Speculation: LA Kings News, Rumors, Roster Thread 2022-23 Season

[bland]

That has never been reported.

He's just saying things that start arguments...

 

[bland]

be specific as I have no idea what you are trying to argue here. Adding a guy who is a teams leading scorer and giving a team 3 scoring lines is the type of move that deserves accolades. Moving a prospect and a pick to immediately improve the roster is part of rebuilding. But once again- elaborate as to why this is naive.

Certainly.

Fiala is a very good player, sort of a diet star, who has made the Kings a better offensive team now. But "now" isn't really the important part of this conversation. Right now, this season, is rather pointless in the grand scheme of things since this team has far, far too many holes to be a real contender. Progress dictates not just points in the standings but developing a real, true sense of what you have, what you need, and how far away you are from your goals.

I used the word "naive" knowing it has a negative connotation, but its accurate. I understand that fans just want to see their team win games, but is a player like Fiala REALLY making that big a difference? This is a mediocre team with mediocre defense, mediocre goaltending and mediocre coaching.

Adding major offensive talent at a premium cost doesn't help the problems, it masks them. Its a move you make when you have the right pieces in place, you buy the rims after you fix the engine, otherwise you have a fancy ride stalling out at every light. Yeah, you look better but you ain't going anywhere.

Faber is MAJOR capital, its laughable to compare him to a stiff like Fasching. I know that wasn't you, but no need to reply twice here. There is a reason why Faber was the Kings third best prospect coming out of a rebuild, considered one of the top prospects in hockey, a captain, an Olympian - the kid oozes the kind of potential that every single team is looking for at the deadline when hoping to contend: tremendous wheels and reads, sky high hockey IQ and the ability to play massive minutes against the oppositions best every night.

In a playoff series, a Faber just does so much more for you than a Fiala. And Fiala does not have a strong playoff record anyway.

There is a misnomer that the Kings were trading from an area of strength. Sure, they have a bunch of RHDs in the system, but the only shutdown defender left with a reasonable chance is Kirsanov. The RHDs here will all be competing for one, maybe two jobs, all offensively minded.

I really like what Fiala brings, but take a step back and look at the bigger picture. Its just nowhere near as clear cut as the posters here want to think.

 

[mysterman2]

Yes, I wasn’t directing at you…was directing at all the numbnuts who would be complaining about the taxes after winning the lott

Certainly.

Fiala is a very good player, sort of a diet star, who has made the Kings a better offensive team now. But "now" isn't really the important part of this conversation. Right now, this season, is rather pointless in the grand scheme of things since this team has far, far too many holes to be a real contender. Progress dictates not just points in the standings but developing a real, true sense of what you have, what you need, and how far away you are from your goals.

I used the word "naive" knowing it has a negative connotation, but its accurate. I understand that fans just want to see their team win games, but is a player like Fiala REALLY making that big a difference? This is a mediocre team with mediocre defense, mediocre goaltending and mediocre coaching.

Adding major offensive talent at a premium cost doesn't help the problems, it masks them. Its a move you make when you have the right pieces in place, you buy the rims after you fix the engine, otherwise you have a fancy ride stalling out at every light. Yeah, you look better but you ain't going anywhere.

Faber is MAJOR capital, its laughable to compare him to a stiff like Fasching. I know that wasn't you, but no need to reply twice here. There is a reason why Faber was the Kings third best prospect coming out of a rebuild, considered one of the top prospects in hockey, a captain, an Olympian - the kid oozes the kind of potential that every single team is looking for at the deadline when hoping to contend: tremendous wheels and reads, sky high hockey IQ and the ability to play massive minutes against the oppositions best every night.

In a playoff series, a Faber just does so much more for you than a Fiala. And Fiala does not have a strong playoff record anyway.

There is a misnomer that the Kings were trading from an area of strength. Sure, they have a bunch of RHDs in the system, but the only shutdown defender left with a reasonable chance is Kirsanov. The RHDs here will all be competing for one, maybe two jobs, all offensively minded.

