Speculation: LA Kings News, Rumors, Roster Thread 2022-23 Season

[KINGS17]

And I think you are 100/100 in the wrong here.

Its a line of thinking that is based on an EXTREMELY narrow understanding of value and a very, very common fallacious belief that more offense means better hockey. It just isn't the case. Never has been, never will be, yet a LOT of well meaning make that mistake.

More exciting? Absolutely. Better? Definitely not now and most likely not in the future.

Offensive wingers are the absolute easiest thing in the league to draft, develop and acquire. You can get them any year you want. They also lose their value faster than players of any other position. For as much as we marvel Fiala's ability , there are over 30 guys out there this year doing better, and a dozen or so around the same.

Fiala is 26 years old. If the Kings are not contending within the next four seasons, what was the purpose of the deal?

 

[All The Kings Men]

what was the purpose of the deal?

RAZZAMATAZZ!!!!

 

[FSL KINGS]

Good week to catch up on the hockey board. No distracting game day threads.

It looks like there are too many holes & the costs are too high to justify addressing all of them in season. Absolutely not comfortable with trading a high pick with Pheonix as the number 1 & Quick not being able to squeak out a win. Pheonix comes back to earth & the team is in trouble.

Outside of a long shot like Vilardi, 1st, Cal for a starting goalie, LD & a center, can't see anything of note happening at the deadline. Blake is probably willing to make a franchise altering trade right now. What GM is crazy enough to join him?

 

[Surf Nutz]

Good week to catch up on the hockey board. No distracting game day threads.

It looks like there are too many holes & the costs are too high to justify addressing all of them in season. Absolutely not comfortable with trading a high pick with Pheonix as the number 1 & Quick not being able to squeak out a win. Pheonix comes back to earth & the team is in trouble.

Outside of a long shot like Vilardi, 1st, Cal for a starting goalie, LD & a center, can't see anything of note happening at the deadline. Blake is probably willing to make a franchise altering trade right now. What GM is crazy enough to join him?

Blake is from the Lombardi school.
Most of the heavy lifting is done during the off season.

Fiala trade and signing only looking better after Cozens and Horvat and whoever comes next.

 

[Fishhead]

Just because it hasn't happened yet doesn't mean it's not worth talking about. I mean hell this last offseason several people were giving others of us shit for worrying about LHD and goaltending and...you know the rest.

This coming offseason's waiver eligible players:
JAD
Lias
Grundstrom

Moverare
Bjornfot
Fagemo
Kupari
Madden
Thomas

Then Turcotte Byfield Spence the following offseason.

If you're another team, you're probably getting Fagemo, Kupari, Madden, Thomas for picks rounds lower than we got them for if you're not picking them up on waivers, simply because the Kings couldn't find opportunity. JAD or Lizotte, same.

Some of these guys we won't shed tears for, but the clock is ticking on asset management. Depreciation is still a thing.

Yeah, this is my main beef with how things are handled. It's fine to sit on prospects for a while, but overwaiting will cost you when it comes time to move them.

Although to be perfectly fair, guys like Fagemo, Madden, and Thomas are going to go for picks lower than we got them before because they aren't good enough for the NHL. Just like we got Lias for. They are just tweeners who may put it together eventually.

That's not an indictment of the drafting, either. Is it worth spending a pick in the 2nd on Fagemo who has some intriguing tools? Knowing if he doesn't pan out he'll get you a 3rd or 4th back? Absolutely. If they lose Bjornfot, JAD, or Kupari for low value, I would be upset - but the rest of them aren't a big deal, although I'm bummed Grundy regressed when he really was putting it together.

I know the Kings have had a high-ranking pool, but that doesn't mean it's particularly good. It just means they have been better with picks than other teams, which I agree with. As a whole, I've been unimpressed with a lot of the recent draft classes. Players not being able to crack rosters isn't just a Kings phenomenon, it's league-wide. We haven't seen a really good draft class since 2016, which is why '23 picks are at a premium. It's great the Kings have had a top-5 prospect pool, but when it's in a crappy draft period it doesn't help all that much.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Yeah, this is my main beef with how things are handled. It's fine to sit on prospects for a while, but overwaiting will cost you when it comes time to move them.

Although to be perfectly fair, guys like Fagemo, Madden, and Thomas are going to go for picks lower than we got them before because they aren't good enough for the NHL. Just like we got Lias for. They are just tweeners who may put it together eventually.

