG LOOK HOW GOOD HE IS should point out he doesn't even have to see the neutral zone never mind the D zone.

People aren't being OMG LOOK HOW GOOD HE IS THOUGH, they are shitting on Stutzle and Zegras. Saying they aren't good pros and are absolute trainwrecks in their own zone. When the advanced stats are painting another story, they are not significant drags on their teams and are producing. Meanwhile our prospects are not producing and are a drag on the possession stats. Maybe Byfield and Turcotte would be producing more if they were getting more prime ozone starts over Danault and Kopi, but at this point we don't know. That doesn't mean we should shit on other teams prospects with absolutely nothing to back it up.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Byfield over Stutzle is still very much up for debate. We can be Jerry Seinfeld cigar nodding about that pick five years from now.

Turcotte over Zegras looks just about decided, though. Even if Turcotte carves out an actual NHL career, which is not a guarantee at all at this point, Zegras is clearly the more talented offensive player, protected or not. If Turcotte could be protected and produce like Zegras, the Kings would be doing that.

Our best line is made up entirely of outside players trades and FAs. How much more of a red flag do you need? Either our vaunted forward prospects aren’t that vaunted, or our front office has clue how to develop them. It’s one or the other.

Uh, no. We've got plenty of evidence that this is not true

(not with respect to turcotte/zegras specifically, just look at prospect deployment/minutes)

I am firmly convinced regardless of his talents that Zegras would not even be on the PP in LA.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

People aren't being OMG LOOK HOW GOOD HE IS THOUGH, they are shitting on Stutzle and Zegras. Saying they aren't good pros and are absolute trainwrecks in their own zone. When the advanced stats are painting another story, they are not significant drags on their teams and are producing. Meanwhile our prospects are not producing and are a drag on the possession stats. Maybe Byfield and Turcotte would be producing more if they were getting more prime ozone starts over Danault and Kopi, but at this point we don't know. That doesn't mean we should shit on other teams prospects with absolutely nothing to back it up.

I'm sorry but you can't make an analysis of a guy's defense when he's spending 75% of his time starting in the other zone. It was the same thing with the Vegas version of Colin Miller, people were like 'wow he's passable defensively' then went elsewhere and got absolutely f***ing axe murdered.

It might not be fair to pass judgment on anecdotes and observations either but when you're spending time shitting on our prospects with no analysis of context you get what you get

 

[SettlementRichie10]

No...not even remotely as simple as that,

Our forward prospects CAN be that Vaunted and STILL not play top line minutes because the organization won't put up with defensive mistakes because they want to make the playoffs,

ANA was under no impression of that....so they really literally, had nothing to lose by letting Zegras out and go here...play...

“B-b-but our guys gotta play defense” is such radioactive Kings fan copium. It isn’t 2012 anymore. And even back then, Lombardi had to scramble for players like Carter and Gaborik to get the team over the hump offensively. With Zegras’s production the Kings are comfortably in a playoff position. Period.

If you can’t even admit the Kings likely missed on that Turcotte pick, just put me on ignore because we’re on two different planets.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

“B-b-but our guys gotta play defense” is such radioactive Kings fan copium. It isn’t 2012 anymore. And even back then, Lombardi had to scramble for players like Carter and Gaborik to get the team over the hump offensively. With Zegras’s production the Kings are comfortably in a playoff position. Period.

If you can’t even admit the Kings likely missed on that Turcotte pick, just put me on ignore because we’re on two different planets.

Are you watching the same organization we are this year?

 

[Axl Rhoadz]

This place is depressing...I hope the Kings start winning again so everyone can take a break from discussing how horribly disgusting this franchise is.

 

[crassbonanza]

I'm sorry but you can't make an analysis of a guy's defense when he's spending 75% of his time starting in the other zone. It was the same thing with the Vegas version of Colin Miller, people were like 'wow he's passable defensively' then went elsewhere and got absolutely f***ing axe murdered.

It might not be fair to pass judgment on anecdotes and observations either but when you're spending time shitting on our prospects with no analysis of context you get what you get

Nobody is shitting on our prospects, but it is fair to say that they are not producing. Maybe it is on the coaching staff, maybe it is on Nelson Emerson, maybe it is Yanetti or maybe it is on Blake. It is concerning that the prospects are not producing and trying to invent false narratives that every other prospect is only producing because our guys are playing the right way does not help the conversation. The difference in possession, on ice scoring, and production can not be just boiled down to a difference of 10% in ozone start rate. It's not like our prospects are being deployed like Lundell, who is carrying a 39% oZS%, while still putting up 41 points in 57 games.