I really like what Fiala brings, but take a step back and look at the bigger picture. Its just nowhere near as clear cut as the posters here want to think.

ty for the thoughtful response but Faber is no guarantee. I liked him and still very high on him...much like Spence there are no weakspots to his game. That said- D sucks because half of the D Corp in Edler, Walker and Durzi cant play D- but those are solvable by moving them. Team D was much better with Spence and Bjornoft- not an accident GAA was what it was with them in the lineup.

Faber if im not mistaken now in his Sophomore year- what if he decides to play all four years? Seems he is in control of his destiny and immediate NHL time not important to him which is fine. Once again I am high on Faber and will be a solid player- but the bigger picture means improving the roster and locking up assets.
Apart from the teams looking to tank for a chance at Bedard- there are no teams in the NHL that wouldnt make that deal if given the chance.

 

[Schrute farms]

For Faber's sake, the best thing that ever happened to him on this board is the trade. Because he's been SOOO hyped by some that inevitably he will never reach those lofty standards/expectations and the diatribe would be heavy when that happens.

Look no further to some with GV (until this past month) and Byfield. Heck you can add in others for periods of time like Kempe, AK34, Turc, etc. Lift them up too high and let's enjoy the fall....it's like clockwork.

 

[Cianide]

If all healthy, Walker, Durzi and Clarke are essentially redundant when Doughty plus Roy are in the lineup. Spence, Grans, et. al. don’t even factor into a decision at the nhl level.

Role wise, the team needs a guy who can defend well at 12 mins a night, while providing 30 points of offense. Walker checks those boxes. Management obviously envisions him as Edler’s regular partner.

The issue is that the goaltending has been bad many nights. So, it’s a muddled picture for which D are playing well. Some people like to blame the forwards for not helping out more. But goals are up all around and they are winning the high danger chances for matchups, so the skaters are doing a better job than last season at alleviating the pressure on the goalies to steal games.

I have zero confidence that Cal Petersen is a future legend despite currently being paid like one. But objectively, he and Quick have been equally good and bad this season. So the lack of goaltending is not on one guy.

Consistently coming up short in critical areas that are perceived strengths are a hallmark of a flawed strategy. When multiple perceived strengths fail to repeat and unexpected performances appear out of nowhere, then the strategy was throwing everything at the wall and see what sticks one day at a time.

All the excuse makers who talk about management’s plan never find a way to explain it in one to two sentences that are repeated for more than one year. That’s the problem when the guys leading the franchise have never been a strategy guy. Who would win in a chess match, Lombardi or Blake? Does Blake even know the rules?

Goaltending is bad on most nights? Am I missing something? The games where the kings have given up 5,6 and 7 goals are games where they've let goaltending out to dry. Goals allowed is not on quick or Cal.

 

[kilowatt]

Goaltending is bad on most nights? Am I missing something? The games where the kings have given up 5,6 and 7 goals are games where they've let goaltending out to dry. Goals allowed is not on quick or Cal.

Well, their goals saved above expected would disagree with you.

One way to objectively compare goaltenders is to evaluate their goals saved above expected (GSAx). For every shot, there’s an assigned expected goal (xG) value, and as a goaltender makes or doesn’t make saves based on expected values, the difference between their xG against and their actual goals against will start varying compared to other goaltenders.

With the randomness of goaltending seemingly happening not just season over season but at times even week over week, we can plot every goaltender’s GSAx to see how they stack up compared to the rest of the league. Using data visualisation, comparing goaltenders can be done quickly with a lot of context in each chart.

This chart is a little confusing at first because the Y axis isn't actually a metric here, it's just the team the goaltender is on. Read this graph as left is bad and right is good. Petersen and Quick are both below average on goals saved versus expected, so while a subjective statistic, both have in fact been problematic in net.

Additionally:

Quick's done a fair bit to increase his contributions lately, but Petersen has had a real rough go so far this season. His adjusted GAA, GA%-, and QS% are all very bad.

