bland
Registered User
- Jul 1, 2004
- 7,948
- 12,167
He's just saying things that start arguments...That has never been reported.
He's just saying things that start arguments...That has never been reported.
Certainly.be specific as I have no idea what you are trying to argue here. Adding a guy who is a teams leading scorer and giving a team 3 scoring lines is the type of move that deserves accolades. Moving a prospect and a pick to immediately improve the roster is part of rebuilding. But once again- elaborate as to why this is naive.
Yes, I wasn’t directing at you…was directing at all the numbnuts who would be complaining about the taxes after winning the lott
Certainly.
Fiala is a very good player, sort of a diet star, who has made the Kings a better offensive team now. But "now" isn't really the important part of this conversation. Right now, this season, is rather pointless in the grand scheme of things since this team has far, far too many holes to be a real contender. Progress dictates not just points in the standings but developing a real, true sense of what you have, what you need, and how far away you are from your goals.
I used the word "naive" knowing it has a negative connotation, but its accurate. I understand that fans just want to see their team win games, but is a player like Fiala REALLY making that big a difference? This is a mediocre team with mediocre defense, mediocre goaltending and mediocre coaching.
Adding major offensive talent at a premium cost doesn't help the problems, it masks them. Its a move you make when you have the right pieces in place, you buy the rims after you fix the engine, otherwise you have a fancy ride stalling out at every light. Yeah, you look better but you ain't going anywhere.
Faber is MAJOR capital, its laughable to compare him to a stiff like Fasching. I know that wasn't you, but no need to reply twice here. There is a reason why Faber was the Kings third best prospect coming out of a rebuild, considered one of the top prospects in hockey, a captain, an Olympian - the kid oozes the kind of potential that every single team is looking for at the deadline when hoping to contend: tremendous wheels and reads, sky high hockey IQ and the ability to play massive minutes against the oppositions best every night.
In a playoff series, a Faber just does so much more for you than a Fiala. And Fiala does not have a strong playoff record anyway.
There is a misnomer that the Kings were trading from an area of strength. Sure, they have a bunch of RHDs in the system, but the only shutdown defender left with a reasonable chance is Kirsanov. The RHDs here will all be competing for one, maybe two jobs, all offensively minded.
I really like what Fiala brings, but take a step back and look at the bigger picture. Its just nowhere near as clear cut as the posters here want to think.
Goaltending is bad on most nights? Am I missing something? The games where the kings have given up 5,6 and 7 goals are games where they've let goaltending out to dry. Goals allowed is not on quick or Cal.If all healthy, Walker, Durzi and Clarke are essentially redundant when Doughty plus Roy are in the lineup. Spence, Grans, et. al. don’t even factor into a decision at the nhl level.
Role wise, the team needs a guy who can defend well at 12 mins a night, while providing 30 points of offense. Walker checks those boxes. Management obviously envisions him as Edler’s regular partner.
The issue is that the goaltending has been bad many nights. So, it’s a muddled picture for which D are playing well. Some people like to blame the forwards for not helping out more. But goals are up all around and they are winning the high danger chances for matchups, so the skaters are doing a better job than last season at alleviating the pressure on the goalies to steal games.
I have zero confidence that Cal Petersen is a future legend despite currently being paid like one. But objectively, he and Quick have been equally good and bad this season. So the lack of goaltending is not on one guy.
Consistently coming up short in critical areas that are perceived strengths are a hallmark of a flawed strategy. When multiple perceived strengths fail to repeat and unexpected performances appear out of nowhere, then the strategy was throwing everything at the wall and see what sticks one day at a time.
All the excuse makers who talk about management’s plan never find a way to explain it in one to two sentences that are repeated for more than one year. That’s the problem when the guys leading the franchise have never been a strategy guy. Who would win in a chess match, Lombardi or Blake? Does Blake even know the rules?
Goaltending is bad on most nights? Am I missing something? The games where the kings have given up 5,6 and 7 goals are games where they've let goaltending out to dry. Goals allowed is not on quick or Cal.
One way to objectively compare goaltenders is to evaluate their goals saved above expected (GSAx). For every shot, there’s an assigned expected goal (xG) value, and as a goaltender makes or doesn’t make saves based on expected values, the difference between their xG against and their actual goals against will start varying compared to other goaltenders.
With the randomness of goaltending seemingly happening not just season over season but at times even week over week, we can plot every goaltender’s GSAx to see how they stack up compared to the rest of the league. Using data visualisation, comparing goaltenders can be done quickly with a lot of context in each chart.
I forgot people can't be excited for a prospect's growth.For Faber's sake, the best thing that ever happened to him on this board is the trade. Because he's been SOOO hyped by some that inevitably he will never reach those lofty standards/expectations and the diatribe would be heavy when that happens.
Look no further to some with GV (until this past month) and Byfield. Heck you can add in others for periods of time like Kempe, AK34, Turc, etc. Lift them up too high and let's enjoy the fall....it's like clockwork.
GSAx speaks more about team defense than goaltending.Well, their goals saved above expected would disagree with you.
This chart is a little confusing at first because the Y axis isn't actually a metric here, it's just the team the goaltender is on. Read this graph as left is bad and right is good. Petersen and Quick are both below average on goals saved versus expected, so while a subjective statistic, both have in fact been problematic in net.
Additionally:
View attachment 606682
Quick's done a fair bit to increase his contributions lately, but Petersen has had a real rough go so far this season. His adjusted GAA, GA%-, and QS% are all very bad.