Every single person on this board wants to see our prospects develop, questioning why they aren't producing is not shitting on them.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Nobody is shitting on our prospects, but it is fair to say that they are not producing. Maybe it is on the coaching staff, maybe it is on Nelson Emerson, maybe it is Yanetti or maybe it is on Blake. It is concerning that the prospects are not producing and trying to invent false narratives that every other prospect is only producing because our guys are playing the right way does not help the conversation. The difference in possession, on ice scoring, and production can not be just boiled down to a difference of 10% in ozone start rate. It's not like our prospects are being deployed like Lundell, who is carrying a 39% oZS%, while still putting up 41 points in 57 games.

Every single person on this board wants to see our prospects develop, questioning why they aren't producing is not shitting on them.

That wasn't your point, though. Your initial response was "I don't know if the Kings prospects are given free reign to make mistakes or not, but they are certainly making them as much or more often than either Stutzle or Zegras."

The stats show a miniscule difference in 'mistakes' and a massive difference in game situation deployment to say nothing for team situations (Ducks/Sens playing loose, no pressure vs. Kings playoff race, TZ leading the Ducks in PP time is another example).

Questioning why they aren't producing is a different argument.

Edit: and the things beyond stats--like the benching of Kaliyev amongst many many other things this year--shows us very much that the Kings prospects are NOT given free reign to make mistakes. Stutzle and Zegras are playing on a completely different hockey planet situation-wise.

 

[KINGS17]

Byfield was always the pick. While it was said it would take him longer to develop, it wasn't like he just put up some garbage season in Sudbury but everyone was enamored with his size/speed combo: he put up numbers that had him in pretty rare company for his age. When you've been riding a stud #1C for 15 years with the end of that on the horizon, you are going to take the swing at the potential PPG #1C.

I won't even question the pick if Byfield busts and TS is a routine 50-60 point winger. Now, it will still be Blakes fault because this is a results based business but I'm not going to question the thought process.

I agree. When you have the opportunity to draft a pivot of Byfield's size and skill level, you do it. That being said, there are players who are drafted for all the right reasons who still don't pan out.

 

[KingsFan7824]

This place is depressing...I hope the Kings start winning again so everyone can take a break from discussing how horribly disgusting this franchise is.

I can remember the Purcell and Moulson stuff. Hickey. Everything changes if you win. All sins forgiven. Even if they sold us on a broken down Gagne as an answer for goals, or even if the Kings were still two team altering moves away that they weren't counting on from being a real contender after getting Richards. Or that DL turned to a literal good ol' Canadian farm boy buddy that he never won anything with to save his job. They ended up winning. How you get there doesn't matter if you get there.

All these intricate discussions only matter if you lose. All the wrong or missed picks. Who should be playing where, and exactly how many minutes. Win, and nobody remembers Hickey. Lose, and everyone will remember Turcotte.

 

[crassbonanza]

That wasn't your point, though. Your initial response was "I don't know if the Kings prospects are given free reign to make mistakes or not, but they are certainly making them as much or more often than either Stutzle or Zegras."

The stats show a miniscule difference in 'mistakes' and a massive difference in game situation deployment to say nothing for team situations (Ducks/Sens playing loose, no pressure vs. Kings playoff race, TZ leading the Ducks in PP time is another example).

Questioning why they aren't producing is a different argument.

Edit: and the things beyond stats--like the benching of Kaliyev amongst many many other things this year--shows us very much that the Kings prospects are NOT given free reign to make mistakes. Stutzle and Zegras are playing on a completely different hockey planet situation-wise.

I mean, your whole argument boils down to the difference between a 63% offensive zone faceoff percentage and a 73% offensive zone faceoff percentage. I think we both agree that it is good coaching for a young developing prospect to have that deployment, I think the difference is how much we believe that 10 percent difference plays in possession, production and on-ice scoring. Zegras has a +4.20 GF% Rel, do you believe that he would drop to a negative if he had to drop to 63%? How about his SF% and CF% Rel? As is, none of his numbers are glaringly negative and I'm sure the deployment plays a role, but not nearly as big as you are equating it too.

 

[DoktorJeep]

This place is depressing...I hope the Kings start winning again so everyone can take a break from discussing how horribly disgusting this franchise is.

Buddy, are you sure you have been watching since the 90s? Because outside a 3 year window, this franchise has done absolutely nothing of note and Kings fans have always been down on the team.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I mean, your whole argument boils down to the difference between a 63% offensive zone faceoff percentage and a 73% offensive zone faceoff percentage. I think we both agree that it is good coaching for a young developing prospect to have that deployment, I think the difference is how much we believe that 10 percent difference plays in possession, production and on-ice scoring. Zegras has a +4.20 GF% Rel, do you believe that he would drop to a negative if he had to drop to 63%? How about his SF% and CF% Rel? As is, none of his numbers are glaringly negative and I'm sure the deployment plays a role, but not nearly as big as you are equating it too.

This is as reductive as me saying your entire argument about defensive capability is based upon the shots-for of a guy who doesn't see his defensive zone unless he's going for a change in the 2nd period.

You can't just hand-wave Zegras' minutes away.

Imo you're also looking at it the wrong way.