 

[KingsFan7824]

Since 10/15, the Kings are tied for most GP, with the 5th best pts% record. Good job boys.

 

[King'sPawn]

For Faber's sake, the best thing that ever happened to him on this board is the trade. Because he's been SOOO hyped by some that inevitably he will never reach those lofty standards/expectations and the diatribe would be heavy when that happens.

Look no further to some with GV (until this past month) and Byfield. Heck you can add in others for periods of time like Kempe, AK34, Turc, etc. Lift them up too high and let's enjoy the fall....it's like clockwork.

I forgot people can't be excited for a prospect's growth.

Better trade them all so this board doesn't have any other discussions about career arcs and adjusting expectations.

 

[Cianide]

Well, their goals saved above expected would disagree with you.

This chart is a little confusing at first because the Y axis isn't actually a metric here, it's just the team the goaltender is on. Read this graph as left is bad and right is good. Petersen and Quick are both below average on goals saved versus expected, so while a subjective statistic, both have in fact been problematic in net.

Additionally:

View attachment 606682

Quick's done a fair bit to increase his contributions lately, but Petersen has had a real rough go so far this season. His adjusted GAA, GA%-, and QS% are all very bad.

GSAx speaks more about team defense than goaltending.

 

[kilowatt]

GSAx speaks more about team defense than goaltending.

No it doesn't. It speaks exactly about the saves goaltenders do or do not make. GAA speaks more about team defense than goaltending. A GSAx below zero means that goaltenders are not making the saves they are expected to make. Conversely, a GSAx above zero means that goaltenders are making the saves they are not expected to make. Team defense has nothing to do with it.

 

[Surf Nutz]

The Fiala trade? Minny in a bind, must trade and lets you iron out a long term deal before you make the trade. Leaving nothing to chance. Blake saw how Lombardi got kneecapped on the expiring contracts he picked up.
Kings greatest trades
1. Gretzky
2. Carter
3. Gaborik.
4. Fiala
5. Palffy

 

[Fishhead]

In a playoff series, a Faber just does so much more for you than a Fiala. And Fiala does not have a strong playoff record anyway.

Can we wait until he makes the NHL first? You talk about him like he's a can't-miss prospect, and he's not. Maybe he blows up and becomes a star, great for him and for Minny, he has a shot at becoming that. But maybe he plays a few years then falls off like we've all seen many times before with good prospects.

Just such definitive statements about something that's impossible to gauge at this time.

 

[Axl Rhoadz]

In a playoff series, a Faber just does so much more for you than a Fiala. And Fiala does not have a strong playoff record anyway.

This is the best shit ever and really epitomizes the clown-show that is this message board A LOT of the time. You are comparing a guy who has played 435 NHL games to a prospect who has played 0. Well done, sir.

 

[Statto]

No it doesn't. It speaks exactly about the saves goaltenders do or do not make. GAA speaks more about team defense than goaltending. A GSAx below zero means that goaltenders are not making the saves they are expected to make. Conversely, a GSAx above zero means that goaltenders are making the saves they are not expected to make. Team defense has nothing to do with it.

A general point about stats… it is the area I worked with at a proper pro level, my name isn’t ironic.

I don’t care what the stat is but there isn’t a single one that tells you the whole story about anything around a players impact. Even game played means nothing as the player could have 1 or 50 shifts. Every stat needs context applied and that context needs to be applied by additional stats and supported by subjective information.

The problem with subjective analysis is that every human has confirmation bias which means we focus on the stats that prove our desired or perceived truth. That doesn’t mean subjective input doesn’t have value. Every pro coach I worked with did that, some I could argue with some I couldn’t. One coach had me calling face-off match ups on the fly in play-off games and one ignored pretty much everything I did. The first guy still had his blind spots on certain players, though. We disagreed on plenty of things and I honestly think he sometimes focused too much on the numbers I gave him. He was great to work with though!