That's not an indictment of the drafting, either. Is it worth spending a pick in the 2nd on Fagemo who has some intriguing tools? Knowing if he doesn't pan out he'll get you a 3rd or 4th back? Absolutely. If they lose Bjornfot, JAD, or Kupari for low value, I would be upset - but the rest of them aren't a big deal, although I'm bummed Grundy regressed when he really was putting it together.

I know the Kings have had a high-ranking pool, but that doesn't mean it's particularly good. It just means they have been better with picks than other teams, which I agree with. As a whole, I've been unimpressed with a lot of the recent draft classes. Players not being able to crack rosters isn't just a Kings phenomenon, it's league-wide. We haven't seen a really good draft class since 2016, which is why '23 picks are at a premium. It's great the Kings have had a top-5 prospect pool, but when it's in a crappy draft period it doesn't help all that much.

At some point, it IS though.
Turcotte, Kupari, Bjornfot all 1st round picks
Fagemo, Thomas, JAD all 2nd round picks

If they're all not good enough, that's a drafting problem.
If they're all blocked and wasting away, depreciating until waivers hit, that's a management problem.
Especially when lots of those guys are sitting at positions of strength when we could use them to bolster LHD, G.

I don't expect a 100% hit rate or anything, but pissing it all away just because you can doesn't make you a genius.

 

[kingsfan28]

RAZZAMATAZZ!!!!

I believe this a first for that word on this board.

 

[Telos]

If you guys need a refresher on Kings history and how 2012 went down, this just dropped tonight.

"We didn't have anybody thinking we were going to win outside of that room (their own locker room)." -Dustin Brown

 

[All The Kings Men]

If you guys need a refresher on Kings history and how 2012 went down, this just dropped tonight.

"We didn't have anybody thinking we were going to win outside of that room (their own locker room)." -Dustin Brown

and if you're more into listening and want some additional sound bites from those conversations...

 

[Fishhead]

At some point, it IS though.
Turcotte, Kupari, Bjornfot all 1st round picks
Fagemo, Thomas, JAD all 2nd round picks

If they're all not good enough, that's a drafting problem.
If they're all blocked and wasting away, depreciating until waivers hit, that's a management problem.
Especially when lots of those guys are sitting at positions of strength when we could use them to bolster LHD, G.

I don't expect a 100% hit rate or anything, but pissing it all away just because you can doesn't make you a genius.

Yeah, you don't want to be wasteful. If Toby didn't get injured and finish last season like shit, I'm wondering if Edler is even brought back. Maybe, maybe not. I think Toby and Spence are the only ones currently blocked, really.

And I'm not defending the Kings here, I do feel that Spence is blocked, as were both Byfield and Vilardi. But the latter two pretty much have forced their way in, grabbing spots. Personally, I only consider a player blocked if he's better than the guy he's replacing. The guys who were blocking roster spots were Grundstrom and Lemieux, even though they are grinders. Without them we can run 3 scoring lines and a 4th.

I do think a lot of this is overblown. I think eventually the prospects who will have panned out are Byfield, Kaliyev, Vilardi, Anderson, Bjornfot, Spence, and I think both Kupari and JAD stick around for various roles. Turcotte is a wildcard at this point. That's a pretty good group.

 

[Steve Zissou]

::Tear::

 

[Statto]

At some point, it IS though.
Turcotte, Kupari, Bjornfot all 1st round picks
Fagemo, Thomas, JAD all 2nd round picks

If they're all not good enough, that's a drafting problem.
If they're all blocked and wasting away, depreciating until waivers hit, that's a management problem.
Especially when lots of those guys are sitting at positions of strength when we could use them to bolster LHD, G.

I don't expect a 100% hit rate or anything, but pissing it all away just because you can doesn't make you a genius.

Thomas has basically lost 2 seasons to injury. When he’s been fully game fit he’s looked good and I expect he gets a multi year deal to ward off a waiver claim. I’ve certainly not given up on him becoming a decent bottom 6 guy. I don’t deny that he’s up against it but he’s not someone to bet against. Until his latest injury I thought he was trending to get a look around this time of the season. It’s a shame as I see him as a locker room culture defining guy.

 

[lumbergh]

Just because it hasn't happened yet doesn't mean it's not worth talking about. I mean hell this last offseason several people were giving others of us shit for worrying about LHD and goaltending and...you know the rest.

This coming offseason's waiver eligible players:
JAD
Lias
Grundstrom

Moverare
Bjornfot
Fagemo
Kupari
Madden
Thomas

Then Turcotte Byfield Spence the following offseason.