No it doesn't. It speaks exactly about the saves goaltenders do or do not make. GAA speaks more about team defense than goaltending. A GSAx below zero means that goaltenders are not making the saves they are expected to make. Conversely, a GSAx above zero means that goaltenders are making the saves they are not expected to make. Team defense has nothing to do with it.GSAx speaks more about team defense than goaltending.
In a playoff series, a Faber just does so much more for you than a Fiala. And Fiala does not have a strong playoff record anyway.
This is the best shit ever and really epitomizes the clown-show that is this message board A LOT of the time. You are comparing a guy who has played 435 NHL games to a prospect who has played 0. Well done, sir.In a playoff series, a Faber just does so much more for you than a Fiala. And Fiala does not have a strong playoff record anyway.
A general point about stats… it is the area I worked with at a proper pro level, my name isn’t ironic.No it doesn't. It speaks exactly about the saves goaltenders do or do not make. GAA speaks more about team defense than goaltending. A GSAx below zero means that goaltenders are not making the saves they are expected to make. Conversely, a GSAx above zero means that goaltenders are making the saves they are not expected to make. Team defense has nothing to do with it.
If Minny is lucky Faber tops out as a Ryan Suter type top pairing D, but to me he projects to a mid pairing minute muncher Or stay at home defenseman who can skate well. The offensive skills and instincts to be a top pairing D haven’t really shown up for Faber. You might be overvaluing a prospect here.Certainly.
Fiala is a very good player, sort of a diet star, who has made the Kings a better offensive team now. But "now" isn't really the important part of this conversation. Right now, this season, is rather pointless in the grand scheme of things since this team has far, far too many holes to be a real contender. Progress dictates not just points in the standings but developing a real, true sense of what you have, what you need, and how far away you are from your goals.
I used the word "naive" knowing it has a negative connotation, but its accurate. I understand that fans just want to see their team win games, but is a player like Fiala REALLY making that big a difference? This is a mediocre team with mediocre defense, mediocre goaltending and mediocre coaching.
Adding major offensive talent at a premium cost doesn't help the problems, it masks them. Its a move you make when you have the right pieces in place, you buy the rims after you fix the engine, otherwise you have a fancy ride stalling out at every light. Yeah, you look better but you ain't going anywhere.
Faber is MAJOR capital, its laughable to compare him to a stiff like Fasching. I know that wasn't you, but no need to reply twice here. There is a reason why Faber was the Kings third best prospect coming out of a rebuild, considered one of the top prospects in hockey, a captain, an Olympian - the kid oozes the kind of potential that every single team is looking for at the deadline when hoping to contend: tremendous wheels and reads, sky high hockey IQ and the ability to play massive minutes against the oppositions best every night.
In a playoff series, a Faber just does so much more for you than a Fiala. And Fiala does not have a strong playoff record anyway.
There is a misnomer that the Kings were trading from an area of strength. Sure, they have a bunch of RHDs in the system, but the only shutdown defender left with a reasonable chance is Kirsanov. The RHDs here will all be competing for one, maybe two jobs, all offensively minded.
I really like what Fiala brings, but take a step back and look at the bigger picture. Its just nowhere near as clear cut as the posters here want to think.
I would disagree with this but after watching games this year there isnt a team that stands out as head and shoulders in a different league than the Kings. They can take anyone on this year if they play well and get solid goaltending.I‘ll go on the record and say that the Kings window to contend is already open.
I hope you can see the irony in your post.I forgot people can't be excited for a prospect's growth.
Better trade them all so this board doesn't have any other discussions about career arcs and adjusting expectations.
You are technically correct of course.No it doesn't. It speaks exactly about the saves goaltenders do or do not make. GAA speaks more about team defense than goaltending. A GSAx below zero means that goaltenders are not making the saves they are expected to make. Conversely, a GSAx above zero means that goaltenders are making the saves they are not expected to make. Team defense has nothing to do with it.
I'm glad it did. So many prospects' careers were derailed by expectations on message boards.I hope you can see the irony in your post.
If not, at least it gave me a chuckle this am.
Of course it does. Each goaltender has different strengths and weaknesses. It should to some degree influence how aggressively certain parts of the ice are defended and which area offensive players are driven to. Also, if they catch left or right.You are technically correct of course.
However, goaltenders are human. And I believe even their GSAx will be affected by team defense eventually.
That's why i said "on this board" -- meaning in our little world here and amongst us. Maybe that wasn't clear -- if so, my bad.I'm glad it did. So many prospects' careers were derailed by expectations on message boards.
Well... Vilardi can SAY his exercises led to his back recovery...That's why i said "on this board" -- meaning in our little world here and amongst us. Maybe that wasn't clear -- if so, my bad.
What we say or do has absolutely zero impact whatsoever on the players and games. It's like when fans think they jinx or have some lucky thing for their team. Us fans do not have any such power. If someone actually did, then you are seriously wasting your talents/power
I don't think this can be repeated enough.This is why sample size is so important because it smooths out the imperfections and valid trends develop.
I’ll shut up now.
I note that you included the bit about me shutting up in the quote you selectedI don't think this can be repeated enough.
EVERY stats person I have spoken to harps on sample size sample size sample size
expected goals, corsi etc are meant to be looked at over three YEARS and yet every game I see the tweet with the ingame score measuring xGF% and hear people repeating those numbers as if they're definitive representations of player value.