I wasn’t doing anything special, I just followed the numbers, but you definitely need lots of those numbers to make it work. My ‘gift‘ (I don’t have time to think of a better word) was that I could analyse about 30 data points in 5 seconds and know which line needed to be on the ice. It wasn’t my hockey expertise. However, I also won’t sit here and say that the data tells the story 100%, far from it. The best coach I worked with balanced the data and the subjective brilliantly and won the whole damn thing with the best side I ever saw in the UK (including all DEL opponents). He looked at the data between games but during them it was always his instinct that he used.

Even the ‘expected’ type stats have a subjective element because someone ultimately decides where the prime shooting areas are, when again the true answer will be different depending on the player. Which is something I tracked based on the coaches own view of where he expected something to be be a goal (I know the modern version isn’t so crude, but it makes my point).

So what I’m trying to say is that we keep dropping into debates about one or two stats to prove an argument but very rarely does that achieve anything. It’s not that simple. I did that stuff for years and I still can’t tell you what the correct balance is. Certain stats support a view but there’s usually other ones that contradict it.

Guys, not really directed at you this is more about a general view on how stats get used in these threads.

Noted: Edited again to fix yet another typo!

 

[lumbergh]

Certainly.

Fiala is a very good player, sort of a diet star, who has made the Kings a better offensive team now. But "now" isn't really the important part of this conversation. Right now, this season, is rather pointless in the grand scheme of things since this team has far, far too many holes to be a real contender. Progress dictates not just points in the standings but developing a real, true sense of what you have, what you need, and how far away you are from your goals.

I used the word "naive" knowing it has a negative connotation, but its accurate. I understand that fans just want to see their team win games, but is a player like Fiala REALLY making that big a difference? This is a mediocre team with mediocre defense, mediocre goaltending and mediocre coaching.

Adding major offensive talent at a premium cost doesn't help the problems, it masks them. Its a move you make when you have the right pieces in place, you buy the rims after you fix the engine, otherwise you have a fancy ride stalling out at every light. Yeah, you look better but you ain't going anywhere.

Faber is MAJOR capital, its laughable to compare him to a stiff like Fasching. I know that wasn't you, but no need to reply twice here. There is a reason why Faber was the Kings third best prospect coming out of a rebuild, considered one of the top prospects in hockey, a captain, an Olympian - the kid oozes the kind of potential that every single team is looking for at the deadline when hoping to contend: tremendous wheels and reads, sky high hockey IQ and the ability to play massive minutes against the oppositions best every night.

In a playoff series, a Faber just does so much more for you than a Fiala. And Fiala does not have a strong playoff record anyway.

There is a misnomer that the Kings were trading from an area of strength. Sure, they have a bunch of RHDs in the system, but the only shutdown defender left with a reasonable chance is Kirsanov. The RHDs here will all be competing for one, maybe two jobs, all offensively minded.

I really like what Fiala brings, but take a step back and look at the bigger picture. Its just nowhere near as clear cut as the posters here want to think.

If Minny is lucky Faber tops out as a Ryan Suter type top pairing D, but to me he projects to a mid pairing minute muncher Or stay at home defenseman who can skate well. The offensive skills and instincts to be a top pairing D haven’t really shown up for Faber. You might be overvaluing a prospect here.

I‘ll go on the record and say that the Kings window to contend is already open. Yeah there are holes, but that’s what the trade deadline is for. The Fiala trade is not only opportunistic, but makes a lot of sense given where the Kings stand.

 

[Schmooley]

I‘ll go on the record and say that the Kings window to contend is already open.

I would disagree with this but after watching games this year there isnt a team that stands out as head and shoulders in a different league than the Kings. They can take anyone on this year if they play well and get solid goaltending.
What people are saying when they nitpick things like development and the Fiala trade is they are skeptical if LA is building a contender that will last years.

 

[Schrute farms]

I forgot people can't be excited for a prospect's growth.

Better trade them all so this board doesn't have any other discussions about career arcs and adjusting expectations.

I hope you can see the irony in your post.
If not, at least it gave me a chuckle this am.