If you're another team, you're probably getting Fagemo, Kupari, Madden, Thomas for picks rounds lower than we got them for if you're not picking them up on waivers, simply because the Kings couldn't find opportunity. JAD or Lizotte, same.

Some of these guys we won't shed tears for, but the clock is ticking on asset management. Depreciation is still a thing.

I doubt Blake will be trading these players for picks, but even if he does, that's not the core of the plan. You're still focused on prospect development and prospect value. I mean I get it. This board used to be "Hockey's Future". Everyone wants to see our prospects developing into all-stars. They are simply not all going to do that.

All I'm trying to tell you is that Blake's plan, as I see it, is not primarily focused on prospect development and retaining prospect value. He's building the Kings using prospects and picks, but he's using most of them as assets to construct the big league team, not just so they can play on the Kings in the future. The development system is there and Blake has filled it to the brim. Since 2021 you have seen him start to use some the capital he has amassed in the Arvidsson and Fiala trades.

Sure there are some keepers (Byfield and maybe Spence), but almost everyone on your list can be viewed as possible trade bait at this point. Maybe a couple of the prospects get moved in a trade for a LHD in the next three weeks. That wouldn't surprise me at all. Maybe Madden or Turcotte go in a package for Jake McCabe. Or maybe Lias Andersson gets you an Olli Maatta back. Who knows. There's still a ton of value in that list, and it's time for Blake to use it. Use it or lose it.

The goaltending, well, that plan got blown up by Cal Petersen. No idea where that's going.

 

[Schrute farms]

You guys are missing the brilliance and chess play at work here by Blake. He's been slowly killing the prospects values to avoid these big early contracts and eventually sign them to low salaried contracts after their rookie deal ends. Thereby allowing him to sign Austin Matthews as a FA in the summer 2024. Then we'll win three Cups in a row and you guys will forever compare all future GMs to the great Rob Blake. wink

 

[KingsFan7824]

In the grand scheme of things, adding $4.125 mid-season versus committing $8.5 mid-season, when most of the money/cap hit is a concern AFTER the midseason obstacle, is picking nits just for the sake of arguing.

If Kopitar was traded midseason, a team would have to worry about $5 million for the rest of the season he was acquired.

Is that a huge issue compared to acquiring a $4.125 million player midseason?

Edit: and what's the difference between trading for a soon-to-be UFA and extending him yourself for a term versus trading for a player who already has the term you're aware of?

No, it's not nitpicking. They didn't acquire Horvat at $8.5m mid-season. That's in their budget for next year, not this one.

Same as SJ didn't trade the #3 pick for Karlsson. It's an important detail. They traded a 1st, and left it unprotected. If SJ knew they had the #3 pick, they wouldn't have made the same trade.

Do you see a lot of players with huge deals traded during the season? No, because it changes the nature of the deal, especially when talking about retention. The crappy team with a UFA can retain however much they have to, because they're on the hook for just a couple weeks. If a guy has 5 years left, very few teams are retaining too much for that long.

Horvat will be 28 when his new contract kicks in. Kopitar turned 28 before the 15-16 season. Over the last few years, he's been in his early to mid 30's, with a $10m hit, and we've done a lot of worrying about how he's slowed down. Not the same as Horvat having a career year in his UFA year.

I’m not going to argue whether Kopitar should or should not have been traded in 2016 or 2018 or 2020 or next weekend. These arguments have been beaten to death. We all agree that we don’t agree when - if ever - there was the ideal time to move Kopitar.

My original point was that you cannot on one hand absolve Blake of “inheriting an aging core” and on the other hand applaud him for holding on to players like Kopitar and Doughty. Either Kopitar and Doughty were great players that Blake was right to hold on to, or they were an albatross he inherited from Lombardi. You (not you in particular, but certain posters) can’t have it both ways.

The entire narrative surrounding Blake has been poisoned recently by the outright lie that he came aboard with the intention to rebuild. Some of us have provided direct quotes to the contrary and there is a contingent of posters refusing to acknowledge it. This is why old narratives like trading/keeping Kopitar are being brought up again.

Clearly there was no intention of rebuilding. Certainly not in a fire sale way. Had they not been atrocious in Oct and Nov 2018, they would've just kept trying to be competitive. They even tried waking the team up by trading Pearson for Hagelin, because they didn't want to rebuild.

Even the dumbest management group wouldn't willingly start rebuilding in the early to mid stages of two giant contracts to guys around 30. SJ wasn't planning on doing it either. And no matter how great Karlsson is right now, he's quite likely to finish not only this season as a Shark, but the next couple years too.