You're looking at Zegras' numbers relative to a team where there are guys with a 40% difference in deployment. He's good relative to a dogshit team that has few effective NHLers so the guys that are getting buried make him look even better in comparison. Despite that deployment he's STILL giving up more goals than he's scoring, it's just that he's at 42-46 instead of, say, Derek Grant's 25-39. Yes, I believe if he was given more (ANY?) challenging minutes, he'd start to see a falloff. I base that upon watching him a lot more than I should. He has the capability to be much better, but he's gonna experience some growing pains when given more challenging minutes. Then again, the Ducks have smarter coaching and have Grant and Lundestrom actually eating those minutes so who knows.

Byfield is behind a good amount of effective defensive NHLers so relative stats aren't going to flatter him even when playing well, he's looking relatively modest compared to a playoff bubble team so his 11-16 looks rough compared to a 46-36 (Danault). And that's a relatively new development, because until this stretch of games, he was nearer team highs for possession and goal differential, just a small sample size blowing it all up (the Byfield-AA saga). I think given some better deployment in the form of more minutes and PP minutes he'd see an uptick as he got in a rhythm with the puck and within the game. I don't believe he'd get exposed much more than he currently is and he'd also be given additional offensive opportunity. To be fair, that's just the gut speaking, but in his short career so far, the most effective games Byfield has played have seen him with more minutes--for example, the 1/20 Colorado game with 15 minutes had his line leading the forwards with around 70% CF and 1.07xGF (just behind Grundstrom), the 3/22 nashville game (2g, 1a) had him at .97xGF (just behind Kaliyev). Get this man some more playing time and more favorable playing time and watch him bloom a bit more.

 

[Docgonzo]

Doughty done for the season….this season sucks.

 

[kingsfan28]

Byfield over Stutzle is still very much up for debate. We can be Jerry Seinfeld cigar nodding about that pick five years from now.

Turcotte over Zegras looks just about decided, though. Even if Turcotte carves out an actual NHL career, which is not a guarantee at all at this point, Zegras is clearly the more talented offensive player, protected or not. If Turcotte could be protected and produce like Zegras, the Kings would be doing that.

Our best line is made up entirely of outside players trades and FAs. How much more of a red flag do you need? Either our vaunted forward prospects aren’t that vaunted, or our front office has clue how to develop them. It’s one or the other.

I would like an honest answer on what you think the "right way" to develop a player is. Every player does it different, so you can't put it squarely on the team.

 

[kingsfan28]

Doughty done for the season….this season sucks.

I just saw that too. Wrist surgery an he's done.

 

[DoktorJeep]

The Todd Fawtha sounds rattled. Asked which players need to bounce back, his completely generic answer brings up the reverse sweep as the only specific example of getting things on track. Reading it you’d never know he was in charge of the other side.

LAKI

“Right now, there has to be 25 of them, because we have to take the mentality of, if it doesn’t go well, fix it and move on,” McLellan said. “I think, if you go back in history and you look at people in the playoffs talking about it – and the Kings organization knows better than anybody in that reverse sweep – you’ve got to move on. I’ve said it before, we’re in the playoffs right now, so we’ve got to move on. There are things that we need to fix, there are things that are being addressed, lineup shuffles, changes, repair work that needs to be done, we need players to elevate their games. We’ve got to move forward. The answer is, yes, there are some really good guys at doing that, but we’ve all got to learn it.”

 

[Axl Rhoadz]

Buddy, are you sure you have been watching since the 90s? Because outside a 3 year window, this franchise has done absolutely nothing of note and Kings fans have always been down on the team.

Exactly why you should be used to it by now.

 

[DoktorJeep]

Exactly why you should be used to it by now.

Lol, you’re probably right on this one.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

The Todd Fawtha sounds rattled. Asked which players need to bounce back, his completely generic answer brings up the reverse sweep as the only specific example of getting things on track. Reading it you’d never know he was in charge of the other side.

LAKI

on one hand, he's absolutely right--one thing at a time, one game at a time. You can't 'fix' it all at once any more than you can win four games in one night or go back in time and get some points.

On the other, even reading that sounds like a dude with massive stress, holy word salad

 

[Axl Rhoadz]

Doughty done for the season….this season sucks.

Look at the bright side...more ice time for the beloved rookies. Now only if Kopitar would go down,, we could put Byfield up there. THINK POSITIVE.

 

[Herby]

I would like an honest answer on what you think the "right way" to develop a player is. Every player does it different, so you can't put it squarely on the team.

In the case of Turcotte and Byfield maybe the proper way to develop them is to imitate the way other franchises have successfully developed those types of players instead of insisting doing it your way, when your way does not have the same proven results.

The insistence on having high picks play as teenagers in the AHL did damage and slowed boths development, whether you think the evaluations of them as 17 year olds was right or wrong the organization still deserves blame for the development decisions post-draft.