 

[johnjm22]

No it doesn't. It speaks exactly about the saves goaltenders do or do not make. GAA speaks more about team defense than goaltending. A GSAx below zero means that goaltenders are not making the saves they are expected to make. Conversely, a GSAx above zero means that goaltenders are making the saves they are not expected to make. Team defense has nothing to do with it.

You are technically correct of course.

However, goaltenders are human. And I believe even their GSAx will be affected by team defense eventually.

 

[King'sPawn]

I hope you can see the irony in your post.
If not, at least it gave me a chuckle this am.

I'm glad it did. So many prospects' careers were derailed by expectations on message boards.

 

[Statto]

You are technically correct of course.

However, goaltenders are human. And I believe even their GSAx will be affected by team defense eventually.

Of course it does. Each goaltender has different strengths and weaknesses. It should to some degree influence how aggressively certain parts of the ice are defended and which area offensive players are driven to. Also, if they catch left or right.

The style of a goaltender will also affect what you would consider to be high risk shots - I’ve not researched if that’s included in the algorithm. I‘m also not sure if a shot that hits the goalie square in the chest is factored in. Do they consider the execution of the shot or just where it is taken from? It’s quite a nuanced thing… sorry I’m thinking this through as I’m typing. I’m trying to think of all the factors I’d want to build into the stat to make it ‘perfect’ the problem is some of the potential measures like shot quality are pretty subjective. This is why you have to factor in things like the eye test when evaluating because some of the advanced stats whilst complex often use imperfect (non factual) inputs.

This is why sample size is so important because it smooths out the imperfections and valid trends develop.

I’ll shut up now.

 

[Schrute farms]

I'm glad it did. So many prospects' careers were derailed by expectations on message boards.

That's why i said "on this board" -- meaning in our little world here and amongst us. Maybe that wasn't clear -- if so, my bad.

What we say or do has absolutely zero impact whatsoever on the players and games. It's like when fans think they jinx or have some lucky thing for their team. Us fans do not have any such power. If someone actually did, then you are seriously wasting your talents/power

 

[King'sPawn]

That's why i said "on this board" -- meaning in our little world here and amongst us. Maybe that wasn't clear -- if so, my bad.

What we say or do has absolutely zero impact whatsoever on the players and games. It's like when fans think they jinx or have some lucky thing for their team. Us fans do not have any such power. If someone actually did, then you are seriously wasting your talents/power

Well... Vilardi can SAY his exercises led to his back recovery...

In all seriousness, sorry if I'm snippy and defensive. I just love talking about prospects and watching them grow, and watching them overcome hurdles. I get pissy when something I'm passionate about is treated like I haven't learned how to adjust my expectations with more observations and data... especially since there is a sub-group who loves to suppress certain talking points.

So, maybe I projected. For that I'm sorry.

I DO think there's a lot to get excited about with Faber. And I was legitimately bummed when he was traded. But I should just get thicker skin and know not everyone has the same interests of different aspects of the org as me. I've clearly yet to reconcile that.

Anyway, I appreciate your posts. Good luck and don't mind me.

 

[All The Kings Men]

This is why sample size is so important because it smooths out the imperfections and valid trends develop.

I’ll shut up now.

I don't think this can be repeated enough.

EVERY stats person I have spoken to harps on sample size sample size sample size

expected goals, corsi etc are meant to be looked at over three YEARS and yet every game I see the tweet with the ingame score measuring xGF% and hear people repeating those numbers as if they're definitive representations of player value.

 

[Axl Rhoadz]

Mayor hinted that Clarke may get conditioning assignment with Reign. I thought it’s not possible for him to go to the AHL in any shape or form…

 

[Statto]

I don't think this can be repeated enough.

EVERY stats person I have spoken to harps on sample size sample size sample size

expected goals, corsi etc are meant to be looked at over three YEARS and yet every game I see the tweet with the ingame score measuring xGF% and hear people repeating those numbers as if they're definitive representations of player value.

I note that you included the bit about me shutting up in the quote you selected