 

[Fishhead]

I think a lot of us look back at what DL did and don't fully realize that it was lightning in a bottle. Rarely do teams draft a HOF level C, D, and G in short order. This iteration of the team is going to be much different.

The Kings didn't have the draft positions they needed to draft a bunch of prospects who were ready to be thrown in the fire. I think they've done quite well based on their draft slots, not to mention that recent drafts have been on the crappy side. The last really good draft was 2016, and teams that have drafted high since then haven't gotten the quality teams in the early 2010's got.

A good amount of prospects could have been handled better, but this was never going to be a team where you dump all the vets and exclusively play the youth. We'll never know how that may have turned out, but with the level of player we've seen in recent drafts in similar slots it likely would have been a road to nowhere.

 

[King'sPawn]

No, it's not nitpicking. They didn't acquire Horvat at $8.5m mid-season. That's in their budget for next year, not this one.

Same as SJ didn't trade the #3 pick for Karlsson. It's an important detail. They traded a 1st, and left it unprotected. If SJ knew they had the #3 pick, they wouldn't have made the same trade.

Do you see a lot of players with huge deals traded during the season? No, because it changes the nature of the deal, especially when talking about retention. The crappy team with a UFA can retain however much they have to, because they're on the hook for just a couple weeks. If a guy has 5 years left, very few teams are retaining too much for that long.

Horvat will be 28 when his new contract kicks in. Kopitar turned 28 before the 15-16 season. Over the last few years, he's been in his early to mid 30's, with a $10m hit, and we've done a lot of worrying about how he's slowed down. Not the same as Horvat having a career year in his UFA year.

Just because the trade occurred during this season doesn't mean the trade was about this season.

If the Islanders traded for Horvat during the offseason, the only difference may be the pieces that went the other way. Not the contract they committed to him after the trade.

So yes, you're nitpicking SR's point, which was about how Kopitar's contract is now being pushed as a boat anchor that no GM would want to touch.

 

[King'sPawn]

I doubt Blake will be trading these players for picks, but even if he does, that's not the core of the plan. You're still focused on prospect development and prospect value. I mean I get it. This board used to be "Hockey's Future". Everyone wants to see our prospects developing into all-stars. They are simply not all going to do that.

All I'm trying to tell you is that Blake's plan, as I see it, is not primarily focused on prospect development and retaining prospect value. He's building the Kings using prospects and picks, but he's using most of them as assets to construct the big league team, not just so they can play on the Kings in the future.

I just don't think facts align with this.

If Blake's plan isn't focused on prospect development and retaining value, why has he tried to bring in:
Alex Turcotte
Samuel Helenius
Quinton Byfield
Rasmus Kupari
Brock Faber (before they traded him)

In to play in the AHL as soon as they were 19 years old or younger? Why not just let them play in their respective leagues and marinate? Why not send Brandt Clarke down to the OHL right away, instead of using a conditioning stint as an excuse to get him time in the AHL.

I'd expect a GM not interested in developing players to be hands free and let them do their thing in lower leagues. Not try to bring them in to the AHL ASAP so they can control the instruction.

 

[Faterson]

::Tear::

I wish someone would caption this for every person left to right, top & bottom row. Just unable to identify everyone.

 

[Fishhead]

I just don't think facts align with this.

If Blake's plan isn't focused on prospect development and retaining value, why has he tried to bring in:
Alex Turcotte
Samuel Helenius
Quinton Byfield
Rasmus Kupari
Brock Faber (before they traded him)

In to play in the AHL as soon as they were 19 years old or younger? Why not just let them play in their respective leagues and marinate? Why not send Brandt Clarke down to the OHL right away, instead of using a conditioning stint as an excuse to get him time in the AHL.

I'd expect a GM not interested in developing players to be hands free and let them do their thing in lower leagues. Not try to bring them in to the AHL ASAP so they can control the instruction.

That was certainly out of the ordinary, but remember the rules were different for COVID.

It was obvious why Byfield was there, he had nowhere else to go as the OHL was shut down.

Kupari and Helenius were overseas, the AHL is a much better developmental environment for players trying to make the NHL. You could argue that one either way, but bringing guys over as soon as they want to is pretty standard.

Faber was offered a NHL spot, wasn't he? The specifics are hazy but I don't remember them trying to get him in the AHL, but I could easily be wrong.

Turcotte, yes. But he did leave Wisconsin to go pro after they terminated the NCAA season due to the pandemic. It was the wrong choice obviously, but no one knew if there was even going to be a season for the NCAA. Turns out they started earlier than the AHL, but it was just guesswork at that point.

So the facts don't necessarily align, but there were a lot of extenuating circumstances there. It's difficult to say how things would have played out without the pandemic. I think odds are high that Turcotte stays in college, and I certainly think Byfield goes back to juniors based on what they've done with Clarke.

 

[bland]

And yet Fiala is the first player we've had who has been able to measure up to Palffy, if they were really so easy to acquire surely it wouldn't have taken so long to get a player as good as him and every team would have multiple PPG wingers who can take control of games. Meanwhile since Palffy we've had numerous players like Faber come and go.

Do you want to win or just watch exciting hockey?

They aren't the same thing. And you must not be remembering the impact made by Carter and Gaborik on teams that had their structure in place and acquired the right players at the right time to maximize their value AND that of the team.

The manner in which Fiala most resembles Palffy isn't on ice, it is in the acquisition. A terrific player added at a significant cost without fitting into a plan. Activity for sexy activity's sake. Fans pop at his skill, team goes nowhere because management is grasping at straws.

 

[kings11]

Thought this was pretty interesting..
Kopi’s doing Kopi things, Fiala is an offensive stud and surprised to see the metrics for Durzi and Walker.

 

[YP44]

Do you want to win or just watch exciting hockey?

They aren't the same thing. And you must not be remembering the impact made by Carter and Gaborik on teams that had their structure in place and acquired the right players at the right time to maximize their value AND that of the team.

The manner in which Fiala most resembles Palffy isn't on ice, it is in the acquisition. A terrific player added at a significant cost without fitting into a plan. Activity for sexy activity's sake. Fans pop at his skill, team goes nowhere because management is grasping at straws.

not sure if you are right person to respond to...but it is still crazy to me Palffy walked away from the game mid-season putting up a point per game for the pens, in Crosby's rookie year, with Lemieux back.

 

[kings11]

not sure if you are right person to respond to...but it is still crazy to me Palffy walked away from the game mid-season putting up a point per game for the pens, in Crosby's rookie year, with Lemieux back.

So here’s a bit of Ziggy Palffy trivia..
in his last season the the NHL while playing for the Pens…
Zigmund Palffy assisted on Super Mario’s last career goal and Sid the Kid’s first..

 

[King'sPawn]

That was certainly out of the ordinary, but remember the rules were different for COVID.

It was obvious why Byfield was there, he had nowhere else to go as the OHL was shut down.

Kupari and Helenius were overseas, the AHL is a much better developmental environment for players trying to make the NHL. You could argue that one either way, but bringing guys over as soon as they want to is pretty standard.

Faber was offered a NHL spot, wasn't he? The specifics are hazy but I don't remember them trying to get him in the AHL, but I could easily be wrong.

Turcotte, yes. But he did leave Wisconsin to go pro after they terminated the NCAA season due to the pandemic. It was the wrong choice obviously, but no one knew if there was even going to be a season for the NCAA. Turns out they started earlier than the AHL, but it was just guesswork at that point.

So the facts don't necessarily align, but there were a lot of extenuating circumstances there. It's difficult to say how things would have played out without the pandemic. I think odds are high that Turcotte stays in college, and I certainly think Byfield goes back to juniors based on what they've done with Clarke.

Re: Byfield - the year AFTER he played in the AHL due to COVID, the OHL allowed any player who played in the AHL to stay in there. The OHL was back up. Blake had the unique opportunity to send him down to the OHL, AHL, or keep him in the NHL. Heck... Byfield was technically eligible to go back to the OHL this year as an overager, that's just how young he is.

Re: Kupari and Helenius having better developmental opportunities in the AHL, but the question is, we're talking about the argument that Blake doesn't prioritize development. Which is the point of the post.

Faber was given an opportunity to play his first game against Minnesota in the NHL. Not that he'd be guaranteed an NHL spot henceforth. And with how they've kept Spence and Clarke down in lesser leagues to save a spot for Walker, Durzi, etc, do we REALLY think Faber would be playing in the NHL right now?

The point is that the prospect allocation decision isn't aligning with this assertion that Blake's not prioritizing prospect development. He's prioritizing it at the AHL level, trying to get them all to play in the farm team where they dictate the instruction. There are questions about HOW they're developing and if it's the right path, but I think it's inaccurate to suggest Blake's not focused on development and retaining prospect value.